MEN'S BASKETBALL Dr. G&W's Hoops Odds Update (A win is a win)
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Howdy, folks! I have good news. So far Michigan State basketball is undefeated in 2021. While the win at Nebraska was not as pretty as we would have liked, a win is a win, and it feels good to get one in the win column. Not very many other games have been played since the last odds update, but I wanted to update the data quickly prior to MSU’s next game versus Rutgers on Tuesday night, starting with the standings and current conference odds.
Current Standings and Odds Update
As usual, here are the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of 01/04/2021
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings for 01/04/2021
MSU is now at least out of the basement and is back at zero in the plus/minus category due to the road win at Nebraska. Note that the road team has only won nine of the 30 Big Ten games so far, so this is a bit significant. MSU’s “luck” also improved a bit with the win over the Huskers.
At the top of the standings are the Michigan Wolverines at 4-0. The Wolverines have also crept into the top-10 in Kenpom and are the only team in the Big Ten both with no losses and with two road wins, albeit against Nebraska and Maryland, who are a combined 1-7. Michigan is also second only to Northwestern in overall “luck” so far in Big Ten play and have yet to play a team in the top-45 of Kenpom (#shade).
Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten win matrix.
Table 2: Big Ten win distribution matrix for 01/04/2021
MSU’s expected win total ticked up slightly to 7.45, but the overall position and situation is virtually unchanged. The Spartans still project to most likely go 7-13 in conference play. MSU’s odds to get to at least .500 also ticked up only slightly from 16.8 percent to 18.2 percent. Baby steps.
Table 3 below shows the updated Big Ten regular season title odds.
Table 3: Big Ten regular season championship odds as of 01/04/2021
The overall conference race is a virtual dead-heat between Illinois (31 percent odds to finish at least tied for first place), Michigan (29 percent), Iowa (28 percent) and Wisconsin (27 percent). Rutgers and Minnesota are both in the next pack with odds around five percent, followed by a group of three teams (Ohio State, Indiana, and Purdue) with odds just over one percent.
As for MSU, the odds to win a Big Ten title are essentially unchanged (and still awful) at 0.15 percent or 1-in-700. This is actually a slight decrease from last week, but that may be within the error of the calculation.
Strength of Schedule Update
Figure 1 below gives the updated overall strengths of schedule for all 14 Big Ten schools.
Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule
This figure has changed very little as Purdue and Illinois both have the easiest overall conference schedule with Wisconsin and Michigan not far behind. MSU’s schedule is still the fifth most difficult overall, about a half-of-a-game more difficult than the conference’s easiest schedule.
Figure 2: Big Ten remaining schedule strengths as of 01/04/2021
Figure 2 above shows the schedule strengths only considering the remaining games. Purdue is a clear leader here with a three-and-a-half percentage point lead over the second place team, Minnesota. Illinois has a notably easier remaining schedule compared to the other main competitors, namely Iowa, Wisconsin, and especially Michigan. Unfortunately, MSU’s remaining schedule is also the fifth most difficult.
Big Ten Tournament Projection
If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 30 total Big Ten games have been played and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results. Table 4 below provides that update.
Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seed matrix for 01/04/2021
Once again, the update is pretty status quo (and bad) for the Spartans, who I still project as the No. 13 seed. The only bright spot is that the odds of moving up out of the first round of the Big Ten Tournament are now at 38 percent, which is up four points from the last update.
MSU’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule
Following MSU’s win at Nebraska, I have updated the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.
Figure 3: Updated Kenpom efficiency scatter plot showing the trajectory of the current MSU season, past MSU teams, past NCAA champions, and current contenders
The win in Lincoln improved MSU’s offensive efficiency slightly, but the defensive efficiency continues to slide. As a result, the Spartans’ efficiency margin remained essentially unchanged. As of today, the profile of the current MSU team matches that of the 2017 team almost exactly. That team finished 10-8 in conference play, made the tournament as a No. 9 seed, and beat No. 8 seed Miami before losing in the second round to No. 1 seed Kansas.
As for the potential contenders, Gonzaga and Baylor are still the clear favorites to cut down the nets in April, but teams like Villanova, Wisconsin, Texas, and Illinois also fit the profile of past champions. The remaining 12 teams in the “championship zone” of Figure 3 may be a threat but 15 of the past 18 champions have entered the tournament with an overall efficiency margin over 23.9. Only the six teams listed above meet that criteria.
Finally, Figure 4 below gives the projected win probabilities for all of MSU’s remaining games.
Figure 4: Projected odds for MSU's remaining regular season Big Ten games
There are no major changes since the New Year’s Day update as MSU only projects to be favored in three of the remaining games (versus Purdue, Nebraska, and Penn State). However, several games are still near toss-ups, which is why MSU’s expected win total is slightly over seven.
If the initial goal is simply to get to 10-10 in conference play, the next two home games against Rutgers and Purdue are critical as the rest of the month looks very challenging. Right now, the Spartans need to find a way to win at least two of the three upcoming home games against Rutgers, Purdue, and Indiana (expected win total equals 1.43).
For the rest of the month, the odds suggest that MSU more likely than not should be able to steal at least a single win in the group of games that includes the contests at Iowa, versus Illinois, at Rutgers, and at Ohio State (expected win total equals 1.11). MSU then needs to also beat Nebraska again as play in February begins.
Adding this all up suggests that a slightly optimistic record of 5-7 following the second game with the Cornhuskers is still reasonable even if the team does not see a major improvement. If MSU can beat this record, then things will be moving in a positive direction. If not, then the scary numbers that are shown above are more likely to be close to reality by the end of the season.
That said, they all count one and the next game is always the most important game on the schedule. That game is Rutgers. Let’s hope that MSU can string together two wins in a row and start to right the ship as we steam towards March.
That is all for today. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat Rutgers!
Current Standings and Odds Update
As usual, here are the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of 01/04/2021
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings for 01/04/2021
MSU is now at least out of the basement and is back at zero in the plus/minus category due to the road win at Nebraska. Note that the road team has only won nine of the 30 Big Ten games so far, so this is a bit significant. MSU’s “luck” also improved a bit with the win over the Huskers.
At the top of the standings are the Michigan Wolverines at 4-0. The Wolverines have also crept into the top-10 in Kenpom and are the only team in the Big Ten both with no losses and with two road wins, albeit against Nebraska and Maryland, who are a combined 1-7. Michigan is also second only to Northwestern in overall “luck” so far in Big Ten play and have yet to play a team in the top-45 of Kenpom (#shade).
Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten win matrix.
Table 2: Big Ten win distribution matrix for 01/04/2021
MSU’s expected win total ticked up slightly to 7.45, but the overall position and situation is virtually unchanged. The Spartans still project to most likely go 7-13 in conference play. MSU’s odds to get to at least .500 also ticked up only slightly from 16.8 percent to 18.2 percent. Baby steps.
Table 3 below shows the updated Big Ten regular season title odds.
Table 3: Big Ten regular season championship odds as of 01/04/2021
The overall conference race is a virtual dead-heat between Illinois (31 percent odds to finish at least tied for first place), Michigan (29 percent), Iowa (28 percent) and Wisconsin (27 percent). Rutgers and Minnesota are both in the next pack with odds around five percent, followed by a group of three teams (Ohio State, Indiana, and Purdue) with odds just over one percent.
As for MSU, the odds to win a Big Ten title are essentially unchanged (and still awful) at 0.15 percent or 1-in-700. This is actually a slight decrease from last week, but that may be within the error of the calculation.
Strength of Schedule Update
Figure 1 below gives the updated overall strengths of schedule for all 14 Big Ten schools.
Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule
This figure has changed very little as Purdue and Illinois both have the easiest overall conference schedule with Wisconsin and Michigan not far behind. MSU’s schedule is still the fifth most difficult overall, about a half-of-a-game more difficult than the conference’s easiest schedule.
Figure 2: Big Ten remaining schedule strengths as of 01/04/2021
Figure 2 above shows the schedule strengths only considering the remaining games. Purdue is a clear leader here with a three-and-a-half percentage point lead over the second place team, Minnesota. Illinois has a notably easier remaining schedule compared to the other main competitors, namely Iowa, Wisconsin, and especially Michigan. Unfortunately, MSU’s remaining schedule is also the fifth most difficult.
Big Ten Tournament Projection
If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 30 total Big Ten games have been played and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results. Table 4 below provides that update.
Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seed matrix for 01/04/2021
Once again, the update is pretty status quo (and bad) for the Spartans, who I still project as the No. 13 seed. The only bright spot is that the odds of moving up out of the first round of the Big Ten Tournament are now at 38 percent, which is up four points from the last update.
MSU’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule
Following MSU’s win at Nebraska, I have updated the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.
Figure 3: Updated Kenpom efficiency scatter plot showing the trajectory of the current MSU season, past MSU teams, past NCAA champions, and current contenders
The win in Lincoln improved MSU’s offensive efficiency slightly, but the defensive efficiency continues to slide. As a result, the Spartans’ efficiency margin remained essentially unchanged. As of today, the profile of the current MSU team matches that of the 2017 team almost exactly. That team finished 10-8 in conference play, made the tournament as a No. 9 seed, and beat No. 8 seed Miami before losing in the second round to No. 1 seed Kansas.
As for the potential contenders, Gonzaga and Baylor are still the clear favorites to cut down the nets in April, but teams like Villanova, Wisconsin, Texas, and Illinois also fit the profile of past champions. The remaining 12 teams in the “championship zone” of Figure 3 may be a threat but 15 of the past 18 champions have entered the tournament with an overall efficiency margin over 23.9. Only the six teams listed above meet that criteria.
Finally, Figure 4 below gives the projected win probabilities for all of MSU’s remaining games.
Figure 4: Projected odds for MSU's remaining regular season Big Ten games
There are no major changes since the New Year’s Day update as MSU only projects to be favored in three of the remaining games (versus Purdue, Nebraska, and Penn State). However, several games are still near toss-ups, which is why MSU’s expected win total is slightly over seven.
If the initial goal is simply to get to 10-10 in conference play, the next two home games against Rutgers and Purdue are critical as the rest of the month looks very challenging. Right now, the Spartans need to find a way to win at least two of the three upcoming home games against Rutgers, Purdue, and Indiana (expected win total equals 1.43).
For the rest of the month, the odds suggest that MSU more likely than not should be able to steal at least a single win in the group of games that includes the contests at Iowa, versus Illinois, at Rutgers, and at Ohio State (expected win total equals 1.11). MSU then needs to also beat Nebraska again as play in February begins.
Adding this all up suggests that a slightly optimistic record of 5-7 following the second game with the Cornhuskers is still reasonable even if the team does not see a major improvement. If MSU can beat this record, then things will be moving in a positive direction. If not, then the scary numbers that are shown above are more likely to be close to reality by the end of the season.
That said, they all count one and the next game is always the most important game on the schedule. That game is Rutgers. Let’s hope that MSU can string together two wins in a row and start to right the ship as we steam towards March.
That is all for today. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat Rutgers!
HOCKEY NHL teams adding sponsors to helmets
- By MSUStudent
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
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Red Wings look like they might play for Wisconsin.
The Red Wings aren't the only team doing this, and I don't blame them - need to raise revenue somehow (with no fans) right?
Red Wings partner with United Wholesale Mortgage; logo will be on team's helmets
The Detroit Red Wings and United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM) have partnered to make UWM the official mortgage provider for the team.
www.wxyz.com
The Red Wings aren't the only team doing this, and I don't blame them - need to raise revenue somehow (with no fans) right?
HOCKEY Penn State at Michigan State Game 1 Thread
- By MSUStudent
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HOCKEY Still no time for Sunday's game yet eh?
- By Go ST8
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
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HOCKEY News and Notes
- By Go ST8
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Spartans Start New Year By Hosting Penn State - Michigan State University Athletics
Games 9-10: Penn State (3-5, 1-5-0-0-0-0) vs. Michigan State (3-3-2, 2-3-1-2-0-0 B1G)
MEN'S BASKETBALL Dr. G&W's Big Ten Hoops Odds Update (Happier New Year?)
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Happy New Year, Spartans fans! At long last, that festering cease pool of a year that we called 2020 is finally over. It’s a new month. It’s a new year. Here’s to hoping that things are starting to move in the right direction, in more ways than one.
As for MSU basketball, when we last checked in with the Spartans, they were 0-2 following a fairly solid performance against Wisconsin. But, as we all know, the Spartans were blown out in rather embarrassing fashion in Minneapolis and are now 0-3. It was one of the poorest shooting nights that I can remember and MSU’s performance I can only describe as “listless.”
I personally thought that the fire-and-brimstone version of Tom Izzo would be on display following the loss...but it wasn’t. Coach Izzo is obviously frustrated and disappointed, but he is still using the “kinder, gentler” approach with this team. While that is honestly frustrating to see as a fan, Izzo is a master of psychology. He knows this team and this game far better than anyone else on the planet. If anyone can get this team back on track, it’s Coach Izzo. Period.
Right now, MSU is on a three-game losing streak. That’s bad. But, it is also not that unusual. Consider the following past seasons:
If we consider Izzo’s track record since 2007, Coach managed to successfully “salvage” the season seven-out-of-nine times when a similar rough patch was encountered. Furthermore, if consider the recent years not in the list above, they also all ended with some level of major success: 2009 (Final Four), 2012 (Big Ten Title and No. 1 seed), 2015 (Final Four), and 2018 (Big Ten Title).
That all said, it is a strange year and a strange season. The Big Ten is very strong from top to bottom. It is certainly possible that the 2020-21 season will end similarly to the 2011 or 2017 season...or worse. But, I am a numbers guy and an optimist so at the end of the day, am I going to go with the proven track record of Izzo that has eight more Final Fours than any of the hand-wringers out there. It still seems like a good bet to me, despite what the numbers below are about to tell us.
Current Standings and Odds Update
Below I present the updated enhanced Big Ten standings, as of Jan. 1, 2021. MSU is at 0-3, but at least the Spartans have some company in the basement in Penn State and Nebraska. Notably, MSU is currently the “most unlucky” team in the conference. Based on MSU’s current Kenpom ranking, the Spartans should have won 1.13 games out of the first three. Meanwhile, Northwestern (+1.57), Rutgers (+0.97), and Michigan (+0.81) rank as the “most lucky.”
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings for 01/01/2021
Table 2 below shows the current Big Ten win matrix as of the first day of 2021.
Table 2: Big Ten win distribution matrix for 01/01/2021
Michigan State’s expected win total has now dropped to 7.21, which is now second to last in the conference. As such, the mostly likely final Big Ten record for MSU is now 7-13. My math now suggests that the Spartans’ odds to make it to 10-10 or better are now at only 16.8 percent.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s loss to Maryland has made the overall Big Ten race much more competitive. Wisconsin still has the best overall expected win total (13.35), but Illinois (13.28), Iowa (13.05), and Michigan (12.96) are right in the hunt. As for the regular season champions odds, those are shown below in Table 3. As for the regular season champions odds, those are shown below in Table 3.
Table 3: Current Big Ten regular season title odds
Consistent with the expected win totals above, Wisconsin (29.3 percent), Illinois (26.7 percent), Iowa (24.9 percent), and Michigan (24.4 percent) have the best odds to win or share the regular season title. As for MSU, the current Big Ten odds are bleak, to say the least, but they are non-zero...barely. I currently estimate the odds to be 0.20 percent or about 1-in-500.
Strength of Schedule Update
The Big Ten strengths of schedule have not changed much, but I am showing the updated Figure below. Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin still own the easiest overall schedule, while MSU’s schedule is now grading out to be the fifth most difficult. Northwestern still has a significantly harder schedule than the rest of the conference.
Figure 1: Current Big Ten strengths of schedule
If I only consider the remaining schedule, normalized to a percentage by dividing by the remaining games, that data is shown below in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Current Big Ten strength of schedules considering only the remaining games
Purdue and Illinois both have relatively softer remaining schedules, but Maryland and Minnesota are also appearing in the top four. In this case, MSU’s remaining schedule is still in the middle of the pack, while Wisconsin’s remaining schedule is now grading out to be the fourth most difficult.
Big Ten Tournament Projection
If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 25 total Big Ten games have been played and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible even now to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results. Table 4 below provides that update.
Table 4: Current Big Ten Tournament seeding odds
As expected, the results are bleak for Spartans fans, as MSU is currently projecting as the No. 13 seed based on both the overall odds and the most likely single scenario where all of the favorites win. The really bad news (as we will see below) is that this scenario has MSU finishing at only 4-16 in Big Ten play and in a tie with Nebraska for last place. At this point, MSU projects to only have a 34 percent chance to avoid the first day of games in Indianapolis.
MSU’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule
Following MSU’s loss to Minnesota, I have updated the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.
Figure 3: Updated Kenpom efficiency scatter plot comparing the current MSU season to past MSU teams, past NCAA champions, and current contenders
As expected, MSU’s offensive efficiency took a major hit in Minneapolis, and the Spartans have now fallen completely out of the “Championship Zone.” MSU’s current profile is now very similar to both the 2011 team and especially the 2017 teams, which of course happen to be exactly the two teams that I mentioned above which did not recover significantly from the Big Ten losing streaks similar to the one facing the Spartans now.
As for the remaining Spartan schedule, Figure 4 shows the projected win probabilities for all of MSU’s remaining games.
Figure 4: Projected odds for MSU's remaining Big Ten regular season games
As mentioned above, MSU is currently only projected to be a favorite in four of the remaining games: the two games against Nebraska, and the home games versus Purdue and Penn State.
That said, there are still three games remaining with win percentages projected to be over 40 percent (home games against Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State) and six more games with projected win percentages over 30 percent (home games against Illinois, Michigan, and Iowa and road games against Purdue, Indiana, and Maryland)
If MSU can right the ship (as Izzo usually does) these are the games that are likely to be the most winnable, and there are 13 of them. MSU clearly has the ability to play a lot better than the last few games have shown. It is certainly possible that MSU can move towards the upper right hand corner in Figure 3.
Simply moving back up the edge of the current green oval (with an efficiency margin near +20) would move the Spartans back into the top half of the Big Ten and would push many of the games in the “close loss” category back into the “close win” category. MSU would still need to actually win those toss-up games, but as Table 1 suggests, the Green and White seem to be do for some positive “luck.”
Once again, this is a pretty depressing update. But, things can certainly change quickly. I could easily this team emerging from a stretch of three or four practice suddenly looking much better. Within the span of a week or two, this team might look like the team that we all saw whip Norte Dame and Duke just a few weeks back. If that improvement started this week, MSU might just be able to weasel back in the Big Ten race.
Then again, this team might continue to struggle, and we could see an ending much closer to that of the 2011 season, where Coach Izzo honestly seemed like he just wanted to hit the reset button by mid-February and be done with that group of guys. But, that type of ending is more the exception than the rule. Either way, Coach Izzo has his work cut out for him. But, as stated above, I believe that there is no better person in the world to figure this out.
That is all for today. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Huskers!
As for MSU basketball, when we last checked in with the Spartans, they were 0-2 following a fairly solid performance against Wisconsin. But, as we all know, the Spartans were blown out in rather embarrassing fashion in Minneapolis and are now 0-3. It was one of the poorest shooting nights that I can remember and MSU’s performance I can only describe as “listless.”
I personally thought that the fire-and-brimstone version of Tom Izzo would be on display following the loss...but it wasn’t. Coach Izzo is obviously frustrated and disappointed, but he is still using the “kinder, gentler” approach with this team. While that is honestly frustrating to see as a fan, Izzo is a master of psychology. He knows this team and this game far better than anyone else on the planet. If anyone can get this team back on track, it’s Coach Izzo. Period.
Right now, MSU is on a three-game losing streak. That’s bad. But, it is also not that unusual. Consider the following past seasons:
- Last year, MSU had a three-game skid in early February (and also lost four-out-of-five) and still won the Big Ten.
- 2019: MSU lost three games in a row in late January and early February, still won the Big Ten and made the Final Four.
- 2017: MSU lost three games in a row (and four-out-of-five), and wound up a No. 9 seed.
- 2016: MSU lost three games in a row and wound up a No. 2 seed (but we won’t talk about how that Tournament went...)
- 2014: MSU did not lose three in a row, but did drop four-of-six down the stretch and yet still won the Big Ten Tournament and made the Region Final.
- 2013: MSU had a three-game losing streak, yet earned a No. 3 seed and made the Sweet 16
- 2011: That team lost six-of-eight in Big Ten play, yet at least made it to .500.
- 2010: MSU had a three-game losing streak, yet made the Final Four.
- 2008: MSU lost three-out-of-four in one stretch, but wound up making the Sweet 16.
- 2007: That team lost four in a row but at least made it to .500.
- 2006: That team lost five of seven late to drop to .500 and then flamed out to George Mason in the tournament.
- 2003: MSU lost three in a row early in Big Ten play (including a 2-4 start), then had another stretch with a 1-3 record, yet finished over .500 and advanced to a Regional Final.
- 2002: MSU opened Big Ten play 0-3 as well, but finished 10-6.
If we consider Izzo’s track record since 2007, Coach managed to successfully “salvage” the season seven-out-of-nine times when a similar rough patch was encountered. Furthermore, if consider the recent years not in the list above, they also all ended with some level of major success: 2009 (Final Four), 2012 (Big Ten Title and No. 1 seed), 2015 (Final Four), and 2018 (Big Ten Title).
That all said, it is a strange year and a strange season. The Big Ten is very strong from top to bottom. It is certainly possible that the 2020-21 season will end similarly to the 2011 or 2017 season...or worse. But, I am a numbers guy and an optimist so at the end of the day, am I going to go with the proven track record of Izzo that has eight more Final Fours than any of the hand-wringers out there. It still seems like a good bet to me, despite what the numbers below are about to tell us.
Current Standings and Odds Update
Below I present the updated enhanced Big Ten standings, as of Jan. 1, 2021. MSU is at 0-3, but at least the Spartans have some company in the basement in Penn State and Nebraska. Notably, MSU is currently the “most unlucky” team in the conference. Based on MSU’s current Kenpom ranking, the Spartans should have won 1.13 games out of the first three. Meanwhile, Northwestern (+1.57), Rutgers (+0.97), and Michigan (+0.81) rank as the “most lucky.”
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings for 01/01/2021
Table 2 below shows the current Big Ten win matrix as of the first day of 2021.
Table 2: Big Ten win distribution matrix for 01/01/2021
Michigan State’s expected win total has now dropped to 7.21, which is now second to last in the conference. As such, the mostly likely final Big Ten record for MSU is now 7-13. My math now suggests that the Spartans’ odds to make it to 10-10 or better are now at only 16.8 percent.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s loss to Maryland has made the overall Big Ten race much more competitive. Wisconsin still has the best overall expected win total (13.35), but Illinois (13.28), Iowa (13.05), and Michigan (12.96) are right in the hunt. As for the regular season champions odds, those are shown below in Table 3. As for the regular season champions odds, those are shown below in Table 3.
Table 3: Current Big Ten regular season title odds
Consistent with the expected win totals above, Wisconsin (29.3 percent), Illinois (26.7 percent), Iowa (24.9 percent), and Michigan (24.4 percent) have the best odds to win or share the regular season title. As for MSU, the current Big Ten odds are bleak, to say the least, but they are non-zero...barely. I currently estimate the odds to be 0.20 percent or about 1-in-500.
Strength of Schedule Update
The Big Ten strengths of schedule have not changed much, but I am showing the updated Figure below. Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin still own the easiest overall schedule, while MSU’s schedule is now grading out to be the fifth most difficult. Northwestern still has a significantly harder schedule than the rest of the conference.
Figure 1: Current Big Ten strengths of schedule
If I only consider the remaining schedule, normalized to a percentage by dividing by the remaining games, that data is shown below in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Current Big Ten strength of schedules considering only the remaining games
Purdue and Illinois both have relatively softer remaining schedules, but Maryland and Minnesota are also appearing in the top four. In this case, MSU’s remaining schedule is still in the middle of the pack, while Wisconsin’s remaining schedule is now grading out to be the fourth most difficult.
Big Ten Tournament Projection
If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 25 total Big Ten games have been played and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible even now to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results. Table 4 below provides that update.
Table 4: Current Big Ten Tournament seeding odds
As expected, the results are bleak for Spartans fans, as MSU is currently projecting as the No. 13 seed based on both the overall odds and the most likely single scenario where all of the favorites win. The really bad news (as we will see below) is that this scenario has MSU finishing at only 4-16 in Big Ten play and in a tie with Nebraska for last place. At this point, MSU projects to only have a 34 percent chance to avoid the first day of games in Indianapolis.
MSU’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule
Following MSU’s loss to Minnesota, I have updated the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.
Figure 3: Updated Kenpom efficiency scatter plot comparing the current MSU season to past MSU teams, past NCAA champions, and current contenders
As expected, MSU’s offensive efficiency took a major hit in Minneapolis, and the Spartans have now fallen completely out of the “Championship Zone.” MSU’s current profile is now very similar to both the 2011 team and especially the 2017 teams, which of course happen to be exactly the two teams that I mentioned above which did not recover significantly from the Big Ten losing streaks similar to the one facing the Spartans now.
As for the remaining Spartan schedule, Figure 4 shows the projected win probabilities for all of MSU’s remaining games.
Figure 4: Projected odds for MSU's remaining Big Ten regular season games
As mentioned above, MSU is currently only projected to be a favorite in four of the remaining games: the two games against Nebraska, and the home games versus Purdue and Penn State.
That said, there are still three games remaining with win percentages projected to be over 40 percent (home games against Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State) and six more games with projected win percentages over 30 percent (home games against Illinois, Michigan, and Iowa and road games against Purdue, Indiana, and Maryland)
If MSU can right the ship (as Izzo usually does) these are the games that are likely to be the most winnable, and there are 13 of them. MSU clearly has the ability to play a lot better than the last few games have shown. It is certainly possible that MSU can move towards the upper right hand corner in Figure 3.
Simply moving back up the edge of the current green oval (with an efficiency margin near +20) would move the Spartans back into the top half of the Big Ten and would push many of the games in the “close loss” category back into the “close win” category. MSU would still need to actually win those toss-up games, but as Table 1 suggests, the Green and White seem to be do for some positive “luck.”
Once again, this is a pretty depressing update. But, things can certainly change quickly. I could easily this team emerging from a stretch of three or four practice suddenly looking much better. Within the span of a week or two, this team might look like the team that we all saw whip Norte Dame and Duke just a few weeks back. If that improvement started this week, MSU might just be able to weasel back in the Big Ten race.
Then again, this team might continue to struggle, and we could see an ending much closer to that of the 2011 season, where Coach Izzo honestly seemed like he just wanted to hit the reset button by mid-February and be done with that group of guys. But, that type of ending is more the exception than the rule. Either way, Coach Izzo has his work cut out for him. But, as stated above, I believe that there is no better person in the world to figure this out.
That is all for today. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Huskers!
MEN'S BASKETBALL Dr. G&W Odds Update (Blue Christmas)
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 1 Replies
The last time I provided a metrics and odds update for Michigan State and the Big Ten, the situation was much different. The Spartans were undefeated and in the top-five. The Big Ten campaign was about to start and many prognosticators were starting to predict that Michigan State might just win a fourth consecutive Big Ten regular season title.
But, Michigan State took a trip to Evanston, Illinois and came back with an “L.” Then, the Spartans’ Christmas Day house guest left MSU fans feeling blue. Now, MSU is 0-2 to start Big Ten play. How bad is it? I have once again crunched the number and I think that I have the answer.
Before looking at the data, however, I will note that I have made a significant improvement to my simulation. I found a few old mid-season Kenpom data files on my hard drive for the 2019 season. This gave me a way to estimate the how much the adjusted efficiency data is likely to change over time. Figure 1 below compares these changes for all Division One teams between Jan. 4th, 2019 and the final pre-tournament data in 2019 relative to the adjusted efficiency margin values in early January.
Figure 1: Comparison of the changes in adjusted efficiency margins relative to the value on January 4th for all Division 1 teams in 2019.
As the Figure shows, the standard deviation of efficiency margin movement over this timeframe is about 3.5 and the range is about plus-or-minus roughly 10. The distribution also appears to be basically Gaussian/Normal and it does not depend on the quality of any given team. Furthermore, this range and standard deviation appears to decrease linearly down to zero on Selection Sunday.
With these parameters, it is straightforward to inject the proper amount of uncertainty into the simulation. I am making the assumption that the final pre-tournament efficiency margin for every team is the “correct” value for that team and that it just takes the full season of accumulated data to figure that out. In this way I can use a random number generator in each simulation cycle to assign “true” efficiency margin to each team based on the current efficiency margin value and the number of days left until Selection Sunday. I will use this method going forward.
Current Standings and Odds Update
With this in mind, let’s take a look at the current position of MSU and the rest of the Big Ten, starting with my enhanced Big Ten standings. Table 1 below shows the current Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin and rank of all 14 Big Ten teams, along with the current record and winning percentage. In addition, I have included each team’s “plus/minus” rating, which is simply the number of road wins minus the number of home losses. Finally there are two columns for “luck” and expected wins, which are related.
Basically, expected wins are the number of expected wins a team should have up to this point based on the retroactive projected win probabilities for the games that are already finished. The parameter I call “luck” is the different between the current number of wins and the expected number of wins.
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings for 12/27/2020
Despite the fact that the most Big Ten games that any team has played is four, there are only three total undefeated teams in conference play: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern. Furthermore, the road team has only won only five of the current 17 games played so far.
As for “luck,” it is still early for these numbers to mean much, but so far MSU seems pretty unlucky. Based on the updated expected win values for the Northwestern and Wisconsin game, more likely than not, MSU should have won one (0.86, exactly) of the two games so far. Now, perhaps this is due to “luck” and perhaps it is “grit,” or perhaps it is just that the Spartans are still overrated. In any event, MSU is still 0-2 and near the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
The updated Big Ten win matrix is shown below in Table 2.
Table 2: Big Ten expected win totals and win matrix for 12/27/2020
As of now, the Spartans’ expected win total has dropped to 8.77 and the odds of finishing at .500 or better is at only 39 percent. The most likely record is 9-11, which would be the worst finish in Tom Izzo’s tenure, as he has never finished under .500 in league play. Meanwhile, Wisconsin really solidified its position as the Big Ten front-runner. The Badgers’ expected win total in at 14.28 which is a full game greater than the next best team, Illinois.
As for the impact on the odds to win or share a Big Ten title, that is summarized below in Table 3.
Table 3: Big Ten regular season champion odds and win matrix for 12/27/2020
MSU’s odds to share the Big Ten title have dropped to just 1.2 percent. This includes the scenarios where the Spartans’ “true” Kenpom efficiency margin is actually much higher than the current value of 17.87.
The reason for this is due in large measure to the current position of Wisconsin. As the table shows, the Badgers now project to have almost a 50 percent chance to win the Big Ten. Furthermore, the table suggests that there is now almost a 60 percent chance that the final record of the Big Ten champ(s) will be 16-4 or better. In order the MSU to reach this record, the Spartans would need to close with a 16-2 record, which seems very, very difficult.
Strength of Schedule Update
I spent a lot of time a month ago analyzing the idea of strength of schedule using the preseason Kenpom data. The general method that I used calculates the number of expected wins for each schedule assuming that it is played by an average power five team. As teams play and the data shows that they are either better or worse than expected, the relative strengths of schedule also change. Below I show the updated strength of schedule data for the Big Ten.
Figure 2: Big Ten strengths of schedule on 12/27/2020
In the preseason, Wisconsin had a notable schedule advantage over the rest of the conference but the updated numbers now show Illinois and Purdue neck-and-neck with the Badgers. The Boilermakers now actually have a slightly easier schedule overall. MSU’s schedule remains in the middle of the pack.
Now that a few a games are in the books, it is also possible to calculate the remaining strength of schedule, which is the same normalized expected win calculation that only sums of victory probabilities for all remaining games.
However, not all teams have the same number of game remaining. To normalize for this imbalance, I divided the expected number of remaining wins for each schedule by the total number of remaining games to arrive at a the win percentage that an average Power Five would expect. The results of that calculation are shown below in Figure 3.
Figure 3: Strengths of schedule for the remaining Big Ten games on 12/27/202
In this case, it is actually Purdue that still has the easiest remaining schedule, but Rutgers and Illinois are not far behind. Michigan State is still in the middle of the pack. It is also notable that the other two undefeated teams, Michigan and especially Northwestern, have the two hardest remaining conference schedules. This helps to explain why Wisconsin has such a commanding lead in the regular season race.
Big Ten Tournament Projection
If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 17 total Big Ten games have been played and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible even now to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results. Table 4 below provides that update.
Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds on 12/27/2020
Based on the combined odds for the entire simulation, the top four seeds of the Big Ten Tournament are currently projected to be Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. MSU currently is checking in as the No. 11 seed, which would again be the worst seed that Tom Izzo has ever drawn in the Big Ten post season, by a long shot. The previous worst seed was a No. 7 seed which has happened twice, once in 2007 and once in 2011. Since 2011, MSU has been no worse than the No. 3 seed once, which was in 2017 when the Spartans were the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
That said, Michigan State still projects to have a 10 percent chance to make it into the top four (which would earn the coveted double bye) and a 60 percent chance to at least avoid the opening day. Also note, in the scenario where the current projected favorite wins all the remaining Big Ten games, MSU would finish at only 8-12 in Big Ten play, which would also earn MSU just the No. 11. In both cases, MSU would earn a date to play on Wednesday of the Big Ten Tournament for the first time in history.
Michigan State’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule
Following MSU’s loss to Wisconsin, I can update the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.
Figure 3: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot showing the trajectory of MSU's current season, past MSU teams, past NCAA Champions, and current likely contenders
As we can see and we have experienced, the trajectory of the Spartans’ season has continued downward (as noted by the solid green line). In general, the adjusted offensive efficiency for MSU has increased slightly, but the adjusted defensive efficiency has been dropping steadily. Shockingly, however, MSU is still one of only 16 teams whose current combination of offensive and defensive efficiency remains in the blue shaded “championship zone.”
That said, the current position of the 2020-21 Michigan State team is rapidly approaching that of past Izzo teams that did not make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Right now, the current profile most closely resembles that of the 2002 and 2017 MSU team.
I have also added an additional feature to this plot, which is the green “error bar” oval around the MSU data point. This oval represents one standard deviation in both the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency expected this many days from Selection Sunday, based on the analysis of the 2019 Kenpom data discussed above (in Figure 1).
If we allow ourselves to be optimistic, MSU still has a reasonable chance, from a historical perspective, to improve. Just from a pure basketball standpoint, this MSU team has shown flashes of what they can be during long stretches of the Notre Dame and Duke games. I believe that the Spartans have it in them. But, there are only 18 more regular season chances to prove it. Time is already running out.
Just to provide a recent and relevant example of how things can improve, I would like to bring up the specific case of the 2019 Purdue team. The historical data that I found showed that on Jan. 4 of 2019, Purdue was unranked with a 9-5 record that would soon become 9-6 due to a thrashing at the hands of the Spartans in East Lansing. The Boilermakers were ranked No. 19 in Kenpom with an adjusted efficiency margin of 19.6.
After the loss to Michigan State, Purdue would only lose three more games prior to the NCAA tournament. The Boilermakers entered the tournament as a No. 3 seed and a No. 13 national ranking. At this point the Boilermakers’ Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin had climbed to 26.0, good for No. 10 overall. That team would go on to come within an eyelash of beating eventual National Champion Virginia in the Regional Final. MSU’s current efficiency margin is worse than that of Purdue in 2019, but there is also a little more time left.
Finally, Figure 5 below gives the updated projected game-by-game odds for the Spartans’ remaining regular season schedule.
Figure 4: Odds for all of MSU's remaining games, based on current Kenpom efficiency data
Several of the remaining games on the Spartans’ schedule that previously were projecting as wins have crossed the center line and now project as losses, including MSU’s next game at Minnesota. The three games after that (at Nebraska, versus Rutgers, and versus Purdue) still all project as likely wins, but they all more accurately might be described as “must wins.” The back end of the schedule still looks brutal and MSU needs to start racking up wins quickly... before it’s too late.
In total, that was a pretty depressing update for this Holiday Weekend. Sorry. While the numbers are currently apt to make us feel a bit blue, there are still a lot of games left to be played with one of the best coaches of all time on the bench trying to figure this all out. As stated above Coach Izzo has never finished with a losing record in Big Ten play and I do not expect that streak (or the Tournament streak) to end this year. I have faith that this team will turn things around. But, the odds that things will get fixed in time to hang a banner are decreasing rapidly.
That is all for today. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Gophers!
But, Michigan State took a trip to Evanston, Illinois and came back with an “L.” Then, the Spartans’ Christmas Day house guest left MSU fans feeling blue. Now, MSU is 0-2 to start Big Ten play. How bad is it? I have once again crunched the number and I think that I have the answer.
Before looking at the data, however, I will note that I have made a significant improvement to my simulation. I found a few old mid-season Kenpom data files on my hard drive for the 2019 season. This gave me a way to estimate the how much the adjusted efficiency data is likely to change over time. Figure 1 below compares these changes for all Division One teams between Jan. 4th, 2019 and the final pre-tournament data in 2019 relative to the adjusted efficiency margin values in early January.
Figure 1: Comparison of the changes in adjusted efficiency margins relative to the value on January 4th for all Division 1 teams in 2019.
As the Figure shows, the standard deviation of efficiency margin movement over this timeframe is about 3.5 and the range is about plus-or-minus roughly 10. The distribution also appears to be basically Gaussian/Normal and it does not depend on the quality of any given team. Furthermore, this range and standard deviation appears to decrease linearly down to zero on Selection Sunday.
With these parameters, it is straightforward to inject the proper amount of uncertainty into the simulation. I am making the assumption that the final pre-tournament efficiency margin for every team is the “correct” value for that team and that it just takes the full season of accumulated data to figure that out. In this way I can use a random number generator in each simulation cycle to assign “true” efficiency margin to each team based on the current efficiency margin value and the number of days left until Selection Sunday. I will use this method going forward.
Current Standings and Odds Update
With this in mind, let’s take a look at the current position of MSU and the rest of the Big Ten, starting with my enhanced Big Ten standings. Table 1 below shows the current Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin and rank of all 14 Big Ten teams, along with the current record and winning percentage. In addition, I have included each team’s “plus/minus” rating, which is simply the number of road wins minus the number of home losses. Finally there are two columns for “luck” and expected wins, which are related.
Basically, expected wins are the number of expected wins a team should have up to this point based on the retroactive projected win probabilities for the games that are already finished. The parameter I call “luck” is the different between the current number of wins and the expected number of wins.
Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings for 12/27/2020
Despite the fact that the most Big Ten games that any team has played is four, there are only three total undefeated teams in conference play: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern. Furthermore, the road team has only won only five of the current 17 games played so far.
As for “luck,” it is still early for these numbers to mean much, but so far MSU seems pretty unlucky. Based on the updated expected win values for the Northwestern and Wisconsin game, more likely than not, MSU should have won one (0.86, exactly) of the two games so far. Now, perhaps this is due to “luck” and perhaps it is “grit,” or perhaps it is just that the Spartans are still overrated. In any event, MSU is still 0-2 and near the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
The updated Big Ten win matrix is shown below in Table 2.
Table 2: Big Ten expected win totals and win matrix for 12/27/2020
As of now, the Spartans’ expected win total has dropped to 8.77 and the odds of finishing at .500 or better is at only 39 percent. The most likely record is 9-11, which would be the worst finish in Tom Izzo’s tenure, as he has never finished under .500 in league play. Meanwhile, Wisconsin really solidified its position as the Big Ten front-runner. The Badgers’ expected win total in at 14.28 which is a full game greater than the next best team, Illinois.
As for the impact on the odds to win or share a Big Ten title, that is summarized below in Table 3.
Table 3: Big Ten regular season champion odds and win matrix for 12/27/2020
MSU’s odds to share the Big Ten title have dropped to just 1.2 percent. This includes the scenarios where the Spartans’ “true” Kenpom efficiency margin is actually much higher than the current value of 17.87.
The reason for this is due in large measure to the current position of Wisconsin. As the table shows, the Badgers now project to have almost a 50 percent chance to win the Big Ten. Furthermore, the table suggests that there is now almost a 60 percent chance that the final record of the Big Ten champ(s) will be 16-4 or better. In order the MSU to reach this record, the Spartans would need to close with a 16-2 record, which seems very, very difficult.
Strength of Schedule Update
I spent a lot of time a month ago analyzing the idea of strength of schedule using the preseason Kenpom data. The general method that I used calculates the number of expected wins for each schedule assuming that it is played by an average power five team. As teams play and the data shows that they are either better or worse than expected, the relative strengths of schedule also change. Below I show the updated strength of schedule data for the Big Ten.
Figure 2: Big Ten strengths of schedule on 12/27/2020
In the preseason, Wisconsin had a notable schedule advantage over the rest of the conference but the updated numbers now show Illinois and Purdue neck-and-neck with the Badgers. The Boilermakers now actually have a slightly easier schedule overall. MSU’s schedule remains in the middle of the pack.
Now that a few a games are in the books, it is also possible to calculate the remaining strength of schedule, which is the same normalized expected win calculation that only sums of victory probabilities for all remaining games.
However, not all teams have the same number of game remaining. To normalize for this imbalance, I divided the expected number of remaining wins for each schedule by the total number of remaining games to arrive at a the win percentage that an average Power Five would expect. The results of that calculation are shown below in Figure 3.
Figure 3: Strengths of schedule for the remaining Big Ten games on 12/27/202
In this case, it is actually Purdue that still has the easiest remaining schedule, but Rutgers and Illinois are not far behind. Michigan State is still in the middle of the pack. It is also notable that the other two undefeated teams, Michigan and especially Northwestern, have the two hardest remaining conference schedules. This helps to explain why Wisconsin has such a commanding lead in the regular season race.
Big Ten Tournament Projection
If the season ended today, that would be weird, because only 17 total Big Ten games have been played and the teams have not played the same number of games. That said, it is possible even now to make projections about the Big Ten tournament based on the simulated results. Table 4 below provides that update.
Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds on 12/27/2020
Based on the combined odds for the entire simulation, the top four seeds of the Big Ten Tournament are currently projected to be Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. MSU currently is checking in as the No. 11 seed, which would again be the worst seed that Tom Izzo has ever drawn in the Big Ten post season, by a long shot. The previous worst seed was a No. 7 seed which has happened twice, once in 2007 and once in 2011. Since 2011, MSU has been no worse than the No. 3 seed once, which was in 2017 when the Spartans were the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
That said, Michigan State still projects to have a 10 percent chance to make it into the top four (which would earn the coveted double bye) and a 60 percent chance to at least avoid the opening day. Also note, in the scenario where the current projected favorite wins all the remaining Big Ten games, MSU would finish at only 8-12 in Big Ten play, which would also earn MSU just the No. 11. In both cases, MSU would earn a date to play on Wednesday of the Big Ten Tournament for the first time in history.
Michigan State’s Current Position and Upcoming Schedule
Following MSU’s loss to Wisconsin, I can update the Kenpom scatter plot to show the current position of MSU relative to past MSU teams, previous champions, and the current field of national contenders.
Figure 3: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot showing the trajectory of MSU's current season, past MSU teams, past NCAA Champions, and current likely contenders
As we can see and we have experienced, the trajectory of the Spartans’ season has continued downward (as noted by the solid green line). In general, the adjusted offensive efficiency for MSU has increased slightly, but the adjusted defensive efficiency has been dropping steadily. Shockingly, however, MSU is still one of only 16 teams whose current combination of offensive and defensive efficiency remains in the blue shaded “championship zone.”
That said, the current position of the 2020-21 Michigan State team is rapidly approaching that of past Izzo teams that did not make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Right now, the current profile most closely resembles that of the 2002 and 2017 MSU team.
I have also added an additional feature to this plot, which is the green “error bar” oval around the MSU data point. This oval represents one standard deviation in both the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency expected this many days from Selection Sunday, based on the analysis of the 2019 Kenpom data discussed above (in Figure 1).
If we allow ourselves to be optimistic, MSU still has a reasonable chance, from a historical perspective, to improve. Just from a pure basketball standpoint, this MSU team has shown flashes of what they can be during long stretches of the Notre Dame and Duke games. I believe that the Spartans have it in them. But, there are only 18 more regular season chances to prove it. Time is already running out.
Just to provide a recent and relevant example of how things can improve, I would like to bring up the specific case of the 2019 Purdue team. The historical data that I found showed that on Jan. 4 of 2019, Purdue was unranked with a 9-5 record that would soon become 9-6 due to a thrashing at the hands of the Spartans in East Lansing. The Boilermakers were ranked No. 19 in Kenpom with an adjusted efficiency margin of 19.6.
After the loss to Michigan State, Purdue would only lose three more games prior to the NCAA tournament. The Boilermakers entered the tournament as a No. 3 seed and a No. 13 national ranking. At this point the Boilermakers’ Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin had climbed to 26.0, good for No. 10 overall. That team would go on to come within an eyelash of beating eventual National Champion Virginia in the Regional Final. MSU’s current efficiency margin is worse than that of Purdue in 2019, but there is also a little more time left.
Finally, Figure 5 below gives the updated projected game-by-game odds for the Spartans’ remaining regular season schedule.
Figure 4: Odds for all of MSU's remaining games, based on current Kenpom efficiency data
Several of the remaining games on the Spartans’ schedule that previously were projecting as wins have crossed the center line and now project as losses, including MSU’s next game at Minnesota. The three games after that (at Nebraska, versus Rutgers, and versus Purdue) still all project as likely wins, but they all more accurately might be described as “must wins.” The back end of the schedule still looks brutal and MSU needs to start racking up wins quickly... before it’s too late.
In total, that was a pretty depressing update for this Holiday Weekend. Sorry. While the numbers are currently apt to make us feel a bit blue, there are still a lot of games left to be played with one of the best coaches of all time on the bench trying to figure this all out. As stated above Coach Izzo has never finished with a losing record in Big Ten play and I do not expect that streak (or the Tournament streak) to end this year. I have faith that this team will turn things around. But, the odds that things will get fixed in time to hang a banner are decreasing rapidly.
That is all for today. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Gophers!
HOCKEY Commitment with prior college experience
- By JD_Jerbear
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 9 Replies
HOCKEY Good read on life on the road for ASU
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 1 Replies
Inside Arizona State's 36-day road trip to start their season
After 1,517 miles driven around the Midwest (and 3,341 miles flown), the Sun Devils returned to Tempe with many a story to tell.
HOCKEY Michigan State at Notre Dame Game #2
- By MSUStudent
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 41 Replies
MEN'S BASKETBALL Dr. G&W Hoops Analysis: MSU's Schedule
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
- 1 Replies
Over the past several weeks, I have presented a series of analyses where I used Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency data to make various projections about the upcoming Big Ten basketball season. While the robustness of this type of efficiency data this early and in such an unusual season is certainly debatable, it does provide a useful tool with which one can objectively look at the upcoming season.
As MSU prepares to take on the first Big Ten opponent of the year on Sunday in Evanston, I thought that it would be a good exercise to look at MSU’s entire schedule as a whole to get a feel for how the season might ebb and flow. To conduct this analysis, I used the current Kenpom data and projected the current win probability for all 20 of MSU’s currently scheduled games. The full schedule is visualized below in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Projected win probabilities for MSU's 2020-21 basketball schedule with road games denoted by the black boxes
The logo on top of each bar represents MSU’s opponent and the black boxes indicate a road game. The bars are spaced based on the date of the game such that breaks before certain games (such as the six day break before the road game at Iowa) are more visible. If the current win probability is over 50 percent, I show the bar in green. If it is below 50 percent, the bar has stripped red lines.
As an overview, my analysis of the Kenpom data current projects that MSU will be favored in 13 of the 20 total Big Ten contests. In addition, the expected value for the total number of wins (which is equal to the sum of the win probabilities for all 20 games) is now at just over 11 wins. While I personally feel that Michigan State will likely end the season with more than 11-13 conference wins and a higher Kenpom efficiency margin, that is what the data says on Dec. 19.
A closer look at the schedule can give MSU fans a feeling for how the season might progress. For example, MSU’s schedule is relatively light right out of the gate. The current projections suggest that MSU will be at least a slight favorite in the first six Big Ten games and in eight of the first nine. MSU’s easiest three road games (at Northwestern, at Minnesota, and at Nebraska) all fall in the first four games. Only the road game at Iowa on Jan. 14 projects as a loss and MSU could very well be 12-0 coming into that game.
That said, due to the strength of the Big Ten, virtually none of the games on the schedule are gimmes. Based on expected value, MSU is only expected to win about three of the first five games and between five and six of the first nine. As I look at the early schedule, in addition to the road date in Iowa City, the biggest threats appear to be the road game at Minnesota and the home games against Wisconsin and Illinois. Those will all be tough, but winnable games.
If MSU can go 7-2 in this early stretch, I think that this would be a solid start to Big Ten play. If MSU can only go 6-3 or worse in this stretch, then I think the odds of the Michigan State capturing a fourth straight Big Ten title will certainly be in jeopardy.
The reason for this is that the backend of the schedule is significantly more challenging. Starting on Jan. 28, the Spartan begin a brutal gantlet of five games in 13 days, three of which are on the road: at Rutgers, at Ohio State, vs. Nebraska, at Michigan, and vs. Penn State.
The good news it that the two home games project to be two of the easiest games on the entire schedule, but the three road games are all tough. Based on expected value, three wins in this stretch would be an above average result. I should also note that late January and early February is historically the time when Tom Izzo’s teams usually hit a wall and drop a strange game or two. I believe that @Carl_N has some really good data on this historically. This stretch has all the markings of a mid-season mini-slump.
Unfortunately, the next group of five games does not provide much relief. The Spartans host Iowa, followed by two road games in the state of Indiana, a home game against the Buckeyes, and then a road game at Maryland. Kenpom only clearly favors the Spartan in the home game against Ohio State and the expected number of wins in this cluster of games is also between two and three.
The final game on the schedule is the senior day home finale versus the Wolverines. MSU does get a big of a breather in the form of a week off before this game, and I would expect a motivated, sharp effort. This is simply a must-win game that I expect the Green and White to win.
In order to win the Big Ten this year, MSU is likely going to need to win 15 or 16 games, most likely. As I look at the schedule, the Spartans are going to need to start strong and perhaps win at least eight of the first nine games to stay on this pace. Over the next 10 games, MSU is going to need to find a way to win six or seven in order to stay in the hunt. After that, just beat Michigan on March 7 and hopefully hang a banner after the game.
Championship Zone
The analysis above gives some context on the Big Ten race, but what about overall hunt for a National Title? Figure 2 provides a way to put the current MSU team into context with previous MSU teams, previous NCAA Champions, and the current field of contenders based on current adjusted Kenpom offensive and defensive efficiency.
Figure 2: Comparison of the Kenpom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency of selected teams in 2020-21 compared to past MSU teams and past NCAA champions.
This figure contains a ton of information. First, the shaded green area contains every NCAA champion back to 2002. As a general rule, historically a team needs to have an offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) of over 111 and defensive efficiency of less than 96 in order to cut down the nets in early April.
As of Friday, only 10 total teams fall into this region of the graph, including Big Ten schools Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State. That said, the majority of former champions (14 of the past 18) also had a total adjusted efficiency margin of over 25.0 prior to the NCAA Tournament. Only three current teams: Gonzaga, Baylor, and Villanova are in this company so far in 2020-21.
As for the Spartans, MSU started the season just outside of the “championship zone,” but following the win over Oakland, the offensive efficiency improved just enough for MSU to barely make the cut, based on there metrics. At the same time, however, the Spartans’ defensive efficiency has been slipping. This will be interesting to track as the season progresses.
Figure 2 also allows for the comparison of this year’s Spartan team to past Tom Izzo coached teams. As of today, the 2020-21 Spartan team most closely resembles the 2007 team, statistically. The 2007 team, which was led by junior Drew Neitzel only went .500 in Big Ten play and lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament to No. 1 North Carolina as a No. 9. seed.
On a more positive note, the profile of the 2020-21 team so far is also similar to the 2010 Final Four team as well as the 2003 team that lost to Texas in the Regional Final. Hopefully, as Big Ten play gets underway, we will see the Spartans’ trajectory improve both offensively and defensively. A nice benchmark to shoot for would be the 2009 team that made the National Championship game at Ford Field. An incremental improvement on both side of the court would push the 2021 MSU team in that direction.
That’s all for today. I plan to update the this plot as well as the season move along. As always, enjoy, and Go Green.
As MSU prepares to take on the first Big Ten opponent of the year on Sunday in Evanston, I thought that it would be a good exercise to look at MSU’s entire schedule as a whole to get a feel for how the season might ebb and flow. To conduct this analysis, I used the current Kenpom data and projected the current win probability for all 20 of MSU’s currently scheduled games. The full schedule is visualized below in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Projected win probabilities for MSU's 2020-21 basketball schedule with road games denoted by the black boxes
The logo on top of each bar represents MSU’s opponent and the black boxes indicate a road game. The bars are spaced based on the date of the game such that breaks before certain games (such as the six day break before the road game at Iowa) are more visible. If the current win probability is over 50 percent, I show the bar in green. If it is below 50 percent, the bar has stripped red lines.
As an overview, my analysis of the Kenpom data current projects that MSU will be favored in 13 of the 20 total Big Ten contests. In addition, the expected value for the total number of wins (which is equal to the sum of the win probabilities for all 20 games) is now at just over 11 wins. While I personally feel that Michigan State will likely end the season with more than 11-13 conference wins and a higher Kenpom efficiency margin, that is what the data says on Dec. 19.
A closer look at the schedule can give MSU fans a feeling for how the season might progress. For example, MSU’s schedule is relatively light right out of the gate. The current projections suggest that MSU will be at least a slight favorite in the first six Big Ten games and in eight of the first nine. MSU’s easiest three road games (at Northwestern, at Minnesota, and at Nebraska) all fall in the first four games. Only the road game at Iowa on Jan. 14 projects as a loss and MSU could very well be 12-0 coming into that game.
That said, due to the strength of the Big Ten, virtually none of the games on the schedule are gimmes. Based on expected value, MSU is only expected to win about three of the first five games and between five and six of the first nine. As I look at the early schedule, in addition to the road date in Iowa City, the biggest threats appear to be the road game at Minnesota and the home games against Wisconsin and Illinois. Those will all be tough, but winnable games.
If MSU can go 7-2 in this early stretch, I think that this would be a solid start to Big Ten play. If MSU can only go 6-3 or worse in this stretch, then I think the odds of the Michigan State capturing a fourth straight Big Ten title will certainly be in jeopardy.
The reason for this is that the backend of the schedule is significantly more challenging. Starting on Jan. 28, the Spartan begin a brutal gantlet of five games in 13 days, three of which are on the road: at Rutgers, at Ohio State, vs. Nebraska, at Michigan, and vs. Penn State.
The good news it that the two home games project to be two of the easiest games on the entire schedule, but the three road games are all tough. Based on expected value, three wins in this stretch would be an above average result. I should also note that late January and early February is historically the time when Tom Izzo’s teams usually hit a wall and drop a strange game or two. I believe that @Carl_N has some really good data on this historically. This stretch has all the markings of a mid-season mini-slump.
Unfortunately, the next group of five games does not provide much relief. The Spartans host Iowa, followed by two road games in the state of Indiana, a home game against the Buckeyes, and then a road game at Maryland. Kenpom only clearly favors the Spartan in the home game against Ohio State and the expected number of wins in this cluster of games is also between two and three.
The final game on the schedule is the senior day home finale versus the Wolverines. MSU does get a big of a breather in the form of a week off before this game, and I would expect a motivated, sharp effort. This is simply a must-win game that I expect the Green and White to win.
In order to win the Big Ten this year, MSU is likely going to need to win 15 or 16 games, most likely. As I look at the schedule, the Spartans are going to need to start strong and perhaps win at least eight of the first nine games to stay on this pace. Over the next 10 games, MSU is going to need to find a way to win six or seven in order to stay in the hunt. After that, just beat Michigan on March 7 and hopefully hang a banner after the game.
Championship Zone
The analysis above gives some context on the Big Ten race, but what about overall hunt for a National Title? Figure 2 provides a way to put the current MSU team into context with previous MSU teams, previous NCAA Champions, and the current field of contenders based on current adjusted Kenpom offensive and defensive efficiency.
Figure 2: Comparison of the Kenpom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency of selected teams in 2020-21 compared to past MSU teams and past NCAA champions.
This figure contains a ton of information. First, the shaded green area contains every NCAA champion back to 2002. As a general rule, historically a team needs to have an offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) of over 111 and defensive efficiency of less than 96 in order to cut down the nets in early April.
As of Friday, only 10 total teams fall into this region of the graph, including Big Ten schools Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State. That said, the majority of former champions (14 of the past 18) also had a total adjusted efficiency margin of over 25.0 prior to the NCAA Tournament. Only three current teams: Gonzaga, Baylor, and Villanova are in this company so far in 2020-21.
As for the Spartans, MSU started the season just outside of the “championship zone,” but following the win over Oakland, the offensive efficiency improved just enough for MSU to barely make the cut, based on there metrics. At the same time, however, the Spartans’ defensive efficiency has been slipping. This will be interesting to track as the season progresses.
Figure 2 also allows for the comparison of this year’s Spartan team to past Tom Izzo coached teams. As of today, the 2020-21 Spartan team most closely resembles the 2007 team, statistically. The 2007 team, which was led by junior Drew Neitzel only went .500 in Big Ten play and lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament to No. 1 North Carolina as a No. 9. seed.
On a more positive note, the profile of the 2020-21 team so far is also similar to the 2010 Final Four team as well as the 2003 team that lost to Texas in the Regional Final. Hopefully, as Big Ten play gets underway, we will see the Spartans’ trajectory improve both offensively and defensively. A nice benchmark to shoot for would be the 2009 team that made the National Championship game at Ford Field. An incremental improvement on both side of the court would push the 2021 MSU team in that direction.
That’s all for today. I plan to update the this plot as well as the season move along. As always, enjoy, and Go Green.
Tucker Show: With Maryland cancelled, focus on off-season
- Spartans Illustrated Message Board
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Good show with a lot of off-season and recruiting nuggets.
Tucker says he expects some good news tomorrow.
Tucker says that off-season conditioning will start on Jan 19.
michiganstate.rivals.com
Tucker says he expects some good news tomorrow.
Tucker says that off-season conditioning will start on Jan 19.
Tucker Show: With Maryland canceled, focus on off-season
Mel Tucker began his weekly The Mel Tucker Show on Thursday by acknowledging his disappointment that Michigan State’s