I am planning a more detailed analysis with some Izzo quotes later in the week, but I thought that I would drop in some quick data on the impact of last night's incredibly stupid and frustrating loss to Indiana. Note that the data and stats tracker is now fully updated. Here are the updated Big Ten regular season odds
I expected the results to by bad, but this is actually slightly worse than I thought they would be, as MSU's Kenpom efficiency also took a hit in the loss, which supresses the odds as well. The Spartans have now slipped a hair behind Wisconsin in odds by half of a percentage point (16.4% to 15.9%). The Spartans now only have a 1-in-6 chance to have a regular season banner.
Michigan has once again moved into first place with a 55% chance to win the Big Ten and a 30% chance at a solo title. I still think that they are riding a lucky streak and are bound to return to earth soon, but the wesels just keep on winning games by 2-4 points.
The other notable result is that MSU is in danger of falling out of the top four in the Big Ten Tournament seeding, which would result in the Spartans playing an extra game and starting the tournament on Thursday instead of Friday.
But the glass half full way to look at this is that if MSU wins out, the Spartans still win a solo Big Ten title. They still mow their own grass. Furthermore, the Purdue loss also means that a 15-5 record now may be enough to earn a Big Ten title. Had Purdue won last night, a 16-4 record would have almost been a requirement.
The other sort of good news is that when I run the numbers assuming the Michigan State loses out and finishes with just 19 wins, I still have the Spartans in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 9 seed. I would not try to test the theory, but I think that at least the NCAA Tournament streak is safe.
More comming soon.
I expected the results to by bad, but this is actually slightly worse than I thought they would be, as MSU's Kenpom efficiency also took a hit in the loss, which supresses the odds as well. The Spartans have now slipped a hair behind Wisconsin in odds by half of a percentage point (16.4% to 15.9%). The Spartans now only have a 1-in-6 chance to have a regular season banner.
Michigan has once again moved into first place with a 55% chance to win the Big Ten and a 30% chance at a solo title. I still think that they are riding a lucky streak and are bound to return to earth soon, but the wesels just keep on winning games by 2-4 points.
The other notable result is that MSU is in danger of falling out of the top four in the Big Ten Tournament seeding, which would result in the Spartans playing an extra game and starting the tournament on Thursday instead of Friday.
But the glass half full way to look at this is that if MSU wins out, the Spartans still win a solo Big Ten title. They still mow their own grass. Furthermore, the Purdue loss also means that a 15-5 record now may be enough to earn a Big Ten title. Had Purdue won last night, a 16-4 record would have almost been a requirement.
The other sort of good news is that when I run the numbers assuming the Michigan State loses out and finishes with just 19 wins, I still have the Spartans in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 9 seed. I would not try to test the theory, but I think that at least the NCAA Tournament streak is safe.
More comming soon.
