I just noticed that the Bracket Matrix website has been updated to reflect yesterday's action in the majority of the brackets that they track. MSU has slipped to the "best" 3-seed, while UofM is the weakest 3-seed. This seems in line with Lunardi's bracket this morning. But I did some initial analysis on the data set.
MSU is listed as a 2-seed in 37 of the brackets (47%)
MSU is listed as a 3-seed in 39 of the brackets (49%)
MSU is listed as a 4-seed in 4 of the brackets (7%)
UofM is listed as a 2-seed in 4 of the brackets (5%)
UofM is listed as a 3-seed in 39 of the brackets (49%)
UofM is listed as a 4-seed in 32 of the brackets (43%)
Also,
MSU and UofM have the same seed in 25 of the brackets (32%)
MSU has a better seed than UofM in 52 of the brackets (66%)
UofM has a better seed than MSU in 2 of the brackets (3%)
Considering both teams are "in the clubhouse" it seems quite unlikely that UofM will jump MSU on the S curve and "steal" the last slot in Detroit (but not impossible)
That said, it is important to looks at the other teams near MSU on the S curve. I have said before, I will say again that as long as MSU is in the Top 8 of the teams roughly east of the Mississippi, we will still be in Detroit, unless the committee breaks with precedent. Right now, MSU is right at #8 (as #4 Kansas does not count).
#6 Purdue -- MSU beat Purdue in the only meeting, finished ahead of Purdue in the regular season standings, is ranked higher in both human polls, and honestly played Michigan closer in the BTT. Could MSU actually wind up above Purdue on the Final S curve? Not likely, but possible
#7 UNC -- MSU did beat them head-to-head. If UNC flames out early in the ACC tournament with 10 total losses, MSU might just wind up ahead of them as well. Unlikely, but possible.
#8 Cincinnati -- The Bearcats were the team that in principle has knocked MSU off the 2-line. If Cinci would have lost to Wichita State this Sunday, MSU's odds to stay in Detroit would have been much, much higher. Now, it is a bit of a toss up. An early flame out in the AAC tournament would be helpful.
#9 MSU
#10 Auburn -- They will get sent to Dallas, so they don't matter
#11 Tennessee -- This is the team that poses the most risk to MSU, for two reasons. First, they are a natural fit for the Nashville pod, just as MSU is a natural fit for the Detroit pod. So, there will be a push to keep the Vols there as opposed to send Cincinnati there. Second, they are the only team still playing on the 1-4 line that can really put enough pressure on MSU from the bottom to knock us out of Detroit. Root for the Vols to make an early exit from the SEC tournament, or at the very least pray they don't beat Auburn if the play each other.
#12 Michigan -- covered above
Possible wildcards:
#16 West Virginia -- If they win the Big 12 tournament, they might be a threat, but I doubt it.
#17 Clemson -- If they win the ACC tournament, they might be a threat, but I doubt it.
So, that is how I see it. But, once again, I do not have faith in the committee to actually use rational judgement. For all I know, they have Michigan as a 2-seed in the Detroit and MSU as a 4-seed in Boise. That is unlikely, but after their initial bracket a few weeks ago, I cannot rule it out.
MSU is listed as a 2-seed in 37 of the brackets (47%)
MSU is listed as a 3-seed in 39 of the brackets (49%)
MSU is listed as a 4-seed in 4 of the brackets (7%)
UofM is listed as a 2-seed in 4 of the brackets (5%)
UofM is listed as a 3-seed in 39 of the brackets (49%)
UofM is listed as a 4-seed in 32 of the brackets (43%)
Also,
MSU and UofM have the same seed in 25 of the brackets (32%)
MSU has a better seed than UofM in 52 of the brackets (66%)
UofM has a better seed than MSU in 2 of the brackets (3%)
Considering both teams are "in the clubhouse" it seems quite unlikely that UofM will jump MSU on the S curve and "steal" the last slot in Detroit (but not impossible)
That said, it is important to looks at the other teams near MSU on the S curve. I have said before, I will say again that as long as MSU is in the Top 8 of the teams roughly east of the Mississippi, we will still be in Detroit, unless the committee breaks with precedent. Right now, MSU is right at #8 (as #4 Kansas does not count).
#6 Purdue -- MSU beat Purdue in the only meeting, finished ahead of Purdue in the regular season standings, is ranked higher in both human polls, and honestly played Michigan closer in the BTT. Could MSU actually wind up above Purdue on the Final S curve? Not likely, but possible
#7 UNC -- MSU did beat them head-to-head. If UNC flames out early in the ACC tournament with 10 total losses, MSU might just wind up ahead of them as well. Unlikely, but possible.
#8 Cincinnati -- The Bearcats were the team that in principle has knocked MSU off the 2-line. If Cinci would have lost to Wichita State this Sunday, MSU's odds to stay in Detroit would have been much, much higher. Now, it is a bit of a toss up. An early flame out in the AAC tournament would be helpful.
#9 MSU
#10 Auburn -- They will get sent to Dallas, so they don't matter
#11 Tennessee -- This is the team that poses the most risk to MSU, for two reasons. First, they are a natural fit for the Nashville pod, just as MSU is a natural fit for the Detroit pod. So, there will be a push to keep the Vols there as opposed to send Cincinnati there. Second, they are the only team still playing on the 1-4 line that can really put enough pressure on MSU from the bottom to knock us out of Detroit. Root for the Vols to make an early exit from the SEC tournament, or at the very least pray they don't beat Auburn if the play each other.
#12 Michigan -- covered above
Possible wildcards:
#16 West Virginia -- If they win the Big 12 tournament, they might be a threat, but I doubt it.
#17 Clemson -- If they win the ACC tournament, they might be a threat, but I doubt it.
So, that is how I see it. But, once again, I do not have faith in the committee to actually use rational judgement. For all I know, they have Michigan as a 2-seed in the Detroit and MSU as a 4-seed in Boise. That is unlikely, but after their initial bracket a few weeks ago, I cannot rule it out.
