I remember a story from a few years back about Admiral John Poindexter, a curious man who genius never seemed to be in public relations. Poindexter wanted to set up a betting market in the Middle East where people could bet on whether a terrorist attack was about to happen. The goal was to determine both the public mood (from small bettors) and any effort to cash in by people in the know. Anyway, Poindexter was fired for this.
The effort does give some insight into how people discount for future events based on the probability of those events happening, and how collectively well buy and sell optimism and pessimism to find a common mood price.
Clearly, the futures market on Donnie Corley has been in a correction (as the market says of a downturn toward a more realistic price) in recent weeks. I think in the Spartanmag market, the prices seem to range from "He's Green" to "He Gone," using two common terms that are not really my favorite. The tipping point between them seems to be, "No one recruit will make or break this class." We still see a lot of bullish, "I trust Coach D/Rico and he's not worried," and "MSU still leads." However, I starting to see more and more bearish "we already have 20 Plan A guys," and other indications that the poster has moved on.
I am not talking about MSU's recruiting class as a whole, much less the Spartan football team generally. I've never been this excited for a season (and I'm getting too old to be this excited). Things will work out.
Remember too, if we had just heard that there was this guy, Donnie Corley, and he had narrowed his list to four teams (one of which was MSU) we'd be very excited. There is roughly as much space between neutral and gone as there is between neutral and Green. And Judgment Day is really not until February.
The effort does give some insight into how people discount for future events based on the probability of those events happening, and how collectively well buy and sell optimism and pessimism to find a common mood price.
Clearly, the futures market on Donnie Corley has been in a correction (as the market says of a downturn toward a more realistic price) in recent weeks. I think in the Spartanmag market, the prices seem to range from "He's Green" to "He Gone," using two common terms that are not really my favorite. The tipping point between them seems to be, "No one recruit will make or break this class." We still see a lot of bullish, "I trust Coach D/Rico and he's not worried," and "MSU still leads." However, I starting to see more and more bearish "we already have 20 Plan A guys," and other indications that the poster has moved on.
I am not talking about MSU's recruiting class as a whole, much less the Spartan football team generally. I've never been this excited for a season (and I'm getting too old to be this excited). Things will work out.
Remember too, if we had just heard that there was this guy, Donnie Corley, and he had narrowed his list to four teams (one of which was MSU) we'd be very excited. There is roughly as much space between neutral and gone as there is between neutral and Green. And Judgment Day is really not until February.
