Last night's dramatic win over the Maryland Terrapins has placed the Spartans on the brink of Tom Izzo's record tying 11th Big Ten title. Michigan is playing tonight (and I generally have more time on Fridays anyway) so I will hold off on a former odds update until tomorrow. Until then, here is where the Big Ten title chase stands:
The Spartans odds are now over 80%, the highest for any Big Ten team all season. There is also now a 57.5% chance that the Spartans earn a solo title. Michigan's odds are now just 40%. Both team still control their own destiny's but Michigan is now the team with the tougher remaining schdule (as well as being less talented). Wisconsin is stll on life support with a 5.5% chance. Purdue, Maryland, and UCLA are not yet mathmatically eliminated, but none of those teams has odds better than 1-in-10,000.
Another way to think about the Big Ten race is that MSU's magic number is now three. Any combination of three MSU win and/or Michigan losses will earn the Spartans a title. If we assume Michigan State beats Michigan to close the season, the odds shoot up to 97%. If Spartans would like to enter the finale against Michgan with no pressure, MSU needs to win the next two and have Michigan drop once of its next three. MSU could even split the next two as long as Michigan drops two and we could all still enter the season finale stress free. At this point, MSU will have a chance to at least share the Big Ten title against Michigan as long as they don't lose to both Wisconsin and at Iowa.
As for the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans have not mathmatically locked down a double bye, but there is only one very unlikely scenario where MSU drops to the No. 5 seed. It involves the Green and White losing out and ending up in the three-way tie for third place with Maryland and UCLA. Michigan and Wisconsin share the title in this scenario. The odds of said scenario are less than 0.1%
The updated BTT seed matrix is shown below
There is close to a 90% chance that MSU earns either the No. 1 or the No. 2 seed. Even if MSU winds up sharing the title with Michigan, the Spartans would win the tiebreaker 90% of the time right now. So, plan to clear your schedule at noon on Friday, March 14. As for MSU's frst BTT opponent, Oregon grades out as the most likely overall, but most of the higher probability scenarios have Illinois and Indiana in the No. 8 and No. 9 slots.
As for the Big Dance, MSU is trending solidly as a No. 2 seed, which will almost certainly place them in Cleveland or Milwaukee in the first weekend. Both sites play on Friday and Sunday, so MSU should be well rested either way. The Regional location is still a crap shoot, but the West Region (San Fransisco) would be the least desirable. Those games are on Thursday and Saturday, which would make the travel from the previous weekend a little nasty.
Honestly speaking, the first round of the BTT, and the Sweet 16 are the two post-season rounds that concern me the most. This MSU team is deep. If they can win on Friday night at the BTT, I think their depth will carry them to a Tournament Title as they will have a major edge in fresh legs. As for the NCAA Tournament, this team will be a nightmare in a one-day prep scenario. As a No. 2 seed they should get to the second round where the one-day prep should carry them. I think that same thing could happen in the Regional Finals, honestly. But the Sweet 16 game could be tricky.
I especially do not like the idea of St. Johns hanging around the No. 3 seed line. That is the one team (or more specifically the one coach) that I want no part of. Izzo has two wins over Petino in the the Big Dance, but I don't want to press any luck. Give me anyone other than him.
The Spartans odds are now over 80%, the highest for any Big Ten team all season. There is also now a 57.5% chance that the Spartans earn a solo title. Michigan's odds are now just 40%. Both team still control their own destiny's but Michigan is now the team with the tougher remaining schdule (as well as being less talented). Wisconsin is stll on life support with a 5.5% chance. Purdue, Maryland, and UCLA are not yet mathmatically eliminated, but none of those teams has odds better than 1-in-10,000.
Another way to think about the Big Ten race is that MSU's magic number is now three. Any combination of three MSU win and/or Michigan losses will earn the Spartans a title. If we assume Michigan State beats Michigan to close the season, the odds shoot up to 97%. If Spartans would like to enter the finale against Michgan with no pressure, MSU needs to win the next two and have Michigan drop once of its next three. MSU could even split the next two as long as Michigan drops two and we could all still enter the season finale stress free. At this point, MSU will have a chance to at least share the Big Ten title against Michigan as long as they don't lose to both Wisconsin and at Iowa.
As for the Big Ten Tournament, the Spartans have not mathmatically locked down a double bye, but there is only one very unlikely scenario where MSU drops to the No. 5 seed. It involves the Green and White losing out and ending up in the three-way tie for third place with Maryland and UCLA. Michigan and Wisconsin share the title in this scenario. The odds of said scenario are less than 0.1%
The updated BTT seed matrix is shown below
There is close to a 90% chance that MSU earns either the No. 1 or the No. 2 seed. Even if MSU winds up sharing the title with Michigan, the Spartans would win the tiebreaker 90% of the time right now. So, plan to clear your schedule at noon on Friday, March 14. As for MSU's frst BTT opponent, Oregon grades out as the most likely overall, but most of the higher probability scenarios have Illinois and Indiana in the No. 8 and No. 9 slots.
As for the Big Dance, MSU is trending solidly as a No. 2 seed, which will almost certainly place them in Cleveland or Milwaukee in the first weekend. Both sites play on Friday and Sunday, so MSU should be well rested either way. The Regional location is still a crap shoot, but the West Region (San Fransisco) would be the least desirable. Those games are on Thursday and Saturday, which would make the travel from the previous weekend a little nasty.
Honestly speaking, the first round of the BTT, and the Sweet 16 are the two post-season rounds that concern me the most. This MSU team is deep. If they can win on Friday night at the BTT, I think their depth will carry them to a Tournament Title as they will have a major edge in fresh legs. As for the NCAA Tournament, this team will be a nightmare in a one-day prep scenario. As a No. 2 seed they should get to the second round where the one-day prep should carry them. I think that same thing could happen in the Regional Finals, honestly. But the Sweet 16 game could be tricky.
I especially do not like the idea of St. Johns hanging around the No. 3 seed line. That is the one team (or more specifically the one coach) that I want no part of. Izzo has two wins over Petino in the the Big Dance, but I don't want to press any luck. Give me anyone other than him.
