Just out of curiosity, what everyone’s current level of confidence that MSU will make the tournament? After two straight losses, the pessimist crowd is out in force, but my honest answer to that question is about 75% that MSU makes the tournament. Why? Well…
1) I am an optimist.
Some of us are “optimists” and some of us are “pessimists” and pretty much the only thing non-MSU that we have in common is that we all believe that we are “realists.”
2) We have seen everyone on this roster play well at some point.
On some level, the team actually seems ahead of schedule to me. I knew back in October that with the number of young players and the front court injuries that this year could get real, real ugly. But, honestly the Freshman have been better than I expected. All four have played well to very well at some point this year. So has Tum, and so have Harris, McQuaid, Goines, Ellis, and even Ahrens and Van Dyke. The problem is that we have only seen about 1 or 2 guys play well at a time over the last few games (and really only on the offensive end). If only Bridges shows up or if only Harris shows up, we just aren’t that good. But, if 3-4 guys play to their potential, this team is pretty dog-gone good. They just haven’t for a week or so, and now some people seem to think that they just always sucked… and that is simply not true.
3) We have a HOF coach
This January swoon is really not that strange for a Coach Izzo team. It is all a part of the “30 games, get your crap together” process. So, a big part of me thinks that this is just the same movie that we see every year, and we basically know where it ends: at some point the train will emerge from the tunnel and it will be carrying a pretty good basketball team. But, the scenario is a bit different with all the young players. That part definitely is new, and the usual formula might fail in this case. That is where my 25% concern comes in. This IS uncharted territory, but we DO have a master navigator. I still have faith he can chart a course to the tournament.
4) The resume is… not terrible
Everyone knows that Izzo schedules a meat grinder in the fall, and the Duke, Kentucky, Arizona, and Baylor losses can all to some degree can be forgiven. The NE loss was without Miles entirely, and the PSU loss was with a not quite 100% Miles. As for OSU and IU on the road? Those games were likely viewed to be Ls back in the fall, even though both teams have underachieved. Road conference games are always tough. As for good wins… well, Wichita State is still a decent win, and the 2 wins over Minnesota (with an RPI of 18 right now, best in the B1G) are solid, as is that win over Northwestern (who, incidentally, leads the B1G with FOUR road wins). So, there is no huge, marquee win, but the resume is not a disaster either. It would help if the Gophers and Wildcats keep winning, though...
In all honestly, the thing that worries me the most right now is actually the fact that Hollis is the committee chairman. If MSU is on the bubble, he / the committee might feel that including MSU would be “bad optics.” I would like to think that Izzo could get the benefit of the doubt anyway, but if things get tight on Selection Sunday, I think Hollis’ position could be more of a hindrance than a help.
So, I am not sure which games MSU will win and how many wins are needed to make the tournament, but I think we will get there. Certainly history shows that more than 12 losses or so is likely in the danger zone, but at the end of the day, I think the streak will continue.
1) I am an optimist.
Some of us are “optimists” and some of us are “pessimists” and pretty much the only thing non-MSU that we have in common is that we all believe that we are “realists.”
2) We have seen everyone on this roster play well at some point.
On some level, the team actually seems ahead of schedule to me. I knew back in October that with the number of young players and the front court injuries that this year could get real, real ugly. But, honestly the Freshman have been better than I expected. All four have played well to very well at some point this year. So has Tum, and so have Harris, McQuaid, Goines, Ellis, and even Ahrens and Van Dyke. The problem is that we have only seen about 1 or 2 guys play well at a time over the last few games (and really only on the offensive end). If only Bridges shows up or if only Harris shows up, we just aren’t that good. But, if 3-4 guys play to their potential, this team is pretty dog-gone good. They just haven’t for a week or so, and now some people seem to think that they just always sucked… and that is simply not true.
3) We have a HOF coach
This January swoon is really not that strange for a Coach Izzo team. It is all a part of the “30 games, get your crap together” process. So, a big part of me thinks that this is just the same movie that we see every year, and we basically know where it ends: at some point the train will emerge from the tunnel and it will be carrying a pretty good basketball team. But, the scenario is a bit different with all the young players. That part definitely is new, and the usual formula might fail in this case. That is where my 25% concern comes in. This IS uncharted territory, but we DO have a master navigator. I still have faith he can chart a course to the tournament.
4) The resume is… not terrible
Everyone knows that Izzo schedules a meat grinder in the fall, and the Duke, Kentucky, Arizona, and Baylor losses can all to some degree can be forgiven. The NE loss was without Miles entirely, and the PSU loss was with a not quite 100% Miles. As for OSU and IU on the road? Those games were likely viewed to be Ls back in the fall, even though both teams have underachieved. Road conference games are always tough. As for good wins… well, Wichita State is still a decent win, and the 2 wins over Minnesota (with an RPI of 18 right now, best in the B1G) are solid, as is that win over Northwestern (who, incidentally, leads the B1G with FOUR road wins). So, there is no huge, marquee win, but the resume is not a disaster either. It would help if the Gophers and Wildcats keep winning, though...
In all honestly, the thing that worries me the most right now is actually the fact that Hollis is the committee chairman. If MSU is on the bubble, he / the committee might feel that including MSU would be “bad optics.” I would like to think that Izzo could get the benefit of the doubt anyway, but if things get tight on Selection Sunday, I think Hollis’ position could be more of a hindrance than a help.
So, I am not sure which games MSU will win and how many wins are needed to make the tournament, but I think we will get there. Certainly history shows that more than 12 losses or so is likely in the danger zone, but at the end of the day, I think the streak will continue.
