Parts 2 and 3 can be found below, and are also pinned atop The Underground Bunker message board.
The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State v. Iowa (The Macro)
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - We learned over the years that Mark Dantonio could get the Spartans up to fight, and often beat Michigan, and then reboot the following week to continue to play sound football.
Now, can Mel Tucker do the same?
Tucker orchestrated a phenomenal performance against Michigan, from the outset of practice week up through the bus ride to the stadium - and he had like-minded leaders helping at every turn. It’s largely up to those leaders to make sure the same level of competence, excellence and focus is used this week at Iowa. There’s no way Michigan State will travel with the same level of caged rage that they had last week. That’s impossible. Rivalry-week venom can’t be replicated week after week. But the physicality, precision, intelligence and avoidance of mistakes CAN travel to Iowa, and it must, in order for Michigan State to pass this tough test against a fairly good Iowa team.
Fairly good?
Iowa is 0-2. But the numbers that tell more of the story are the scores:
Northwestern 21, Iowa 20.
Purdue 24, Iowa 20.
Northwestern and Purdue are 2-0. Do you think they’re all that good? They’re okay.
Iowa is 0-2. Roughly the same type of team as those two opponents. And roughly the same as Michigan State … and Rutgers.
At least that’s the opinion on Michigan State for now from my seat, and the seats in Vegas, until Michigan State proves otherwise.
If Michigan State can beat Iowa worse than Northwestern and Purdue did, it won’t mean anything in terms of the transitive property, but it will mean that Michigan State is continuing to trend upward with a 2-1 record.
******
I didn’t think we would have a chance to learn so much about the future of Michigan State football as we might this week. And the same can obviously said about last week.
In early October, I didn’t think the future of the QB position could potentially look as good here on Nov. 6 as it does - if Lombardi can string together another fine performance. And the future of the WR position looks excellent. The future of the RB position is cloudy. Jordon Simmons looks promising, but Elijah Collins has struggled and Anthony Williams has yet to see the field, due to internal accountability missteps.
The offensive line is good in pass protection, but is behind schedule in run blocking. The latter was a bit better last week. It needs to take another step this week.
What might we learn this weekend? That Tucker can lead a team to carry on after a mammoth victory? That Lombardi is an every-week gamer? That the run game is finally coming around? That the Michigan State defensive front seven can contain a decent Iowa running attack?
I thought this fall could devolve into an exhibition season of practice and hopes for progress. Instead, if Michigan State can follow up last week with a road win at Iowa, we might begin to see tangible immediate progress from Tucker and company that I wasn’t expecting and no one was demanding. But here they are, with a chance to march on and continue to surprise.
Beating Iowa wouldn’t be a big surprise. Iowa isn’t great. But harnessing a level of week-to-week competence - especially after the bumbling opener against Rutgers - would help advance Michigan State toward the next chapters of what could become a more rapid rise for Tucker than any of us expected.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
This is a slightly watered down Iowa team. They still look like Iowa, they still attempt Iowa things, and they still do a lot of Iowa things. But they don’t do all of them quite as well as the best Iowa teams, and not as well as last year’s 10-3 Iowa team.
Iowa is very shaky at QB. Talented arm strength, but inconsistent with reads and accuracy and visibly diminishing confidence.
Michigan State has the better QB in this game.
Iowa has two or three good RBs. They are quick, smallish strong guys who battle nicely for tough yards.
The o-line is good, not great. They’re tough with their inside and outside zones and occasional gap schemes - like they’ve been for 20 years. Pass protection is good, not great.
Iowa’s run blocking is better than MSU’s. MSU’s pass protection is a little better, and Michigan State has a QB who trusts pass protection and hangs in the pocket better than Iowa’s QB.
Neither QB is a great runner, but MSU’s Lombardi has a better pocket timer, better initial quickness and better instincts.
Iowa’s run game is better than MSU’s - the combination of better RBs and better run blocking.
Iowa’s tight ends are much better than MSU’s.
The defensive lines are about the same.
MSU’s linebackers are better in run defense than Iowa’s.
MSU’s safeties are better in run defense than Iowa’s.
Iowa’s linebackers and safeties aren’t the fast-flow hammers that they’ve been in the past. They’re late to the ball. Safety run support at Iowa is not as good as it used to be.
Both teams play good, intricate zone coverages. Iowa has had a couple of costly miscommunications in zone coverage this year, including a couple in the red zone. Michigan State has yet to have any major communication/coverage errors in the secondary. Edge Michigan State, for now.
Both teams’ kickers are good, Iowa’s a little better.
**
THE KEYS:
1. Michigan State must stop/contain the run and make shaky QB Spencer Petras beat them.
This is a cliché that can be applied to many games each week. But in this case, Iowa has a pretty good run game. If Iowa is able to lean on that run game, they will have taken a huge step toward victory and Michigan State will have let Petras off the hook.
2. Michigan State can drastically help itself by mustering its best running attack of the season. I’m not predicting that the Spartans will achieve this. But you don’t have to be great on the ground to move the ball against Iowa. Not this year. In past years, good running teams were grounded by Iowa. This year, merely decent run teams CAN run the ball against Iowa.
Is Michigan State ready to be merely decent in the run game?
Michigan State was horrible on the ground against Rutgers.
Michigan State was a bit better last week, rushing for 126 yards against Michigan.
Purdue’s tailback rushed for 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 per try). He had a 33-yarder to the edge when the Iowa inside linebackers were caught on an inside blitz. Other than that, he was consistently productive. Not great, but productive.
Purdue is a pass-first team. Purdue etched out some work on the ground as an important complement to victory.
Purdue finished with just 104 net yards rushing after sacks were counted. Purdue had only 21 tailback runs in the game - all by Zander Horvath.
Michigan State will run attempt more than 21 tailback runs. If Michigan State can get something close to the 3.9 yards per carry average that Jordon Simmons had, on 28-plus carries, then Michigan State will be a good step toward victory.
Complement that with a couple of jet sweeps and a Lombardi QB draw or two, and just one creaser by a tailback, and you get up to about 160 yards rushing, and then it will be two giant steps toward victory - as long as you avoid turnovers.
3. It’s another time-honored cliché, but the team that can avoid mistakes in this game will win.
Iowa lost to Purdue because Iowa fumbled twice in the red zone and had two costly penalties in the red zone.
Iowa led Purdue 20-14 early in the fourth quarter, but could not finish.
Michigan State lost to Rutgers due to turnovers.
Iowa lost to Northwestern because Iowa tried inexplicably to rely on the pass too much, and QB Petras was terrible in the fourth quarter with two late interceptions and shaky body language.
Both teams have lost games due to mistakes.
Michigan State was a gem last week in terms of avoiding mistakes.
Which team is better at FORCING mistakes? Iowa has been very good at forcing turnovers and interceptions with its deceptive zone defenses over the years. But Iowa’s running backs have had a problem with fumbles, and Iowa’s quarterback has been far more prone to the interception than Lombardi.
Petras has a big arm, too big of an arm at times. Two of his INTs this season have been a case of throwing too hard (and off-target) through the hands of his receivers (too high, or behind them).
So I don’t know how to predict the mistake category. Michigan State was noticeably more mindful of ball security last week, with RBs and WRs having two hands over the ball more often than a week earlier.
THE MATCHUPS
* Michigan State run offense vs Iowa run defense
Michigan State was improved in this area last week, partly do to center Nick Samac playing better than Matt Allen. Allen missed last week with an undisclosed injury. Even if Allen is healthy, I would expect Samac to start and hold the job for the rest of the season.
Offensive guards Blake Bueter and Matt Carrick took their games up a level last week. Their confidence is on an uptick. Maybe they’re ready for another step.
MSU’s run blocking was terrible in week one, functional in week two. Anyone betting on better-than-functional in week three?
Iowa’s run defense is good on the d-line. But the linebackers and safeties have not been good at supporting the run thus far this year. Early in the season, something like that can be improved upon - especially with proven quality-control coaches like Iowa’s DC Phil Parker.
Which are will show more progress? Michigan State in run blocking, or Iowa in back-seven run support? You’ll find out when I do.
Iowa’s d-line is solid-to-good, but I don’t see the bash masters who can completely uproot your interior that Iowa has had at times in the past.
Here’s the weird thing: Northwestern stayed almost entirely on the ground against Iowa. Northwestern rushed the ball 60 times against Iowa. SIXTY! Only 18 pass attempts.
Yet Northwestern rushed for only 143 yards.
I don’t know how that’s possible, even though I watched the game twice.
Northwestern rushed the ball 60 times, for a mere average of 2.3 yards per carry.
Northwestern’s longest run of the day was a 21-yard scramble by QB Payton Ramsey when he caught Iowa in man-to-man (rare for the Hawkeyes).
Northwestern just kept chopping off gains of 4, 5, 1, 2, 0, 3 and moved the chains just enough on three TDs drives to get the win.
Purdue picked up a pair of crucial third-and-twos in the fourth quarter, leading to scoring drives. Ran it up the gut. Iowa wasn’t bad up the middle, but not good enough to get the stop. In Iowa’s better years, you wouldn’t think about running up the middle on a key third-and-two. You would have to find a better avenue.
Iowa doesn’t get creased and gashed for 15-yard run after 15-yard run. It’s an accumulation of 4- and 5-yard gains because the LBs and safeties aren’t up to the Iowa standard. Also, Iowa is playing with its slot LB a step further outside the box than in past years, with this “Cash” concept, which is basically just morphing from their old 4-3 into making the third LB a little more of a nickel back in terms of positioning against 3-WR sets, although he’s still a fairly sizable guy.
The slot LB is further from the box, Iowa's safeties don't support the run on time, and one of the LBs (49) kind of plays like Noah Harvey did against Rutgers. Not that foggy, but he's not an on-time hammer.
Again, you don’t have to be a great running team to move the ball on the ground against Iowa. But you’d better be pretty decent. Michigan State needs to be pretty decent with the ground game to win this game. Not sure if they’re there yet.
Michigan State can help itself with the type of rhythm and balance the Spartans showed last week. Michigan State stayed out of obvious pass situations with a fairly eclectic play selection, especially on the first play of its drives.
How Michigan State can arrive that an optimal level of rhythm and balance in play design and play selection? I don’t have any suggestions in that area, but we’ll know it if we see it. We saw it last week. It was pretty.
* Michigan State pass game vs Iowa pass defense
Iowa held Northwestern’s Payton Ramsey to 11 of 18 passing for 130 yards and one INT.
Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell, a former walk-on, was 31 of 50 for 282 with 3 TDs and 2 INTs.
Rocky Lombardi has thrown for more than 300 yards in the first two weeks.
Michigan State picked on matchup advantages at WR against Michigan CBs last week, especially in the speed department (which was a surprise to me), and also with quick, intricate release moves and double moves by Ricky White.
That stuff won’t be available this week. Not very often anyway.
Iowa will bail into its zone coverages, and disguise things while doing so, and protect over the top with safety help. They won’t bite on double-moves, their CBs aren’t left on an island to bite. Plus, they’ve seen the Ricky White film. They’ll have a better feel for his moves and strengths than Michigan had.
Still, if you catch Iowa in a cover-three blitz (which they will do three or four times a game), the bailing CB basically gets left in man-to-man if you run a deep go route at him. Usually, you want to run a comeback against bailing cover-three. But if Michigan State wants to take a deep shot, it’s do-able against cover-three blitz if you have time to throw a quickish deep fade. Purdue tried it twice last week, once for defensive pass interference, one for offensive pass interference.
But, for the most part, the deep shot won’t be something Michigan State will attempt 14 times like they did last week. Cue the talk show hosts to howl about “Why did Michigan State go away from what worked so great against Michigan???!!”
It’s a different opponent with different coverages.
**
So what’s open against Iowa? You have to be patient against the zone and find the openings such as the cover-two window to the sideline via the smash concept. You can do it a few times a game, but you can’t live on it every single down. The windows change and close, especially if and when Iowa surprises you by dropping eight. When they drop eight, basically no one is open. They do it well, and maybe should consider doing it more often.
There are the shallow crossers if you read man-to-man.
There are the digs and in routes, behind the linebackers and in front of the safeties, if you can stretch the safeties with complementary routes and have time to get to the in-route openings.
Of course Iowa knows that this is where the openings are too, and when Iowa is good, they are planting and leaning toward those openings as you are throwing there, and they arrive with force and/or a hand on the ball for maddening interceptions.
As for the Iowa pass rush, they have a nifty-footed DT in Daviyon Nixon, when he is allowed to disengage and attempt to cross-face and isn’t just two-gapping. For the most part, they get home on sacks via coverage sacks when the QB gets caught staring into the flashlight of Iowa’s deceptively difficult coverages.
* The intangible factor here is the backdrop of Rocky Lombardi returning to his home state for this game. I’m not sure if he grew up a Hawkeyes fan the way Brian Lewerke grew up a Sun Devils fan.
Lewerke and Lombardi came to Michigan State for the same reason - Michigan State was producing NFL quarterbacks at the time, and Mark Dantonio was a great person.
Lewerke doesn’t have great memories from his games against ASU. Lewerke was stronger mentally than you think, but Lombardi appears to be even stronger.
Lombardi has no hatred for Iowa. Iowa wanted him. His motivation won’t be a negative one. It’s a positive one. He’s thrilled to play in front of his parents and family for a change (his mother isn’t able to attend most games because he has other siblings who are active with other sports).
Lombardi is becoming a proven quarterback. He has been accepted as leader. He’s vocal. His disposition, and skill level, is entirely different than the Rocky Lombardi who had uneven performances in 2018 and ’19. He’s hot and he’s loving this gig.
Now he’s going home. You make the call. Does that bring out the best in him, or might it cause him to get off the tracks a bit? You’ll know when I know.
* MSU’s run defense vs Iowa’s run game.
I watched last week’s Iowa vs Northwestern game first. I was astounded by how pass-happy Iowa was. And it was WINDY at Kinnick Stadium that day. I wrote on The Bunker that Iowa had overshot its intentions of morphing into an offense for the 2000s.
Iowa had 51 pass attempts and only 17 tailback runs against Northwestern. And this was a game that Iowa led 17-0! It’s not like they got way behind and had to pass their way back into the game.
Iowa led 17-0 due to a short-field TD drive and a very-short field TD drive.
And they should have led 21-0 if Petras hadn’t hurried a bad throw to a wide open tight end on second-and-goal from the 4-yard line due to some pass rush heat. Easy for me to say, but take the hit, plant your foot a hair longer, and make that lollipop throw to a WIDE OPEN tight end, and it’s 21-0 in the second quarter, and probably game over.
I wrote that Iowa was overly pass-happy and predicted that Iowa would make corrections this week to get back to old school Kirk Ferentz ball.
Then I watched Iowa’s season-opening game against Purdue. Silly me. Iowa had ALREADY played old school Ferentz ball in week one.
Iowa came out at hammered the run with all the old favorites: inside zone, outside zone with two tight ends, fake outside zone counter boot pass to the tight end, and a few powers.
Iowa rushed for 195 yards against Purdue.
Tailback Tyler Goodson rushed for 77 yards on 16 carries and Tailback Mekhi Sargent rushed for 71 on 11 carries.
The third back rushed for 29 yards on four carries.
Solid, solid, solid.
Those little RBs run hard and quick and battle for tough yards and yards after contact.
Solid, solid, solid.
The problem is they fumbled at the 10 and the 30.
Petras threw the ball reasonably well against Purdue: 22 of 39 for 265.
The turnovers and red zone penalties prevented Iowa from generating more than 20 points. It kind of reminded me of some Michigan State losses in the last couple of years.
But the Iowa o-line is pretty good. Not great. The o-tackles aren’t as good as they are supposed to be. The center/right guard double teams on gap plays is above average. I noticed the left guard losing on a key second-and-one play late in the Northwestern game, which led to third-and-five, and an interception.
MSU’s run defense has been pretty good this year. Michigan expected to have a terrific running attack against Michigan State last week. Michigan State contained Michigan to 152 yards rushing (4.5 per carry).
That was a reasonably good day on the ground for Michigan.
In some ways, MSU’s ground defense will have a slightly easier test this week in that Iowa’s offense isn’t likely to be quite as challenging as Michigan’s in terms of variety of formations, changing tempos, the concern of letting speedy guys get loose in space, and a slightly better QB than Petras. Michigan’s pass game balance was better than Iowa’s
That’s why stopping Iowa’s run game is so important. They are going to want to hammer the run, like they almost did against Purdue, like they failed to even try against Northwestern.
Stop the run and make Iowa throw the ball 50 times like they did against Northwestern and Michigan State will be in very good position to win, barring turnovers.
* MSU’s pass defense vs Iowa passing game:
Petras and Milton are somewhat similar. They’re both big, at about 6-foot-5. They both have giant arm strength. They both have problems with accuracy.
Petras’ accuracy problems are worse than Milton’s. When he misses, he misses at 100 mph. Sometimes he’s accurate at 100 mph and his guy can’t catch it.
Neither QB is comfortable sitting in the pocket at making more than one read.
Milton is a much better runner.
Petras was painfully bad on third down in the second half against Purdue and for the entire Northwestern game.
Iowa is without one of its top WRs in Ihmir Smith-Marsette, who was arrested for suspicion of drunk driving. He might be their most explosive WR, their slender fast guy.
But Iowa has a good muscular WR in Brandon Smith, and their top pass catcher from a year ago in possession guy Nico Ragaini.
The tight end, Sam Laporta, is good on 15-yard corner routes, and the intermediate in-routes, and Iowa’s staple counter boot drag. He’s good. He’s an Iowa tight end.
Aside from one or two deep shot attempts to Brandon Smith, Iowa does lose a good bit of its explosiveness without Smith-Marsette.
Iowa’s pass protection was suspect last week at right tackle. MSU’s pass rush was better than expected last week. Petras leaves the pocket too early. He has happy feet, happy arm, happy brain, all that stuff. So a little bit of pass rush could go further against him than most QBs.
Michigan State did a great job of changing coverages last week, and mixing in some pressures. That stuff confounded Milton, but Milton had escapability to make things difficult for MSU’s pressure packages.
Michigan State had a chance of messing with Petras’ head enough to force interceptions, incompletions on third downs, and messy scrambles.
(THE MICRO COMING SOON)
The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State v. Iowa (The Macro)
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - We learned over the years that Mark Dantonio could get the Spartans up to fight, and often beat Michigan, and then reboot the following week to continue to play sound football.
Now, can Mel Tucker do the same?
Tucker orchestrated a phenomenal performance against Michigan, from the outset of practice week up through the bus ride to the stadium - and he had like-minded leaders helping at every turn. It’s largely up to those leaders to make sure the same level of competence, excellence and focus is used this week at Iowa. There’s no way Michigan State will travel with the same level of caged rage that they had last week. That’s impossible. Rivalry-week venom can’t be replicated week after week. But the physicality, precision, intelligence and avoidance of mistakes CAN travel to Iowa, and it must, in order for Michigan State to pass this tough test against a fairly good Iowa team.
Fairly good?
Iowa is 0-2. But the numbers that tell more of the story are the scores:
Northwestern 21, Iowa 20.
Purdue 24, Iowa 20.
Northwestern and Purdue are 2-0. Do you think they’re all that good? They’re okay.
Iowa is 0-2. Roughly the same type of team as those two opponents. And roughly the same as Michigan State … and Rutgers.
At least that’s the opinion on Michigan State for now from my seat, and the seats in Vegas, until Michigan State proves otherwise.
If Michigan State can beat Iowa worse than Northwestern and Purdue did, it won’t mean anything in terms of the transitive property, but it will mean that Michigan State is continuing to trend upward with a 2-1 record.
******
I didn’t think we would have a chance to learn so much about the future of Michigan State football as we might this week. And the same can obviously said about last week.
In early October, I didn’t think the future of the QB position could potentially look as good here on Nov. 6 as it does - if Lombardi can string together another fine performance. And the future of the WR position looks excellent. The future of the RB position is cloudy. Jordon Simmons looks promising, but Elijah Collins has struggled and Anthony Williams has yet to see the field, due to internal accountability missteps.
The offensive line is good in pass protection, but is behind schedule in run blocking. The latter was a bit better last week. It needs to take another step this week.
What might we learn this weekend? That Tucker can lead a team to carry on after a mammoth victory? That Lombardi is an every-week gamer? That the run game is finally coming around? That the Michigan State defensive front seven can contain a decent Iowa running attack?
I thought this fall could devolve into an exhibition season of practice and hopes for progress. Instead, if Michigan State can follow up last week with a road win at Iowa, we might begin to see tangible immediate progress from Tucker and company that I wasn’t expecting and no one was demanding. But here they are, with a chance to march on and continue to surprise.
Beating Iowa wouldn’t be a big surprise. Iowa isn’t great. But harnessing a level of week-to-week competence - especially after the bumbling opener against Rutgers - would help advance Michigan State toward the next chapters of what could become a more rapid rise for Tucker than any of us expected.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
This is a slightly watered down Iowa team. They still look like Iowa, they still attempt Iowa things, and they still do a lot of Iowa things. But they don’t do all of them quite as well as the best Iowa teams, and not as well as last year’s 10-3 Iowa team.
Iowa is very shaky at QB. Talented arm strength, but inconsistent with reads and accuracy and visibly diminishing confidence.
Michigan State has the better QB in this game.
Iowa has two or three good RBs. They are quick, smallish strong guys who battle nicely for tough yards.
The o-line is good, not great. They’re tough with their inside and outside zones and occasional gap schemes - like they’ve been for 20 years. Pass protection is good, not great.
Iowa’s run blocking is better than MSU’s. MSU’s pass protection is a little better, and Michigan State has a QB who trusts pass protection and hangs in the pocket better than Iowa’s QB.
Neither QB is a great runner, but MSU’s Lombardi has a better pocket timer, better initial quickness and better instincts.
Iowa’s run game is better than MSU’s - the combination of better RBs and better run blocking.
Iowa’s tight ends are much better than MSU’s.
The defensive lines are about the same.
MSU’s linebackers are better in run defense than Iowa’s.
MSU’s safeties are better in run defense than Iowa’s.
Iowa’s linebackers and safeties aren’t the fast-flow hammers that they’ve been in the past. They’re late to the ball. Safety run support at Iowa is not as good as it used to be.
Both teams play good, intricate zone coverages. Iowa has had a couple of costly miscommunications in zone coverage this year, including a couple in the red zone. Michigan State has yet to have any major communication/coverage errors in the secondary. Edge Michigan State, for now.
Both teams’ kickers are good, Iowa’s a little better.
**
THE KEYS:
1. Michigan State must stop/contain the run and make shaky QB Spencer Petras beat them.
This is a cliché that can be applied to many games each week. But in this case, Iowa has a pretty good run game. If Iowa is able to lean on that run game, they will have taken a huge step toward victory and Michigan State will have let Petras off the hook.
2. Michigan State can drastically help itself by mustering its best running attack of the season. I’m not predicting that the Spartans will achieve this. But you don’t have to be great on the ground to move the ball against Iowa. Not this year. In past years, good running teams were grounded by Iowa. This year, merely decent run teams CAN run the ball against Iowa.
Is Michigan State ready to be merely decent in the run game?
Michigan State was horrible on the ground against Rutgers.
Michigan State was a bit better last week, rushing for 126 yards against Michigan.
Purdue’s tailback rushed for 129 yards on 21 carries (6.1 per try). He had a 33-yarder to the edge when the Iowa inside linebackers were caught on an inside blitz. Other than that, he was consistently productive. Not great, but productive.
Purdue is a pass-first team. Purdue etched out some work on the ground as an important complement to victory.
Purdue finished with just 104 net yards rushing after sacks were counted. Purdue had only 21 tailback runs in the game - all by Zander Horvath.
Michigan State will run attempt more than 21 tailback runs. If Michigan State can get something close to the 3.9 yards per carry average that Jordon Simmons had, on 28-plus carries, then Michigan State will be a good step toward victory.
Complement that with a couple of jet sweeps and a Lombardi QB draw or two, and just one creaser by a tailback, and you get up to about 160 yards rushing, and then it will be two giant steps toward victory - as long as you avoid turnovers.
3. It’s another time-honored cliché, but the team that can avoid mistakes in this game will win.
Iowa lost to Purdue because Iowa fumbled twice in the red zone and had two costly penalties in the red zone.
Iowa led Purdue 20-14 early in the fourth quarter, but could not finish.
Michigan State lost to Rutgers due to turnovers.
Iowa lost to Northwestern because Iowa tried inexplicably to rely on the pass too much, and QB Petras was terrible in the fourth quarter with two late interceptions and shaky body language.
Both teams have lost games due to mistakes.
Michigan State was a gem last week in terms of avoiding mistakes.
Which team is better at FORCING mistakes? Iowa has been very good at forcing turnovers and interceptions with its deceptive zone defenses over the years. But Iowa’s running backs have had a problem with fumbles, and Iowa’s quarterback has been far more prone to the interception than Lombardi.
Petras has a big arm, too big of an arm at times. Two of his INTs this season have been a case of throwing too hard (and off-target) through the hands of his receivers (too high, or behind them).
So I don’t know how to predict the mistake category. Michigan State was noticeably more mindful of ball security last week, with RBs and WRs having two hands over the ball more often than a week earlier.
THE MATCHUPS
* Michigan State run offense vs Iowa run defense
Michigan State was improved in this area last week, partly do to center Nick Samac playing better than Matt Allen. Allen missed last week with an undisclosed injury. Even if Allen is healthy, I would expect Samac to start and hold the job for the rest of the season.
Offensive guards Blake Bueter and Matt Carrick took their games up a level last week. Their confidence is on an uptick. Maybe they’re ready for another step.
MSU’s run blocking was terrible in week one, functional in week two. Anyone betting on better-than-functional in week three?
Iowa’s run defense is good on the d-line. But the linebackers and safeties have not been good at supporting the run thus far this year. Early in the season, something like that can be improved upon - especially with proven quality-control coaches like Iowa’s DC Phil Parker.
Which are will show more progress? Michigan State in run blocking, or Iowa in back-seven run support? You’ll find out when I do.
Iowa’s d-line is solid-to-good, but I don’t see the bash masters who can completely uproot your interior that Iowa has had at times in the past.
Here’s the weird thing: Northwestern stayed almost entirely on the ground against Iowa. Northwestern rushed the ball 60 times against Iowa. SIXTY! Only 18 pass attempts.
Yet Northwestern rushed for only 143 yards.
I don’t know how that’s possible, even though I watched the game twice.
Northwestern rushed the ball 60 times, for a mere average of 2.3 yards per carry.
Northwestern’s longest run of the day was a 21-yard scramble by QB Payton Ramsey when he caught Iowa in man-to-man (rare for the Hawkeyes).
Northwestern just kept chopping off gains of 4, 5, 1, 2, 0, 3 and moved the chains just enough on three TDs drives to get the win.
Purdue picked up a pair of crucial third-and-twos in the fourth quarter, leading to scoring drives. Ran it up the gut. Iowa wasn’t bad up the middle, but not good enough to get the stop. In Iowa’s better years, you wouldn’t think about running up the middle on a key third-and-two. You would have to find a better avenue.
Iowa doesn’t get creased and gashed for 15-yard run after 15-yard run. It’s an accumulation of 4- and 5-yard gains because the LBs and safeties aren’t up to the Iowa standard. Also, Iowa is playing with its slot LB a step further outside the box than in past years, with this “Cash” concept, which is basically just morphing from their old 4-3 into making the third LB a little more of a nickel back in terms of positioning against 3-WR sets, although he’s still a fairly sizable guy.
The slot LB is further from the box, Iowa's safeties don't support the run on time, and one of the LBs (49) kind of plays like Noah Harvey did against Rutgers. Not that foggy, but he's not an on-time hammer.
Again, you don’t have to be a great running team to move the ball on the ground against Iowa. But you’d better be pretty decent. Michigan State needs to be pretty decent with the ground game to win this game. Not sure if they’re there yet.
Michigan State can help itself with the type of rhythm and balance the Spartans showed last week. Michigan State stayed out of obvious pass situations with a fairly eclectic play selection, especially on the first play of its drives.
How Michigan State can arrive that an optimal level of rhythm and balance in play design and play selection? I don’t have any suggestions in that area, but we’ll know it if we see it. We saw it last week. It was pretty.
* Michigan State pass game vs Iowa pass defense
Iowa held Northwestern’s Payton Ramsey to 11 of 18 passing for 130 yards and one INT.
Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell, a former walk-on, was 31 of 50 for 282 with 3 TDs and 2 INTs.
Rocky Lombardi has thrown for more than 300 yards in the first two weeks.
Michigan State picked on matchup advantages at WR against Michigan CBs last week, especially in the speed department (which was a surprise to me), and also with quick, intricate release moves and double moves by Ricky White.
That stuff won’t be available this week. Not very often anyway.
Iowa will bail into its zone coverages, and disguise things while doing so, and protect over the top with safety help. They won’t bite on double-moves, their CBs aren’t left on an island to bite. Plus, they’ve seen the Ricky White film. They’ll have a better feel for his moves and strengths than Michigan had.
Still, if you catch Iowa in a cover-three blitz (which they will do three or four times a game), the bailing CB basically gets left in man-to-man if you run a deep go route at him. Usually, you want to run a comeback against bailing cover-three. But if Michigan State wants to take a deep shot, it’s do-able against cover-three blitz if you have time to throw a quickish deep fade. Purdue tried it twice last week, once for defensive pass interference, one for offensive pass interference.
But, for the most part, the deep shot won’t be something Michigan State will attempt 14 times like they did last week. Cue the talk show hosts to howl about “Why did Michigan State go away from what worked so great against Michigan???!!”
It’s a different opponent with different coverages.
**
So what’s open against Iowa? You have to be patient against the zone and find the openings such as the cover-two window to the sideline via the smash concept. You can do it a few times a game, but you can’t live on it every single down. The windows change and close, especially if and when Iowa surprises you by dropping eight. When they drop eight, basically no one is open. They do it well, and maybe should consider doing it more often.
There are the shallow crossers if you read man-to-man.
There are the digs and in routes, behind the linebackers and in front of the safeties, if you can stretch the safeties with complementary routes and have time to get to the in-route openings.
Of course Iowa knows that this is where the openings are too, and when Iowa is good, they are planting and leaning toward those openings as you are throwing there, and they arrive with force and/or a hand on the ball for maddening interceptions.
As for the Iowa pass rush, they have a nifty-footed DT in Daviyon Nixon, when he is allowed to disengage and attempt to cross-face and isn’t just two-gapping. For the most part, they get home on sacks via coverage sacks when the QB gets caught staring into the flashlight of Iowa’s deceptively difficult coverages.
* The intangible factor here is the backdrop of Rocky Lombardi returning to his home state for this game. I’m not sure if he grew up a Hawkeyes fan the way Brian Lewerke grew up a Sun Devils fan.
Lewerke and Lombardi came to Michigan State for the same reason - Michigan State was producing NFL quarterbacks at the time, and Mark Dantonio was a great person.
Lewerke doesn’t have great memories from his games against ASU. Lewerke was stronger mentally than you think, but Lombardi appears to be even stronger.
Lombardi has no hatred for Iowa. Iowa wanted him. His motivation won’t be a negative one. It’s a positive one. He’s thrilled to play in front of his parents and family for a change (his mother isn’t able to attend most games because he has other siblings who are active with other sports).
Lombardi is becoming a proven quarterback. He has been accepted as leader. He’s vocal. His disposition, and skill level, is entirely different than the Rocky Lombardi who had uneven performances in 2018 and ’19. He’s hot and he’s loving this gig.
Now he’s going home. You make the call. Does that bring out the best in him, or might it cause him to get off the tracks a bit? You’ll know when I know.
* MSU’s run defense vs Iowa’s run game.
I watched last week’s Iowa vs Northwestern game first. I was astounded by how pass-happy Iowa was. And it was WINDY at Kinnick Stadium that day. I wrote on The Bunker that Iowa had overshot its intentions of morphing into an offense for the 2000s.
Iowa had 51 pass attempts and only 17 tailback runs against Northwestern. And this was a game that Iowa led 17-0! It’s not like they got way behind and had to pass their way back into the game.
Iowa led 17-0 due to a short-field TD drive and a very-short field TD drive.
And they should have led 21-0 if Petras hadn’t hurried a bad throw to a wide open tight end on second-and-goal from the 4-yard line due to some pass rush heat. Easy for me to say, but take the hit, plant your foot a hair longer, and make that lollipop throw to a WIDE OPEN tight end, and it’s 21-0 in the second quarter, and probably game over.
I wrote that Iowa was overly pass-happy and predicted that Iowa would make corrections this week to get back to old school Kirk Ferentz ball.
Then I watched Iowa’s season-opening game against Purdue. Silly me. Iowa had ALREADY played old school Ferentz ball in week one.
Iowa came out at hammered the run with all the old favorites: inside zone, outside zone with two tight ends, fake outside zone counter boot pass to the tight end, and a few powers.
Iowa rushed for 195 yards against Purdue.
Tailback Tyler Goodson rushed for 77 yards on 16 carries and Tailback Mekhi Sargent rushed for 71 on 11 carries.
The third back rushed for 29 yards on four carries.
Solid, solid, solid.
Those little RBs run hard and quick and battle for tough yards and yards after contact.
Solid, solid, solid.
The problem is they fumbled at the 10 and the 30.
Petras threw the ball reasonably well against Purdue: 22 of 39 for 265.
The turnovers and red zone penalties prevented Iowa from generating more than 20 points. It kind of reminded me of some Michigan State losses in the last couple of years.
But the Iowa o-line is pretty good. Not great. The o-tackles aren’t as good as they are supposed to be. The center/right guard double teams on gap plays is above average. I noticed the left guard losing on a key second-and-one play late in the Northwestern game, which led to third-and-five, and an interception.
MSU’s run defense has been pretty good this year. Michigan expected to have a terrific running attack against Michigan State last week. Michigan State contained Michigan to 152 yards rushing (4.5 per carry).
That was a reasonably good day on the ground for Michigan.
In some ways, MSU’s ground defense will have a slightly easier test this week in that Iowa’s offense isn’t likely to be quite as challenging as Michigan’s in terms of variety of formations, changing tempos, the concern of letting speedy guys get loose in space, and a slightly better QB than Petras. Michigan’s pass game balance was better than Iowa’s
That’s why stopping Iowa’s run game is so important. They are going to want to hammer the run, like they almost did against Purdue, like they failed to even try against Northwestern.
Stop the run and make Iowa throw the ball 50 times like they did against Northwestern and Michigan State will be in very good position to win, barring turnovers.
* MSU’s pass defense vs Iowa passing game:
Petras and Milton are somewhat similar. They’re both big, at about 6-foot-5. They both have giant arm strength. They both have problems with accuracy.
Petras’ accuracy problems are worse than Milton’s. When he misses, he misses at 100 mph. Sometimes he’s accurate at 100 mph and his guy can’t catch it.
Neither QB is comfortable sitting in the pocket at making more than one read.
Milton is a much better runner.
Petras was painfully bad on third down in the second half against Purdue and for the entire Northwestern game.
Iowa is without one of its top WRs in Ihmir Smith-Marsette, who was arrested for suspicion of drunk driving. He might be their most explosive WR, their slender fast guy.
But Iowa has a good muscular WR in Brandon Smith, and their top pass catcher from a year ago in possession guy Nico Ragaini.
The tight end, Sam Laporta, is good on 15-yard corner routes, and the intermediate in-routes, and Iowa’s staple counter boot drag. He’s good. He’s an Iowa tight end.
Aside from one or two deep shot attempts to Brandon Smith, Iowa does lose a good bit of its explosiveness without Smith-Marsette.
Iowa’s pass protection was suspect last week at right tackle. MSU’s pass rush was better than expected last week. Petras leaves the pocket too early. He has happy feet, happy arm, happy brain, all that stuff. So a little bit of pass rush could go further against him than most QBs.
Michigan State did a great job of changing coverages last week, and mixing in some pressures. That stuff confounded Milton, but Milton had escapability to make things difficult for MSU’s pressure packages.
Michigan State had a chance of messing with Petras’ head enough to force interceptions, incompletions on third downs, and messy scrambles.
(THE MICRO COMING SOON)
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