Well, it certainly has been a whirlwind in the last 24 hours for MSU basketball, and there has frankly been a lot of emotional responses from the majority of the fan base. But, my purpose to to provide an update on the numbers, and so here they are:
Basically, there is very little change in the Top 3 based on this weekend's performances. MSU, Purdue, and Michigan all won the games they were supposed to win, and thus all of their expected win totals creeped up just a bit. The most notable changes are farther down the list, where Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa have all clearly pulled away from the rest of the pack, but are also clearly not in the true contender category. After that, it is a question of whether any of the other teams can get to at least 10-10 in league play and if they can't, how far below 500 they can be and still get an NCAA bid. Minnesota and Ohio State both have decent cases, but there a chance that Illinois finishes ahead of them, which could be a problem. In any event, the trends for the Top Tier are shown here:
As for the odds to win or share the B1G title, those odds are shown here:
Again, these odds are not much different than they were mid-week. As for the odds for more specific events:
Odds of an MSU solo title: 39%
Odds of an MSU / Purdue tie: 23%
Odds of a Purdue solo title: 15%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 14%
Odds of a Purdue / UofM tie: 12%
Odds of a UofM solo title: 10%
Odds of a 3-way tie: 6%
For completeness, here are the trends for the rest of the conference:
So, that's what the numbers say, but as well all know, these numbers do not know about the injury to Nick Ward. In reality, MSU's true odds of winning the Big Ten are likely lower. But, how much lower?
That is pretty difficult to estimate. From a purely analytical point of view, there are two things that I can think of trying. The first is to run some numbers and see how much of a dent in the Kenpom efficiency margin is needed to drop MSU's odds to win or share a title to equal that of Purdue. When I do this, the answer is about 5-6 points per 100 possessions, from the current level of 30.7 down to around 24.7 (which is good enough to be ranked #10, right between Purdue and Wisconsin). Without Nick Ward, is MSU still as good as Purdue and Wisconsin on a neutral floor? Maybe. I am honestly not sure and your answer this question only reveals if you are an optimist or a pessimist.
The second idea is to watch the Vegas line in the next few games closely. Kenpom will estimate the final score of all future games, and his projections are usually dead on with the Vegas Line. I would expect that the Vegas line will be lower than the Kenpom line. But, how much lower? In my experience, the Vegas line is by far the best predictor of actual game results. That line shift will give us the best idea of how much real value, on average, Nick Ward gives. Kenpom currently has MSU as an 18-point favorite over Rutgers. When the real line comes out, this will be a powerful indicator of how good Vegas's analytics think MSU is without Ward. I have no idea what methods they use, but I believe they know more than anyone else does. From a probability stand point, I will trust those numbers.
But, at the end of the day, it is about winning and losing. If MSU is going to win the Big Ten, most likely we will need to go 4-1. The game at Michigan is going to be tough (but not un-winnable...) and the rest of the games need to be wins if MSU has a shot, at least, not without a substantial amount of luck (which is seems like we are due for...) I would argue that MSU's starting line-up, with Xavier instead of Nick, is still quite formidable, and I think Kithier is going to be more than serviceable off the bench. Honestly, an injury to another wing player would have been more devastating. For example, if McQuaid or Cash went down, I don't think there are any answers. While losing Ward even in the short term is terrible, there is a bit of a band-aid available that we have seen, and it's not terrible.
The way that I always like to think about things is in terms of potential vs. probability. If MSU was completely healthy, the potential would be through the roof. If MSU had been healthy all year, we are probably staring at a 24-2 record, a #1 ranking, and the label of the favorite to win the tournament. Even without Josh Langford, the Kenpom data alone suggests that MSU is still a National Title Contender. But, that is with a healthy Nick Ward. Without Ward, MSU's odds go down, but honestly they don't go to zero, especially if Nick is back by March. There is still enough talent on the roster for MSU to have the potential to win it all. That statement has been true ever since Izzo's 3rd year.
But, when injuries pile up, MSU's probability of winning the Big Ten and making a deep run in March go down. The margin(s) for error have gone down significantly. That said, the question that needs to be asked is what has to go right in order for MSU to meet this potential? Well, the remaining players on the roster need to dig a bit deep and start peaking. A bad game from a player or two will be lethal going forward. The best version of Cash, McQuaid, Henry, Tillman, Goines, Ahrens, and Kithier is pretty damn good. We are going to need to see that more often than that going forward.
How likely is that? Well, it isn't that likely, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Also, when it comes to March, you literally never know what might happen. If MSU can just hold on and secure a 2-seed or a 3-seed, with proper focus and a bit of luck (but not that much), they can certainly get to the 2nd weekend. Once you get to the 2nd weekend, Nick's hand might be better. It might even be 100%. If you get to the 2nd weekend, you also never know who you might face. Maybe you face a team like Gonzaga, but maybe you get a 10-seed instead, and if you win that game, maybe you get a 4-seed or a 5-seed instead of the 1-seed. Even if MSU does draw a 1-seed, a lot of weird things can happen in a 40-minute basketball game.
You never know what the future holds. I am not giving up on this team yet, and I don't think you should either. Go Green.
Basically, there is very little change in the Top 3 based on this weekend's performances. MSU, Purdue, and Michigan all won the games they were supposed to win, and thus all of their expected win totals creeped up just a bit. The most notable changes are farther down the list, where Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa have all clearly pulled away from the rest of the pack, but are also clearly not in the true contender category. After that, it is a question of whether any of the other teams can get to at least 10-10 in league play and if they can't, how far below 500 they can be and still get an NCAA bid. Minnesota and Ohio State both have decent cases, but there a chance that Illinois finishes ahead of them, which could be a problem. In any event, the trends for the Top Tier are shown here:
As for the odds to win or share the B1G title, those odds are shown here:
Again, these odds are not much different than they were mid-week. As for the odds for more specific events:
Odds of an MSU solo title: 39%
Odds of an MSU / Purdue tie: 23%
Odds of a Purdue solo title: 15%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 14%
Odds of a Purdue / UofM tie: 12%
Odds of a UofM solo title: 10%
Odds of a 3-way tie: 6%
For completeness, here are the trends for the rest of the conference:
So, that's what the numbers say, but as well all know, these numbers do not know about the injury to Nick Ward. In reality, MSU's true odds of winning the Big Ten are likely lower. But, how much lower?
That is pretty difficult to estimate. From a purely analytical point of view, there are two things that I can think of trying. The first is to run some numbers and see how much of a dent in the Kenpom efficiency margin is needed to drop MSU's odds to win or share a title to equal that of Purdue. When I do this, the answer is about 5-6 points per 100 possessions, from the current level of 30.7 down to around 24.7 (which is good enough to be ranked #10, right between Purdue and Wisconsin). Without Nick Ward, is MSU still as good as Purdue and Wisconsin on a neutral floor? Maybe. I am honestly not sure and your answer this question only reveals if you are an optimist or a pessimist.
The second idea is to watch the Vegas line in the next few games closely. Kenpom will estimate the final score of all future games, and his projections are usually dead on with the Vegas Line. I would expect that the Vegas line will be lower than the Kenpom line. But, how much lower? In my experience, the Vegas line is by far the best predictor of actual game results. That line shift will give us the best idea of how much real value, on average, Nick Ward gives. Kenpom currently has MSU as an 18-point favorite over Rutgers. When the real line comes out, this will be a powerful indicator of how good Vegas's analytics think MSU is without Ward. I have no idea what methods they use, but I believe they know more than anyone else does. From a probability stand point, I will trust those numbers.
But, at the end of the day, it is about winning and losing. If MSU is going to win the Big Ten, most likely we will need to go 4-1. The game at Michigan is going to be tough (but not un-winnable...) and the rest of the games need to be wins if MSU has a shot, at least, not without a substantial amount of luck (which is seems like we are due for...) I would argue that MSU's starting line-up, with Xavier instead of Nick, is still quite formidable, and I think Kithier is going to be more than serviceable off the bench. Honestly, an injury to another wing player would have been more devastating. For example, if McQuaid or Cash went down, I don't think there are any answers. While losing Ward even in the short term is terrible, there is a bit of a band-aid available that we have seen, and it's not terrible.
The way that I always like to think about things is in terms of potential vs. probability. If MSU was completely healthy, the potential would be through the roof. If MSU had been healthy all year, we are probably staring at a 24-2 record, a #1 ranking, and the label of the favorite to win the tournament. Even without Josh Langford, the Kenpom data alone suggests that MSU is still a National Title Contender. But, that is with a healthy Nick Ward. Without Ward, MSU's odds go down, but honestly they don't go to zero, especially if Nick is back by March. There is still enough talent on the roster for MSU to have the potential to win it all. That statement has been true ever since Izzo's 3rd year.
But, when injuries pile up, MSU's probability of winning the Big Ten and making a deep run in March go down. The margin(s) for error have gone down significantly. That said, the question that needs to be asked is what has to go right in order for MSU to meet this potential? Well, the remaining players on the roster need to dig a bit deep and start peaking. A bad game from a player or two will be lethal going forward. The best version of Cash, McQuaid, Henry, Tillman, Goines, Ahrens, and Kithier is pretty damn good. We are going to need to see that more often than that going forward.
How likely is that? Well, it isn't that likely, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Also, when it comes to March, you literally never know what might happen. If MSU can just hold on and secure a 2-seed or a 3-seed, with proper focus and a bit of luck (but not that much), they can certainly get to the 2nd weekend. Once you get to the 2nd weekend, Nick's hand might be better. It might even be 100%. If you get to the 2nd weekend, you also never know who you might face. Maybe you face a team like Gonzaga, but maybe you get a 10-seed instead, and if you win that game, maybe you get a 4-seed or a 5-seed instead of the 1-seed. Even if MSU does draw a 1-seed, a lot of weird things can happen in a 40-minute basketball game.
You never know what the future holds. I am not giving up on this team yet, and I don't think you should either. Go Green.
