The Pre-Snap Read: MSU vs Ohio State
By Jim Comparoni
EAST LANSING - If they are what I think they are, Michigan State had better not let them off the hook.
Ohio State is pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Buckeyes’ reputation. That gives Michigan State a chance to get huge credibility this weekend if the Spartans beat a good, not great, Ohio State team.
OSU is ranked No. 10, the lowest-ranked, one-loss FCS team in the country.
I can see why the playoff selection committee ranked OSU low. They don’t look good to the eye. If the AP were still the bellwether college football poll, the AP would probably mistakenly have OSU up around No. 5 or 6.
But OSU isn’t nearly that good. Or at least they haven’t been that good.
There’s a chance they could get their crap together and start playing like the national Top 5 team that they were supposed to be.
But when you get this late into the season, it’s hard to make those kind of mistake-fixing improvements. By November, you kind of are what you are, with a chance to polish what you’ve been. But when it comes to fixing some of the errors OSU has been making, well, I think some of the gap assignment sloppiness and coverage bust leaks are things that should have been seen and corrected in August during training camp and into the September proving grounds.
OSU has problems this year. The Buckeyes are worse than their record. They aren’t playing like Urban Meyer teams normally do in terms of defensive accountability and red zone execution. What’s the difference this year?
1. I can’t help but wonder about Meyer’s weeks-long absence during his August and September suspension. This team lacks quality control on defense and in the run game, and he’s Mr. Quality Control.
2. The run game lacks a run-threat QB. QB Haskins is a good passer from the pocket when he has time, and when moving to his right. But he’s not as good as his numbers. I seriously doubt that he will play in the NFL. I hate to say it, but quite often he plays like a coward. He’s unathletic and the lack of the QB keeper in OSU’s zone read option system is trying to function this year without the option element. They’ve been mediocre on the ground in the red zone because teams don’t have to worry about the QB pulling the ball and racing around the end.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
After getting embarrassed by Purdue, OSU went into a late-October bye week trying to fix red zone offense, fix their penchant for allowing big plays on defense, and improve their run game.
They achieved two of the three last week against Nebraska, establishing a ground game for the first time in weeks. Red zone offense improved. But OSU allowed 450 yards of offense, couldn’t stop the run and were one broken play away from getting into serious trouble against an improving, two-win Nebraska team led by a freshman QB … in Columbus.
OSU had trouble in pass defense against Purdue and Penn State, largely when playing man-to-man. I’ve talked about it on the podcasts and v-casts, OSU’s “ring around the rosies” defense when in man-to-man (Angelo Dundee boxing term). During the bye week, OSU obviously worked on off zone coverages and showed them extensively for the first time against Nebraska. But they continued to make mistakes.
OSU changed to include more off zone defenses after the bye week because they recognized what they were doing wasn’t working. But it’s late in the season to overhaul a pass defense. The pass defense looked like they were back in September mode because that’s essentially what they were doing in implementing mid-season changes.
Understand that OSU is not terrible. The Buckeyes are 8-1 and have put up offensive numbers approaching school record standards. But the numbers don’t mesh well with the eye test.
OSU has beaten only one team with a winning record, Penn State - and that was a back-from-the-dead miracle of sorts, having trailed by 13 with 7 minutes to play. The Buckeyes were blown out by Purdue. They struggled against sub-.500 teams Minnesota, Nebraska, TCU, Oregon State, Indiana.
I think OSU is similar in quality to the second tier of Big Ten teams this year. That tier includes Penn State, Purdue, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern. When these five teams play one another, it’s going to be close.
And Saturday’s game at Spartan Stadium should be close. There’s a chance Michigan State’s defense controls the proceedings, plays with fired-up energy, gains momentum, benefits from wind, cold and grass, and puts OSU in another situation where they are down two touchdowns and baffled in the fourth quarter - as was the case at Penn State and at Purdue.
And that’s if MSU’s quarterback situation remains merely mediocre. If MSU’s quarterback somehow harnesses the ability to play “plus” football, then Michigan State could put forth a comfortable, satisfying victory.
The biggest x-factor is MSU’s QB situation, followed closely by the Michigan State run game. We have no idea how the Michigan State QB, presumably Brian Lewerke, is going to play.
Lewerke was terrific last year as a sophomore, although not so good against Ohio State (going back over that game, Michigan State couldn’t run the ball, couldn’t pass protect and OSU’s DBs did a good job with tactical holding. Lewerke had one dropped pass go against him in the early going, and before long it was 21-0. OSU was very good last year, and played its best game of the season against Michigan State, one week after OSU was embarrassed at Iowa. THAT Ohio State team was disciplined enough to come back from an embarrassing loss at Iowa and make drastic improvements. I think we saw last week in OSU’s shaky victory over Nebraska that this OSU team doesn’t have the same type of glue and horsepower that last year’s Buckeyes had).
As for the Michigan State run game, it showed signs of life for the first time last week after a season of sputtering. That was against a failing Maryland defense that still somehow ranks No. 3 or 4 in the Big Ten in total defense.
OSU’s defense is not good. They have an athlete at d-end in No. 2 Chase Young. The defensive tackles are inconsistent. DT Draymont Jones gets a lot of publicity, but he is substandard when one-gapping or slanting vs zone double teams. He’s not firm vs. double teams. I wonder if he is playing hurt. His partner, No. 67 Landers, is worse, smallish and less athletic.
They aren’t terrible inside. But they aren’t as good as Purdue’s big Neal. They are about like Penn State inside.
A good running attack can get some yardage on the ground vs OSU. OSU is especially susceptible to runs on third-and-long when in the nickel defense when they bring five-star freshman No. 11 Tyreke Smith into the game. Smith is talented, but they put him at DT in the nickel defense, and he can be had by a run game when charging upfield on third-and-long. OSU has given up costly chunk plays on the ground on third-and-long to Purdue, Minnesota and Nebraska in each of its last three games. If Michigan State runs the ball on third-and-long, especially in four-down territory, realize that there is trend logic behind it.
Here’s the point: A good run game can do damage against OSU’s defense. But Michigan State does not have a good run game.
Does Michigan State have a decent run game, a respectable run game, after last week? Maybe. But I don’t know the answer, long-term. That’s why this is a big x-factor, along with Lewerke.
MSU’s run game is difficult to close the door on because the Spartans have had injuries on the o-line all year, but those injuries are subsiding a bit, and a level of continuity is starting to take hold. Starting to. Maybe. Hence the x-factor.
Michigan State is going with young, inexperienced RBs. When I say inexperienced, I mean a couple of guys who didn’t even play RB in high school. So they aren’t experienced at the art of setting up blocks or running with vision.
Combine the injury/continuity problems on the o-line with on-the-job training at RB, and Michigan State clearly has questions and issues in the run game, however there’s still an element of x-factor to this area because it’s possible that improvement and traction could take place at some point. Will it happen this week? I didn’t know if it would happen last week, and Michigan State rushed for 269 yards at Maryland.
**
So the big x-factor question for this game is this: Which areas will get their crap together first? MSU’s QB situation and run game? Or Ohio State’s leaky defense?
This is the type of question that is usually posed during a late-September or early-October game. When a team has severe questions such as this in mid-November, well, they probably aren’t playing for a championship.
That’s the case with Michigan State.
And that WOULD HAVE BEEN the case for Ohio State if the Buckeyes had played more than two decent Big Ten teams (Purdue and Penn State) by this time in the season. If OSU had played Northwestern, Iowa and Michigan in October, the Buckeyes would be hating life right now. They weren’t good enough to beat those teams back then. Are they good enough now? Not yet. Maybe that will change for them this weekend. It needs to.
**
As for the rest of it, MSU’s run defense will be very good in this game. OSU people point out that Michigan State led the nation in run defense last year prior to their meeting with OSU. SpartanMaggers can point out that I never thought MSU’s run defense last year was as good as its stats. But this year, the Michigan State run defense IS as good as it stats.
Michigan rushed successfully against Michigan State, but that was due largely to MSU’s offense being unable to sustain the ball and give the defense a break on the sideline.
This year MSU’s run defense is so much better at defensive end. MSU’s defensive tackles have gone from good to very good this year. Slot linebacker Andrew Dowell has gone from mediocre to good in run defense, plus he has help from Antjuan Simmons off the bench.
Joe Bachie in the middle had some shaky moments earlier in the year, but he has been back to all-conference level form in the past two weeks, both in terms of tackling, taking on blocks and getting the defense set.
MSU’s safeties were good against the run last year. Now Khari Willis is superb as a run support player.
The corners have been good in the past vs the run, whether it’s open-field tackling or taking on blocks on the edge. Now the corners, led by Ohioans Justin Layne, are superb in this area. I assume Josiah Scott is still good in this area but I didn’t watch him close in run defense against Maryland. It was his first game of the year. If I had 30 minutes right now to go back and zero in on him vs the run, I would. But I don’t have 30 minutes. Sorry about that.
* Meanwhile, OSU’s run game isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, because they don’t have the run threat at QB. O-line blocking hasn’t been as bad as everyone is making it out to be. Their o-line isn’t bad. They aren’t great, but they aren’t bad.
Four of their five o-linemen are similar in talent to Michigan or Penn State. However, OSU’s run game isn’t as varied as Michigan’s. OSU runs inside zone, a little bit of power to the left and right, and some outside zone. But they aren’t nearly as multiple (and therefore deceptive or unpredictable) in terms of who is pulling, who’s trapping (I haven’t seen a trap in the four games I’ve studied).
They have excellent RBs in Mike Weber and JK Dobbins. Very good quickness, acceleration, vision. They bounce out of tackles and can make game-breaking plays to the outside. You have to swarm and get them on the ground, something Michigan State did well against Purdue’s shape-shifter skill players, and Maryland’s ground attack.
Maryland’s run game is better than Ohio State’s in a lot of ways. But it’s hard to completely compare the two because Maryland has zero pass game threat.
I expect MSU’s run defense to gain redemption from last year’s nightmare and contain, if not stuff, OSU’s run game.
OSU’s run game was stuffed by Purdue. OSU went to the air 74 times.
Please realize that if a team goes to the air 74 times, and you give up 6 yards per pass attempt, you are playing winning football on defense. That adds up to 444 yards passing, but it’s winning football. Only two defenses in the Big Ten are allowing less than 6.0 yards per pass attempt: Michigan and Penn State.
The third best rate in the Big Ten in yards per pass attempt belongs to Maryland at 6.3. Over the course of 74 pass attempts, Maryland would allow 466 yards. That’s the third best rate in the conference.
So Michigan State could stop the run, force OSU to go to the air 50 times, and play winning football in pass defense while allowing 315 yards through the air (allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt). That’s Maryland’s rate, 6.3.
Michigan State is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt, which is tied for fourth in the conference with Iowa.
In short, OSU QB Dwayne Haskins has been putting up crazy numbers, but I don’t think he is as effective as the numbers indicate, and I think that will show itself against better teams.
If he throws 50 times, he’ll throw for more than 300 yards against Michigan State, but it might equate to a losing effort, punts, and frustration for OSU.
It’s hard to shut him down. But if he doesn’t have a run game, and if Michigan State disguises coverages well like TCU did (Michigan State is very capable of doing this), and if Michigan State can bring some blitzes up the middle and get him off the point, like Purdue did, he will get jumpy, throw early, and the offense will stall. He isn’t capable of pulling the ball and running. He doesn’t accelerate, doesn’t have speed and isn’t willing to use his size to take on tacklers. He runs scared. Seriously.
That’s been his and OSU’s mode of operation SO FAR. At this time last year I wrote a Pre-Snap Read about all of OSU’s weaknesses and warts after watching their game against Iowa. But that team had the fabric and talent to fix things almost overnight. This OSU team is TRYING to do that, but they don’t have the QB run game element, and they don’t have quality control on defense. Plus they lost three defensive end to the first four rounds of the NFL Draft.
Their LBs make gap errors and they don’t run as well, inside-out, as Ohio State LBs usually do.
They have a good cornerback in Arnett, but the other DBs are hot-and-cold. There have been injuries and shuffling in the secondary, but they expect to be back and healthy this week .That’s fine, but they need to get on the same page. The OSU defense lets receivers run loose and uncovered three or four times per game. They are talented, but the same-pageness is lacking.
OSU on defense LOOKS like an Ohio State defense for a play or two, but then they look like a John L. Smith defense once or twice a quarter.
Add the fact that their defensive tackles are merely decent, not quite good, when taking on double-teams vs the run inside, and it’s hard to make the boat float.
The numbers agree with the eye test.
While playing vs a crap schedule, OSU ranks No. 8 in the Big Ten in total defense (Michigan State is No. 3).
OSU is tied for second-worst in the Big Ten in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.6. Tied with Indiana. Only Illinois is worse. Rutgers is better for crying out loud.
OSU is tied for eighth in the Big Ten in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3).
And this is against a schedule that includes only two teams with winning records (Purdue and Penn State).
Ohio State has talented players. We all know that. So that makes OSU’s defense the most poorly-coached defense in the Big Ten, by far.
If it weren’t for their name and uniforms, you would think this team was like one of those Glen Mason Minnesota teams that would start out 7-1 and then fall back to the pack.
But this is Ohio State, with one of the best head coaches in modern football history. And their record still says they are 8-1, ranked No. 10 in the country.
The eye test tells me the Buckeyes are fool’s gold, not as good as their record, as mediocre as their stats.
But it’s hard to make that leap of faith to conclude that they actually are no better than Purdue, Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and … Michigan State.
On this topic, I agree with my Skull Session Podcast partner Ron Armstrong who points out that they still are Ohio State and they still win, and that counts for so much.
And that’s why this game is packed with as many doubts and variables as last week. Last week, I had no idea Brian Lewerke was going to start at QB, or that he would be as shaky as he was. The week before, I had no idea Rocky Lombardi would start at QB and do as well as he did. The whole season has been like a series of reality TV reveals, week after week.
In short, can MSU’s offense function against Ohio State? They had better be able to. Everyone else has.
The real question is whether OSU can get its crap together in time for a November renaissance? My thing over the years has been to never bet on trying to time the rise, bet on the body of work. The body of work suggests that OSU’s defense will continue to spring leaks until further notice.
Now add the weather factor. We’re hearing about gusts of 20 mph and temps in the 30s. That will hurt the passing attack. Which team does that hurt the most? Bad weather always helps the less-talented team, and that’s Michigan State.
That being said, will Michigan State be able to throw the ball in wind? You’ll find out when I do. Last week, in the wind, against a better pass defense than OSU’s, wasn’t pretty. But Michigan State was able to run the ball against a run defense that isn’t as good as OSU’s.
And remember what I say: OSU’s defense will look like an OSU defense for several plays, and you’ll wonder why anyone ever doubted them. Then look for the John L Smith breakdowns, followed by problems vs the run on inside plays.
**
Basically, weeks ago this was supposed to be a Big Ten East showdown game. Instead, it’s a game between a pair of good, not great, teams with plenty of inconsistencies and question marks.
The fact that these teams have struggled this year is emblematic of struggles throughout the Big Ten East. Aside from Michigan, the division has been a disappointment. Michigan State has had problems due to injury. I’ll accept no other reasoning. And if the Spartans win this game, and win a tough one at Nebraska next week and get to 9-3, then someone should bake Mark Dantonio a 109 cake. That would be a massive achievement, considering the injury plague they’ve had.
OHIO STATE THUS FAR
These are the teams OSU has beaten, and their records:
Oregon State 2-7
Rutgers 1-8
TCU 4-5
Tulane 4-5
Penn State 5-3
Indiana 4-5
Minnesota 4-5
Nebraska 2-7
Scores:
Ohio State 77, Oregon State 31
Ohio State 52, Rutgers 3
Ohio State 40, TCU 28
Ohio State 49, Tulane 6
TCU gave OSU trouble, but OSU had the firepower to hit the accelator and win by 12 points. But that game was very tight most of the way, with OSU’s problems with gap assignments in the front seven showing itself for the first time.
Ohio State 27, Penn State 26
OSU trailed 26-13 with six minutes to go. OSU popped of a somewhat lucky catch-and-run for a quick strike through missed tackles. Then OSU got a stop and drove for the game-winning TD. OSU basically only had two good drives in the entire game, and was getting clocked 13-0 late in the second quarter before a PSU fumble set up a short 25-yard TD drive and a 13-7 halftime lead.
PSU went back to dominating the third quarter.
OSU finished with 389 yards of total offense, 270 through the air, 119 on the ground.
OSU was 4-of-17 on third down.
Penn State was the better team, but choked it away. After the game PSU coach James Franklin went on an emotional rant, stating that his team was great but not yet elite.
Out-playing OSU made him think his team was great.
Now people are laughing at PSU for Franklin making that statement. PSU has lost to Michigan State and Michigan since then and nearly lost to Iowa. PSU isn’t great. But they they thought they were great when measuring themselves against OSU. As it turns out, OSU might not have been that great of a measuring stick, hence PSu’s inflated view of themselves.
Ohio State 49, Indiana 26
(halftime score: OSU 28, Indiana 20).
Ohio State 30, Minnesota 14
(halftime score: OSU 20, Minnesota 14.)
The score was 23-14 early in the fourth quarter. Minnesota missed two fourth quarter field goals or else it would have been 23-20 with 7 minutes to go.
OSU scored two late TDs.
Minnesota rushed for 178 and had 396 yards of total offense.
Purdue 49, Ohio State 20
OSU’s defensive problems vs Purdue are well-documented, and MSU’s offense isn’t quite the type that can replicate the things Purdue did to OSU.
So let’s focus on OSU’s offensive failures vs Purdue.
OSU’s biggest failure on offense was going 0-for-5 in the red zone in terms of TD conversions. A look at those red zone fails:
FIRST RED ZONE FAIL VS PURDUE
Play selection: Inside zone, outside zone, then INC on corner fade to the slot WR McLaurin. Haskins was late with the ball and threw behind him, giving the Purdue DB a chance to close and knock it away. Field goal cut Purdue’s lead to 7-3 early in the 2q.
SECOND FAIL
1st-and-10: Haskins INC on corner fade, WR Dixon was open. Haskins panicked in the face of a blitz threw too early, missed him.
2-10: toss sweep no gain.
3-10: Play action back shoulder to Victor, got knocked away. Catchable. Good pass. Victor drifted on it. Missed field goal. Score remained 7-3 late in the first half.
(Purdue hit a 30-yard pass on ensuing drive. Looked like OSU was trying to play cover-two. Left a guy wide open for a big play. Purdue later faked a field goal to keep drive alive, then scored a TD on a slot out in the final seconds of the first half to go up 14-3, and OSU officially had a fight on their hands).
THIRD FAIL
1-10: Jailbreak screen to short side to WR Campbell, Gain of 3.
2-7: WR swing to Dobbins gain of 1. LBs of Purdue watched film well and pursued and tackled.
3-6: Fade to WR Victor, incomplete off his finger tips. Field goal cut it to 14-6 with 12:20 to go in the third quarter.
[Purdue answered with TD drive, helped by a roughing the punter, then the sneak route to the TE for about 25 yards to the 1-yard line, the same play Purdue tried vs Michigan State which Tyriq Thompson blew up with the hit/INT.] Purdue leads 21-6 midway through the 3Q and the place is rocking.]
[Purdue’s TKO touchdown, leading 21-6, Purdue threw an INC on third down. Flag. Roughing the passer. Drive prolonged. Four plays later, RB Knox hit it up the middle for a 41-yard TD run on a third-and-nine trap vs nickel.] Remember: inside run play on third and long if No. 11 is at DT.
FOURTH
(trailing 21-6)
1-G at the 8: power right, Dobbins, gain of 4
2-3: Dobbins inside zone read, loss of 2. Lack of QB pull/run threat really hurts here. OLBs and safeties able to key the RB with no worries. Center Michael Jordan got “swam” by Purdue DT Neal.
3-4: WRs covered, QB tuck and run, gain of two. He’s not a runner.
4-2. OSU four WRs to the short side of the field. Jailbreak screen to WR Hill, INC. Not sure if the pass was knocked away or thrown too hot, but Hill didn’t finish that one.
FIFTH
I didn’t chart that one. Game was over.
Ohio State 36, Nebraska 31
(halftime score: Nebraska 21, Ohio State 16).
OSU led by 10 or so, most of the game. Nebraska scored a late TD to make it closer. OSU was the better team, but not by much. Nebraska had chances to pull the upset.
OSU’s edge in total yards was 481-450.
Haskins was inconsistent through the air, probably his worst game of the year. He wasn’t bad, at 18 of 32 for 252. But If he’s “only” going to throw for 252, OSU can’t afford to give up 450 to a 2-6 Nebraska team. And this was coming off a bye week and OSU trying to rebound from the Purdue embarrassment.
So that brings us to this week.
But first: What About Last Year?
LAST YEAR
Last year, OSU destroyed Michigan State 48-3. OSU could have scored 80. They called off the dogs, and I think Mark Dantonio respected that.
I went over last year’s game this week.
Some things I saw that don’t pertain to this year:
1. Michigan State had problems with OSU’s fast tempo. That was one of the few times we’ve seen Michigan State plagued by tempo. Michigan State was caught trying to adjust and communicate on defense when the ball was snapped. This led to late steps, false steps and gap tardiness or gaps being unfilled.
Michigan State probably had “too much” defensive volume “in” for this game. Too much film, too much recognition, too much knowledge, too many checks, too much communication, and they out-smarted themselves by being late to the point of attack vs OSU’s tempo.
2. On some big plays that got OSU rolling:
* D-end Demetrious Cooper didn’t stay home on a QB zone read keeper, gain of 10.
(Cooper has graduated. Michigan State is much better at his d-end position now. And OSU no longer runs zone read QB keepers).
* On a 47-yard TD, Raequan Williams was slanting from boundary A-gap to field A-gap. He got scooped out of the field A-gap and into the field b-gap. That left no one in the field A-gap. RB found that daylight. Fight song.
Raequan was good last year. He’s way better this year. OSU’s o-line was very good last year. Not so much this year. That particular breakdown on that TD ain’t happening this year. There might be breakdowns, but it’ll have to be different players, different combinations, and I think OSU will have difficulty finding those explosive combinations against MSU’s defense this time.
Also, Michigan State was caught in a corner blitz, with the single safety (Dowell) taking a false step toward a TE horizontal stretch route. Michigan State shot paper, OSU shot scissors AND Williams got carved out of his gap.
* Earlier in that drive, Kyonta Stallworth was the first DT off the bench and was consistently getting moved back a yard or two by double-teams. He wasn’t good enough last year. No one of Stallworth’s 2017 standard sees the field for Michigan State at d-tackle this year.
* OSU’s third-and-short tendency last year was the QB keeper. Very hard to stop. Last year on third-and-one, Michigan State loaded up for the QB keeper and OSU broke tendency by throwing a WR screen for 25 yards. Paper, scissors. Good call. But keying on the QB run won’t be something OSU can leverage this year.
* With Stallworth getting moved, and Jacob Panasiuk failing to set the edge ona third-and-one QB sweep, soon OSU scored again and went up 14-0 on a QB keeper.
* Tempo led to the aforementioned gap issues on the second and third TD drives. Soon it was 21-0. Good plan and execution by OSU.
OSU still goes no-huddle these days, but they don’t run fast tempo. Occasionally they will come to the line and snap quickly, but uptempo has not been part of their deal, at least in the last three or four games.
Could they go back to tempo for this game? They could. But that’s not what they’ve been.
I don’t expect last year’s tempo, last year’s QB run threat, or last year’s strong o-line play to carry over to this year’s meeting … at all.
Meanwhile MSU’s run defense is so much more grown up.
OSU will expect to splatter Michigan State on the ground, but they will fail in this part of the matchup.
**
It went to 28-0 when Michigan State had a bust on an RPO to the tight end for 13 yards, with Dowell and Willis wrongly in the same gap.
Then on a swing pass TD to RB Dobbins, linebacker Andrew Dowell was too-easily blocked by a WR. Bad on Dowell. Good on the OSU WR. OSU's WRs block very well and still do.
**
It went to 35-0 on an 82-yard TD run. Michigan State was in anything but the usual Narduzzi concept of defense on this play. Michigan State was playing to stop the pass first, and got ripped up the middle by the run.
OSU had two receivers to each side. In a stunning change of philosophy, Michigan State put three pass defenders to each side. That’s six pass defenders vs four receivers, with a giant opening in the middle of the field.
This left five Michigan State defenders in the box vs five offensive linemen. OSU just needed to get a hat on a hat, no one had to dominate anyone, and the RB had an 82-yard air tunnel to the end zone, and Michigan State was ready to quit at halftime.
Great gameplan by OSU, great use of tempo, and the QB run threat.
Tempo, QB run threat, o-line play … those are not part of this year’s matchup.
Last year won’t be repeated, unless it's by turnovers and special teams. The only impact last year will have on this game is the extra motivation Michigan State has to prove itself, and possibly a measure of over-confidence on OSU’s behalf.
THE BIG QUESTION:
I’m conflicted about Haskins. His numbers are sometimes outrageously good. He throws a nice ball, darts, strong arm, nice release. Big numbers.
But he looked ordinary last week against Nebraska, and on a per-pass basis, he wasn’t all that effective one game earlier against Purdue.
I didn’t think he looked that good against Minnesota, but you check the box score and he’s 33 of 44 for 412 yards. He threw for 400-plus in two straight games, matching Lewerke’s exploits of last year (including a 1-1 record in the two games).
Here’s the thing: In order for OSU to continue to win at a Top 10 clip, Haskins cannot be ordinary. OSU’s defense and run game are not good enough for the QB to merely be ordinary. They need him to be extraordinary.
He will have good moments against Michigan State and probably put up 300-plus yards of passing. But that might not be enough if Michigan State stuffs the run and gets decent play from the Michigan State quarterback and run game. If those things happen, this game will go down the wire. And that’s what I expect to happen, because I don’t think Haskins will be extraordinary in this game.
THE OSU PASS GAME
* OSU’s pass protection is pretty good. They rank No. 1 in the Big Ten in sacks allowed per pass attempt. However ...
Match-Up Alert:
Right tackle No. 59 Isaiah Prince (6-7, 310, Sr., Greenbelt, Md.) is faulty in pass pro. He’s a waist-bender, doesn’t move all that well and allowed three sacks to Minnesota, plus a holding penalty.
MSU’s Kenny Willekes will have success when at left d-end vs No. 59.
* When Haskins has time, he can sit back in the pocket and throw darts, aided by some nice, simple, tricky route combinations.
With most QBs, if you heat them up in the pocket, get them off their point, they’re not as good. Well, I think that’s really, really, really the case with Hoskins.
He throws okay when running to his right. Not so well when running to his left. He would rather not run at all. He doesn’t evacuate the pocket well to elongate plays. He doesn’t like to tuck and run. He runs scared, and slow. He’s not much of a threat to move the chains with the scramble. At all.
So if you heat him up, he’s not going to escape and beat you outside of the pocket with the run, and isn’t likely to do so with the freelance pass.
So if you can heat him up, make him move in the pocket, he can get frazzled. He tries to play too fast when seeing a blitz, he doesn’t hold the ball for an extra beat in order to take a hit to make a pass. He will instead throw it early and throw an INC on third down rather than take a hit.
FOX color analyst Brady Quinn: “If there’s one thing that’s been effective for Nebraska, it’s been pressure. Either Haskins hasn’t seen it at times or he has seen it and tightened up and made poor decisions.”
QB DWAYNE HASKINS (6-3, 218, Soph., Potomac, Md.)
* Completing 69 pct of his passes for an average of 339 yards a game, for 32 TDs and 6 INTs.
He is No. 3 in the nation in passing yards.
* Three of his INTS have come when getting pressured.
- Haskins was flat out inaccurate and telegraphed on INT in the end zone on the first drive of the 2H vs Nebraska. Simple off quarters zone and he stared it down.
* Five straight INCs midway through the second half kept Nebraska in it.
* He was hit pretty hard midway through the game, showed it on his face, and was even more hesitant than usual afterward to run the ball or take a hit to make a throw. He seriously played his worst game as a starter last week, his first time out after the loss to Purdue. He heard some boos when he slid early when vacating the pocket, during a tight game.
* As for QBs, I would rather have Clayton Thorson, Shae Patterson or Trace McSorley than Haskins.
* Strong arm, can make most of the throws. Accuracy has been good, not great, in recent games. I’m not sure about his touch into the cover-two hole. I saw him miss a couple against Minnesota but by the time I recognized that question mark I didn’t have time to chart more.
* Haskins panicked in the face of a blitz vs Purdue in the 2Q. Plays like a coward sometimes.
* INC on 3-10 vs Purdue when trailing 21-6, fearful of blitz, throwing off back foot.
* Was 8-of-11 vs Nebraska, and then drilled and fumbled and was 4 of his next 8 with a bad INT.
THE RECEIVERS
* The strength of their team is the depth of their receivers. Their offensive staff zings the receivers around in simple but effective combinations. Haskins has time to throw. He delivers darts if he has time. And they move the chains with 12-yard pass after 12-yard pass, and the stat sheet gets filled.
21 PARRIS CAMPBELL (6-1, 208, Sr, Akron)
* Fast guy, used in the slot. They use him on jet sweeps, bubble screens, RPO slants, RPO bubbles. Short passes for the catch-and-run, somewhat similar to the way Penn State uses KJ Hamler and Purdue uses Rondale Moore.
He is probably as fast as those guys, but not as agile.
Game Within The Game:
* They like Campbell on bubble screens with him as the No. 3 WR to the trips side. Looks simple, but the WRs block well and they churn out 8 to 10 yards with this on a regular basis. MSU’s CBs have traditionally been very good at defeating WR blocks on bubble screens . This will be a great game within the game, MSU’s CBs vs the blocks of OSU’s WRs to control the bubble screen game.
14 KJ Hill (6-0, 198, Jr., Little Rock, Ark.)
51 catches, 13.6 per, 4 TDs, 77 yards per game.
* Their best WR, in my opinion.
* Very good hands.
* Vertical threat from the post. foo
* Went to him on a short double-move out route on fourth-and-three vs Minnesota when OSU was trailing midway through the 2Q.
+ Good route combo for 36-yard TD on an out-and-up from the slot vs cover four. Made a one-handed catch on the run on a ball thrown behind him. A great catch made to look easy.
+ TD on slot skinny post for 26 yard TD into soft cover-four with two minutes to go.
+ Slant and go for about 45 yards late in the first half vs Purdue.
* He can stretch you vertically or horizontally, from the outside or slot.
1 Johnnie Dixon (5-11, 198, Sr., West Palm Beach)
26 catches, 14.6 per, 5 TDs, 42 yards per game.
(The fourth-leading receiver, Austin Mack, from Fort Wayne, is out with an injury)
83 Terry McLaurin (6-1, 204, Sr., Indianapolis)
21 catches, 19.0 per, 8 TDs, 44 yards per.
* Legit fly route deep threat that they don’t throw to all that much.
- Was open by two steps on deep go route vs Purdue in the 1q but Haskins overthrew him.
* Vs Minnesota: two plays after a weak Haskins scramble for a gain of 1 on third-and-three, he found McLaurin deep on a post for a 50-yard TD and a 10-3 lead.
RBs Dobbins (16 catches) and Mike Weber (15 catches) rank sixth and seventh on the team in receptions. OSU RBs average 47 yards receiving per game.
9 Binjimen Victor (6-4, 200, Jr., Pompano Beach,Fla.)
15 catches, 16.4 per catch, 3 TDs, 27 yards per game.
- Dropped a shallow crosser in 2Q vs Minnesota.
- Failed to haul in a difficult catch in the end zone vs Purdue, one of OSU’s five red zone fails in that game.
* Was supposed to be great when he was younger but hasn’t panned out.
89 TE LUKE FARRELL (6-6, 250, Soph., Perry, Ohio)
* He has 12 catches on the year, with most of them coming in the last two or three weeks.
* Four catches vs Purdue, his best game of the year.
* Functional TE, not all that athletic. * They went to him on FIB during a key drive in the 4q vs Minnesota for about 20 yards, schemed him open, had him pass set out to the flat then release late on a wheel. FIB means formation to the boundary with three receivers packed to the short side of the field.
+ They threw to him on a third-and-two counter boot drag for about 10 yards with 3 minutes to go vs Minnesota.
+ 10-yard catch on third and six over the middle on sit down in 2q vs Purdue.
THE RUN GAME
You know all about Weber and Dobbins.
Dobbins (5-10, 212, Soph., Grad Prairie, TX) has 684 yards, averaging 4.8 per and 76 yards per game.
Weber (5-10, 214, Jr., Detroit) has 607 yards, 5.8 per and 65 yards per game.
Weber fumbled two or three times last week, I lost count. I think OSU recovered all of them.
O-LINE
* As I said, they are similar in talent to Michigan, but not as varied, and weaker at RT in pass pro.
Not a dominant o-line. Line was criticized earlier in the year, but I don’t think they’re bad. Probably not an apt scapegoat. They are merely good. But I think Michigan State wins the matchup in the trenches when OSU has the ball.
OSU has been crafty in its ability to run the ball wide with outside zones and sweeps, and incorporate bubble screens to take the game outside the phone booth in the past against Michigan State. They will probably try that again.
* OSU tried desperately to establish the run last week after early-season struggles, and ran it the first four plays after Nebraska took a 7-0 lead. OSU was stopped on third-and-1 (jet sweep, tight end missed a block) and fourth-and-two (inside zone out of the pistol; Nebraska switched from two-gapping to one-gapping on that play, OSU didn’t seem to identify things right, didn’t get a double-team, played with high pad level, had no push, and got stuffed).
* OSU was stopped on fourth and short in four consecutive games vs Tulane, Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota. Against Purdue, trailing 21-6 with 14:50 to play PUNTED on fourth-and-one at own 30-yard line. No confidence in run game.
OSU’s AVERAGE PER CARRY
7.8 yards per carry vs Oregon State
5.6 vs Rutgers
4.3 vs Tcu
3.9 vs Tulane
3.2 vs PSU
3.2 vs Indiana
2.8 vs Minnesota
3.0 vs Purdue
5.7 vs Nebraska, (229 on 40 carries)
OHIO STATE DEFENSE
* Ranks No. 8 in the Big Ten in total defense.
* Has allowed 15 plays of 40 yards or more, including two last week. Allowed only 5 last year.
* Nick Bosa was possibly the best d-end in the country. He was injured earlier in the year and opted to sit out the rest of the season in order to get ready for the NFL Draft.
Bosa was a huge difference-maker in last year’s Michigan State-OSU game. Michigan State flat-out couldn’t block him.
* OSU lost three d-ends from last year’s team to the first four rounds of the NFL Draft.
* They are trying to reload on the d-line but aren’t quite there, and aren’t nearly where they were in 2014 for the National Championship year.
* Still, OSU ranks No. 3 in the Big Ten in sacks per game at 3.0. (Penn State and Michigan lead the Big Ten at 3.2 sacks per game).
[Michigan sacked Michigan State four times, with two coming on the final drive against Rocky Lombardi.]
[Penn State sacked Michigan State three times.]
The trend suggests that Ohio State will get its three sacks against Michigan State, too.
* OSU D-ends are good, not yet great. Stunts are pretty quick. Pass rush is similar to Penn State’s in talent and effectiveness. That means they’re pretty good.
2 DE Chase Young (6-5, 265, Soph., Upper Marlboro, Md)
* 4.5 sacks
* He has a bright future. Very talented. Montez Sweat type.
* Tall, rangy, explosive athlete.
* Good with inside stunts on the pass rush, moves like Montez Sweat.
+ Has good strength on his counter moves. He’s not done when he counters.
86 DT Draymont Jones (6-3, 290, Cleveland)
* Jones has 6.5 sacks and was supposed to be the superstar of this d-line after Bosa was lost. He hasn’t been all that noticeably in the last two or three games and I’ve seen him getting swept off the point vs double teams, especially when he is slanting or one-gapping.
* When he’s right, he can get upfield quickly when slanting on the pass rush, with a good arm-over.
* Quick with his hands, with the arm-over or shoulder club to cross your face and penetrate the backfield.
67 DT Robert Landers (6-1, 283, Jr., Dayton Huber Heights Wayne)
* He starts and isn’t all that good for an OSU starter. He might be as good as Gerald Owens.
* He has two TFLs on the year. I honestly think he would be third string if he played for Michigan State. A decent ground attack can move him with a double-team.
18 DE JONATHON COOPER (6-4, 257, Jr., Gahanna, Ohio)
* I haven’t witnessed him do anything noteworthy. Has 1.5 sacks and 4.0 TFLs on the year.
LINEBACKERS
* ILBs don’t run all that well and make too many gap errors. That’s No. 32 Tuf Borland (6-1, 230, Soph., Bolingbrook, Ill.) and No. 39 Malik Harrison (6-3, 240, Jr. Columbus).
- Harrison incorrectly took on a block on second-and-goal last week, false-stepped, wrong-shouldered it, was swept downstream and the play nearly went for a red zone TD.
I could give more examples but I need to finish this.
DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD
* Good talent back here, but the whole is not as good as the sum of the parts. In other words, they don’t always play well together. Lots of miscommunications. Will that continue? If so, OSU will continue to play with upset fire.
* They mixed in more off-zone coverage last week than in previous games. Their tight man-to-man was burned by Purdue and Penn State (especially Penn State with the QB keeper vs man-to-man).
OSU played cover three against Minnesota and sometimes vs Purdue, showing press and then bailing. Last week, they went with more off coverage at pre-snap. The results were mixed. They’re trying something new and at times it looked like a bunch of guys trying something new.
example:
8 CB Kendall Sheffield (6-0, 193, Jr., Missouri City, TX):
- Carried zone too deep on cover three on third-and-8 in 2q at edge of the red zone with 6:21 to play in the first half. Probably wasn’t supposed to sink that deep, but it’s new.
- In zone, he lost contact with WR Stanley Morgan on third-and-long deep pass in the fourth quarter, let Nebraska back in the game.
14 CB Isaiah Pryor (6-2, 197, Soph., Lawrenceville, Ga.)
* He had been a starter all year but is now behind Wade (former CB) and White (former second-stringer). He is now third-string.
- Pryor missed a tackle on an out route which turned into a 29-yard play late in the 1Q vs Minnesota.
S 4 JORDAN FULLER (6-2, 204, Jr., Norwood, NJ)
+ Good tackler, Real nice, firm sweep tackle at goal line vs Minnesota to save a TD and set up third-and-goal.
S 25 BRENDAN WHITE (6-2, 210, Soph. Powell, Ohio)
* 25 too thin of a tackling angle on a bubble screen in 2Q vs Nebraska, gain of 12.
* He has very good speed, though. He played in the 2q last week after starter Jordan Fuller was lost to a first half targeting penalty.
3 CB Damon Arnett (6-0, 195, Jr., Fort Lauderdale)
* Good player. Was good with tactical holding last year, but I haven’t seen as much of that from OSU this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS NOTE
OSU is No. 3 in the Big Ten in punting, Michigan State is No. 13. Punt exchanges in a defensive struggle on a windy day could yield a 100-yard advantage for OSU in hidden yardage. Maryland’s two scoring opportunities last week were both delivered by poor Michigan State punts.
OSU is 8 of 11 on field goals. Michigan State is 12 of 13.
ADD IT ALL UP
I like Michigan State to stop the run and contain the pass for most of the day, maybe all day.
Michigan State will vary its coverages. Haskins can be confused.
Michigan State is pretty good at springing freak coverages on you, on third downs in the second half. Michigan State also has done a decent job of incorporating well-timed blitzes, and not the same old blitz combinations every time.
Michigan State will try to move Haskins off his point. I think Michigan State will have some success with this.
Haskins USUALLY throws for about 350 yards. I think there’s a better chance that he will have a frustrating day than exceed his average. Weather will make it that much harder for Haskins to do his thing.
I think Michigan State will stop the OSU run, and maybe stifle it.
If Michigan State can move the ball at all on offense, rather than giving it right back to the opponent as was the case in the Michigan game, then I think Michigan State has a good chance to hold OSU under 20 points.
Can Michigan State score 20? This is the x-factor matchup. MSU’s enigmatic QB situation and Elf on the Shelf run game against Ohio State’s talented John L Smith defense. I have no idea what that matchup will yield.
You’ve watched MSU’s QB situation and run game. Your guess is as good as mine on that one. Realize that OSU’s run defense and pass defense are good at times, but talented/inconsistent/unreliable.
Upset situation in cold conditions on the grass will make for an uncomfortable challenge for Haskins and OSU. Whether or not Michigan State has the QB punch to finish, I don’t know. Michigan State might need to be up by 10 or more with six minutes to go, and that’s possible.
As for a prediction, I don’t do that. If I do a prediction, that’s all anyone will remember. I’ll leave it to the reader to parse through the research and formulate their own forecast.
By Jim Comparoni
EAST LANSING - If they are what I think they are, Michigan State had better not let them off the hook.
Ohio State is pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Buckeyes’ reputation. That gives Michigan State a chance to get huge credibility this weekend if the Spartans beat a good, not great, Ohio State team.
OSU is ranked No. 10, the lowest-ranked, one-loss FCS team in the country.
I can see why the playoff selection committee ranked OSU low. They don’t look good to the eye. If the AP were still the bellwether college football poll, the AP would probably mistakenly have OSU up around No. 5 or 6.
But OSU isn’t nearly that good. Or at least they haven’t been that good.
There’s a chance they could get their crap together and start playing like the national Top 5 team that they were supposed to be.
But when you get this late into the season, it’s hard to make those kind of mistake-fixing improvements. By November, you kind of are what you are, with a chance to polish what you’ve been. But when it comes to fixing some of the errors OSU has been making, well, I think some of the gap assignment sloppiness and coverage bust leaks are things that should have been seen and corrected in August during training camp and into the September proving grounds.
OSU has problems this year. The Buckeyes are worse than their record. They aren’t playing like Urban Meyer teams normally do in terms of defensive accountability and red zone execution. What’s the difference this year?
1. I can’t help but wonder about Meyer’s weeks-long absence during his August and September suspension. This team lacks quality control on defense and in the run game, and he’s Mr. Quality Control.
2. The run game lacks a run-threat QB. QB Haskins is a good passer from the pocket when he has time, and when moving to his right. But he’s not as good as his numbers. I seriously doubt that he will play in the NFL. I hate to say it, but quite often he plays like a coward. He’s unathletic and the lack of the QB keeper in OSU’s zone read option system is trying to function this year without the option element. They’ve been mediocre on the ground in the red zone because teams don’t have to worry about the QB pulling the ball and racing around the end.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
After getting embarrassed by Purdue, OSU went into a late-October bye week trying to fix red zone offense, fix their penchant for allowing big plays on defense, and improve their run game.
They achieved two of the three last week against Nebraska, establishing a ground game for the first time in weeks. Red zone offense improved. But OSU allowed 450 yards of offense, couldn’t stop the run and were one broken play away from getting into serious trouble against an improving, two-win Nebraska team led by a freshman QB … in Columbus.
OSU had trouble in pass defense against Purdue and Penn State, largely when playing man-to-man. I’ve talked about it on the podcasts and v-casts, OSU’s “ring around the rosies” defense when in man-to-man (Angelo Dundee boxing term). During the bye week, OSU obviously worked on off zone coverages and showed them extensively for the first time against Nebraska. But they continued to make mistakes.
OSU changed to include more off zone defenses after the bye week because they recognized what they were doing wasn’t working. But it’s late in the season to overhaul a pass defense. The pass defense looked like they were back in September mode because that’s essentially what they were doing in implementing mid-season changes.
Understand that OSU is not terrible. The Buckeyes are 8-1 and have put up offensive numbers approaching school record standards. But the numbers don’t mesh well with the eye test.
OSU has beaten only one team with a winning record, Penn State - and that was a back-from-the-dead miracle of sorts, having trailed by 13 with 7 minutes to play. The Buckeyes were blown out by Purdue. They struggled against sub-.500 teams Minnesota, Nebraska, TCU, Oregon State, Indiana.
I think OSU is similar in quality to the second tier of Big Ten teams this year. That tier includes Penn State, Purdue, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern. When these five teams play one another, it’s going to be close.
And Saturday’s game at Spartan Stadium should be close. There’s a chance Michigan State’s defense controls the proceedings, plays with fired-up energy, gains momentum, benefits from wind, cold and grass, and puts OSU in another situation where they are down two touchdowns and baffled in the fourth quarter - as was the case at Penn State and at Purdue.
And that’s if MSU’s quarterback situation remains merely mediocre. If MSU’s quarterback somehow harnesses the ability to play “plus” football, then Michigan State could put forth a comfortable, satisfying victory.
The biggest x-factor is MSU’s QB situation, followed closely by the Michigan State run game. We have no idea how the Michigan State QB, presumably Brian Lewerke, is going to play.
Lewerke was terrific last year as a sophomore, although not so good against Ohio State (going back over that game, Michigan State couldn’t run the ball, couldn’t pass protect and OSU’s DBs did a good job with tactical holding. Lewerke had one dropped pass go against him in the early going, and before long it was 21-0. OSU was very good last year, and played its best game of the season against Michigan State, one week after OSU was embarrassed at Iowa. THAT Ohio State team was disciplined enough to come back from an embarrassing loss at Iowa and make drastic improvements. I think we saw last week in OSU’s shaky victory over Nebraska that this OSU team doesn’t have the same type of glue and horsepower that last year’s Buckeyes had).
As for the Michigan State run game, it showed signs of life for the first time last week after a season of sputtering. That was against a failing Maryland defense that still somehow ranks No. 3 or 4 in the Big Ten in total defense.
OSU’s defense is not good. They have an athlete at d-end in No. 2 Chase Young. The defensive tackles are inconsistent. DT Draymont Jones gets a lot of publicity, but he is substandard when one-gapping or slanting vs zone double teams. He’s not firm vs. double teams. I wonder if he is playing hurt. His partner, No. 67 Landers, is worse, smallish and less athletic.
They aren’t terrible inside. But they aren’t as good as Purdue’s big Neal. They are about like Penn State inside.
A good running attack can get some yardage on the ground vs OSU. OSU is especially susceptible to runs on third-and-long when in the nickel defense when they bring five-star freshman No. 11 Tyreke Smith into the game. Smith is talented, but they put him at DT in the nickel defense, and he can be had by a run game when charging upfield on third-and-long. OSU has given up costly chunk plays on the ground on third-and-long to Purdue, Minnesota and Nebraska in each of its last three games. If Michigan State runs the ball on third-and-long, especially in four-down territory, realize that there is trend logic behind it.
Here’s the point: A good run game can do damage against OSU’s defense. But Michigan State does not have a good run game.
Does Michigan State have a decent run game, a respectable run game, after last week? Maybe. But I don’t know the answer, long-term. That’s why this is a big x-factor, along with Lewerke.
MSU’s run game is difficult to close the door on because the Spartans have had injuries on the o-line all year, but those injuries are subsiding a bit, and a level of continuity is starting to take hold. Starting to. Maybe. Hence the x-factor.
Michigan State is going with young, inexperienced RBs. When I say inexperienced, I mean a couple of guys who didn’t even play RB in high school. So they aren’t experienced at the art of setting up blocks or running with vision.
Combine the injury/continuity problems on the o-line with on-the-job training at RB, and Michigan State clearly has questions and issues in the run game, however there’s still an element of x-factor to this area because it’s possible that improvement and traction could take place at some point. Will it happen this week? I didn’t know if it would happen last week, and Michigan State rushed for 269 yards at Maryland.
**
So the big x-factor question for this game is this: Which areas will get their crap together first? MSU’s QB situation and run game? Or Ohio State’s leaky defense?
This is the type of question that is usually posed during a late-September or early-October game. When a team has severe questions such as this in mid-November, well, they probably aren’t playing for a championship.
That’s the case with Michigan State.
And that WOULD HAVE BEEN the case for Ohio State if the Buckeyes had played more than two decent Big Ten teams (Purdue and Penn State) by this time in the season. If OSU had played Northwestern, Iowa and Michigan in October, the Buckeyes would be hating life right now. They weren’t good enough to beat those teams back then. Are they good enough now? Not yet. Maybe that will change for them this weekend. It needs to.
**
As for the rest of it, MSU’s run defense will be very good in this game. OSU people point out that Michigan State led the nation in run defense last year prior to their meeting with OSU. SpartanMaggers can point out that I never thought MSU’s run defense last year was as good as its stats. But this year, the Michigan State run defense IS as good as it stats.
Michigan rushed successfully against Michigan State, but that was due largely to MSU’s offense being unable to sustain the ball and give the defense a break on the sideline.
This year MSU’s run defense is so much better at defensive end. MSU’s defensive tackles have gone from good to very good this year. Slot linebacker Andrew Dowell has gone from mediocre to good in run defense, plus he has help from Antjuan Simmons off the bench.
Joe Bachie in the middle had some shaky moments earlier in the year, but he has been back to all-conference level form in the past two weeks, both in terms of tackling, taking on blocks and getting the defense set.
MSU’s safeties were good against the run last year. Now Khari Willis is superb as a run support player.
The corners have been good in the past vs the run, whether it’s open-field tackling or taking on blocks on the edge. Now the corners, led by Ohioans Justin Layne, are superb in this area. I assume Josiah Scott is still good in this area but I didn’t watch him close in run defense against Maryland. It was his first game of the year. If I had 30 minutes right now to go back and zero in on him vs the run, I would. But I don’t have 30 minutes. Sorry about that.
* Meanwhile, OSU’s run game isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, because they don’t have the run threat at QB. O-line blocking hasn’t been as bad as everyone is making it out to be. Their o-line isn’t bad. They aren’t great, but they aren’t bad.
Four of their five o-linemen are similar in talent to Michigan or Penn State. However, OSU’s run game isn’t as varied as Michigan’s. OSU runs inside zone, a little bit of power to the left and right, and some outside zone. But they aren’t nearly as multiple (and therefore deceptive or unpredictable) in terms of who is pulling, who’s trapping (I haven’t seen a trap in the four games I’ve studied).
They have excellent RBs in Mike Weber and JK Dobbins. Very good quickness, acceleration, vision. They bounce out of tackles and can make game-breaking plays to the outside. You have to swarm and get them on the ground, something Michigan State did well against Purdue’s shape-shifter skill players, and Maryland’s ground attack.
Maryland’s run game is better than Ohio State’s in a lot of ways. But it’s hard to completely compare the two because Maryland has zero pass game threat.
I expect MSU’s run defense to gain redemption from last year’s nightmare and contain, if not stuff, OSU’s run game.
OSU’s run game was stuffed by Purdue. OSU went to the air 74 times.
Please realize that if a team goes to the air 74 times, and you give up 6 yards per pass attempt, you are playing winning football on defense. That adds up to 444 yards passing, but it’s winning football. Only two defenses in the Big Ten are allowing less than 6.0 yards per pass attempt: Michigan and Penn State.
The third best rate in the Big Ten in yards per pass attempt belongs to Maryland at 6.3. Over the course of 74 pass attempts, Maryland would allow 466 yards. That’s the third best rate in the conference.
So Michigan State could stop the run, force OSU to go to the air 50 times, and play winning football in pass defense while allowing 315 yards through the air (allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt). That’s Maryland’s rate, 6.3.
Michigan State is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt, which is tied for fourth in the conference with Iowa.
In short, OSU QB Dwayne Haskins has been putting up crazy numbers, but I don’t think he is as effective as the numbers indicate, and I think that will show itself against better teams.
If he throws 50 times, he’ll throw for more than 300 yards against Michigan State, but it might equate to a losing effort, punts, and frustration for OSU.
It’s hard to shut him down. But if he doesn’t have a run game, and if Michigan State disguises coverages well like TCU did (Michigan State is very capable of doing this), and if Michigan State can bring some blitzes up the middle and get him off the point, like Purdue did, he will get jumpy, throw early, and the offense will stall. He isn’t capable of pulling the ball and running. He doesn’t accelerate, doesn’t have speed and isn’t willing to use his size to take on tacklers. He runs scared. Seriously.
That’s been his and OSU’s mode of operation SO FAR. At this time last year I wrote a Pre-Snap Read about all of OSU’s weaknesses and warts after watching their game against Iowa. But that team had the fabric and talent to fix things almost overnight. This OSU team is TRYING to do that, but they don’t have the QB run game element, and they don’t have quality control on defense. Plus they lost three defensive end to the first four rounds of the NFL Draft.
Their LBs make gap errors and they don’t run as well, inside-out, as Ohio State LBs usually do.
They have a good cornerback in Arnett, but the other DBs are hot-and-cold. There have been injuries and shuffling in the secondary, but they expect to be back and healthy this week .That’s fine, but they need to get on the same page. The OSU defense lets receivers run loose and uncovered three or four times per game. They are talented, but the same-pageness is lacking.
OSU on defense LOOKS like an Ohio State defense for a play or two, but then they look like a John L. Smith defense once or twice a quarter.
Add the fact that their defensive tackles are merely decent, not quite good, when taking on double-teams vs the run inside, and it’s hard to make the boat float.
The numbers agree with the eye test.
While playing vs a crap schedule, OSU ranks No. 8 in the Big Ten in total defense (Michigan State is No. 3).
OSU is tied for second-worst in the Big Ten in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.6. Tied with Indiana. Only Illinois is worse. Rutgers is better for crying out loud.
OSU is tied for eighth in the Big Ten in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3).
And this is against a schedule that includes only two teams with winning records (Purdue and Penn State).
Ohio State has talented players. We all know that. So that makes OSU’s defense the most poorly-coached defense in the Big Ten, by far.
If it weren’t for their name and uniforms, you would think this team was like one of those Glen Mason Minnesota teams that would start out 7-1 and then fall back to the pack.
But this is Ohio State, with one of the best head coaches in modern football history. And their record still says they are 8-1, ranked No. 10 in the country.
The eye test tells me the Buckeyes are fool’s gold, not as good as their record, as mediocre as their stats.
But it’s hard to make that leap of faith to conclude that they actually are no better than Purdue, Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and … Michigan State.
On this topic, I agree with my Skull Session Podcast partner Ron Armstrong who points out that they still are Ohio State and they still win, and that counts for so much.
And that’s why this game is packed with as many doubts and variables as last week. Last week, I had no idea Brian Lewerke was going to start at QB, or that he would be as shaky as he was. The week before, I had no idea Rocky Lombardi would start at QB and do as well as he did. The whole season has been like a series of reality TV reveals, week after week.
In short, can MSU’s offense function against Ohio State? They had better be able to. Everyone else has.
The real question is whether OSU can get its crap together in time for a November renaissance? My thing over the years has been to never bet on trying to time the rise, bet on the body of work. The body of work suggests that OSU’s defense will continue to spring leaks until further notice.
Now add the weather factor. We’re hearing about gusts of 20 mph and temps in the 30s. That will hurt the passing attack. Which team does that hurt the most? Bad weather always helps the less-talented team, and that’s Michigan State.
That being said, will Michigan State be able to throw the ball in wind? You’ll find out when I do. Last week, in the wind, against a better pass defense than OSU’s, wasn’t pretty. But Michigan State was able to run the ball against a run defense that isn’t as good as OSU’s.
And remember what I say: OSU’s defense will look like an OSU defense for several plays, and you’ll wonder why anyone ever doubted them. Then look for the John L Smith breakdowns, followed by problems vs the run on inside plays.
**
Basically, weeks ago this was supposed to be a Big Ten East showdown game. Instead, it’s a game between a pair of good, not great, teams with plenty of inconsistencies and question marks.
The fact that these teams have struggled this year is emblematic of struggles throughout the Big Ten East. Aside from Michigan, the division has been a disappointment. Michigan State has had problems due to injury. I’ll accept no other reasoning. And if the Spartans win this game, and win a tough one at Nebraska next week and get to 9-3, then someone should bake Mark Dantonio a 109 cake. That would be a massive achievement, considering the injury plague they’ve had.
OHIO STATE THUS FAR
These are the teams OSU has beaten, and their records:
Oregon State 2-7
Rutgers 1-8
TCU 4-5
Tulane 4-5
Penn State 5-3
Indiana 4-5
Minnesota 4-5
Nebraska 2-7
Scores:
Ohio State 77, Oregon State 31
Ohio State 52, Rutgers 3
Ohio State 40, TCU 28
Ohio State 49, Tulane 6
TCU gave OSU trouble, but OSU had the firepower to hit the accelator and win by 12 points. But that game was very tight most of the way, with OSU’s problems with gap assignments in the front seven showing itself for the first time.
Ohio State 27, Penn State 26
OSU trailed 26-13 with six minutes to go. OSU popped of a somewhat lucky catch-and-run for a quick strike through missed tackles. Then OSU got a stop and drove for the game-winning TD. OSU basically only had two good drives in the entire game, and was getting clocked 13-0 late in the second quarter before a PSU fumble set up a short 25-yard TD drive and a 13-7 halftime lead.
PSU went back to dominating the third quarter.
OSU finished with 389 yards of total offense, 270 through the air, 119 on the ground.
OSU was 4-of-17 on third down.
Penn State was the better team, but choked it away. After the game PSU coach James Franklin went on an emotional rant, stating that his team was great but not yet elite.
Out-playing OSU made him think his team was great.
Now people are laughing at PSU for Franklin making that statement. PSU has lost to Michigan State and Michigan since then and nearly lost to Iowa. PSU isn’t great. But they they thought they were great when measuring themselves against OSU. As it turns out, OSU might not have been that great of a measuring stick, hence PSu’s inflated view of themselves.
Ohio State 49, Indiana 26
(halftime score: OSU 28, Indiana 20).
Ohio State 30, Minnesota 14
(halftime score: OSU 20, Minnesota 14.)
The score was 23-14 early in the fourth quarter. Minnesota missed two fourth quarter field goals or else it would have been 23-20 with 7 minutes to go.
OSU scored two late TDs.
Minnesota rushed for 178 and had 396 yards of total offense.
Purdue 49, Ohio State 20
OSU’s defensive problems vs Purdue are well-documented, and MSU’s offense isn’t quite the type that can replicate the things Purdue did to OSU.
So let’s focus on OSU’s offensive failures vs Purdue.
OSU’s biggest failure on offense was going 0-for-5 in the red zone in terms of TD conversions. A look at those red zone fails:
FIRST RED ZONE FAIL VS PURDUE
Play selection: Inside zone, outside zone, then INC on corner fade to the slot WR McLaurin. Haskins was late with the ball and threw behind him, giving the Purdue DB a chance to close and knock it away. Field goal cut Purdue’s lead to 7-3 early in the 2q.
SECOND FAIL
1st-and-10: Haskins INC on corner fade, WR Dixon was open. Haskins panicked in the face of a blitz threw too early, missed him.
2-10: toss sweep no gain.
3-10: Play action back shoulder to Victor, got knocked away. Catchable. Good pass. Victor drifted on it. Missed field goal. Score remained 7-3 late in the first half.
(Purdue hit a 30-yard pass on ensuing drive. Looked like OSU was trying to play cover-two. Left a guy wide open for a big play. Purdue later faked a field goal to keep drive alive, then scored a TD on a slot out in the final seconds of the first half to go up 14-3, and OSU officially had a fight on their hands).
THIRD FAIL
1-10: Jailbreak screen to short side to WR Campbell, Gain of 3.
2-7: WR swing to Dobbins gain of 1. LBs of Purdue watched film well and pursued and tackled.
3-6: Fade to WR Victor, incomplete off his finger tips. Field goal cut it to 14-6 with 12:20 to go in the third quarter.
[Purdue answered with TD drive, helped by a roughing the punter, then the sneak route to the TE for about 25 yards to the 1-yard line, the same play Purdue tried vs Michigan State which Tyriq Thompson blew up with the hit/INT.] Purdue leads 21-6 midway through the 3Q and the place is rocking.]
[Purdue’s TKO touchdown, leading 21-6, Purdue threw an INC on third down. Flag. Roughing the passer. Drive prolonged. Four plays later, RB Knox hit it up the middle for a 41-yard TD run on a third-and-nine trap vs nickel.] Remember: inside run play on third and long if No. 11 is at DT.
FOURTH
(trailing 21-6)
1-G at the 8: power right, Dobbins, gain of 4
2-3: Dobbins inside zone read, loss of 2. Lack of QB pull/run threat really hurts here. OLBs and safeties able to key the RB with no worries. Center Michael Jordan got “swam” by Purdue DT Neal.
3-4: WRs covered, QB tuck and run, gain of two. He’s not a runner.
4-2. OSU four WRs to the short side of the field. Jailbreak screen to WR Hill, INC. Not sure if the pass was knocked away or thrown too hot, but Hill didn’t finish that one.
FIFTH
I didn’t chart that one. Game was over.
Ohio State 36, Nebraska 31
(halftime score: Nebraska 21, Ohio State 16).
OSU led by 10 or so, most of the game. Nebraska scored a late TD to make it closer. OSU was the better team, but not by much. Nebraska had chances to pull the upset.
OSU’s edge in total yards was 481-450.
Haskins was inconsistent through the air, probably his worst game of the year. He wasn’t bad, at 18 of 32 for 252. But If he’s “only” going to throw for 252, OSU can’t afford to give up 450 to a 2-6 Nebraska team. And this was coming off a bye week and OSU trying to rebound from the Purdue embarrassment.
So that brings us to this week.
But first: What About Last Year?
LAST YEAR
Last year, OSU destroyed Michigan State 48-3. OSU could have scored 80. They called off the dogs, and I think Mark Dantonio respected that.
I went over last year’s game this week.
Some things I saw that don’t pertain to this year:
1. Michigan State had problems with OSU’s fast tempo. That was one of the few times we’ve seen Michigan State plagued by tempo. Michigan State was caught trying to adjust and communicate on defense when the ball was snapped. This led to late steps, false steps and gap tardiness or gaps being unfilled.
Michigan State probably had “too much” defensive volume “in” for this game. Too much film, too much recognition, too much knowledge, too many checks, too much communication, and they out-smarted themselves by being late to the point of attack vs OSU’s tempo.
2. On some big plays that got OSU rolling:
* D-end Demetrious Cooper didn’t stay home on a QB zone read keeper, gain of 10.
(Cooper has graduated. Michigan State is much better at his d-end position now. And OSU no longer runs zone read QB keepers).
* On a 47-yard TD, Raequan Williams was slanting from boundary A-gap to field A-gap. He got scooped out of the field A-gap and into the field b-gap. That left no one in the field A-gap. RB found that daylight. Fight song.
Raequan was good last year. He’s way better this year. OSU’s o-line was very good last year. Not so much this year. That particular breakdown on that TD ain’t happening this year. There might be breakdowns, but it’ll have to be different players, different combinations, and I think OSU will have difficulty finding those explosive combinations against MSU’s defense this time.
Also, Michigan State was caught in a corner blitz, with the single safety (Dowell) taking a false step toward a TE horizontal stretch route. Michigan State shot paper, OSU shot scissors AND Williams got carved out of his gap.
* Earlier in that drive, Kyonta Stallworth was the first DT off the bench and was consistently getting moved back a yard or two by double-teams. He wasn’t good enough last year. No one of Stallworth’s 2017 standard sees the field for Michigan State at d-tackle this year.
* OSU’s third-and-short tendency last year was the QB keeper. Very hard to stop. Last year on third-and-one, Michigan State loaded up for the QB keeper and OSU broke tendency by throwing a WR screen for 25 yards. Paper, scissors. Good call. But keying on the QB run won’t be something OSU can leverage this year.
* With Stallworth getting moved, and Jacob Panasiuk failing to set the edge ona third-and-one QB sweep, soon OSU scored again and went up 14-0 on a QB keeper.
* Tempo led to the aforementioned gap issues on the second and third TD drives. Soon it was 21-0. Good plan and execution by OSU.
OSU still goes no-huddle these days, but they don’t run fast tempo. Occasionally they will come to the line and snap quickly, but uptempo has not been part of their deal, at least in the last three or four games.
Could they go back to tempo for this game? They could. But that’s not what they’ve been.
I don’t expect last year’s tempo, last year’s QB run threat, or last year’s strong o-line play to carry over to this year’s meeting … at all.
Meanwhile MSU’s run defense is so much more grown up.
OSU will expect to splatter Michigan State on the ground, but they will fail in this part of the matchup.
**
It went to 28-0 when Michigan State had a bust on an RPO to the tight end for 13 yards, with Dowell and Willis wrongly in the same gap.
Then on a swing pass TD to RB Dobbins, linebacker Andrew Dowell was too-easily blocked by a WR. Bad on Dowell. Good on the OSU WR. OSU's WRs block very well and still do.
**
It went to 35-0 on an 82-yard TD run. Michigan State was in anything but the usual Narduzzi concept of defense on this play. Michigan State was playing to stop the pass first, and got ripped up the middle by the run.
OSU had two receivers to each side. In a stunning change of philosophy, Michigan State put three pass defenders to each side. That’s six pass defenders vs four receivers, with a giant opening in the middle of the field.
This left five Michigan State defenders in the box vs five offensive linemen. OSU just needed to get a hat on a hat, no one had to dominate anyone, and the RB had an 82-yard air tunnel to the end zone, and Michigan State was ready to quit at halftime.
Great gameplan by OSU, great use of tempo, and the QB run threat.
Tempo, QB run threat, o-line play … those are not part of this year’s matchup.
Last year won’t be repeated, unless it's by turnovers and special teams. The only impact last year will have on this game is the extra motivation Michigan State has to prove itself, and possibly a measure of over-confidence on OSU’s behalf.
THE BIG QUESTION:
I’m conflicted about Haskins. His numbers are sometimes outrageously good. He throws a nice ball, darts, strong arm, nice release. Big numbers.
But he looked ordinary last week against Nebraska, and on a per-pass basis, he wasn’t all that effective one game earlier against Purdue.
I didn’t think he looked that good against Minnesota, but you check the box score and he’s 33 of 44 for 412 yards. He threw for 400-plus in two straight games, matching Lewerke’s exploits of last year (including a 1-1 record in the two games).
Here’s the thing: In order for OSU to continue to win at a Top 10 clip, Haskins cannot be ordinary. OSU’s defense and run game are not good enough for the QB to merely be ordinary. They need him to be extraordinary.
He will have good moments against Michigan State and probably put up 300-plus yards of passing. But that might not be enough if Michigan State stuffs the run and gets decent play from the Michigan State quarterback and run game. If those things happen, this game will go down the wire. And that’s what I expect to happen, because I don’t think Haskins will be extraordinary in this game.
THE OSU PASS GAME
* OSU’s pass protection is pretty good. They rank No. 1 in the Big Ten in sacks allowed per pass attempt. However ...
Match-Up Alert:
Right tackle No. 59 Isaiah Prince (6-7, 310, Sr., Greenbelt, Md.) is faulty in pass pro. He’s a waist-bender, doesn’t move all that well and allowed three sacks to Minnesota, plus a holding penalty.
MSU’s Kenny Willekes will have success when at left d-end vs No. 59.
* When Haskins has time, he can sit back in the pocket and throw darts, aided by some nice, simple, tricky route combinations.
With most QBs, if you heat them up in the pocket, get them off their point, they’re not as good. Well, I think that’s really, really, really the case with Hoskins.
He throws okay when running to his right. Not so well when running to his left. He would rather not run at all. He doesn’t evacuate the pocket well to elongate plays. He doesn’t like to tuck and run. He runs scared, and slow. He’s not much of a threat to move the chains with the scramble. At all.
So if you heat him up, he’s not going to escape and beat you outside of the pocket with the run, and isn’t likely to do so with the freelance pass.
So if you can heat him up, make him move in the pocket, he can get frazzled. He tries to play too fast when seeing a blitz, he doesn’t hold the ball for an extra beat in order to take a hit to make a pass. He will instead throw it early and throw an INC on third down rather than take a hit.
FOX color analyst Brady Quinn: “If there’s one thing that’s been effective for Nebraska, it’s been pressure. Either Haskins hasn’t seen it at times or he has seen it and tightened up and made poor decisions.”
QB DWAYNE HASKINS (6-3, 218, Soph., Potomac, Md.)
* Completing 69 pct of his passes for an average of 339 yards a game, for 32 TDs and 6 INTs.
He is No. 3 in the nation in passing yards.
* Three of his INTS have come when getting pressured.
- Haskins was flat out inaccurate and telegraphed on INT in the end zone on the first drive of the 2H vs Nebraska. Simple off quarters zone and he stared it down.
* Five straight INCs midway through the second half kept Nebraska in it.
* He was hit pretty hard midway through the game, showed it on his face, and was even more hesitant than usual afterward to run the ball or take a hit to make a throw. He seriously played his worst game as a starter last week, his first time out after the loss to Purdue. He heard some boos when he slid early when vacating the pocket, during a tight game.
* As for QBs, I would rather have Clayton Thorson, Shae Patterson or Trace McSorley than Haskins.
* Strong arm, can make most of the throws. Accuracy has been good, not great, in recent games. I’m not sure about his touch into the cover-two hole. I saw him miss a couple against Minnesota but by the time I recognized that question mark I didn’t have time to chart more.
* Haskins panicked in the face of a blitz vs Purdue in the 2Q. Plays like a coward sometimes.
* INC on 3-10 vs Purdue when trailing 21-6, fearful of blitz, throwing off back foot.
* Was 8-of-11 vs Nebraska, and then drilled and fumbled and was 4 of his next 8 with a bad INT.
THE RECEIVERS
* The strength of their team is the depth of their receivers. Their offensive staff zings the receivers around in simple but effective combinations. Haskins has time to throw. He delivers darts if he has time. And they move the chains with 12-yard pass after 12-yard pass, and the stat sheet gets filled.
21 PARRIS CAMPBELL (6-1, 208, Sr, Akron)
* Fast guy, used in the slot. They use him on jet sweeps, bubble screens, RPO slants, RPO bubbles. Short passes for the catch-and-run, somewhat similar to the way Penn State uses KJ Hamler and Purdue uses Rondale Moore.
He is probably as fast as those guys, but not as agile.
Game Within The Game:
* They like Campbell on bubble screens with him as the No. 3 WR to the trips side. Looks simple, but the WRs block well and they churn out 8 to 10 yards with this on a regular basis. MSU’s CBs have traditionally been very good at defeating WR blocks on bubble screens . This will be a great game within the game, MSU’s CBs vs the blocks of OSU’s WRs to control the bubble screen game.
14 KJ Hill (6-0, 198, Jr., Little Rock, Ark.)
51 catches, 13.6 per, 4 TDs, 77 yards per game.
* Their best WR, in my opinion.
* Very good hands.
* Vertical threat from the post. foo
* Went to him on a short double-move out route on fourth-and-three vs Minnesota when OSU was trailing midway through the 2Q.
+ Good route combo for 36-yard TD on an out-and-up from the slot vs cover four. Made a one-handed catch on the run on a ball thrown behind him. A great catch made to look easy.
+ TD on slot skinny post for 26 yard TD into soft cover-four with two minutes to go.
+ Slant and go for about 45 yards late in the first half vs Purdue.
* He can stretch you vertically or horizontally, from the outside or slot.
1 Johnnie Dixon (5-11, 198, Sr., West Palm Beach)
26 catches, 14.6 per, 5 TDs, 42 yards per game.
(The fourth-leading receiver, Austin Mack, from Fort Wayne, is out with an injury)
83 Terry McLaurin (6-1, 204, Sr., Indianapolis)
21 catches, 19.0 per, 8 TDs, 44 yards per.
* Legit fly route deep threat that they don’t throw to all that much.
- Was open by two steps on deep go route vs Purdue in the 1q but Haskins overthrew him.
* Vs Minnesota: two plays after a weak Haskins scramble for a gain of 1 on third-and-three, he found McLaurin deep on a post for a 50-yard TD and a 10-3 lead.
RBs Dobbins (16 catches) and Mike Weber (15 catches) rank sixth and seventh on the team in receptions. OSU RBs average 47 yards receiving per game.
9 Binjimen Victor (6-4, 200, Jr., Pompano Beach,Fla.)
15 catches, 16.4 per catch, 3 TDs, 27 yards per game.
- Dropped a shallow crosser in 2Q vs Minnesota.
- Failed to haul in a difficult catch in the end zone vs Purdue, one of OSU’s five red zone fails in that game.
* Was supposed to be great when he was younger but hasn’t panned out.
89 TE LUKE FARRELL (6-6, 250, Soph., Perry, Ohio)
* He has 12 catches on the year, with most of them coming in the last two or three weeks.
* Four catches vs Purdue, his best game of the year.
* Functional TE, not all that athletic. * They went to him on FIB during a key drive in the 4q vs Minnesota for about 20 yards, schemed him open, had him pass set out to the flat then release late on a wheel. FIB means formation to the boundary with three receivers packed to the short side of the field.
+ They threw to him on a third-and-two counter boot drag for about 10 yards with 3 minutes to go vs Minnesota.
+ 10-yard catch on third and six over the middle on sit down in 2q vs Purdue.
THE RUN GAME
You know all about Weber and Dobbins.
Dobbins (5-10, 212, Soph., Grad Prairie, TX) has 684 yards, averaging 4.8 per and 76 yards per game.
Weber (5-10, 214, Jr., Detroit) has 607 yards, 5.8 per and 65 yards per game.
Weber fumbled two or three times last week, I lost count. I think OSU recovered all of them.
O-LINE
* As I said, they are similar in talent to Michigan, but not as varied, and weaker at RT in pass pro.
Not a dominant o-line. Line was criticized earlier in the year, but I don’t think they’re bad. Probably not an apt scapegoat. They are merely good. But I think Michigan State wins the matchup in the trenches when OSU has the ball.
OSU has been crafty in its ability to run the ball wide with outside zones and sweeps, and incorporate bubble screens to take the game outside the phone booth in the past against Michigan State. They will probably try that again.
* OSU tried desperately to establish the run last week after early-season struggles, and ran it the first four plays after Nebraska took a 7-0 lead. OSU was stopped on third-and-1 (jet sweep, tight end missed a block) and fourth-and-two (inside zone out of the pistol; Nebraska switched from two-gapping to one-gapping on that play, OSU didn’t seem to identify things right, didn’t get a double-team, played with high pad level, had no push, and got stuffed).
* OSU was stopped on fourth and short in four consecutive games vs Tulane, Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota. Against Purdue, trailing 21-6 with 14:50 to play PUNTED on fourth-and-one at own 30-yard line. No confidence in run game.
OSU’s AVERAGE PER CARRY
7.8 yards per carry vs Oregon State
5.6 vs Rutgers
4.3 vs Tcu
3.9 vs Tulane
3.2 vs PSU
3.2 vs Indiana
2.8 vs Minnesota
3.0 vs Purdue
5.7 vs Nebraska, (229 on 40 carries)
OHIO STATE DEFENSE
* Ranks No. 8 in the Big Ten in total defense.
* Has allowed 15 plays of 40 yards or more, including two last week. Allowed only 5 last year.
* Nick Bosa was possibly the best d-end in the country. He was injured earlier in the year and opted to sit out the rest of the season in order to get ready for the NFL Draft.
Bosa was a huge difference-maker in last year’s Michigan State-OSU game. Michigan State flat-out couldn’t block him.
* OSU lost three d-ends from last year’s team to the first four rounds of the NFL Draft.
* They are trying to reload on the d-line but aren’t quite there, and aren’t nearly where they were in 2014 for the National Championship year.
* Still, OSU ranks No. 3 in the Big Ten in sacks per game at 3.0. (Penn State and Michigan lead the Big Ten at 3.2 sacks per game).
[Michigan sacked Michigan State four times, with two coming on the final drive against Rocky Lombardi.]
[Penn State sacked Michigan State three times.]
The trend suggests that Ohio State will get its three sacks against Michigan State, too.
* OSU D-ends are good, not yet great. Stunts are pretty quick. Pass rush is similar to Penn State’s in talent and effectiveness. That means they’re pretty good.
2 DE Chase Young (6-5, 265, Soph., Upper Marlboro, Md)
* 4.5 sacks
* He has a bright future. Very talented. Montez Sweat type.
* Tall, rangy, explosive athlete.
* Good with inside stunts on the pass rush, moves like Montez Sweat.
+ Has good strength on his counter moves. He’s not done when he counters.
86 DT Draymont Jones (6-3, 290, Cleveland)
* Jones has 6.5 sacks and was supposed to be the superstar of this d-line after Bosa was lost. He hasn’t been all that noticeably in the last two or three games and I’ve seen him getting swept off the point vs double teams, especially when he is slanting or one-gapping.
* When he’s right, he can get upfield quickly when slanting on the pass rush, with a good arm-over.
* Quick with his hands, with the arm-over or shoulder club to cross your face and penetrate the backfield.
67 DT Robert Landers (6-1, 283, Jr., Dayton Huber Heights Wayne)
* He starts and isn’t all that good for an OSU starter. He might be as good as Gerald Owens.
* He has two TFLs on the year. I honestly think he would be third string if he played for Michigan State. A decent ground attack can move him with a double-team.
18 DE JONATHON COOPER (6-4, 257, Jr., Gahanna, Ohio)
* I haven’t witnessed him do anything noteworthy. Has 1.5 sacks and 4.0 TFLs on the year.
LINEBACKERS
* ILBs don’t run all that well and make too many gap errors. That’s No. 32 Tuf Borland (6-1, 230, Soph., Bolingbrook, Ill.) and No. 39 Malik Harrison (6-3, 240, Jr. Columbus).
- Harrison incorrectly took on a block on second-and-goal last week, false-stepped, wrong-shouldered it, was swept downstream and the play nearly went for a red zone TD.
I could give more examples but I need to finish this.
DEFENSIVE BACKFIELD
* Good talent back here, but the whole is not as good as the sum of the parts. In other words, they don’t always play well together. Lots of miscommunications. Will that continue? If so, OSU will continue to play with upset fire.
* They mixed in more off-zone coverage last week than in previous games. Their tight man-to-man was burned by Purdue and Penn State (especially Penn State with the QB keeper vs man-to-man).
OSU played cover three against Minnesota and sometimes vs Purdue, showing press and then bailing. Last week, they went with more off coverage at pre-snap. The results were mixed. They’re trying something new and at times it looked like a bunch of guys trying something new.
example:
8 CB Kendall Sheffield (6-0, 193, Jr., Missouri City, TX):
- Carried zone too deep on cover three on third-and-8 in 2q at edge of the red zone with 6:21 to play in the first half. Probably wasn’t supposed to sink that deep, but it’s new.
- In zone, he lost contact with WR Stanley Morgan on third-and-long deep pass in the fourth quarter, let Nebraska back in the game.
14 CB Isaiah Pryor (6-2, 197, Soph., Lawrenceville, Ga.)
* He had been a starter all year but is now behind Wade (former CB) and White (former second-stringer). He is now third-string.
- Pryor missed a tackle on an out route which turned into a 29-yard play late in the 1Q vs Minnesota.
S 4 JORDAN FULLER (6-2, 204, Jr., Norwood, NJ)
+ Good tackler, Real nice, firm sweep tackle at goal line vs Minnesota to save a TD and set up third-and-goal.
S 25 BRENDAN WHITE (6-2, 210, Soph. Powell, Ohio)
* 25 too thin of a tackling angle on a bubble screen in 2Q vs Nebraska, gain of 12.
* He has very good speed, though. He played in the 2q last week after starter Jordan Fuller was lost to a first half targeting penalty.
3 CB Damon Arnett (6-0, 195, Jr., Fort Lauderdale)
* Good player. Was good with tactical holding last year, but I haven’t seen as much of that from OSU this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS NOTE
OSU is No. 3 in the Big Ten in punting, Michigan State is No. 13. Punt exchanges in a defensive struggle on a windy day could yield a 100-yard advantage for OSU in hidden yardage. Maryland’s two scoring opportunities last week were both delivered by poor Michigan State punts.
OSU is 8 of 11 on field goals. Michigan State is 12 of 13.
ADD IT ALL UP
I like Michigan State to stop the run and contain the pass for most of the day, maybe all day.
Michigan State will vary its coverages. Haskins can be confused.
Michigan State is pretty good at springing freak coverages on you, on third downs in the second half. Michigan State also has done a decent job of incorporating well-timed blitzes, and not the same old blitz combinations every time.
Michigan State will try to move Haskins off his point. I think Michigan State will have some success with this.
Haskins USUALLY throws for about 350 yards. I think there’s a better chance that he will have a frustrating day than exceed his average. Weather will make it that much harder for Haskins to do his thing.
I think Michigan State will stop the OSU run, and maybe stifle it.
If Michigan State can move the ball at all on offense, rather than giving it right back to the opponent as was the case in the Michigan game, then I think Michigan State has a good chance to hold OSU under 20 points.
Can Michigan State score 20? This is the x-factor matchup. MSU’s enigmatic QB situation and Elf on the Shelf run game against Ohio State’s talented John L Smith defense. I have no idea what that matchup will yield.
You’ve watched MSU’s QB situation and run game. Your guess is as good as mine on that one. Realize that OSU’s run defense and pass defense are good at times, but talented/inconsistent/unreliable.
Upset situation in cold conditions on the grass will make for an uncomfortable challenge for Haskins and OSU. Whether or not Michigan State has the QB punch to finish, I don’t know. Michigan State might need to be up by 10 or more with six minutes to go, and that’s possible.
As for a prediction, I don’t do that. If I do a prediction, that’s all anyone will remember. I’ll leave it to the reader to parse through the research and formulate their own forecast.
