... that would be weird, because 20% of the season is still left. (Sorry, but I hate that line of reasoning). So, the better question to ask is something like this:
If the projected favorite wins all of the rest of the Big Ten games, what would the final standings look like? This, by definition, is the most likely (yet still REALLY unlikely) outcome out of the possible 268 million remaining season outcomes. When I crunch the numbers and figure the tie-breakers, I get this:
1. Maryland 16-4
2. Illinois 13-7
3. Penn State 13-7
4. Michigan State 12-8
5. Iowa 12-8
6. Wisconsin 12-8
7. Ohio State 11-9
8. Michigan 11-9
9. Indiana 10-10
10. Rutgers 9-11
11. Purdue 9-11
12. Minnesota 8-12
13. Nebraska 3-17
14. Northwestern 1-19
MSU would win the 3-way tie-breaker with Iowa and Wisconsin (assuming in this scenario that MSU beats Iowa on Tuesday). MSU is also in good shape if we wind up tied with Illinois.
Using these seeds, I simulated the Big Ten tournament and get the following odds to win:
MSU = 20%
Maryland = 18%
Penn State = 13%
Michigan = 11%
Ohio State = 11%
Illinois = 8%
Iowa = 7%
Wisconsin = 4%
Does MSU still have a reasonable shot to hand a banner? Maybe so...
Also, with Penn State and Maryland losing today, MSU regular season title odds are now at 11%. IF MSU can win the next two, the odds will shoot up to ~40%.
Just sayin'
If the projected favorite wins all of the rest of the Big Ten games, what would the final standings look like? This, by definition, is the most likely (yet still REALLY unlikely) outcome out of the possible 268 million remaining season outcomes. When I crunch the numbers and figure the tie-breakers, I get this:
1. Maryland 16-4
2. Illinois 13-7
3. Penn State 13-7
4. Michigan State 12-8
5. Iowa 12-8
6. Wisconsin 12-8
7. Ohio State 11-9
8. Michigan 11-9
9. Indiana 10-10
10. Rutgers 9-11
11. Purdue 9-11
12. Minnesota 8-12
13. Nebraska 3-17
14. Northwestern 1-19
MSU would win the 3-way tie-breaker with Iowa and Wisconsin (assuming in this scenario that MSU beats Iowa on Tuesday). MSU is also in good shape if we wind up tied with Illinois.
Using these seeds, I simulated the Big Ten tournament and get the following odds to win:
MSU = 20%
Maryland = 18%
Penn State = 13%
Michigan = 11%
Ohio State = 11%
Illinois = 8%
Iowa = 7%
Wisconsin = 4%
Does MSU still have a reasonable shot to hand a banner? Maybe so...
Also, with Penn State and Maryland losing today, MSU regular season title odds are now at 11%. IF MSU can win the next two, the odds will shoot up to ~40%.
Just sayin'
