I am not going to do my full, formal update, but I did run the numbers after the events of the weekend and here is what they show, starting with the expanded Big Ten standings
and the win distribution matrix
MSU now has an expected win total at 12.85, which translates to:
-60% odds of finishing with a record of 13-6 or better
-36% odds of finishing with a record of 14-5 or better
-17% odds of finishing with a record of 15-4 or better
-6% odds of finishing with a record of 16-3 or better
Here are the updated odds to win or share the Big Ten Title
MSU currently checks in with the 3rd best odds (25%) just behind Purdue (31%) and Illinois (26%). It also looks like a record of 15-5 or 15-4 is most likely needed to win a title. If I squint at the data above, I think that it also tells me that if:
-MSU finishes at 16-3 or better, the odds to win or share the title approach 100%
-MSU finishes at 15-4, the odds to win or share the title are 84%
-MSU finishes at 14-5, the odds to win or share the title are 41%
-MSU finishes at 13-4, the odds to win or share the title are 6%
The BTT seeding now looks like this:
Finally, I also ran a few shorter, "what if" simulations. Here is what will roughly happen to the odds with an MSU win or an MSU lose at Illinois on Tuesday night:
Note that this does not take into account the changes in efficiency (and thus future point spreads) that would also come along with a win or loss. If MSU wins, the title odds would very likely top 40% in my next update. A loss could push the odds under 17% if MSU fails to cover the +5 or so spread. I will provide my normal, more in-depth update sometime later in the week, after the Illinois game and before the Michigan game next Saturday, assuming that the Wolverines are feeling OK.
and the win distribution matrix
MSU now has an expected win total at 12.85, which translates to:
-60% odds of finishing with a record of 13-6 or better
-36% odds of finishing with a record of 14-5 or better
-17% odds of finishing with a record of 15-4 or better
-6% odds of finishing with a record of 16-3 or better
Here are the updated odds to win or share the Big Ten Title
MSU currently checks in with the 3rd best odds (25%) just behind Purdue (31%) and Illinois (26%). It also looks like a record of 15-5 or 15-4 is most likely needed to win a title. If I squint at the data above, I think that it also tells me that if:
-MSU finishes at 16-3 or better, the odds to win or share the title approach 100%
-MSU finishes at 15-4, the odds to win or share the title are 84%
-MSU finishes at 14-5, the odds to win or share the title are 41%
-MSU finishes at 13-4, the odds to win or share the title are 6%
The BTT seeding now looks like this:
Finally, I also ran a few shorter, "what if" simulations. Here is what will roughly happen to the odds with an MSU win or an MSU lose at Illinois on Tuesday night:
Note that this does not take into account the changes in efficiency (and thus future point spreads) that would also come along with a win or loss. If MSU wins, the title odds would very likely top 40% in my next update. A loss could push the odds under 17% if MSU fails to cover the +5 or so spread. I will provide my normal, more in-depth update sometime later in the week, after the Illinois game and before the Michigan game next Saturday, assuming that the Wolverines are feeling OK.
