With the calendar telling me that it is December and MSU sitting up #1 in both polls with no ranked team on the schedule for 6 weeks, I have the sudden itch to start thinking about bracketology. It is never too early, it is? The selection committee is putting more emphasis than ever on keeping teams close to home and with the current trajectory of MSU’s season, it seems reasonable to assume that we will be in the hunt for a top seed come Selection Sunday. By looking at the game locations, you can already get a feel for how this is going to shake out, even here in December.
It seems safe to assume that MSU is going to stay in position to get a preferred location in the first 2 rounds. Looking at the possible options, there frankly aren’t a lot of good ones. Des Moines, IA and St. Louis look to be the closest, and the biggest competition for those locations will be Iowa State, Purdue, Kentucky, and maybe Xavier and Butler. The rest of the Big 12 will prefer Oklahoma City, Duke and UNC will prefer Raleigh, teams like Maryland and Virginia will most likely prefer up in Brooklyn, and most Big East teams will prefer Providence
As for the Regional locations, things get a bit more interesting. The West Regional is once again in Anaheim, and so the Pac 12 champ is almost certain to get a 1-seed or 2-seed in that Region along with Gonzaga, if they have a good season. The other Regional locations are Louisville, Chicago, and Philadelphia. The good news here is that while MSU would clear prefer to be in the Chicago Regional, Maryland would prefer Philadelphia, as would the winner of the ACC (likely Duke, UNC, or Virginia). With Kentucky playing in what is effectively a Mid-Major conference, they seem to be a heavy favorite to get the 1-seed in Louisville unless something catastrophic happens. So, the seeds most likely in play for MSU are the 1- and 2-seeds in Chicago and the 2-seed in Louisville. The competition for these seeds is most likely:
-The top 1-2 Big 12 teams (Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma)
-Purdue
-The second place ACC team
It seems likely that MSU, Maryland, and Purdue will all get split up, and since MSU and Purdue both prefer the same region, it seems quite important to finish ahead of the Boilermakers in the standings in order to secure the 1-seed in Chicago and avoid playing in Kentucky's region, which still seems like a good team to avoid. MSU’s win over Kansas in November also certainly helps, but the fact that MSU only plays Purdue once and the game is in West Lafayette is a bit concerning. From an NCAA seeding point of view, this could be the most critical game left on the schedule.
Now, if MSU falls out of the Top 10, all of this is moot, but for now this is what it looks like to me.
It seems safe to assume that MSU is going to stay in position to get a preferred location in the first 2 rounds. Looking at the possible options, there frankly aren’t a lot of good ones. Des Moines, IA and St. Louis look to be the closest, and the biggest competition for those locations will be Iowa State, Purdue, Kentucky, and maybe Xavier and Butler. The rest of the Big 12 will prefer Oklahoma City, Duke and UNC will prefer Raleigh, teams like Maryland and Virginia will most likely prefer up in Brooklyn, and most Big East teams will prefer Providence
As for the Regional locations, things get a bit more interesting. The West Regional is once again in Anaheim, and so the Pac 12 champ is almost certain to get a 1-seed or 2-seed in that Region along with Gonzaga, if they have a good season. The other Regional locations are Louisville, Chicago, and Philadelphia. The good news here is that while MSU would clear prefer to be in the Chicago Regional, Maryland would prefer Philadelphia, as would the winner of the ACC (likely Duke, UNC, or Virginia). With Kentucky playing in what is effectively a Mid-Major conference, they seem to be a heavy favorite to get the 1-seed in Louisville unless something catastrophic happens. So, the seeds most likely in play for MSU are the 1- and 2-seeds in Chicago and the 2-seed in Louisville. The competition for these seeds is most likely:
-The top 1-2 Big 12 teams (Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma)
-Purdue
-The second place ACC team
It seems likely that MSU, Maryland, and Purdue will all get split up, and since MSU and Purdue both prefer the same region, it seems quite important to finish ahead of the Boilermakers in the standings in order to secure the 1-seed in Chicago and avoid playing in Kentucky's region, which still seems like a good team to avoid. MSU’s win over Kansas in November also certainly helps, but the fact that MSU only plays Purdue once and the game is in West Lafayette is a bit concerning. From an NCAA seeding point of view, this could be the most critical game left on the schedule.
Now, if MSU falls out of the Top 10, all of this is moot, but for now this is what it looks like to me.
