So, here are the relevant stats related to that:
Historically, this corresponds to a 74% chance MSU wins, which of course is critical. MSU has a great chance to beat the rapidly flagging Huskers mid-week and might just wind up clinching the Big Ten by March 5th when Purdue goes to Minneapolis. Then, MSU could beat the Wolverines on Senior Day to earn solo possession of first place and earn Izzo's 600th win in the process. But, that all starts with winning in Bloomington.
Based on Kenpom data, MSU should be closer to an 8.5 point favorite, which suggests the "Ward injury adjustment" is around 3 points per 100 possessions in marginal efficiency. This would drop MSU from #4 to #7 in Kenpom, still slightly ahead of Michigan. This adjustment would also put MSU is a virtual tie with Purdue in odds to win / share the Big Ten title at 70% vs. 65% in MSU's favor.
Historically, this corresponds to a 74% chance MSU wins, which of course is critical. MSU has a great chance to beat the rapidly flagging Huskers mid-week and might just wind up clinching the Big Ten by March 5th when Purdue goes to Minneapolis. Then, MSU could beat the Wolverines on Senior Day to earn solo possession of first place and earn Izzo's 600th win in the process. But, that all starts with winning in Bloomington.
Based on Kenpom data, MSU should be closer to an 8.5 point favorite, which suggests the "Ward injury adjustment" is around 3 points per 100 possessions in marginal efficiency. This would drop MSU from #4 to #7 in Kenpom, still slightly ahead of Michigan. This adjustment would also put MSU is a virtual tie with Purdue in odds to win / share the Big Ten title at 70% vs. 65% in MSU's favor.
