Suffice it to say that the last few weeks have been interesting for MSU basketball. In the losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, the Spartans looked more like an N.I.T team than the Final Four team we all expected to see.
But that potential Final Four team finally showed up on Saturday afternoon at LCA. So, what do we make of all of this?
As usual, I use the magic of math and simulation to try to sort out fact from emotion. I have updated all the numbers and rerun the simulation of the remaining Big Ten season and I present the results here:
The past two weeks have been a rollercoaster ride. We updated our simulation to find out where MSU stands.
michiganstate.rivals.com
Even with a 0-2 Big Ten record, the Spartans can still fight their way back into the conference race. MSU is right on the border of projecting to have a 11-9 or 12-8 conference record.
If MSU goes 20-11 (12-8) with a win over Baylor, that should be enough to make the tournament. A record of 19-10 (11-9) is probably still OK as long as Michigan State is in the top five of the Big Ten and right now that is how things look (assuming MSU wins out over the next three games, which is not guaranteed).
If the Spartans can continue to improve, there is a chance that the Green and White can get to a record of 15-5 or even 16-4. After a home game with Penn State on Jan. 4, the next six games will tell us if the Spartans can challenge for the regular season crown. If MSU can get wins at Wisconsin and at Illinois, the damage done by the first two losses will be erased.
I also have some thoughts on luck versus grit and some early tidbits on eventual Big Ten Tournament seeding tiebreakers. The Spartans may have some advantages over both Ohio State and Illinois on that front.
All of that and more is discussed in detail.