Here is part two of my annual preseason analysis of the upcoming college football season.
michiganstate.rivals.com
Lots of people make predictions over the summer, but very few people go back and analyze how those picks did. Sites like ESPN love to generate probabilities for teams to win their divisions, etc. but no one seems to check to see if these odds are accurate (they are not). For them to be accurate, events that they say have an 80% chance should actually happen 4 out of 5 times. Similarly, if they give a team only a 1% chance to win their conference, only one in 100 teams with those odds should win.
In this spirit, I did a deep dive on the picks from 2022, including what we got right, what we got wrong, and some hints as to why.
Spartans Illustrated - Dr. Green and White Analysis: 2022 Prediction Recap
Before we try to understand the 2023 preseason football rankings, let's see how last year's picks performed
michiganstate.rivals.com
Lots of people make predictions over the summer, but very few people go back and analyze how those picks did. Sites like ESPN love to generate probabilities for teams to win their divisions, etc. but no one seems to check to see if these odds are accurate (they are not). For them to be accurate, events that they say have an 80% chance should actually happen 4 out of 5 times. Similarly, if they give a team only a 1% chance to win their conference, only one in 100 teams with those odds should win.
In this spirit, I did a deep dive on the picks from 2022, including what we got right, what we got wrong, and some hints as to why.
