OK folks, I have been mulling over my thoughts on where MSU is now and where they might be going. I make no secret that I generally fall on the optimistic side of the spectrum. I only half-jokingly say that I am the self-appointed Chief Optimism Officer of this here website. Some might say that I am a sunshine blower. That's fine. Either way, I said here last week that I liked MSU's chances against Marquette a lot, and it turns out that I was correct. When the optimists are correct, we are just realists, now aren't we?
Full disclosure: if you are one of those woe-is-me Spartan fans who expect the bottom to drop out at any moment, this is likely a post to just skip. For the rest of you...
I have said this before as well, but I have been high on this team for a while. Once I saw Sissoko play well on the aircraft carrier and against Kentucky, I was even more convinced. This MSU team has all the pieces that they needed for a deep run in March
As it stands now, Michigan State is two wins away from Coach Izzo's 9th Final Four. I would be mildly surprised and quite disappointed if they don't get there. If MSU can harness the same focus as last weekend, they will win twice this weekend unless a player or two on the other sideline goes absolutely nuclear.
As for Kansas State, they have an excellent point guard in Markquis Nowell. He was excellent against Kentucky. But MSU has already shut down two other backcourts in the first weekend that came in with more accolades. Kansas State is not as good as Marquette and I am not convinced that they are better than USC. They have a first year coach and they play a rather ragged style.
K-State reminds me a little of the LSU team that faced No. 2 Michigan State in the 2019 Sweet 16. MSU beat than team by 17. Sure, this year MSU is the No. 7 seed... but I would not at all be surprised to see a similar result. Michigan State is favored as the lower seed and I expect a "W."
If MSU wins that game, the Spartans will face either No. 9 Florida Atlantic or No. 4 Tennessee. I would not at all be shocked to see FAU beat Tennessee, and I would expect MSU to roll FAU. Tom Izzo in a one-prep against a mid-major who literally has never been there before? Game, set, match.
If MSU faces Tennessee, that would be interesting. On paper, MSU projects as about a 4.5-point underdog to the Volunteers. My mathematical analysis of the East Region a week ago told me to take Tennessee to the Final Four. But, as has been stated many times, Tennessee lost their point guard for the year. MSU scrimmaged Tennessee to a near draw in the preseason when the Vols were at full strength and MSU was without Jaden Akins. This seems like a even match, at worst.
And then there is the Rick Barns angle. I have been a vocal critic of Barnes and his complete lack of success in the March. That said, Barnes is mostly bad against higher seeds. MSU would be the lower seed in this match-up. Also, Rick Barnes has exactly one Final Four on his resume, when he took Texas to the Final Four in 2003. That year, Barnes beat a young coach named Tom Izzo in that Regional Final. But Texas was a No. 1 seed playing in their home state (San Antonio). He will not have that type of advantage this time.
That would be some other interesting subplots if MSU were to face Tennessee in MSG. The Spartans do not have a good track record in that building. I personally saw Syracuse boat-race the Spartans in a non-conference game in that building in 2011. In 2014, Keith Appling, Adrian Payne became the first four-year Tom Izzo players to not make a Final Four when they blew a nine-point second half lead against UConn. Can Coach Izzo exact any revenge on that building?
But, at the same time, Tennessee could potentially exact some revenge of their own. Don't forget that in 2010, Michigan State (who also lost point guard Kalin Lucas to a season ending injury in the round of 32) beat Bruce Pearl's Tennessee squad in the regional final by a single point. I would guess that Volunteer fans have not forgotten. There would be a bit of karmic retribution if Tennessee were to beat MSU without their star point guard. That point is duly noted.
That game would be a war, but I think that it is a war the Spartans would win more times than not, as long as Michigan State continues to bring their B+ game or better.
So let's now entertain the hypothetical that the Spartans DO win the next two games and advance to the Final Four. What happens then? In year's past, Coach Izzo has run into a buzz saw in the National Semifinal round. Just look at a list of coaches that Izzo has faced: Coach K (in both 1999 and 2015), Lute Olson (2001, when MSU had no real point guard), Roy Williams (2005 and again in the title game in 2009), Brad Stevens (2010), and Chris Beard (2019).
Note that in 2019, MSU was down a key reserve guard (Kyle Ahrens) and Aaron Henry got into early foul trouble in that game. MSU was thin on the perimeter and basically ran out of gas by the end of the game. Matt McQuaid could barely walk. Give me a health Kyle Ahrens and maybe that weekend plays out a bit differently.
Oh, and by the way, Izzo has a Final Four win over Jim Calhoun in 2009. Izzo is actually the ONLY coach to beat Calhoun in the Final Four.
None of those coaches are going to be on the sidelines in Houston in two weeks, and I frankly do not see anyone is their league left in the tournament. Bill Self, Jay Wright, and John Calipari are all at home. I like Izzo's odds against the remaining field.
How about the South Region? Alabama and Nate Oats are the clear favorite. I would expect Michigan State to beat San Diego State, Creighton, or Princeton were they to play in the national semifinal. (As a historical note, recall that MSU destroyed Penn from the Ivy League in the 1979 Final Four before beating Larry Bird and Indiana State. Just keep that one in the back of your mind...) Could MSU beat Alabama? Absolutely. MSU already played that team back in November while shorthanded. I do not think that MSU was completely outclassed. Furthermore, Oats runs a somewhat unconventional system (based on analytical-driven shot selection) that has not shown that it is robust enough to win four games in a row, let alone six, in March. Let's see if he can get their first.
How about the Midwest Region? Houston is still the overall favorite, and Kelvin Sampson is a great coach. But, they have injury issues as well and are still a mid-major. I just don't believe in them and I do not expect them to make it far enough to face MSU. Miami? I am still shocked that they beat Drake. Xavier? They feel like Marquette-lite. Texas? Yes, I was pretty impressed with the Longhorns so far, but once again they have a first-year coach and honestly Penn State should have beaten them if the Lions would have shot anywhere close to their average from deep. Bring any of them on.
How about the West Region? Arkansas? Please. UConn? I did take them to win the National Title in my bracket, but I don't feel great about picking Danny Hurley. Plus, Marquette is better than them, right? Gonzaga? I really like Mark Few, but they have the same mid-major issues as Houston, except that they don't play defense. Also, MSU should have beaten them back in November down a man. I don't see that happening again. UCLA? They looked pretty good as well, but they also have a key injury. I would like MSU's odds against the Bruins.
Overall, Alabama is the only team that really concerns me. Tennessee is actually the second scariest team remaining. On paper, the Volunteers may be the best team remaining when in comes to the combination of talent and coaching, exccept that I do not fully trust the coaching and the talent is beaten up. The best combination of talent and coaching might just be the team from East Lansing.
Now, I just served a heaping helping of green Kool Aide. So here comes the caveat. MSU can obviously lose to all 15 of remaining teams in the bracket as well. If the cold shooting from the outside continues, it will come back to bite them. If the focus and defense start to flicker, MSU will be going home real quick. But somehow and for some reason, I don't think that will happen.
Something just tells me that this might be our year.
Full disclosure: if you are one of those woe-is-me Spartan fans who expect the bottom to drop out at any moment, this is likely a post to just skip. For the rest of you...
I have said this before as well, but I have been high on this team for a while. Once I saw Sissoko play well on the aircraft carrier and against Kentucky, I was even more convinced. This MSU team has all the pieces that they needed for a deep run in March
- Ball handling and strong guard play
- Two potentially elite stretch-fours
- Great defense
- Leadership
- Great outside shooting
- The ability to create and get to the rim
- Relative health
- "Good enough" post play and rebounding
- A HOF coach on the sidelines.
As it stands now, Michigan State is two wins away from Coach Izzo's 9th Final Four. I would be mildly surprised and quite disappointed if they don't get there. If MSU can harness the same focus as last weekend, they will win twice this weekend unless a player or two on the other sideline goes absolutely nuclear.
As for Kansas State, they have an excellent point guard in Markquis Nowell. He was excellent against Kentucky. But MSU has already shut down two other backcourts in the first weekend that came in with more accolades. Kansas State is not as good as Marquette and I am not convinced that they are better than USC. They have a first year coach and they play a rather ragged style.
K-State reminds me a little of the LSU team that faced No. 2 Michigan State in the 2019 Sweet 16. MSU beat than team by 17. Sure, this year MSU is the No. 7 seed... but I would not at all be surprised to see a similar result. Michigan State is favored as the lower seed and I expect a "W."
If MSU wins that game, the Spartans will face either No. 9 Florida Atlantic or No. 4 Tennessee. I would not at all be shocked to see FAU beat Tennessee, and I would expect MSU to roll FAU. Tom Izzo in a one-prep against a mid-major who literally has never been there before? Game, set, match.
If MSU faces Tennessee, that would be interesting. On paper, MSU projects as about a 4.5-point underdog to the Volunteers. My mathematical analysis of the East Region a week ago told me to take Tennessee to the Final Four. But, as has been stated many times, Tennessee lost their point guard for the year. MSU scrimmaged Tennessee to a near draw in the preseason when the Vols were at full strength and MSU was without Jaden Akins. This seems like a even match, at worst.
And then there is the Rick Barns angle. I have been a vocal critic of Barnes and his complete lack of success in the March. That said, Barnes is mostly bad against higher seeds. MSU would be the lower seed in this match-up. Also, Rick Barnes has exactly one Final Four on his resume, when he took Texas to the Final Four in 2003. That year, Barnes beat a young coach named Tom Izzo in that Regional Final. But Texas was a No. 1 seed playing in their home state (San Antonio). He will not have that type of advantage this time.
That would be some other interesting subplots if MSU were to face Tennessee in MSG. The Spartans do not have a good track record in that building. I personally saw Syracuse boat-race the Spartans in a non-conference game in that building in 2011. In 2014, Keith Appling, Adrian Payne became the first four-year Tom Izzo players to not make a Final Four when they blew a nine-point second half lead against UConn. Can Coach Izzo exact any revenge on that building?
But, at the same time, Tennessee could potentially exact some revenge of their own. Don't forget that in 2010, Michigan State (who also lost point guard Kalin Lucas to a season ending injury in the round of 32) beat Bruce Pearl's Tennessee squad in the regional final by a single point. I would guess that Volunteer fans have not forgotten. There would be a bit of karmic retribution if Tennessee were to beat MSU without their star point guard. That point is duly noted.
That game would be a war, but I think that it is a war the Spartans would win more times than not, as long as Michigan State continues to bring their B+ game or better.
So let's now entertain the hypothetical that the Spartans DO win the next two games and advance to the Final Four. What happens then? In year's past, Coach Izzo has run into a buzz saw in the National Semifinal round. Just look at a list of coaches that Izzo has faced: Coach K (in both 1999 and 2015), Lute Olson (2001, when MSU had no real point guard), Roy Williams (2005 and again in the title game in 2009), Brad Stevens (2010), and Chris Beard (2019).
Note that in 2019, MSU was down a key reserve guard (Kyle Ahrens) and Aaron Henry got into early foul trouble in that game. MSU was thin on the perimeter and basically ran out of gas by the end of the game. Matt McQuaid could barely walk. Give me a health Kyle Ahrens and maybe that weekend plays out a bit differently.
Oh, and by the way, Izzo has a Final Four win over Jim Calhoun in 2009. Izzo is actually the ONLY coach to beat Calhoun in the Final Four.
None of those coaches are going to be on the sidelines in Houston in two weeks, and I frankly do not see anyone is their league left in the tournament. Bill Self, Jay Wright, and John Calipari are all at home. I like Izzo's odds against the remaining field.
How about the South Region? Alabama and Nate Oats are the clear favorite. I would expect Michigan State to beat San Diego State, Creighton, or Princeton were they to play in the national semifinal. (As a historical note, recall that MSU destroyed Penn from the Ivy League in the 1979 Final Four before beating Larry Bird and Indiana State. Just keep that one in the back of your mind...) Could MSU beat Alabama? Absolutely. MSU already played that team back in November while shorthanded. I do not think that MSU was completely outclassed. Furthermore, Oats runs a somewhat unconventional system (based on analytical-driven shot selection) that has not shown that it is robust enough to win four games in a row, let alone six, in March. Let's see if he can get their first.
How about the Midwest Region? Houston is still the overall favorite, and Kelvin Sampson is a great coach. But, they have injury issues as well and are still a mid-major. I just don't believe in them and I do not expect them to make it far enough to face MSU. Miami? I am still shocked that they beat Drake. Xavier? They feel like Marquette-lite. Texas? Yes, I was pretty impressed with the Longhorns so far, but once again they have a first-year coach and honestly Penn State should have beaten them if the Lions would have shot anywhere close to their average from deep. Bring any of them on.
How about the West Region? Arkansas? Please. UConn? I did take them to win the National Title in my bracket, but I don't feel great about picking Danny Hurley. Plus, Marquette is better than them, right? Gonzaga? I really like Mark Few, but they have the same mid-major issues as Houston, except that they don't play defense. Also, MSU should have beaten them back in November down a man. I don't see that happening again. UCLA? They looked pretty good as well, but they also have a key injury. I would like MSU's odds against the Bruins.
Overall, Alabama is the only team that really concerns me. Tennessee is actually the second scariest team remaining. On paper, the Volunteers may be the best team remaining when in comes to the combination of talent and coaching, exccept that I do not fully trust the coaching and the talent is beaten up. The best combination of talent and coaching might just be the team from East Lansing.
Now, I just served a heaping helping of green Kool Aide. So here comes the caveat. MSU can obviously lose to all 15 of remaining teams in the bracket as well. If the cold shooting from the outside continues, it will come back to bite them. If the focus and defense start to flicker, MSU will be going home real quick. But somehow and for some reason, I don't think that will happen.
Something just tells me that this might be our year.
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