As I was watching UofM play in the Regional Final game last Tuesday, I had a lot of thought about the status and history of the MSU - UofM rivalry. Obviously, UofM had a great season, but (as always) it seemed like they were getting a bit too much credit for some of their accomplishments. For example, most of us likely saw the tweet / stat about who UofM had the most tournament wins of any program back to 2013. The tweet that I saw then took the additional step connecting the dots to say that Michigan was, therefore, a "blue-blood..." Um, OK.
While that stat itself is true and certainly a great accomplishment, it is also true that a disproportionate number of those wins since 2013 came against lower seeded teams. In fact, prior to their win over No. 4 Florida State, Michigan had beat only one team seeded better than a No. 6 going back to 2014 (No. 2 Louisville in 2017). MSU had more highly quality Tournament wins in one weekend in 2019 than Michigan had in over seven years. And, then us not forget that if Kansas or Houston makes one more clutch free throw and/or Michigan doesn't hit a late 30-foot shot, the Wolverines have no Final Fours this century.
Fans on both sides can, have, and will continue to cherry pick stats that fit their narrative. All data tells a story.
Whether it is basketball or football, the play book for Michigan is always the same. When the Wolverines cycle up, this is the beginning of a new phase of dominance for Big Blue where they will wrack up Big Ten and National Titles on an rate that no one has every seen. When they have a down year, it is only temporary. Next year, they will return to glory. As for MSU, any success that the Spartan have in minimized in Ann Arbor. Yes, Tom Izzo has eight Final Fours, all at one school (good for 2nd all time in the modern, post-1979 era) but he has only played in two title games. Yes, Tom Izzo has the most upset wins in the history of the Tournament, but he has lost to a double digit seed three times since 2016. Yes, Tom Izzo is poised to break Bobby Knight's all-time Big Ten win record if he coaches 2-3 more years, but he is clearly past him prime.
The bar for MSU is placed impossibly high, while the bar for Michigan is placed just inches off of the floor... and most years they still can't clear it.
For the very big picture standpoint, Michigan is considered a football "blue blood" over the past 50 years, while MSU is considered to be a basketball powerhouse over the past 25, at least. So, it perhaps makes sense to compare MSU's success in football to UofM's success in basketball and vice versa. From this point of view, I had the following thought.
Michigan's current run in basketball (from 2013 to now) is more or less comparable to Mark Dantonio's run in football from 2010 to 2015. What if we compare them more directly?
In the past 25 years, MSU basketball has 10 Big Ten Regular season titles, 8 Final Fours, and 6 Big Ten tournament titles. Just in the past 10 years, MSU basketball has 4 Big Ten Regular season titles, 2 Final Fours, and 4 Big Ten tournament titles.
What if we compare this to the accomplishments of Michigan Football in the same time period when MSU had cycled up in football? It is hard to make a direct comparison of the two sports, but I would argue that a basketball Final Four is roughly equivalent to either making the Football playoffs or winning a NY6/BCS game such as the Rose Bowl. In the 10 years prior to 2015, what had Michigan accomplished in football? The record shows ZERO Big Ten titles and only 3 Bowl wins, only one of which (the 2011 Sugar Bowl) was BCS-level. If you extend the timeframe back 25 years prior to 2015, it is not quite as bad for Big Blue, they have 7 Big Ten titles and 4 notable Bowl wins, including two Rose Bowl wins in the 1990s.
The comparison is clear. MSU basketball has achieved more than UofM football has over the past 10, 25, or 50 years while MSU football has achieved more than UofM basketball over similar time horizons. But, the folks in Ann Arbor would likely argue to the death that this is not true. But, imagine a situation where in the past 10 years MSU basketball had zero Big Ten titles and only one Final Four. If Michigan were to cycle up in basketball to win just a single Big Ten title and make an elite eight, they would be claim that MSU-UofM is no longer even a rivalry, and that MSU basketball was doomed. Why isn't the narrative for Michigan football the same?
Anyway, these are just my random thought for today...
While that stat itself is true and certainly a great accomplishment, it is also true that a disproportionate number of those wins since 2013 came against lower seeded teams. In fact, prior to their win over No. 4 Florida State, Michigan had beat only one team seeded better than a No. 6 going back to 2014 (No. 2 Louisville in 2017). MSU had more highly quality Tournament wins in one weekend in 2019 than Michigan had in over seven years. And, then us not forget that if Kansas or Houston makes one more clutch free throw and/or Michigan doesn't hit a late 30-foot shot, the Wolverines have no Final Fours this century.
Fans on both sides can, have, and will continue to cherry pick stats that fit their narrative. All data tells a story.
Whether it is basketball or football, the play book for Michigan is always the same. When the Wolverines cycle up, this is the beginning of a new phase of dominance for Big Blue where they will wrack up Big Ten and National Titles on an rate that no one has every seen. When they have a down year, it is only temporary. Next year, they will return to glory. As for MSU, any success that the Spartan have in minimized in Ann Arbor. Yes, Tom Izzo has eight Final Fours, all at one school (good for 2nd all time in the modern, post-1979 era) but he has only played in two title games. Yes, Tom Izzo has the most upset wins in the history of the Tournament, but he has lost to a double digit seed three times since 2016. Yes, Tom Izzo is poised to break Bobby Knight's all-time Big Ten win record if he coaches 2-3 more years, but he is clearly past him prime.
The bar for MSU is placed impossibly high, while the bar for Michigan is placed just inches off of the floor... and most years they still can't clear it.
For the very big picture standpoint, Michigan is considered a football "blue blood" over the past 50 years, while MSU is considered to be a basketball powerhouse over the past 25, at least. So, it perhaps makes sense to compare MSU's success in football to UofM's success in basketball and vice versa. From this point of view, I had the following thought.
Michigan's current run in basketball (from 2013 to now) is more or less comparable to Mark Dantonio's run in football from 2010 to 2015. What if we compare them more directly?
In the past 25 years, MSU basketball has 10 Big Ten Regular season titles, 8 Final Fours, and 6 Big Ten tournament titles. Just in the past 10 years, MSU basketball has 4 Big Ten Regular season titles, 2 Final Fours, and 4 Big Ten tournament titles.
What if we compare this to the accomplishments of Michigan Football in the same time period when MSU had cycled up in football? It is hard to make a direct comparison of the two sports, but I would argue that a basketball Final Four is roughly equivalent to either making the Football playoffs or winning a NY6/BCS game such as the Rose Bowl. In the 10 years prior to 2015, what had Michigan accomplished in football? The record shows ZERO Big Ten titles and only 3 Bowl wins, only one of which (the 2011 Sugar Bowl) was BCS-level. If you extend the timeframe back 25 years prior to 2015, it is not quite as bad for Big Blue, they have 7 Big Ten titles and 4 notable Bowl wins, including two Rose Bowl wins in the 1990s.
The comparison is clear. MSU basketball has achieved more than UofM football has over the past 10, 25, or 50 years while MSU football has achieved more than UofM basketball over similar time horizons. But, the folks in Ann Arbor would likely argue to the death that this is not true. But, imagine a situation where in the past 10 years MSU basketball had zero Big Ten titles and only one Final Four. If Michigan were to cycle up in basketball to win just a single Big Ten title and make an elite eight, they would be claim that MSU-UofM is no longer even a rivalry, and that MSU basketball was doomed. Why isn't the narrative for Michigan football the same?
Anyway, these are just my random thought for today...
