This is another one of those annual pieces of mine that I always look forward to writing. The timing this year was odd, however.
In the past, I could wait until Christmas to do an analysis of the Big Ten as conference play did not start until after the new year. But with the expanded league, 20 game schedule, and early December conference games (right on the heels of football season) it is hard to find a good time to run this analysis.
I ran the numbers in early December, and it was basically a mess. The math told me that MSU was going to finish in 10th or 11th place and that half the conference was going to finish at 11-9 or 10-10. All the teams looked the same. So, I decided to hold off until more games very played such that more data would accumulate. That certainly has helped.
The second problem is that at least one Big Ten team is playing almost every night of every week. So, the data is only good for about 24 hours and then stuff changes. This week things are a bit quieter, so I figured it would be a nice time to plant a data flag and report the results.
Things are definitely looking up for the Spartans, as we will see in this analysis. I cannot say that MSU is the favorite, but there appears to be one of the six to nine teams with a real shot to hang a banner this year. Most of that data I will talk about tomorrow in part two. As for today, I provide a warmup/appetizer focused on the Big Ten as a whole and on the role of the expansion of the conference on strength of schedule. I can say that the results of this part of the analysis really surprised me.
Check it out, and enjoy!
michiganstate.rivals.com
In the past, I could wait until Christmas to do an analysis of the Big Ten as conference play did not start until after the new year. But with the expanded league, 20 game schedule, and early December conference games (right on the heels of football season) it is hard to find a good time to run this analysis.
I ran the numbers in early December, and it was basically a mess. The math told me that MSU was going to finish in 10th or 11th place and that half the conference was going to finish at 11-9 or 10-10. All the teams looked the same. So, I decided to hold off until more games very played such that more data would accumulate. That certainly has helped.
The second problem is that at least one Big Ten team is playing almost every night of every week. So, the data is only good for about 24 hours and then stuff changes. This week things are a bit quieter, so I figured it would be a nice time to plant a data flag and report the results.
Things are definitely looking up for the Spartans, as we will see in this analysis. I cannot say that MSU is the favorite, but there appears to be one of the six to nine teams with a real shot to hang a banner this year. Most of that data I will talk about tomorrow in part two. As for today, I provide a warmup/appetizer focused on the Big Ten as a whole and on the role of the expansion of the conference on strength of schedule. I can say that the results of this part of the analysis really surprised me.
Check it out, and enjoy!
Dr. Green and White Basketball Preview, Part One: Big Ten Overview
Check out this mathematical deep dive of Big Ten basketball including an analysis of strength of schedule.
