Michigan State’s season is over, but I will continue to have a bit of fun looking at some of (OK, all of) the various New Year’s Six Bowl scenario. I must admit that while I am excited about the 12-team playoff, I will miss the NY6.
The really, really interesting subplot is what the committee is going to do if Alabama beats Georgia, especially since Texas beat Alabama on the road in the regular season. If Georgia wins, everything is very straightforward.
I think that the committee may have messed up a bit by putting Georgia at No. 1 and Bama at No. 8 in last week’s poll. I think that they are backed into a corner and honestly cannot drop Georgia far enough to elevate Alabama into the playoffs with a win. I think they also could have helped themselves by putting Texas a bit higher in the poll.
This would give them much more flexibility depending on the results this weekend. The week-by-week rankings are completely meaningless, and the committee should be smart to know that. I don’t think that they are.
My numbers honestly support the idea that the winner of the SEC Championship game should be the only SEC team with a shot at the playoffs. BUT, there is a scenario where Texas, Florida State, Michigan, and Alabama all win (17% chance) and I would personally leave BOTH SEC teams out. The data justifies that… but there is no way that would happen when the SEC has won 13 of the past 17 Titles. It’s just a non-starter.
One other curve ball that could happen is with the Orange Bowl. No. 14 Louisville is locked into the Orange Bowl no matter what happens, and it would be WAY better from a match-up point of view if the committee could put Missouri there instead of Ohio State. This would potentially free up something like an Alabama-Ohio State match-up in the Peach or Cotton Bowl, which is just way better for everyone.
But there are weird contracts and rules about who plays in the Orange Bowl. In 2014, the committee switched Michigan State and Mississippi State in the final poll to create better match-ups and they should try to do something similar this year.
As crazy as it sounds, it would make a lot of sense to bump Missouri ahead of Ohio State and Alabama (if they lose) in the final poll. Then according to contract, Missouri would be the highest ranked non-playoff and non-champion from the SEC and Big Ten. They should frankly just say, yeah, this creates a better portfolio of NY6 games.
That isn’t likely, but it is 100% what they should do.
Anyway, I hope you enjoy the breakdown.
michiganstate.rivals.com
The really, really interesting subplot is what the committee is going to do if Alabama beats Georgia, especially since Texas beat Alabama on the road in the regular season. If Georgia wins, everything is very straightforward.
I think that the committee may have messed up a bit by putting Georgia at No. 1 and Bama at No. 8 in last week’s poll. I think that they are backed into a corner and honestly cannot drop Georgia far enough to elevate Alabama into the playoffs with a win. I think they also could have helped themselves by putting Texas a bit higher in the poll.
This would give them much more flexibility depending on the results this weekend. The week-by-week rankings are completely meaningless, and the committee should be smart to know that. I don’t think that they are.
My numbers honestly support the idea that the winner of the SEC Championship game should be the only SEC team with a shot at the playoffs. BUT, there is a scenario where Texas, Florida State, Michigan, and Alabama all win (17% chance) and I would personally leave BOTH SEC teams out. The data justifies that… but there is no way that would happen when the SEC has won 13 of the past 17 Titles. It’s just a non-starter.
One other curve ball that could happen is with the Orange Bowl. No. 14 Louisville is locked into the Orange Bowl no matter what happens, and it would be WAY better from a match-up point of view if the committee could put Missouri there instead of Ohio State. This would potentially free up something like an Alabama-Ohio State match-up in the Peach or Cotton Bowl, which is just way better for everyone.
But there are weird contracts and rules about who plays in the Orange Bowl. In 2014, the committee switched Michigan State and Mississippi State in the final poll to create better match-ups and they should try to do something similar this year.
As crazy as it sounds, it would make a lot of sense to bump Missouri ahead of Ohio State and Alabama (if they lose) in the final poll. Then according to contract, Missouri would be the highest ranked non-playoff and non-champion from the SEC and Big Ten. They should frankly just say, yeah, this creates a better portfolio of NY6 games.
That isn’t likely, but it is 100% what they should do.
Anyway, I hope you enjoy the breakdown.
Dr. Green and White Bad Betting Advice: Championship Week Edition
In addition to this week's picks, we ran the odds of all 32 scenarios for the New Year's Six and playoff pairings.
