Every year, I post some bets that I would be willing to offer any UM fan. I always like to have these in my pocket, so that if a UM fan at work or in a bar starts shooting off their mouth, I offer them one of these bets for a significant amount of money. Obviously, I feel good about these 3 bets (especially the first 2). In most cases, they don't accept, but it is a good way to shut them up. You can say, "You keep telling us how wonderful Harbaugh is, but you won't even accept my bets?"
(Note - 4 years ago, I posted this type of thread. As some of you remember, our friendly UM poster "Boner4Blue" accepted one of my bets for $1000! It took 3 years, but the bet went in my favor, and Boner was honorable and paid off. That bet was a good one - I said Brady Hoke would having a losing record against MSU, OSU, and ND after 3 years. This is a perfect bet, because a good UM fan cannot accept that they are in for 3 more years of misery. Hoke ended up 4-5 in those games, so I almost lost due to the Fickel year loss by OSU, and a miracle win over ND in year 1)
Here are the new bets I propose - highly recommend either of the first two:
1) "Harbaugh will have a losing record against MSU and OSU in his first 3 years".
- This means he will go 2-4. It sounds like a good bet for them, but it isn't. If he loses both this year, which I would put at 90%+, then he can split the next two years and they still lose. Remember, you are talking about 2 teams rated in the Top 6, with very good depth and rosters, against a team that is ranked 44th in the country, doesn't have QB, and will have depth issues for 2 or 3 more years after this. They may go 0-6, but 2-4 is the best case, IMHO. This is great, because most delusional UM fans think it will turn around soon, because Harbaugh is a genius.
2) "Harbaugh will not win a B1G Championship in his first 3 years".
- This is the same bet, packaged differently. (Only with even more pitfalls for UM) In case you haven't already figured it out, you should offer this bet first. To win this bet, UM would have to beat both MSU and OSU in the same year (probably), avoid mis-steps against their other Big Ten foes, and then win the Championship game in Indy. Oh, and they have cross-over games with Wiscy the next 2 years after this season, meaning they might have to beat OSU, MSU and Wiscy twice to win a championship. Penn State and Minny also loom large. Not gonna happen, IMHO.
3) "The over/under for wins this year is 8.5. I'll Take the under".
-This one I am pretty comfortable with. I'm not sure where Vegas has the number set, but I think it is closer to 7 or 7.5. But you get to offer this bet, offer it at 8.5. If they decline it, you can offer 8, which means 8 is a push. Again, objectively, I think they will be 0-2 against MSU and OSU. Check out their schedule, a lot of tough road games.
What do you guys think of these three bets?
(Note - 4 years ago, I posted this type of thread. As some of you remember, our friendly UM poster "Boner4Blue" accepted one of my bets for $1000! It took 3 years, but the bet went in my favor, and Boner was honorable and paid off. That bet was a good one - I said Brady Hoke would having a losing record against MSU, OSU, and ND after 3 years. This is a perfect bet, because a good UM fan cannot accept that they are in for 3 more years of misery. Hoke ended up 4-5 in those games, so I almost lost due to the Fickel year loss by OSU, and a miracle win over ND in year 1)
Here are the new bets I propose - highly recommend either of the first two:
1) "Harbaugh will have a losing record against MSU and OSU in his first 3 years".
- This means he will go 2-4. It sounds like a good bet for them, but it isn't. If he loses both this year, which I would put at 90%+, then he can split the next two years and they still lose. Remember, you are talking about 2 teams rated in the Top 6, with very good depth and rosters, against a team that is ranked 44th in the country, doesn't have QB, and will have depth issues for 2 or 3 more years after this. They may go 0-6, but 2-4 is the best case, IMHO. This is great, because most delusional UM fans think it will turn around soon, because Harbaugh is a genius.
2) "Harbaugh will not win a B1G Championship in his first 3 years".
- This is the same bet, packaged differently. (Only with even more pitfalls for UM) In case you haven't already figured it out, you should offer this bet first. To win this bet, UM would have to beat both MSU and OSU in the same year (probably), avoid mis-steps against their other Big Ten foes, and then win the Championship game in Indy. Oh, and they have cross-over games with Wiscy the next 2 years after this season, meaning they might have to beat OSU, MSU and Wiscy twice to win a championship. Penn State and Minny also loom large. Not gonna happen, IMHO.
3) "The over/under for wins this year is 8.5. I'll Take the under".
-This one I am pretty comfortable with. I'm not sure where Vegas has the number set, but I think it is closer to 7 or 7.5. But you get to offer this bet, offer it at 8.5. If they decline it, you can offer 8, which means 8 is a push. Again, objectively, I think they will be 0-2 against MSU and OSU. Check out their schedule, a lot of tough road games.
What do you guys think of these three bets?
