Those that follow Kenpom style advanced metrics are likely familiar with "the 4 factors." I am not sure of the exact history, but the basic idea is that there are 4 factors that primarily contribute to winning and losing in basketball. Those factors are (in order of importance):
1) effective shooting %
2) turn over %
3) offensive rebounding %
4) free throw attempt rate (FTA/FGA)
Basically, factors 1 and 4 capture the ability to score or get to the the FT line, while factors 2 and 3 capture the number of scoring opportunities.
I have been looking at the coming match-up between MSU and UofM and I just wanted to try to give a quick summary of the analytical side of this match-up.
When MSU has the ball:
Statistically, MSU does two things on offense very well: shoot (#15 in the country) and offensive rebound (#20). MSU is the best team that UofM has faced this year in either category. So, despite the fact that Michigan does a great job defending both of these areas (#7 in effective FG defense and #34 in defensive rebounding), there is some reason for optimism here. That said, UofM is also the best eFG% defense MSU has faced and in the Top 2 of defensive rebounding. So, this is truly strength on strength.
As for the other 2 factors, MSU is just OK at getting to the FT line (149), but UofM has been very, very good at "not (getting called for) fouls." (5). So, if MSU can draw some fouls and get some freebies, that would be a big story line. This was one of the ways in which Penn State staged an upset. But, I would not expect to see MSU at the line very often.
Then, there are the turnovers. MSU is not great in this regard (201), but the good news is that UofM does not exactly focus on creating turn-overs either (138). So, I think that this is simply a question of focus. If MSU can avoid casual mistakes, UofM is not going to create a lot of TOs. This may be the key on offense for MSU.
When UofM has the ball
When it comes to just shooting, this is the match-up where MSU appears to have the biggest advantage. MSU is #5 in eFG% defense, which again in the best defense that UofM has seen. But, in contrast to the opposite match-up, Michigan is just an average shooting team (124). MSU needs to dominate this match-up.
As for getting to the FT line, UofM simply does not draw a lot of fouls (291) and MSU is pretty good at "not fouling" (64). So, it would be unusual for UofM to have a huge day at the line. The stats suggest the FT line should not be a factor in this game at all. But, we shall see.
But, Michigan is very good at one thing on offense, and that is taking care of the rock (#3 in TO rate) while MSU flat out doesn't create TOs (326). This is a stat to watch as it has the potential to compensate or over-compensate for the relative lack of shooting. If MSU can play lock-down D and if UofM gets casual with the ball (somehow), UofM is unlikely to score enough points to win.
As for rebounding, UofM is not very good at it, on the offensive end (285), while MSU is just OK at cleaning the defensive glass (136). This is a match-up that MSU needs to and should win.
Add it up:
So, if we take all these things into account, here is what I think we can expect to see. The FT line is not likely to be a huge factor. MSU may have a very slight edge, statistically, but it is unlikely to be big. If either team has a big edge here, it will be notable. Similarly, I would expect rebounding to roughly cancel out. I don't think either team will have a big edge here in scoring opportunities.
As for shooting, it will be a battle when MSU has the ball, but the stats say MSU has a bigger edge in this regard when UofM has the ball. MSU needs to (and should) win the shooting battle.
But, the turn-over story could be the deciding factor. MSU is likely to turn over the ball more than UofM. The question is whether they can shoot (or defend) well enough to over-come this deficit.
Either way, I think that it is best to think about this game as playing with house money. It is almost certainly the toughest game on the whole schedule. If MSU wins, we control our own destiny. If MSU loses, it will definitely suck, but it is not season crushing.
Go Green and enjoy!
1) effective shooting %
2) turn over %
3) offensive rebounding %
4) free throw attempt rate (FTA/FGA)
Basically, factors 1 and 4 capture the ability to score or get to the the FT line, while factors 2 and 3 capture the number of scoring opportunities.
I have been looking at the coming match-up between MSU and UofM and I just wanted to try to give a quick summary of the analytical side of this match-up.
When MSU has the ball:
Statistically, MSU does two things on offense very well: shoot (#15 in the country) and offensive rebound (#20). MSU is the best team that UofM has faced this year in either category. So, despite the fact that Michigan does a great job defending both of these areas (#7 in effective FG defense and #34 in defensive rebounding), there is some reason for optimism here. That said, UofM is also the best eFG% defense MSU has faced and in the Top 2 of defensive rebounding. So, this is truly strength on strength.
As for the other 2 factors, MSU is just OK at getting to the FT line (149), but UofM has been very, very good at "not (getting called for) fouls." (5). So, if MSU can draw some fouls and get some freebies, that would be a big story line. This was one of the ways in which Penn State staged an upset. But, I would not expect to see MSU at the line very often.
Then, there are the turnovers. MSU is not great in this regard (201), but the good news is that UofM does not exactly focus on creating turn-overs either (138). So, I think that this is simply a question of focus. If MSU can avoid casual mistakes, UofM is not going to create a lot of TOs. This may be the key on offense for MSU.
When UofM has the ball
When it comes to just shooting, this is the match-up where MSU appears to have the biggest advantage. MSU is #5 in eFG% defense, which again in the best defense that UofM has seen. But, in contrast to the opposite match-up, Michigan is just an average shooting team (124). MSU needs to dominate this match-up.
As for getting to the FT line, UofM simply does not draw a lot of fouls (291) and MSU is pretty good at "not fouling" (64). So, it would be unusual for UofM to have a huge day at the line. The stats suggest the FT line should not be a factor in this game at all. But, we shall see.
But, Michigan is very good at one thing on offense, and that is taking care of the rock (#3 in TO rate) while MSU flat out doesn't create TOs (326). This is a stat to watch as it has the potential to compensate or over-compensate for the relative lack of shooting. If MSU can play lock-down D and if UofM gets casual with the ball (somehow), UofM is unlikely to score enough points to win.
As for rebounding, UofM is not very good at it, on the offensive end (285), while MSU is just OK at cleaning the defensive glass (136). This is a match-up that MSU needs to and should win.
Add it up:
So, if we take all these things into account, here is what I think we can expect to see. The FT line is not likely to be a huge factor. MSU may have a very slight edge, statistically, but it is unlikely to be big. If either team has a big edge here, it will be notable. Similarly, I would expect rebounding to roughly cancel out. I don't think either team will have a big edge here in scoring opportunities.
As for shooting, it will be a battle when MSU has the ball, but the stats say MSU has a bigger edge in this regard when UofM has the ball. MSU needs to (and should) win the shooting battle.
But, the turn-over story could be the deciding factor. MSU is likely to turn over the ball more than UofM. The question is whether they can shoot (or defend) well enough to over-come this deficit.
Either way, I think that it is best to think about this game as playing with house money. It is almost certainly the toughest game on the whole schedule. If MSU wins, we control our own destiny. If MSU loses, it will definitely suck, but it is not season crushing.
Go Green and enjoy!
