It seems like the number of potential tie-breakers this year for the Big Ten Tournament is particularly nasty. I have been hammering away at some of the different scenarios, and I have some approximate results. Here is what I have now for MSU:
1-seed: 8%
2-seed: 31%
3-seed: 16%
4-seed: 20%
5-seed: 11%
6-seed: 9%
7-seed: 5%
This means the odds of a double bye are right at 75% right now or better.
I say "or better" because I just went through all 50 potential ties that MSU might find themselves in and in some cases the tie-breakers are bit too nasty to handle individually. So, in the more complex cases, I made the worst case scenario pick and used those in my calculation above.
That said, if MSU beats Penn State tonight, MSU is locked into a Top 4 seed. With 3 games on tap for tonight, the number of scenarios drops by a lot, and the math will get easier.
1-seed: 8%
2-seed: 31%
3-seed: 16%
4-seed: 20%
5-seed: 11%
6-seed: 9%
7-seed: 5%
This means the odds of a double bye are right at 75% right now or better.
I say "or better" because I just went through all 50 potential ties that MSU might find themselves in and in some cases the tie-breakers are bit too nasty to handle individually. So, in the more complex cases, I made the worst case scenario pick and used those in my calculation above.
That said, if MSU beats Penn State tonight, MSU is locked into a Top 4 seed. With 3 games on tap for tonight, the number of scenarios drops by a lot, and the math will get easier.
