There is a lot going on between now and tip off tomorrow evening, so tonight I will just provide a quick update on the state of Michigan State basketball, by the numbers. Please check out the odds and data tracker for the most up-to-date data on MSU.
In the overall Big Ten race, Michigan State has had a good two weeks. Yes, the loss at Minnesota was frustrating, but the Spartans have still won four of the last five games. In the process they picked up a road win at Penn State and a valuable quad 1 win over Illinois. By contrast, Northwestern and Nebraska have both lost three of their last five games. Wisconsin has lost four of their last five.
As a result, the Spartans expected win total is above 12 (at 12.06) for the first time since the loss at Northwestern in early January knocked them back. The Spartans are over a half game ahead of Northwestern (11.30) and over a full game ahead of Nebraska (10.77). The Wisconsin Badgers (12.51) are now within striking distance. The Spartans would need to finish a full game ahead of the Badgers to jump them on the Big Ten Tournament seed line, but that is certainly now a possibility.
Specifically, MSU has a 25% chance of earning a top three seed in the Big Ten Tournament and a 54% chance of getting a top four seed and the coveted double bye that comes with it. Overall, the No. 4 seed is still the most likely BTT landing spot and the odds are almost 90% that the Spartans end up somewhere between the No. 3 and No. 6 seed.
With Michigan State's wins this week over Penn State on the road and with the "quad 1" win over Illinois, the Spartans are clearly off the NCAA Tournament Bubble. Bracket Matrix has MSU appearing in 101 of 103 online brackets with an average placement of the top No. 8 seed. Barttorvik give MSU a 98% chance to make the field and has the Spartans as a No. 6 seed. My bracketology algorithm (more about that soon) has MSU as a No. 7 seed. With the Spartans predicted to be at least a five-point favorite in five of the final six games, there is a great opportunity to stay above the dreaded No. 8 / No. 9 seed line where a No. 1 seed would almost certainly be waiting in the second round.
Michigan State is currently ranked No. 15 overall in Kenpom and is also in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. All of these metrics suggest that the Spartans remain a fringe National Title contender, as they have been for most of the season. There are only 13 teams in this category and only three teams that currently qualify as likely contenders: Houston, Auburn, and Tennessee. None of those teams particularly scare me. The team past Tom Izzo teams with the most similar statistical profile are the 2014 Elite Eight team and the 2015 Final Four team. Despite the handwringing from a certain sector of the fan base, all signs point to a strong finish to the season.
That all said, the one recent statistical trend that does concern me is defensive field goal percentage. Over the last few games, the rebounding has improved. That is encouraging, but there also has been a disturbing trend on the defensive end. Seven of MSU's last eight opponents (sans Maryland) have had at least a 50% effective field goal percentage overall and at least 35% from three. Moreover, eight opponents in a row have shot 40% of their field goal attempts from deep. All three of these numbers are high and if MSU cannot reverse the trend, it could be trouble. The fact that teams are shooting so well from deep could be partially bad luck, but MSU is allowing their opponents to shoot 43.5% of their shot attempts from three which is No. 341 nationally (of 361 teams). This concerns me.
But first things first. MSU needs to beat the Wolverines on Saturday and pick up another road win. The last two games at Crisler have come under strange circumstances (a COVID reschedule and on the heels of last year's campus shootings). This is the year MSU needs to dominate the Wolverines from tip to final buzzer in their own building. They need to hang 100 on them as the crowd cheers "Go Green; Go White." If MSU does get that road win, the Spartans will move to +2 (road wins minus home losses) and in a tie in that category for second place in the Big Ten with Illinois and Wisconsin.
Both those teams have tougher remaining schedules than does Michigan State. There is even a path for a second-place tie at 13-7 if things break just the right way. Wisconsin (-1.5) has a tough road game at Iowa on Saturday while Illinois (-2.5) has a test at Maryland. By Sunday, the Big Ten race could look a little bit different.
In the overall Big Ten race, Michigan State has had a good two weeks. Yes, the loss at Minnesota was frustrating, but the Spartans have still won four of the last five games. In the process they picked up a road win at Penn State and a valuable quad 1 win over Illinois. By contrast, Northwestern and Nebraska have both lost three of their last five games. Wisconsin has lost four of their last five.
As a result, the Spartans expected win total is above 12 (at 12.06) for the first time since the loss at Northwestern in early January knocked them back. The Spartans are over a half game ahead of Northwestern (11.30) and over a full game ahead of Nebraska (10.77). The Wisconsin Badgers (12.51) are now within striking distance. The Spartans would need to finish a full game ahead of the Badgers to jump them on the Big Ten Tournament seed line, but that is certainly now a possibility.
Specifically, MSU has a 25% chance of earning a top three seed in the Big Ten Tournament and a 54% chance of getting a top four seed and the coveted double bye that comes with it. Overall, the No. 4 seed is still the most likely BTT landing spot and the odds are almost 90% that the Spartans end up somewhere between the No. 3 and No. 6 seed.
With Michigan State's wins this week over Penn State on the road and with the "quad 1" win over Illinois, the Spartans are clearly off the NCAA Tournament Bubble. Bracket Matrix has MSU appearing in 101 of 103 online brackets with an average placement of the top No. 8 seed. Barttorvik give MSU a 98% chance to make the field and has the Spartans as a No. 6 seed. My bracketology algorithm (more about that soon) has MSU as a No. 7 seed. With the Spartans predicted to be at least a five-point favorite in five of the final six games, there is a great opportunity to stay above the dreaded No. 8 / No. 9 seed line where a No. 1 seed would almost certainly be waiting in the second round.
Michigan State is currently ranked No. 15 overall in Kenpom and is also in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. All of these metrics suggest that the Spartans remain a fringe National Title contender, as they have been for most of the season. There are only 13 teams in this category and only three teams that currently qualify as likely contenders: Houston, Auburn, and Tennessee. None of those teams particularly scare me. The team past Tom Izzo teams with the most similar statistical profile are the 2014 Elite Eight team and the 2015 Final Four team. Despite the handwringing from a certain sector of the fan base, all signs point to a strong finish to the season.
That all said, the one recent statistical trend that does concern me is defensive field goal percentage. Over the last few games, the rebounding has improved. That is encouraging, but there also has been a disturbing trend on the defensive end. Seven of MSU's last eight opponents (sans Maryland) have had at least a 50% effective field goal percentage overall and at least 35% from three. Moreover, eight opponents in a row have shot 40% of their field goal attempts from deep. All three of these numbers are high and if MSU cannot reverse the trend, it could be trouble. The fact that teams are shooting so well from deep could be partially bad luck, but MSU is allowing their opponents to shoot 43.5% of their shot attempts from three which is No. 341 nationally (of 361 teams). This concerns me.
But first things first. MSU needs to beat the Wolverines on Saturday and pick up another road win. The last two games at Crisler have come under strange circumstances (a COVID reschedule and on the heels of last year's campus shootings). This is the year MSU needs to dominate the Wolverines from tip to final buzzer in their own building. They need to hang 100 on them as the crowd cheers "Go Green; Go White." If MSU does get that road win, the Spartans will move to +2 (road wins minus home losses) and in a tie in that category for second place in the Big Ten with Illinois and Wisconsin.
Both those teams have tougher remaining schedules than does Michigan State. There is even a path for a second-place tie at 13-7 if things break just the right way. Wisconsin (-1.5) has a tough road game at Iowa on Saturday while Illinois (-2.5) has a test at Maryland. By Sunday, the Big Ten race could look a little bit different.
