It's funny, really, how the math works out sometime. Back on Jan. 13, following the loss at Illinois, I wrote the following:
"I am here to tell you that there is no need to panic, at least not yet. The primary reason that I enjoy tinkering with sports-related numbers is that they help me to put the results that I see on the hardwood (or gridiron) into context. They also help to remove the emotional component of the game. Numbers are a tool that help us to understand the past and to predict the future. These numbers tell me that the Michigan State men's basketball team is going to be just fine...
"Starting on Sunday (with the home game against Rutgers), the Spartans' schedule gets much easier. Michigan State should be favored in every game except the road game at Wisconsin, with the home game against Illinois being a toss-up. My calculations say that the Spartans should go at least 8-4 in that stretch, which would get the Green and White back over .500 with three games remaining. But that assumes that the Spartans' luck will continue to be poor. If the bad luck starts to reverse, Michigan State could easily go 10-2 in that stretch (or better) and find itself sitting at 11-6 (or better) as the calendar turns to March with some serious momentum."
Well, well, well, it seems that the math might have known something after all. The Spartans did, in fact go 8-2 in the first ten games of the 12-game series mentioned above. The Spartans will be heavy favorites in the two home games against Iowa and Ohio State to complete the series.
But now that my mid-January prediction has come true, what does it mean for the rest of the season?
Following the win over the Wolverines, the Spartans actually have a slightly better chance to finish 13-7 than 12-8. MSU has passed Wisconsin to sit in third place in expected wins. There is even a VERY narrow path to get back into the Big Ten race (with a little help from Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa).
And then there is the NCAA Tournament. Not long ago, a lot of fans were very nervous about even keeping the current streak alive. Today, MSU looks very safe. I estimate about a 99% chance that MSU will make the Big Dance. Furthermore, the data that I use suggests that MSU's potential seed is much higher than the No. 8 or No. 9 seed that many are now predicting. Believe it or not, I have MSU as a No. 5 seed, right now. This is not a homer pick, either, it is 100% based on #math. As we have seen, the math is often pretty accurate.
Anyway, check out my latest update here:
michiganstate.rivals.com
"I am here to tell you that there is no need to panic, at least not yet. The primary reason that I enjoy tinkering with sports-related numbers is that they help me to put the results that I see on the hardwood (or gridiron) into context. They also help to remove the emotional component of the game. Numbers are a tool that help us to understand the past and to predict the future. These numbers tell me that the Michigan State men's basketball team is going to be just fine...
"Starting on Sunday (with the home game against Rutgers), the Spartans' schedule gets much easier. Michigan State should be favored in every game except the road game at Wisconsin, with the home game against Illinois being a toss-up. My calculations say that the Spartans should go at least 8-4 in that stretch, which would get the Green and White back over .500 with three games remaining. But that assumes that the Spartans' luck will continue to be poor. If the bad luck starts to reverse, Michigan State could easily go 10-2 in that stretch (or better) and find itself sitting at 11-6 (or better) as the calendar turns to March with some serious momentum."
Well, well, well, it seems that the math might have known something after all. The Spartans did, in fact go 8-2 in the first ten games of the 12-game series mentioned above. The Spartans will be heavy favorites in the two home games against Iowa and Ohio State to complete the series.
But now that my mid-January prediction has come true, what does it mean for the rest of the season?
Following the win over the Wolverines, the Spartans actually have a slightly better chance to finish 13-7 than 12-8. MSU has passed Wisconsin to sit in third place in expected wins. There is even a VERY narrow path to get back into the Big Ten race (with a little help from Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa).
And then there is the NCAA Tournament. Not long ago, a lot of fans were very nervous about even keeping the current streak alive. Today, MSU looks very safe. I estimate about a 99% chance that MSU will make the Big Dance. Furthermore, the data that I use suggests that MSU's potential seed is much higher than the No. 8 or No. 9 seed that many are now predicting. Believe it or not, I have MSU as a No. 5 seed, right now. This is not a homer pick, either, it is 100% based on #math. As we have seen, the math is often pretty accurate.
Anyway, check out my latest update here:
Dr. Green and White Basketball Odds Update: Chances Are
We explore the chances that MSU can sneak back into the Big Ten race and up the NCAA Tournament seed list.
