It should be pretty clear by now that MSU and Michigan are the top 2 teams in the conference. One or the other or both teams will likely win the Big Ten regular season unless something big changes between now and early March. There has been a lot of discussion about which team has a tougher remaining schedule. I sifted through the data a little and I think this analysis may help.
You can basically break the schedules down into 3 categories of remaining games:
1) Games that are the same for both teams (roughly in order of decreasing importance and/or difficultly)
-The two games against each other (duh)
@ Wisconsin
@ Indiana
@ Iowa
@ Penn State
vs. Nebraska
vs. Maryland
vs. Ohio State
@ Illinois
vs. Minnesota
So, these 11 games are a push.
2) Games shared by both teams where one game is already in the books
For Michigan:
@ Rutgers
vs. Northwestern
For MSU:
vs. Indiana
Basically, UofM needs to match MSU's wins and MSU needs to match UofM's win over IU. Kenpom says all three contests are ~80-90% likely to be wins right not, so this is a small effect. Also, in a couple of days, I assume I will need to add @ Illinois to MSU's list.
So, the games where the schedules diverge are:
3) Remaining contests that are unique to each team's schedule
For Michigan:
@ Maryland (55% chance to win)
@ Minnesota (71%)
vs. Wisconsin (73%)
For MSU:
@ Nebraska (56%)
@ Purdue (59%)
vs. Rutgers (96%)
Clearly the games at Maryland and at Nebraska are basically a wash. So, the real difference in the schedules right now are that are the remaining four games.
For Michigan the games @ Minnesota and vs. Wisconsin project as wins with UofM as only about a 6-point favorite. For MSU, the Rutgers game is essentially the easiest game on the schedule, but the game at Purdue is much more challenging.
So, which is better? Having two sort of tough games or having one tough game and one easy game? The math (right now) says MSU's 3-game set is slightly easier on balance, which suggests MSU's remaining path is now slightly easier than UofM's path. But, it is debatable.
Also, MSU plays at Nebraska and at Purdue in the next 5 game stretch. So, we will know very soon how these games shake out. If MSU can win both, they really are putting pressure on UofM to match them. For UofM, they don't go to Maryland or Minnesota until late February. It will be interesting to see what they have left in the tank by then.
Anyway, food for thought.
You can basically break the schedules down into 3 categories of remaining games:
1) Games that are the same for both teams (roughly in order of decreasing importance and/or difficultly)
-The two games against each other (duh)
@ Wisconsin
@ Indiana
@ Iowa
@ Penn State
vs. Nebraska
vs. Maryland
vs. Ohio State
@ Illinois
vs. Minnesota
So, these 11 games are a push.
2) Games shared by both teams where one game is already in the books
For Michigan:
@ Rutgers
vs. Northwestern
For MSU:
vs. Indiana
Basically, UofM needs to match MSU's wins and MSU needs to match UofM's win over IU. Kenpom says all three contests are ~80-90% likely to be wins right not, so this is a small effect. Also, in a couple of days, I assume I will need to add @ Illinois to MSU's list.
So, the games where the schedules diverge are:
3) Remaining contests that are unique to each team's schedule
For Michigan:
@ Maryland (55% chance to win)
@ Minnesota (71%)
vs. Wisconsin (73%)
For MSU:
@ Nebraska (56%)
@ Purdue (59%)
vs. Rutgers (96%)
Clearly the games at Maryland and at Nebraska are basically a wash. So, the real difference in the schedules right now are that are the remaining four games.
For Michigan the games @ Minnesota and vs. Wisconsin project as wins with UofM as only about a 6-point favorite. For MSU, the Rutgers game is essentially the easiest game on the schedule, but the game at Purdue is much more challenging.
So, which is better? Having two sort of tough games or having one tough game and one easy game? The math (right now) says MSU's 3-game set is slightly easier on balance, which suggests MSU's remaining path is now slightly easier than UofM's path. But, it is debatable.
Also, MSU plays at Nebraska and at Purdue in the next 5 game stretch. So, we will know very soon how these games shake out. If MSU can win both, they really are putting pressure on UofM to match them. For UofM, they don't go to Maryland or Minnesota until late February. It will be interesting to see what they have left in the tank by then.
Anyway, food for thought.
