I must admit that the loss to Indiana on Tuesday night put me into a foul mood. I attended the game as a media member. I put my name onto our Spartans Illustrated sign-up sheet months ago based on my personal schedule. At the time, I had no idea that it was the game where Izzo had a shot to break Bob Knight's record.
Going into the game, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that MSU was going to roll Indiana. It felt like destiney. But we all know what happened...
Tha game tipped off at 9:00 pm and the sad post-game press conference and locker room scene took us to midnight. Be the time I got home and calmed down a bit, it was well after 1 a.m. I had a busy week at the day job this week and by Wednesday night I was just crabby and exhausted. I cannot remember a recent MSU loss impacting my mood as much as this one did.
Comming into the game at Illinois, I did not have a great feeling about it. I still think that Illinois might be the most talented team in the conference, and I expected that they would be out for blood. Furthermore, as I wrote yesterday, the game was the least critcal game left on the schedule. MSU could have dropped it and suffered only minor consensequences. A win, however, would be a major boost.
I wound up having plans with the family Saturday night, so I had the game on "tape delay." I accidentaly saw the score early that MSU was down 17-6 early before I went into full media blackout mode. I started to watch the game around 10 p.m... but what a bounce back! We are soooo back, baby!
The main strength of this team is that it has 8 or 9 guys that can get hot and dominate a game. Over the three losses, it seemed like 7 or 8 of those guys were all simultaneously a quart low. I personally think the flu that sidelined Fears and Booker was worse than we thought. For example, Carr was a no-show for three games and all of a sudden the old Carr was back. I thought that the team brought fight and energy that we have not seen in a few weeks, and when they play like that, they can beat almost anybody. I think that the they flat out wore the Illini out as the game went on. There is a reason Illinois missed their final 19 shots from the field (12 of which were threes).
So where does this leave the Big Ten race? The updated odds table is shown below. In additiona, my data and stats tracker is fully updated.
The Spartans' odds to win or share the Big Ten title doubled overnight. It was 1-in-6 coming into the game and now it is 1-in-3. The Spartans are basically in a dead heat with Wisconsin now with the Wolverines out in the lead with a 54.3% shot to hang a banner. Michigan State's expected win total is up to 14.25, which is less than a game behind Wisconsin (14.59) and Michigan (14.96).
But let's be serious here. I still think that the Wolverines are fool's gold. They are still 4-9 against the spread in Big Ten play and their Kenpom efficiency in Bog Ten only games is only ranked No. 7. The top three teams in both of those metrics are Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. One of these things is not like the other. They are bound to regress to the mean sooner rather than later.
That said, the weasels keep winning games and they have another big one today in Columbus. Here is the result of my latest "what if" analysis depending on the results of that game
A win by the Buckeyes would make it a three-team race between Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. A Wolverine win would push Michigan's odds up to 70%, which just seems crazy. I mean, the only non-toss up left on their schedule is a home game with Rutgers, and even the Scarlet Knights are good enough to beat them. We will see what happens, but an Ohio State win would be a very, very good thing today.
In other news, the Spartans are looking pretty good once again for a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. I have the odds at 68%. Those odds are not going to be impacted by today's game.
So that's where we are as of Sunday morning. There is still work to be done, but the Spartans once again look like a team that can win the Big Ten. For now, Go Green and Go Bucks
Going into the game, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that MSU was going to roll Indiana. It felt like destiney. But we all know what happened...
Tha game tipped off at 9:00 pm and the sad post-game press conference and locker room scene took us to midnight. Be the time I got home and calmed down a bit, it was well after 1 a.m. I had a busy week at the day job this week and by Wednesday night I was just crabby and exhausted. I cannot remember a recent MSU loss impacting my mood as much as this one did.
Comming into the game at Illinois, I did not have a great feeling about it. I still think that Illinois might be the most talented team in the conference, and I expected that they would be out for blood. Furthermore, as I wrote yesterday, the game was the least critcal game left on the schedule. MSU could have dropped it and suffered only minor consensequences. A win, however, would be a major boost.
I wound up having plans with the family Saturday night, so I had the game on "tape delay." I accidentaly saw the score early that MSU was down 17-6 early before I went into full media blackout mode. I started to watch the game around 10 p.m... but what a bounce back! We are soooo back, baby!
The main strength of this team is that it has 8 or 9 guys that can get hot and dominate a game. Over the three losses, it seemed like 7 or 8 of those guys were all simultaneously a quart low. I personally think the flu that sidelined Fears and Booker was worse than we thought. For example, Carr was a no-show for three games and all of a sudden the old Carr was back. I thought that the team brought fight and energy that we have not seen in a few weeks, and when they play like that, they can beat almost anybody. I think that the they flat out wore the Illini out as the game went on. There is a reason Illinois missed their final 19 shots from the field (12 of which were threes).
So where does this leave the Big Ten race? The updated odds table is shown below. In additiona, my data and stats tracker is fully updated.
The Spartans' odds to win or share the Big Ten title doubled overnight. It was 1-in-6 coming into the game and now it is 1-in-3. The Spartans are basically in a dead heat with Wisconsin now with the Wolverines out in the lead with a 54.3% shot to hang a banner. Michigan State's expected win total is up to 14.25, which is less than a game behind Wisconsin (14.59) and Michigan (14.96).
But let's be serious here. I still think that the Wolverines are fool's gold. They are still 4-9 against the spread in Big Ten play and their Kenpom efficiency in Bog Ten only games is only ranked No. 7. The top three teams in both of those metrics are Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. One of these things is not like the other. They are bound to regress to the mean sooner rather than later.
That said, the weasels keep winning games and they have another big one today in Columbus. Here is the result of my latest "what if" analysis depending on the results of that game
A win by the Buckeyes would make it a three-team race between Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. A Wolverine win would push Michigan's odds up to 70%, which just seems crazy. I mean, the only non-toss up left on their schedule is a home game with Rutgers, and even the Scarlet Knights are good enough to beat them. We will see what happens, but an Ohio State win would be a very, very good thing today.
In other news, the Spartans are looking pretty good once again for a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. I have the odds at 68%. Those odds are not going to be impacted by today's game.
So that's where we are as of Sunday morning. There is still work to be done, but the Spartans once again look like a team that can win the Big Ten. For now, Go Green and Go Bucks
