Now that the Big Ten regular season is almost over, it is time to start thinking about the possible scenarios in the Big Ten Tournament next week. I have still not found a great way to do a thorough calculation of the various tie-breakers, but I managed to sort-of brute force the calculations and last night I finally got all the formulas figured out such that I am confident in the odds. It also helps that with only 7 total regular season Big Ten games left, the number of possible scenarios is more manageable (only 128, down from over 30,000 just a few days ago). So, here is what I have:
Since Tuesday night, we have know the situation at the top. Once again, the winner of the MSU-UofM game will get the 1-seed. The loser will get the 3-seed unless Purdue blows their last game at Northwestern. All odds are derived for the most up-to-date Kenpom efficiency margins. MSU will be favored to beat Michigan, so MSU is the current favorite to get the 1-seed.
As we move down the chart, it is clear that Wisconsin and Maryland are locked into the 4 and 5 seed, with the Badgers with the inside track to the double bye. There are actually only 8 scenarios out of 128 where Maryland sneaks into the 4-seed slot, and they all involve Maryland beating Minnesota, Wisconsin losing to OSU, and both MSU and Purdue winning this weekend.
After that, things get a bit messier for seeds 6 to 12, but the matrix give the mostly likely result at each seed.
If I take this analysis one step further, it is not too difficult to calculate the odds for which team MSU will face on Friday. Without getting into details, here is the result:
This takes into account the odds that MSU will be either the 1-, 2-, or 3-seed as well as the predicted odds that (for example) Indiana will beat Ohio State in the 8/9 game. As you can see, MSU could face any one of 8 possible foes, but it is 50-50 that it will be either Indiana or Ohio State.
I think that we can all just prepare ourselves that it is going to be Indiana. Great.
Finally, based on the most likely bracket, I went ahead and simulated the whole BTT. Based on 1000 Monte Carlo style simulations, here are the odds for each team to make the semi-finals, finals, and cut down the nets:
So, right now, MSU is still the favorite to win the BTT. Both MSU and UofM have about a 50-50 shot to make the finals, which translates to only a ~25% chance that we have to all endure a 3rd match-up this year. Incidentally, if I make the assumption that MSU loses on Saturday and re-run the simulation, I get essentially the same odds. (Actually, MSU's odds went up slightly to about 36% as the 3-seed, but that might just be a sampling size error and not anything significant)
All this said, keep in mind that none of this analysis takes into account MSU or any other team's injury or suspension situation. It just assumes that each team will play to their season averaged level.
It is almost one-and-done time. Go Green and enjoy.
Since Tuesday night, we have know the situation at the top. Once again, the winner of the MSU-UofM game will get the 1-seed. The loser will get the 3-seed unless Purdue blows their last game at Northwestern. All odds are derived for the most up-to-date Kenpom efficiency margins. MSU will be favored to beat Michigan, so MSU is the current favorite to get the 1-seed.
As we move down the chart, it is clear that Wisconsin and Maryland are locked into the 4 and 5 seed, with the Badgers with the inside track to the double bye. There are actually only 8 scenarios out of 128 where Maryland sneaks into the 4-seed slot, and they all involve Maryland beating Minnesota, Wisconsin losing to OSU, and both MSU and Purdue winning this weekend.
After that, things get a bit messier for seeds 6 to 12, but the matrix give the mostly likely result at each seed.
If I take this analysis one step further, it is not too difficult to calculate the odds for which team MSU will face on Friday. Without getting into details, here is the result:
This takes into account the odds that MSU will be either the 1-, 2-, or 3-seed as well as the predicted odds that (for example) Indiana will beat Ohio State in the 8/9 game. As you can see, MSU could face any one of 8 possible foes, but it is 50-50 that it will be either Indiana or Ohio State.
I think that we can all just prepare ourselves that it is going to be Indiana. Great.
Finally, based on the most likely bracket, I went ahead and simulated the whole BTT. Based on 1000 Monte Carlo style simulations, here are the odds for each team to make the semi-finals, finals, and cut down the nets:
So, right now, MSU is still the favorite to win the BTT. Both MSU and UofM have about a 50-50 shot to make the finals, which translates to only a ~25% chance that we have to all endure a 3rd match-up this year. Incidentally, if I make the assumption that MSU loses on Saturday and re-run the simulation, I get essentially the same odds. (Actually, MSU's odds went up slightly to about 36% as the 3-seed, but that might just be a sampling size error and not anything significant)
All this said, keep in mind that none of this analysis takes into account MSU or any other team's injury or suspension situation. It just assumes that each team will play to their season averaged level.
It is almost one-and-done time. Go Green and enjoy.
