I can't say that I have any information or idea of how or when the NCAA or the Big Ten might officially punish Michigan, but I have some thoughts on how this all might play out.
It seems unlikely that there will be any "official" punishment this season. I could be wrong about that, as unlike most previous violations (that are often in the realm of recruiting) this cheating scandal directly impacts winning and losing THIS YEAR. I think that it would be completely reasonable for the NCAA or the Big Ten to say "we already have enough evidence to make Michigan ineligible for the post-season this year." That is possible, but it seems unlikely. The NCAA is too slow and I doubt the Big Ten will act.
But I do wonder if there could be a form of "soft punishment" this year. If Michigan runs the table and wins the Big Ten again... the hands of the selection committee and the NCAA will be tied. They will have to either punish them or let them into the playoffs. BUT, if Michigan were to lose at least one game and not make the Big Ten Championship Game, then the selection committee has a lot more options. Right now, I only give Michigan a 30% chance to run the table and a 40% chance to make it to Indy, so this scenario is very much on the table.
Michigan has a weak strength of schedule relative to other Power Five teams, and right now I am projecting that there will be around 10 teams that finish the regular season with no more than one loss. It looks like there will be several options for the playoffs. As it stands now, Florida State, the Big Ten champ (either Ohio State or Penn State in this scenario), the SEC champ (Alabama or Georgia), the Pac 12 champ (Washington or Oregon), and the Big 12 Champ (Texas or Oklahoma) all will have strong claims on a playoff spot. In a normal year, one could make the argument that Michigan could or should get a second berth from the Big Ten over one of those teams. But this year? With this scandal looming over the season? Maybe not.
In my preseason analysis, I predicted that Penn State would win the Big Ten thanks to a three-way tie in the Big Ten East. I also predicted Michigan would finish ranked No. 5 as the "last team out" of the playoffs. In the current environment, this is even more likely.
A final ranking of No. 5 would push Michigan to the Orange Bowl to play most likely North Carolina, I project. But if the selection committee could also stick Michigan at No. 6 or No. 7 and pair them with the top Group of Five team in the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowl. This seems less likely, but it could be another type of soft punishment.
Just imagine Michigan losing only to either Penn State or Ohio State and then drawing Liberty in the Cotton. Then imagine half of the Wolverines sitting out to enter the draft and then actually losing to Liberty. That might be more fun than a post-season ban.
As for the Big Ten, I would have to imagine that they will not officially punish Michigan, but you have to guess that the leadership which much prefer to see either Penn State or Ohio State in Indy. I wonder if there will be a few more holding or pass interference calls going against Big Blue in Happy Valley than one might expect. I shouldn't fuel the already super charged Michigan paranoia machine, but I could very easily see this happening.
For any Michigan fans out there, know this. Yes, "they" may be "out to get you." You know why? Because you earned that disdain by cheating, lying, and being a rogue athletic department for decades, especially if I count basketball back to the Fab Four and before. People don't like you because of the way you behave and not becuase they are jealous of your "success". You are corrupt and the authorities usually eventually come after people and institutions who consistently break the rules. That is the way the real world works outside of your bubble. Get used to it.
Finally, I would like to acknowledge that it is difficult for any fan in the state of Michigan to be rational and unbiased about this scandal and therefore how it should be handled. There are a lot of Wolverines who think that they did nothing wrong and there are a lot of Michigan State fans who would advocate for the death penalty. But let's try to think about this scandal from a more neutral point of view.
Let's say that instead of at Michigan, the following situation were to have played out at Florida. Between 2015 and 2020, Florida and Michigan had similar records. Florida was 52-24 while Michigan was 49-22. Both teams had three double-digit winning seasons in that span and one losing season. Both teams hired a new coach in 2015. One could argue that Florida was more successful, as the Gator won or shared the SEC East title three times in that space and won three bowl games. Michigan only won a single bowl game and just had one tie for the Big Ten East crown. They were comparable programs prior to the current scandel with similar tradition.
So now let's imagine a scenario where in 2021, Florida was really good. They lost an early game to Alabama by a few points, but beat Georgia, won the SEC and made it to the playoffs before losing badly to Ohio State. Then, in 2022, Florida goes undefeated, beats Georgia again badly, and goes to the playoffs before getting upset by TCU. In 2023, they start strong, but are accused of an elaborate cheating scandal.
How would people in the Big Ten view the Gators and the last two years? I have a feeling a lot of Michigan fans would not just be poo-pooing the allegations. They would be claiming that the sudden surge in wins and success was due to typical SEC cheating. They would be calling for a multi-year post season ban. When the shoe is on the other foot, it tends not to feel as good.
It seems unlikely that there will be any "official" punishment this season. I could be wrong about that, as unlike most previous violations (that are often in the realm of recruiting) this cheating scandal directly impacts winning and losing THIS YEAR. I think that it would be completely reasonable for the NCAA or the Big Ten to say "we already have enough evidence to make Michigan ineligible for the post-season this year." That is possible, but it seems unlikely. The NCAA is too slow and I doubt the Big Ten will act.
But I do wonder if there could be a form of "soft punishment" this year. If Michigan runs the table and wins the Big Ten again... the hands of the selection committee and the NCAA will be tied. They will have to either punish them or let them into the playoffs. BUT, if Michigan were to lose at least one game and not make the Big Ten Championship Game, then the selection committee has a lot more options. Right now, I only give Michigan a 30% chance to run the table and a 40% chance to make it to Indy, so this scenario is very much on the table.
Michigan has a weak strength of schedule relative to other Power Five teams, and right now I am projecting that there will be around 10 teams that finish the regular season with no more than one loss. It looks like there will be several options for the playoffs. As it stands now, Florida State, the Big Ten champ (either Ohio State or Penn State in this scenario), the SEC champ (Alabama or Georgia), the Pac 12 champ (Washington or Oregon), and the Big 12 Champ (Texas or Oklahoma) all will have strong claims on a playoff spot. In a normal year, one could make the argument that Michigan could or should get a second berth from the Big Ten over one of those teams. But this year? With this scandal looming over the season? Maybe not.
In my preseason analysis, I predicted that Penn State would win the Big Ten thanks to a three-way tie in the Big Ten East. I also predicted Michigan would finish ranked No. 5 as the "last team out" of the playoffs. In the current environment, this is even more likely.
A final ranking of No. 5 would push Michigan to the Orange Bowl to play most likely North Carolina, I project. But if the selection committee could also stick Michigan at No. 6 or No. 7 and pair them with the top Group of Five team in the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowl. This seems less likely, but it could be another type of soft punishment.
Just imagine Michigan losing only to either Penn State or Ohio State and then drawing Liberty in the Cotton. Then imagine half of the Wolverines sitting out to enter the draft and then actually losing to Liberty. That might be more fun than a post-season ban.
As for the Big Ten, I would have to imagine that they will not officially punish Michigan, but you have to guess that the leadership which much prefer to see either Penn State or Ohio State in Indy. I wonder if there will be a few more holding or pass interference calls going against Big Blue in Happy Valley than one might expect. I shouldn't fuel the already super charged Michigan paranoia machine, but I could very easily see this happening.
For any Michigan fans out there, know this. Yes, "they" may be "out to get you." You know why? Because you earned that disdain by cheating, lying, and being a rogue athletic department for decades, especially if I count basketball back to the Fab Four and before. People don't like you because of the way you behave and not becuase they are jealous of your "success". You are corrupt and the authorities usually eventually come after people and institutions who consistently break the rules. That is the way the real world works outside of your bubble. Get used to it.
Finally, I would like to acknowledge that it is difficult for any fan in the state of Michigan to be rational and unbiased about this scandal and therefore how it should be handled. There are a lot of Wolverines who think that they did nothing wrong and there are a lot of Michigan State fans who would advocate for the death penalty. But let's try to think about this scandal from a more neutral point of view.
Let's say that instead of at Michigan, the following situation were to have played out at Florida. Between 2015 and 2020, Florida and Michigan had similar records. Florida was 52-24 while Michigan was 49-22. Both teams had three double-digit winning seasons in that span and one losing season. Both teams hired a new coach in 2015. One could argue that Florida was more successful, as the Gator won or shared the SEC East title three times in that space and won three bowl games. Michigan only won a single bowl game and just had one tie for the Big Ten East crown. They were comparable programs prior to the current scandel with similar tradition.
So now let's imagine a scenario where in 2021, Florida was really good. They lost an early game to Alabama by a few points, but beat Georgia, won the SEC and made it to the playoffs before losing badly to Ohio State. Then, in 2022, Florida goes undefeated, beats Georgia again badly, and goes to the playoffs before getting upset by TCU. In 2023, they start strong, but are accused of an elaborate cheating scandal.
How would people in the Big Ten view the Gators and the last two years? I have a feeling a lot of Michigan fans would not just be poo-pooing the allegations. They would be claiming that the sudden surge in wins and success was due to typical SEC cheating. They would be calling for a multi-year post season ban. When the shoe is on the other foot, it tends not to feel as good.
