Now that my Big Ten basketball data and stats tracker in firmly in place, I plan to pop in a couple times a week with an update and some focused analysis. Today, I put Big Ten strength of schedule back under the microscope.
The standing show Michigan and MSU is a tie for first place, but Michigan has the current edge in odds. In the article below, I dig into why that is currently the case.
michiganstate.rivals.com
But here is a little more food for thought (i.e. bonus analysis)
As my article points out, from a total efficiency standpoint, Michigan has a slight edge of MSU. When every possession of the season is taken into account, the Wolverines have been slightly more efficient. But a closer look at the schedule for each team paints a slightly different image.
MSU is 14-2 overall while Michigan is 13-3. One could argue that Michigan's win at Wisconsin is the best win on either team's resume. That is likely true, although MSU's win over UNC is not far off.
Michigan's second best win is at UCLA. When the win happened, it looked impressive, but now MSU's win over Ohio State is looking comparable, even though Michigan's margin of victory over UCLA (19) was bigger than MSU's win at OSU (7).
Michigan's third best win was a 2-point home win against Iowa. MSU's third best win was a 36-point home win over Nebraska, which as I point out, are similarly ranked opponents. This win shifts the balance in MSU's favor.
Going down the list of opponents, Michigan has close loses to Arkansas and Oklahoma. Both of MSU's losses are to stronger teams (Kansas and Memphis).
Both teams have faced five total teams ranked between No. 50 and No. 102 in Kenpom.
Michigan is 4-1 in those games, including a blowout neutral court win over No. 53 Xavier, an 11-point road win over No. 68 USC, a 16-point home win over No. 93 Washington, and a bad loss to No. 80 Wake Forest
Michigan State is 5-0 in those games, including a blowout neutral court win over No. 87 Colorado, a 10-point road win over No. 55 Northwestern, a 34-point win over No. 93 Washington, and no losses.
Based on the comparisons above, the Spartans appear to have an advantage, and likely a significant advantage.
But the bottom of the schedule is where the Wolverines get the edge. Both teams played six teams current ranked outside of the top 102. The teams that MIchigan played are generally ranked higher and the Wolverines won those games by an average of over 30 points which MSU "only" won by an average of 21.5 points.
So, that's the reason that Michigan is ranked higher in Kenpom: They consistently blew out bad teams worse than MSU did. Cool. Good job. Golf claps all around. But when we look at how both teams fared against the top 100, Michigan State has the edge, and it might be a significant one.
Kenpom data from just Big Ten play tend to support this hypothesis. In just the five Big Ten games each team has played, MSU is ranked No. 2 is offensive efficiency (behind Purdue) and No. 1 in defense. By contrast, Michigan is only ranked No. 4 in offense and No. 7 in defense. Based on this data, Michigan State looks like the Big Ten favorite with Purdue as the most serious challenger. Time will tell us if this analysis is correct.
The standing show Michigan and MSU is a tie for first place, but Michigan has the current edge in odds. In the article below, I dig into why that is currently the case.
Dr. Green and White Basketball Odds Update: Michigan and MSU lead the way
The math currently give the Wolverines a slight edge in the Big Ten race. Let's dig in to find out why.
But here is a little more food for thought (i.e. bonus analysis)
As my article points out, from a total efficiency standpoint, Michigan has a slight edge of MSU. When every possession of the season is taken into account, the Wolverines have been slightly more efficient. But a closer look at the schedule for each team paints a slightly different image.
MSU is 14-2 overall while Michigan is 13-3. One could argue that Michigan's win at Wisconsin is the best win on either team's resume. That is likely true, although MSU's win over UNC is not far off.
Michigan's second best win is at UCLA. When the win happened, it looked impressive, but now MSU's win over Ohio State is looking comparable, even though Michigan's margin of victory over UCLA (19) was bigger than MSU's win at OSU (7).
Michigan's third best win was a 2-point home win against Iowa. MSU's third best win was a 36-point home win over Nebraska, which as I point out, are similarly ranked opponents. This win shifts the balance in MSU's favor.
Going down the list of opponents, Michigan has close loses to Arkansas and Oklahoma. Both of MSU's losses are to stronger teams (Kansas and Memphis).
Both teams have faced five total teams ranked between No. 50 and No. 102 in Kenpom.
Michigan is 4-1 in those games, including a blowout neutral court win over No. 53 Xavier, an 11-point road win over No. 68 USC, a 16-point home win over No. 93 Washington, and a bad loss to No. 80 Wake Forest
Michigan State is 5-0 in those games, including a blowout neutral court win over No. 87 Colorado, a 10-point road win over No. 55 Northwestern, a 34-point win over No. 93 Washington, and no losses.
Based on the comparisons above, the Spartans appear to have an advantage, and likely a significant advantage.
But the bottom of the schedule is where the Wolverines get the edge. Both teams played six teams current ranked outside of the top 102. The teams that MIchigan played are generally ranked higher and the Wolverines won those games by an average of over 30 points which MSU "only" won by an average of 21.5 points.
So, that's the reason that Michigan is ranked higher in Kenpom: They consistently blew out bad teams worse than MSU did. Cool. Good job. Golf claps all around. But when we look at how both teams fared against the top 100, Michigan State has the edge, and it might be a significant one.
Kenpom data from just Big Ten play tend to support this hypothesis. In just the five Big Ten games each team has played, MSU is ranked No. 2 is offensive efficiency (behind Purdue) and No. 1 in defense. By contrast, Michigan is only ranked No. 4 in offense and No. 7 in defense. Based on this data, Michigan State looks like the Big Ten favorite with Purdue as the most serious challenger. Time will tell us if this analysis is correct.
