The first big test for Kalen DeBoer's Washington
No. 11 Michigan State at Washington (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)Twenty-five years ago, I was a freshman in college, just as likely to be playing EA's NCAA Football as going to class; Kalen DeBoer was a student assistant at NAIA's Sioux Falls, having just wrapped up a record-breaking receiver career there; Mel Tucker was a graduate assistant at Michigan State, having only recently turned to coaching after a failed pro career; and Jim Lambright's Washington Huskies pummeled Nick Saban's (and Tucker's) Spartans 51-23 in the Aloha Bowl.
On Saturday, the two teams will play again, for just the fourth time ever. Saban's done all right for himself elsewhere, Tucker's in charge in East Lansing, and after winning three national titles as head coach at Sioux Falls and going 12-6 in charge at Fresno State, DeBoer is in his third game as UW's head coach. (And I'm looking forward to the return of the video game next year. Not everything changes.)
Coming off of last year's disastrous 4-8 campaign, Washington has beaten Kent State and Portland State by a combined 97-26. The offense, so moribund in 2021, has found life by reuniting DeBoer, a former Indiana offensive coordinator, with former Hoosier quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Penix is 12th in Total QBR, Virginia transfer Wayne Taulapapa is averaging 6.6 yards per carry and sophomore blue-chipper Jalen McMillan has caught nine passes for 214 yards. Everything has worked according to plan, but now the competition level ratchets up considerably. Washington might rank third in the nation in points scored per drive, but Michigan State ranks fifth on defense against a similar caliber of competition.
This is a massive test for both teams, one the oddsmakers trust Washington to pass. The computers favor the Spartans (especially SP+), but the line has stuck at UW -3.5 for most of the week.
It wouldn't be a surprise if DeBoer got things turned around quickly. He's been great at almost every job he's ever had, and UW was very good as recently as 2019. But I'm still quite surprised by the line. MSU has suffered some injury issues -- linebacker Darius Snow is out for the season, safety Xavier Henderson could also be out, and star receiver Jayden Reed is still recovering from a hard fall into the sideline last week. But SP+ rarely disagrees this significantly with the line without quarterback injuries or a run of suspensions involved. Can the Huskies repay the faith?
Current line: UW -3.5 (up from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: MSU by 7.4 | FPI projection: MSU by 1.2
