It wasn't pretty last night, but the key thing is that MSU got the W and didn't completely crap the bed in the Big 10 race. On Tuesday night, Purdue managed to win at Indiana, and as such they have drawn near even with MSU. The updated win matrix (as always derived from Kenpom efficiency data) is shown below:
As the table shows, MSU now holds only a very slight lead over the Boilers in expected wins, and MSU actually has one less game left to play. So, if Purdue can win at Nebraska this weekend, they will almost certainly pass MSU. Also, it is notable that for NCAA tournament purposes, it looks to me like it is going to be 8 teams only. The Top 6 look very safe right now and I would guess that Ohio State and Minnesota are going to sneak in as well. Illinois is making an interesting late charge, but their non-conference performance was just miserable, so they are much more behind they 8-ball on that one.
As for the Top of the Big Ten, the expected win trends are shown below:
As for the odds to win or tie for the conference title, here are the updated odds:
So, both MSU and Purdue have over a 50% chance to win or share the title, while Michigan's odds are much lower (still having road games at Maryland and MSU will do that to you). As for the other specific odds:
Odds of a solo MSU Title: 32%
Odds of a Purdue / MSU tie: 27%
Odds of a Purdue solo Title: 21%
Odds of a Purdue / Michigan tie: 14%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 12%
Odds of a solo UofM tie: 9%
Odds of a 3-way tie: 6%
Once again, this does not explicitly take into account the loss of Nick Ward. So, it is reasonable to guess that MSU's actual odds are a bit lower.
For completeness, here are the trends for the rest of the Big Ten:
As for other comments, I will again be looking closely at the line for the upcoming Michigan game. Kenpom has the game as MSU +2, and my math suggests that it is closer to +1.5. I would expect the real line will be closer to +4 or +5, but this will again give us an indicator of the impact of losing Ward. Incidentally, the difference between +1.5 and +5 is the difference in having a ~45% chance of winning and a ~30% chance of winning, historically. That is pretty significant.
That said, both Michigan and Purdue have road games (@ Minnesota and @ Nebraska) before MSU travels to Ann Arbor. No matter how these games shake out, the landscape will look much, much different by Monday morning. In the worst case scenario (Purdue and Michigan win all games), Purdue becomes the prohibitive favorite (75%) and MSU's odds would drop to around 35%. However, in the best case (Purdue goes down in Lincoln, and Michigan losses both), MSU odds would rise to over 95%, which Michigan would essentially be toast (<3%). Cross your fingers, Spartan fans!
Enjoy!
As the table shows, MSU now holds only a very slight lead over the Boilers in expected wins, and MSU actually has one less game left to play. So, if Purdue can win at Nebraska this weekend, they will almost certainly pass MSU. Also, it is notable that for NCAA tournament purposes, it looks to me like it is going to be 8 teams only. The Top 6 look very safe right now and I would guess that Ohio State and Minnesota are going to sneak in as well. Illinois is making an interesting late charge, but their non-conference performance was just miserable, so they are much more behind they 8-ball on that one.
As for the Top of the Big Ten, the expected win trends are shown below:
As for the odds to win or tie for the conference title, here are the updated odds:
So, both MSU and Purdue have over a 50% chance to win or share the title, while Michigan's odds are much lower (still having road games at Maryland and MSU will do that to you). As for the other specific odds:
Odds of a solo MSU Title: 32%
Odds of a Purdue / MSU tie: 27%
Odds of a Purdue solo Title: 21%
Odds of a Purdue / Michigan tie: 14%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 12%
Odds of a solo UofM tie: 9%
Odds of a 3-way tie: 6%
Once again, this does not explicitly take into account the loss of Nick Ward. So, it is reasonable to guess that MSU's actual odds are a bit lower.
For completeness, here are the trends for the rest of the Big Ten:
As for other comments, I will again be looking closely at the line for the upcoming Michigan game. Kenpom has the game as MSU +2, and my math suggests that it is closer to +1.5. I would expect the real line will be closer to +4 or +5, but this will again give us an indicator of the impact of losing Ward. Incidentally, the difference between +1.5 and +5 is the difference in having a ~45% chance of winning and a ~30% chance of winning, historically. That is pretty significant.
That said, both Michigan and Purdue have road games (@ Minnesota and @ Nebraska) before MSU travels to Ann Arbor. No matter how these games shake out, the landscape will look much, much different by Monday morning. In the worst case scenario (Purdue and Michigan win all games), Purdue becomes the prohibitive favorite (75%) and MSU's odds would drop to around 35%. However, in the best case (Purdue goes down in Lincoln, and Michigan losses both), MSU odds would rise to over 95%, which Michigan would essentially be toast (<3%). Cross your fingers, Spartan fans!
Enjoy!
