Got into a discussion with a family member last night, who is also a Michigan fan. He argued that Jim Harbaugh is worth at a minimum 3 wins and a maximum of 5 wins on the strength of his coaching, alone. He then said Michigan would win at least 8 games this season (5 wins last season plus 3 wins for the "Harbaugh factor") and could win as many as 10.
Without arguing about Michigan specifically, what value does coaching bring to college football. In 2006, MSU finished 4-8 with John L. Smith and then an interim coach. In 2007, MSU finished 7-5 in the regular season and lost the Bowl Game to finish 7-6. So, our experience is that Dantonio was worth 3 victories. But, is that representative?
In 2006, Stanford finished the season at 1-11. In 2007, with Harbaugh as Head Coach, Stanford finished 4-8. So, Harbaugh was worth 3 more victories.
In 2010, Michigan with Rich Rodriguez finished the regular season at 7-5 and lost the bowl game to finish at 7-6. In 2011, with Brady Hoke, Michigan finished the regular season at 10-2 and won the Bowl Game to finish at 11-2, an increase of 4 wins. But, Hoke is not considered a good coach.
Do you believe a good head coach is worth at least 3 more victories for a college football team or can you quantify the impact in the first season? How many more wins do you think Harbaugh is worth to Michigan this season, if any? Is there just a new coach bump that happens in college football?
Without arguing about Michigan specifically, what value does coaching bring to college football. In 2006, MSU finished 4-8 with John L. Smith and then an interim coach. In 2007, MSU finished 7-5 in the regular season and lost the Bowl Game to finish 7-6. So, our experience is that Dantonio was worth 3 victories. But, is that representative?
In 2006, Stanford finished the season at 1-11. In 2007, with Harbaugh as Head Coach, Stanford finished 4-8. So, Harbaugh was worth 3 more victories.
In 2010, Michigan with Rich Rodriguez finished the regular season at 7-5 and lost the bowl game to finish at 7-6. In 2011, with Brady Hoke, Michigan finished the regular season at 10-2 and won the Bowl Game to finish at 11-2, an increase of 4 wins. But, Hoke is not considered a good coach.
Do you believe a good head coach is worth at least 3 more victories for a college football team or can you quantify the impact in the first season? How many more wins do you think Harbaugh is worth to Michigan this season, if any? Is there just a new coach bump that happens in college football?
