A few weeks ago in the middle of OU /Texas moving to the SEC and non stop talk of conference expansion and realignment - I joked that I may have been watching too many episodes of Ted Lasso, but I sensed that "relegation" was a much more likely outcome for college football.
FWIW - After returning from a week in NYC and frequent conversations with the major media players there was one consistent theme - "Contraction is college football’s future, not expansion."
CFB is essentially quickly moving to becoming a "two conference sport" - the BIG and the SEC.
The consensus view is that the SEC is in excellent shape for the current environment and whatever the future brings. . But the Big Ten, too, is in excellent shape. In fact, the Big Ten again outdid the SEC in terms of revenue generated and distributed to each member school in 2020:
Total Revenue
Big Ten: $768.9 million
SEC: $728.9 million
Pac-12: $533.8 million
ACC: $496.7 million
Big 12: $409.2 million
Per School Distributions
Big Ten: $54.3 million
SEC: $45.5 million
Big 12: $37 to $40.5 million
Pac-12: $33.6 million
ACC: $30.9 to $37 million
Whatever the future looks like, the Big Ten and the SEC are secure and ready. The question then becomes, what happens with the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC.
The Big 12 is in a precarious position with its two most powerful brands exiting. Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby has recently said that the remaining Big 12 members can expect to earn about $14 million less per school after Texas and Oklahoma are gone. That data point speaks to one thing: contraction.
The gap is going to continue to widen between the BIG 12 and PAC12 conferences and the “Big 2” of the SEC and Big Ten. These conferences might continue to exist as independent conferences for decades. or, they might merge or just announce some scheduling partnerships. The AAC might merge with the Big 12 as well. The point is that it doesn’t really matter. They’re likely going to continue to fall behind regardless of what the structure of each conference may be.
I think the ACC is essentially doomed as it is currently constructed. The tension will continue to increase between the few football powers and the rest of the conference as conferences such as the SEC announce larger and larger distributions to its members.
I have heard several "rumors" that the remaining three power conferences are looking to eliminate the non-earners and non performers - or at least significantly reduce the annual payouts to these schools. This is something Clemson is loudly clamoring for - their argument is "why should the likes of Wake earn the same as us".
As the new TV contracts are negotiated and a new playoff format is agreed to both the SEC and BIG will be generating total annual revenue well in excess of $1+Billion up to $1.5 Billion annually with each member school receiving distributions at least in the range of $80-$95 million per school by the end of the decade.
The other remaining conferences in the future might not be cohesive, regionally-tight groupings like we’ve known for years. But might be more like "Conferences of Convenience".
Those in the know expect the much discussed rumor of Clemson and FSU to the SEC to happen. And, as the ACC implodes despite their "iron clad contract" many think it's inevitable that Notre Dame will join the BIG - along with USC (Southern Cal) !
That's what I can share now. But, speculation run's wild as the dollars get bigger and the elite programs feeling less generous about "sharing".
FWIW - After returning from a week in NYC and frequent conversations with the major media players there was one consistent theme - "Contraction is college football’s future, not expansion."
CFB is essentially quickly moving to becoming a "two conference sport" - the BIG and the SEC.
The consensus view is that the SEC is in excellent shape for the current environment and whatever the future brings. . But the Big Ten, too, is in excellent shape. In fact, the Big Ten again outdid the SEC in terms of revenue generated and distributed to each member school in 2020:
Total Revenue
Big Ten: $768.9 million
SEC: $728.9 million
Pac-12: $533.8 million
ACC: $496.7 million
Big 12: $409.2 million
Per School Distributions
Big Ten: $54.3 million
SEC: $45.5 million
Big 12: $37 to $40.5 million
Pac-12: $33.6 million
ACC: $30.9 to $37 million
Whatever the future looks like, the Big Ten and the SEC are secure and ready. The question then becomes, what happens with the Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC.
The Big 12 is in a precarious position with its two most powerful brands exiting. Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby has recently said that the remaining Big 12 members can expect to earn about $14 million less per school after Texas and Oklahoma are gone. That data point speaks to one thing: contraction.
The gap is going to continue to widen between the BIG 12 and PAC12 conferences and the “Big 2” of the SEC and Big Ten. These conferences might continue to exist as independent conferences for decades. or, they might merge or just announce some scheduling partnerships. The AAC might merge with the Big 12 as well. The point is that it doesn’t really matter. They’re likely going to continue to fall behind regardless of what the structure of each conference may be.
I think the ACC is essentially doomed as it is currently constructed. The tension will continue to increase between the few football powers and the rest of the conference as conferences such as the SEC announce larger and larger distributions to its members.
I have heard several "rumors" that the remaining three power conferences are looking to eliminate the non-earners and non performers - or at least significantly reduce the annual payouts to these schools. This is something Clemson is loudly clamoring for - their argument is "why should the likes of Wake earn the same as us".
As the new TV contracts are negotiated and a new playoff format is agreed to both the SEC and BIG will be generating total annual revenue well in excess of $1+Billion up to $1.5 Billion annually with each member school receiving distributions at least in the range of $80-$95 million per school by the end of the decade.
The other remaining conferences in the future might not be cohesive, regionally-tight groupings like we’ve known for years. But might be more like "Conferences of Convenience".
Those in the know expect the much discussed rumor of Clemson and FSU to the SEC to happen. And, as the ACC implodes despite their "iron clad contract" many think it's inevitable that Notre Dame will join the BIG - along with USC (Southern Cal) !
That's what I can share now. But, speculation run's wild as the dollars get bigger and the elite programs feeling less generous about "sharing".
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