Here are some of my current musings about bracketology
1) I really, really love bracketology, but in all honesty, I pay little or no attention to it at this time of year. Any bracket that Palm or Lunardi or whoever comes out with is “if the season ended today.” But, it doesn’t end today, so the analysis is fairly meaningless. The actual bracket will get build on one specific day based on all the information available on that day. Considering the fact that 32 single elimination tournaments will happen between now and then, and I just don’t think the current brackets have much meaning
2) I have a feeling that the initial bracket released by the committee is messing with everyone’s head anyway. Now, instead of just performing the analysis based on data and basketball knowledge (“the eye test.”) Everyone is trying to also guess what the committee is going to do. The initial bracket was such a mess that now everyone is confused. My gut feeling is that the committee rushed to get it out the door, used it as a bit of a training exercise, and didn’t think about it in much more detail than that. I think that when the real bracket is released, it will likely have a lot more thought that goes into it (and will resemble a bracket put together by reasonable experts). I really hope this is what happens. But, it is certainly possible that it will just be a random mess with BTT Champ MSU as a 4-seed and Oklahoma as a 2-seed. Since predicting stupid is hard, I would suggest the bracketologists just do an honest analysis and see how the chips fall.
That said, I think we can make some pretty good assumptions, if we project how the season might play out. Here are my gut feelings (with some history and analysis behind them)
3) If MSU wins on Friday, I think we are safely on the 2-line and safely in Detroit for the first weekend. In order to miss out on Detroit, MSU would need to drop to roughly 10 or 11 on the S curve, and I honestly don’t think that will happen. The biggest risk would be if Michigan wins the BTT over Purdue. In that case it is possible (but not likely) both teams wind up ahead of MSU on the S-curve, and that would be bad.
4) Virginia is clearly the “safest” 1-seed, which means the 1-seed in the South is out of play. Even if UVA were to flame out in the ACC tourney, the committee will likely give UVA a 1-seed anyway and give the ACC Champ (if it is UNC or Duke) one of the other 1-seeds.
5) Based on their current trajectory, Kansas is on cruise control and pulling away in the Big 12. Yes, they have some bad losses, but if they win the Big 12 tourney, I see no way that they don’t wind up as the 1-seed in the Midwest Region, especially considering the region is played Omaha. Even if they lose in the Final (for example) they still might wind up there.
6) Villanova has looked a bit vulnerable recently, so it will be interesting to see how they finish. If they win the Big East tourney, this is very simple: they are the 1-seed in the East and Xavier will most likely drop to a 2-seed. If Xavier wins the Big East, Nova might drop to a 2-seed. It is also certainly possible that the loser of the Big East final gets shipped out West to be the 1-seed, but I think an upset in the Big Ten would be necessary for this.
7) Considering all this, I think the highest possible seed that the MSU (or Purdue for that matter) can get is the #4 overall seed, which would result in getting the 1-seed in the West. (This assumes no major upsets in the Big 12 or Big East tournament). I am not sure that is a great scenario, so it might be better if Duke or UNC were to win the ACC tourney and get “rewarded” with the 1-seed out West. But, would the committee really have the stones to give UNC a 1-seed over MSU? Duke? Sure. UNC? Not sure.
8) The 2-seeds then get interesting. With the ACC champ in the South, possibly (or likely) being the #1 overall seed, I could see the SEC Champ (likely Auburn) getting placed there as the 2-seed. This makes sense based on geography and the S curve. The most likely remaining teams to be placed on the 2-line are the ACC, Big East, and Big 10 tourney runners up. On the S curve, I don’t think that there is going to be much of a difference between teams 5-7. So, I would guess the committee will default to geography and separating teams from the same conference. So, the ACC runner up will quite likely go out East with Nova, Xavier would wind up out West with the Big Ten Champ (MSU?), and Big Ten #2 (Purdue?) would wind up with Kansas in the Midwest. If the conference tournaments go chalk, this is what I would expect to happen.
9) If MSU winds up out West, a Sweet 16 match up with either Arizona or Gonzaga seems real, real likely. Do we want to draw Zona? The press conference might be a lot of fun...
Anyway, that is were my head is at with lots of hoops left to go.
1) I really, really love bracketology, but in all honesty, I pay little or no attention to it at this time of year. Any bracket that Palm or Lunardi or whoever comes out with is “if the season ended today.” But, it doesn’t end today, so the analysis is fairly meaningless. The actual bracket will get build on one specific day based on all the information available on that day. Considering the fact that 32 single elimination tournaments will happen between now and then, and I just don’t think the current brackets have much meaning
2) I have a feeling that the initial bracket released by the committee is messing with everyone’s head anyway. Now, instead of just performing the analysis based on data and basketball knowledge (“the eye test.”) Everyone is trying to also guess what the committee is going to do. The initial bracket was such a mess that now everyone is confused. My gut feeling is that the committee rushed to get it out the door, used it as a bit of a training exercise, and didn’t think about it in much more detail than that. I think that when the real bracket is released, it will likely have a lot more thought that goes into it (and will resemble a bracket put together by reasonable experts). I really hope this is what happens. But, it is certainly possible that it will just be a random mess with BTT Champ MSU as a 4-seed and Oklahoma as a 2-seed. Since predicting stupid is hard, I would suggest the bracketologists just do an honest analysis and see how the chips fall.
That said, I think we can make some pretty good assumptions, if we project how the season might play out. Here are my gut feelings (with some history and analysis behind them)
3) If MSU wins on Friday, I think we are safely on the 2-line and safely in Detroit for the first weekend. In order to miss out on Detroit, MSU would need to drop to roughly 10 or 11 on the S curve, and I honestly don’t think that will happen. The biggest risk would be if Michigan wins the BTT over Purdue. In that case it is possible (but not likely) both teams wind up ahead of MSU on the S-curve, and that would be bad.
4) Virginia is clearly the “safest” 1-seed, which means the 1-seed in the South is out of play. Even if UVA were to flame out in the ACC tourney, the committee will likely give UVA a 1-seed anyway and give the ACC Champ (if it is UNC or Duke) one of the other 1-seeds.
5) Based on their current trajectory, Kansas is on cruise control and pulling away in the Big 12. Yes, they have some bad losses, but if they win the Big 12 tourney, I see no way that they don’t wind up as the 1-seed in the Midwest Region, especially considering the region is played Omaha. Even if they lose in the Final (for example) they still might wind up there.
6) Villanova has looked a bit vulnerable recently, so it will be interesting to see how they finish. If they win the Big East tourney, this is very simple: they are the 1-seed in the East and Xavier will most likely drop to a 2-seed. If Xavier wins the Big East, Nova might drop to a 2-seed. It is also certainly possible that the loser of the Big East final gets shipped out West to be the 1-seed, but I think an upset in the Big Ten would be necessary for this.
7) Considering all this, I think the highest possible seed that the MSU (or Purdue for that matter) can get is the #4 overall seed, which would result in getting the 1-seed in the West. (This assumes no major upsets in the Big 12 or Big East tournament). I am not sure that is a great scenario, so it might be better if Duke or UNC were to win the ACC tourney and get “rewarded” with the 1-seed out West. But, would the committee really have the stones to give UNC a 1-seed over MSU? Duke? Sure. UNC? Not sure.
8) The 2-seeds then get interesting. With the ACC champ in the South, possibly (or likely) being the #1 overall seed, I could see the SEC Champ (likely Auburn) getting placed there as the 2-seed. This makes sense based on geography and the S curve. The most likely remaining teams to be placed on the 2-line are the ACC, Big East, and Big 10 tourney runners up. On the S curve, I don’t think that there is going to be much of a difference between teams 5-7. So, I would guess the committee will default to geography and separating teams from the same conference. So, the ACC runner up will quite likely go out East with Nova, Xavier would wind up out West with the Big Ten Champ (MSU?), and Big Ten #2 (Purdue?) would wind up with Kansas in the Midwest. If the conference tournaments go chalk, this is what I would expect to happen.
9) If MSU winds up out West, a Sweet 16 match up with either Arizona or Gonzaga seems real, real likely. Do we want to draw Zona? The press conference might be a lot of fun...
Anyway, that is were my head is at with lots of hoops left to go.
