1) Gun to my head, right now I think that MSU is going to wind up as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the Midwest, with Kansas, for better or worse.
2) Based on the current bracket matrix, the top four seeds in each region would line up like this, I think:
Midwest:
1. Kansas
2. Creighton
3. MSU
4. Louisville
South
1. Baylor
2. Florida State
3. Duke
4. Wisconsin
West
1. Gonzaga
2. San Diego State
3. Seton Hall
4. Oregon
East
1. Dayton
2. Villanova
3. Maryland
4. Kentucky
3) Based on a bit of a quirk, BYU is very likely to end up in the Midwest as well, somewhere on the No. 5 to No. 7 seed. The reason is that BYU refuses to play on Sunday, so they ONLY can be placed into the either Midwest or West regions, which play on Thursday / Saturday for the second weekend. With Gonzaga very likely taking the No. 1 seed out West, it is very difficult to place BYU in the same region. Depending on where MSU is, this could impact our path
4) Based on the current bracket matrix, three of the four teams on the No. 6 seed line are out of the Big Ten (Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State). The other No. 6 seed is West Virginia. If MSU a No. 3 seed, the No 6. seed would naturally be MSU's potential 2nd round opponent.
As we saw last year, it is possible to face a Big Ten team as early as the second round. But, it has to be a team that MSU has only played once, and of that group, Iowa is the only team in that category. This could also clearly impact MSU's path.
The concern that I have is that if I look at the list of potential opponents in the Midwest Region: Iowa, West Virginia, BYU, Creighton, and Kansas, only Creighton appears to be "over-seeded" based on a comparison of their projected seed and the adjusted Kenpom efficiency of that seed, historically.
In other words, in a year when the field is generally down, this potential draw for MSU looks pretty tough. I think it is in MSU's best interest to NOT be in the Midwest.
2) Based on the current bracket matrix, the top four seeds in each region would line up like this, I think:
Midwest:
1. Kansas
2. Creighton
3. MSU
4. Louisville
South
1. Baylor
2. Florida State
3. Duke
4. Wisconsin
West
1. Gonzaga
2. San Diego State
3. Seton Hall
4. Oregon
East
1. Dayton
2. Villanova
3. Maryland
4. Kentucky
3) Based on a bit of a quirk, BYU is very likely to end up in the Midwest as well, somewhere on the No. 5 to No. 7 seed. The reason is that BYU refuses to play on Sunday, so they ONLY can be placed into the either Midwest or West regions, which play on Thursday / Saturday for the second weekend. With Gonzaga very likely taking the No. 1 seed out West, it is very difficult to place BYU in the same region. Depending on where MSU is, this could impact our path
4) Based on the current bracket matrix, three of the four teams on the No. 6 seed line are out of the Big Ten (Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State). The other No. 6 seed is West Virginia. If MSU a No. 3 seed, the No 6. seed would naturally be MSU's potential 2nd round opponent.
As we saw last year, it is possible to face a Big Ten team as early as the second round. But, it has to be a team that MSU has only played once, and of that group, Iowa is the only team in that category. This could also clearly impact MSU's path.
The concern that I have is that if I look at the list of potential opponents in the Midwest Region: Iowa, West Virginia, BYU, Creighton, and Kansas, only Creighton appears to be "over-seeded" based on a comparison of their projected seed and the adjusted Kenpom efficiency of that seed, historically.
In other words, in a year when the field is generally down, this potential draw for MSU looks pretty tough. I think it is in MSU's best interest to NOT be in the Midwest.
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