PRE-SNAP READ: Michigan State vs Ohio State
By Jim ComparoniPublisher
SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - Ohio State was AWESOME for the first quarter and a half against Wisconsin. They just hot-knifed their way through the Badger defense.
But Ohio State looked human at times last week against Rutgers.
I watched the Rutgers game first. After seeing it, I went so far as to say OSU looked a little overrated, and that a solid team could give them trouble (see the ND game in the opener).
But then that game two weeks ago against Wisconsin was stunningly devastating.
But now we know a little more about Wisconsin, and it’s not positive.
I think OSU might be a tad overrated for now, while superb WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba sits with a hamstring injury. He’s expected to be out again this week, so that he has next week’s bye to max his recovery.
Stroud was human last week. Yet Ohio State beat Rutgers 49-10.
Is Michigan State better than Rutgers? Not on defense.
Rutgers scored a TD after Ohio State fumbled a punt deep in Buckeye territory early in the game. Rutgers drove a couple of times in the first half, put up a little bit of fight. Good for them.
Can Michigan State do the same? Or will Michigan State be down 28-0 midway through the first half like they were last year and like Wisconsin was two weeks ago?
The early Ohio State TKO scenario is always a possibility. Michigan State, for its own sanity and for the defense of all that’s good and proper in the Spartan nation, needs to survive the first quarter without going down 21-0. Is that too much to ask? It might be.
As solidly as Rutgers played on defense against Ohio State (more on that later) by the time OSU took a 21-7 lead early in the second quarter, the Buckeyes had scored TDs on 13 of their last 18 first-half drives. That’s kind of terrifying. And they aren’t at full strength (Njigba was out, and starting RB Treveyon Henderson was out, but will be back this week).
Their schemes are strong, their talent is very good, their coordinators are good, their head coach has good control. I’m going to assume that Ryan Day has been harping on improvement this week after last week’s 49-10 victory over Rutgers was polluted with some minor sputters.
I suspect OSU is competing against itself at this point, rather than an opponent like Michigan State. Michigan State happens to be the bug versus windshield this week. I’m not expecting any history book heroics.
It’s apt to bring up MSU’s propensity for upsetting the Buckeyes.
According to David Harns, Michigan State has beaten Ohio State 10 times when the Buckeyes entered the game ranked in the AP Top 25, including five times when the Buckeyes were ranked in the top five (1972, 1974, 1998, 2013, 2015) and seven in the top 10 (1951, 1971).
Michigan State is at least a 27-point underdog this week. The Spartans were famously a 27-point underdog when they upset No. 1 Ohio State in 1998.
SOME aspects of this year’s team reminds of 1998, like the disturbing, convincing loss on the west coast early in the season (Akili Smith and Oregon destroyed Nick Saban’s team, 48-14 in week two).
However that 1998 team exorcised some demons with emotional, surprising blowout victory over Notre Dame (48-14) a week later.
That team played tough against a good Michigan team in the Big Ten opener (losing 29-17).
But that 1998 team had 16 future NFL players, including first-rounders Julian Peterson and Plaxico Burress. And that team had a couple of one-point losses caused by on-side kick failures.
That team went 6-6, but was better than its record.
This year’s Michigan State team needs to really improve to get to 6-6. This year’s Michigan State team hasn’t had anything close to that blowout victory over Notre Dame, and it has no fluke losses on its ledger like the 1998 team.
The week before the OSU game in 1998, Michigan State blew out Northwestern, 29-5.
If this year’s team is going to turn the corner, we haven’t seen strong signs of it happening yet. But there were some subtle signs last week. MSU’s run game showed progress with its tailbacks averaging 5.0 yards per carry, albeit on limited carries due to penalties and dropped passes which stalled drives.
Michigan State played well on offense in the first half, and played well on defense in the second half. That’s good enough to lose on the road against a respectable Big Ten opponent on the road.
I asked Mel Tucker earlier this week if he saw progress in his defensive unit in terms of players being on the same page, playing a little faster. He said yes. I agreed. Now, they need to play a little smarter BEFORE the snap, close those windows, tackle on the catch like they did against inferior opponents in the first two weeks. That will be harder with these receivers and this QB. But it’s possible Michigan State could make progress in these areas, and be better-equipped for the games ahead, yet lose by three touchdowns.
PATH TO VICTORY?
Is there a path to victory for Michigan State in this game? I’m temped to say no. But after seeing Missouri nearly beat Georgia, and seeing Ohio State struggle against Notre Dame (and for a few minutes against Rutgers, thanks to a turnover), I’ll give them a Dumb & Dumber chance.
I’m more interested in a path to competitiveness, and more signs that progress is being made.
However, the matchups don’t bode well for Michigan State.
Rutgers gave OSU a little bit of trouble, and slowed down QB CJ Stroud, thanks to some well-disguised blitzes and good combinations of man and zone. Michigan State hasn’t demonstrated that it do those things.
And even if you are capable of getting home with some pressures and mixing in decent man-to-man coverage along with some safe zones, that MIGHT enable you to hold Ohio State to 28 points.
From there, is the Michigan State offense capable of scoring more than 17 against Ohio State? Not based on what we’ve seen.
APPLES TO APPLES
* Ohio State is better than Michigan State at QB, RB, TE, OL, WR, DL, LB, DB and in the kicking game.
* OSU has 66 players on their roster who came to Ohio State as four- or five-star recruits. Wisconsin had 20. Michigan State has 22 Rivals.com four-star recruits. (Nine of them are transfers, six of which have become starters at some point: Khris Bogle, Maliq Carr, Ameer Speed, Jalen Berger, Ronald Williams, Chester Kimbrough).
APPLES TO ORANGES
Ohio State’s passing attack, when healthy, is arguably the best in the country. MSU’s pass defense has been among the worst in the country for the last two years. Not good.
Can Michigan State contain the OSU running attack? Well, if the Spartans play with a single safety deep and commit to stopping the run at pre-snap, they probably COULD, but Ohio State would just opt for the passing attack like Minnesota did, but with more devastating results.
Can Michigan State move the ball against Ohio State? Based on what we saw in the first half last week, there is hope.
Ohio State has a new defensive coordinator. They are better organized this year and very multiple on defense. However, I’m not seeing standout killer individual disrupters on their defense. They just have a bunch of guys playing quick, correct, rallying to the ball with an ever-changing defense.
Wisconsin put up points against OSU in the second half against back-ups.
If Michigan State is able to drive a little bit and score a couple of touchdowns against Ohio State’s starters, then MSU’s chances of beating Wisconsin in eight days might go up a notch. That’s the type of thing I’ll be looking for.
ONE THING TO REMEMBER
Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonard is considered one of the best in the business. He turned down the Packers DC job in order to stay in Madison. He is now the Badgers’ interim head coach and apparently is going to get a long look to become the full-time head coach.
Leonard is good.
Just remember that.
But his zone defenses were absolutely obliterated by this Ohio State team two weeks ago.
So even a good, up-and-coming, highly-respected DC like Leonard can see his scheme get destroyed by Ohio State.
So if the same happens to Michigan State, realize that misery loves company. And Jim Leonard is in your company. If Michigan State gets ripped on defense, that won’t be confirmation that Michigan State has the worst defense in American, it will just be further confirmation that Michigan State is part of American. And other than a few exceptions, most of America would be ripped by this OSU offense.
PATH TO COMPETITIVENESS?
In studying OSU over the last two games, it seems to me that quality linebacker pass defense is an underrated thing that’s needed in order to hang with OSU.
You need LBs that have great anticipation at pre-snap, making quick and correct initial steps, absolutely no false steps. The smarts to know which windows to get to, and the athleticism to get there and make a play.
Believe it or not, Nebraska’s linebackers were very good at this last year vs OSU and that was one reason why they were down just 23-17 in the fourth quarter (before losing 26-17).
Most teams like to try to slow down OSU with zone coverages. Stroud is very good at throwing with accuracy and touch over the middle, behind linebacker, in zone defense. If your linebackers are as good as Iowa’s in their best year, then you are a step closer to hanging with OSU.
But MSU’s linebacker coverage is not great. At times it’s substandard. It was a little better last week. It was horrid against Washington.
TRYING TO CONTAIN THE OSU OFFENSE
* Wisconsin DC Jim Leonard went with two deep safeties for the vast majority of the early snaps. He wanted to help his CBs in coverage. That left UW light in the box against the run and that was a trade he was willing to make.
Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano operated with the same mindset. He said after the game he wanted to stop the pass first.
Both coaches opted to try to minimize the quick-strike poison and were willing to take the ground game poison.
As it turned out, Wisconsin wasn’t successful stopping either. But Rutgers was successful in causing CJ Stroud to have his least-good game of the year and one of the worst in his two years as a starter.
(“least-good.” Yes that’s my descriptor. I can’t say Stroud had a bad game against Rutgers, or even a mediocre game. He had a good game. But him, it was mediocre. So I’ll call it “least-good.” More on that later).
“The thing that had me the most fearful was their passing game,” Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano said afterward. “So we were going to try to make sure that that didn’t get out of hand. That’s how a game gets out of hand, and you’ve seen it happen to many people. They are just explosive in the throw game. They have a Heisman candidate at quarterback and a deep stable of receivers. It’s tough.”
Stroud, who threw for 573 yards and six TDs in the Rose Bowl last year, was held to just 13 of 22 passing against Rutgers for 154 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.
Stroud averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt and had a QB rating of 78.0 in the game. He played all but six snaps in the game.
“I thought all in all, we did a pretty good job (against the pass),” Schiano said. “I thought we got to him a little bit. Getting ready for them, when you watch their game film, it looked like 7-on-7 sometimes. No one was touching him. It’s different playing quarterback when you’re not touched. Our rush got to him at times. At times it didn’t. That’s a very good offensive line.
“I think some of our guys did some good things in coverage.
“You kind of have to pick. When you dedicate resources to stop one, you try to cover up the other. The big run was a dagger for us.”
WHAT RUTGERS DID
A lot of teams, including Michigan State, will be researching what Rutgers did and trying to borrow some of the elements.
* Rutgers blitzed 56.5 percent of the time. Stroud was 8-of-12 on those plays for 90 yards, 1 TD (NFL pass rating of 116.7).
When Rutgers did not blitz, Stroud was 5-of-10 for 64 yards with 1 TD and INT (NFL passer rating of 64.2).
So Rutgers had a measure of success each way. Keeping him off-balance with a little bit of both was probably a goof formula.
* In 23 dropbacks, Stroud was “kept clean” by his pass protection 17 times (74 percent). He was under pressure six times (26 percent of the time).
He was 0-for-5 with one scramble when “under pressure,” according to Pro Football Focus (NFL pass rating of 39.6. I think they give you a 39.6 on a play if you merely receive the snap).
When “kept clean,” he was 13-of-17 for 154 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT (NFL pass rating of 118.3).
So, he’s human. Like most QBs who have ever walked the Earth, if you get pressure on him, his productivity drops off.
When kept clean, his passes came out on average in 2.1 seconds. When under pressure, he held it longer and the pass came out in 3.62 seconds.
Interestingly, he got rid of the ball quicker when blitzed (2.3 seconds compared to 2.8 when not blitzed). So he usually had an idea where to go with his hot reads when blitzed.
He CAN run. His first TD as a college player came on a 48-yard zone read keeper in mop up time against Michigan State in 2020. But he has only nine rushing attempts this year. They don’t want to subject him to contact.
* Rutgers had seven pressures (including one sack, and five QB hits).
(Last week, Michigan State had nine total pressures against Maryland with one sack, one QB hit and seven hurries). But that was against a team that dropped back to pass 43 times. So Michigan State got pressure on the QB only 16 percent of the time last week.
Michigan State blitzed Maryland 23 percent of the time. Michigan State blitzed Washington 15 percent of the time. Would Michigan State be willing to ramp up its blitz rate near the 56 percent of Rutgers?
Michigan State can try. I wouldn’t be surprised if they blitzed a little more. But, sadly, Michigan State doesn’t have the man-to-man coverage skills that Rutgers possesses.
So, here’s the trick: Can you put pressure on him with a standard four man rush? Michigan State has become mediocre at applying pressure with a standard four. So that part of the formula doesn’t seem to exist for Michigan State, either.
And Ohio State’s pass protection is excellent.
A closer look at a sequence midway through the 2Q when Rutgers had some success with the blitz:
1-10 at -45: Rutgers nickel back blitzed from the slot. Stroud looked deep vs cover-three, was pressured out of the pocket, checked down to the TE at the sideline for 5 yards. (Ruled incomplete because TE had stepped out of bounds prior to the catch).
(So here was Rutgers playing zone behind a blitz. That’s an option. That was Narduzzi’s favorite, to the point of becoming predictable.)
2-10 at -45: Rutgers blitzed the nickel from the slot and rotated into cover-one/man-to-man. Stroud threw the 5-yard angle route to the TE, who has split out. Pass was knocked away from an INC.
3-10 at -45: Rutgers showed press. Bailed into off man-to-man. Timed the bail well. (That’s a key. Don’t telegraph what you’re doing. Disguise it. Michigan State has not been good at disguising, although last week was a little better than the Minnesota game, during which disguising coverages was non-existent).
Rutgers brought a six man rush, both LBs. Stroud was hit while throwing. Delivered a catchable ball to WR Emeka Egbuka, but he bobbled it and dropped it.
Key Note: Egbuka was the No. 3 receiver on this route (the inner most of three receivers to one side). Egbuka was covered by Rutgers’ slot CB, Christian Braswell, a transfer from Temple, a non-starter who played 48 decent snaps in this game.
Who is MSU’s first CB off the bench? Ronald Williams. Do Williams, Ameer Speed and Charles Brantley see the field at the same time? Not that I can recall, this year.
The “third CB” has been Chester Kimbrough as the nickel back (until halftime of the Washington game, and we haven’t seen him since).
Then it was Justin White for the Minnesota game.
Last week, it was Angelo Grose. Grose moved from safety, where he struggled, to nickel back. At nickel, he essentially can serve as the third CB, although he doesn’t have CB skills.
With Grose at nickel, true freshman Jaden Mangham got his first start at safety.
So Michigan State continues to be in a state of flux in the secondary.
Can Grose cover an Ohio State No. 3 WR in man-to-man? No. If OSU sees him in man-to-man, will they attack him? Yes. And if they don’t attack him, will they attack Ameer Speed on double moves to the inside? Yes.
Can Michigan State cover it? Not consistently.
Can Justin White? I don’t know, maybe. His body of work is still limited.
Can Chester Kimbrough? Well, they seem to have given up on him.
Who is the next freshman off the bench? I hear good things about Caleb Coley Maybe we’ll see him at some point soon.
So that’s where Michigan State is in this card game. They don’t have any bowers.
**
On Rutgers’ next possession, beginning near midfield after an exchange of punts, Rutgers went to the blitz again:
1-10 +25: Rutgers blitzed the nickel from the slot. Stroud threw INC on a deep fade to WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to the end zone vs press. He had Emeka open on a dig with no safety help but didn’t go to him. (Maybe the blitz hurried his progression and caused him to fail to see the open WR. One of Stroud’s strengths is his ability to calmly know where to go with the ball. Against the blitz on this occasion, he didn’t see the open man in an area of the field, over the middle, which is usually an area of accuracy for him).
2-10 +25: Rutgers blitzed the slot nickel again, disguised it decently well. OSU threw a sight adjust bubble to 4 Julian Fleming to the short side. Gain of 6.
(Then Rutgers went with cover-one press with a LB lurking as a robber in the middle). Stroud completed a short curl to Harrison for six yards. First down.
OSU eventually went on to score on this drive, converting a fourth-and-goal.
But the flurry of blitzes slowed him down a bit.
WHAT ELSE DID RUTGERS DO?
* Rutgers did a lot of post-snap bailing at CB, into zone. OSU threw to the short flat a few times to take advantage, in addition to running the ball.
* Rutgers didn’t go to the blitzes early in the game. They were mixed in, in the second quarter, and with some success.
On the opening drive, Rutgers went with two deep safeties, off coverage on the opening drive, but gave up some creases on the ground.
* Second drive Rutgers, on third-and-eight, went with two deep cover-two zone.
But instead of two safeties being deep, it was one safety and one cornerback who were deep. The other safety went to the flat in “sky” coverage. It’s a tricky inversion. You don’t see teams do it very often. Good same-pageness by Rutgers to attempt it and deploy it. Rutgers rushed five but didn’t get pressure. Stroud had time, made one read and passed to WR Egbuka on a sit-down hook at 12 yards, then he turned in yards after catch for a total gain of 27.
Good concept by Rutgers, but good protection, good route, good throw, good RAC by OSU and it’s a gain of 27.
I’m not sure Michigan State is advanced enough in its coverages to throw in an “exotic” like this. Michigan State is trying to keep it simple, get on the same page and start to play faster and smarter on defense.
* 1-10 +35: show two deep, late safety blitz, man-to-man, six man rush, seventh man adds to the rush when the RB doesn’t come out in the route. Stroud hurried a bit, inaccurate out route for Harrison at the flag.
* 2-10: cover four zone. Stroud hits Egbuka on a stop-and-go route over the middle. Gain of 19. Good reading of coverage by Egbuka. Stroud on the same page with him, on time with the ball.
This is the type of thing we’re likely to see from Michigan State i this game. Conservative zone, Ohio State hits an intermediate chunk play. Rinse and repeat.
* On a first-and-15 on the first play of the 2Q, Rutgers tipped off what looked like the makings of a nickel blitz from the slot.
OSU checked off and called an audible.
So Rutgers changed its defense and played cover-six zone.
(Stroud hurried an incompletion on a bubble screen to the other side).
Question: Is Michigan State far enough along in its defensive maturity to check out of a blitz and change the defense when a blitz has been detected? I would hope so, but not according to the Minnesota game and I can’t remember seeing it last week (sorry if that seems unscientific but I didn’t happen to notice it, or look for it specifically when charting). We’ll see if they are any further along this week, if the situation arises.
* Rutgers was usually in off cover-four at pre-snap, and could morph into other stuff from there.
Playing off zone doesn’t guarantee you’ll keep a lid on a passing attack, of course. OSU can and will get chunks on digs over the middle behind the LBs, and will test the deep middle with the post if they can read the zone too early, or even if they read it later. But your odds of containing them with zone defense increases if you can disguise it a bit, mix in some man, mix in some blitzes. I’m not sure Michigan State can mix in anything without spilling it all over the floor. They’re working on it. I’ll look for progress.
Rutgers wasn’t perfect in pass defense. OSU took a 21-7 lead early in the 2Q on a post route for a 36-yard TD.
Rutgers showed off cover-four zone at pre-snap. Rutgers morphed into man-to-man with LBs dropping into zone coverage.
The Rutgers CB got beat on the deep post. He had no safety help because the safety to his inside chased the TE to the flat in man to man.
So that was a bad tradeoff for Rutgers to put the LBs in zone and the safeties in man-to-man.
Usually, the safeties will be in deep zone and the LBs will be in man-to-man on a TE underneath.
Rutgers kind of out-inverted themselves on that one, but hey they were trying to be multiple. However they left their CB open to the one thing they wanted to guard against - the deep shot explosive.
OHIO STATE OFFENSE
* Scheme-wise, they are more committed to physical zone ground game than in the past. That area of their team looks good and improved.
I just spent a long time talking about the slim chances of stopping their passing attack.
But their running game is very good. Better than last year.
Of OSU’s first 29 plays against Rutgers, 15 were running plays. Rutgers tried to take away the pass. OSU went to the run.
* In addition to conventional dropback passing stuff, OSU showed against Wisconsin that they will hit you with misdirection sneak route to the TE in the red zone for a TD.
The opening play of their third drive was an RPO bubble screen.
They finished that drive with an under center, I-formation, play action, counter boot, sneak route, 2-yard TD pass to the wide open tight end, Stover.
So they eat off a lot of different plates.
* It’s a pick-your-poison situation. Most agree that the best way to try to keep a lid on their pass offense is to help your cornerbacks with two deep safeties. But if you do that, you’re light in the box to stop the run.
Some teams will be talented enough at CB to be fine with one deep safety against Ohio State. Michigan might be in that category. But Michigan State is not.
If you go with two deep safeties, OSU can load up with a TE and use six blockers to block your six box defenders.
That TE, No. 8, Stover, is versatile. He can make nice body-control plays as a receiver when splitting out into the slot. Or he can motion in, become attached to the TE, and double-team your edge at the point of attack.
They’ve got all the pieces.
If you keep two safeties deep and OSU gets you in a six vs six situation in the box, chances are, these athletic OSU blockers will get a hat on a hat, and one of your safeties will have to come from deep pass support to stop the run, and it’s a gain of at least four, IF you tackle well. Or maybe you can hold it to a gain of three IF one of your LBs or d-linemen defeat a block. That’s a hard ask. That’s why they move the chains.
THE GOOD NEWS
As good as OSU is with the passing attack, they aren’t as good as they were last year when they had first-round draft pick and legit top fuel dragsters Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave to go with Njigba.
I felt Stroud missed those three guys last week against Rutgers.
His receivers are good this year. They were five-stars. But they aren’t the guys he had last year.
In the process, OSU is showing it can be patient on offense and take what the defense gives. Michigan State will probably offer that bet as well.
MORE ON THE OSU OFFENSE
* OSU scored on its first four drives against Wisconsin and first three against Rutgers (aside from fumbling a punt).
* They began the game last week against Rutgers with 12 rushes and 13 passes.
- Offense didn’t look good in the final minutes of the 2H against Rutgers in the red zone. Had first-and-10 at the +14 and Stroud didn’t see TE 88 wide open up the seam into the end zone, instead threw to a covered receiver along the right sideline but drew a pass interference flag.
Then two run plays for RB Miyan Williams (inside zone left, gain of 2) and inside zone right (loss of 1).
Then on third-and-goal from the 3, OSU went with an empty formation. Stroud found no one open, scrambled to the sideline for a loss of 12. But Rutgers was flagged for defensive holding.
New set of downs. But OSU continued to sputter.
So on first down, Stroud dropped back, scrambled out of bounds for a gain of 1.
On second down, RB Williams tried the right side on an outside zone for a gain of 1 to the 1-yard line.
On third-and-goal, Stroud’s QB sneak was stopped for no gain.
On fourth-and-goal, Williams scored on an outside zone to the right.
It took Ohio State seven snaps and two time outs to travel the final three yards of that drive. They looked human.
Then on OSU’s first drive of the second half, Stroud forced a pass over the middle to Egbuka on a post into triple coverage. Terrible decision.
* But OSU averaged 10 yards per play on its first four possessions against Wisconsin.
Ryan Day is 25-1 in Big Ten games
INSIDE OHIO STATE’S PERSONNEL
QB CJ STROUD (6-3, 218, 3rd year, Inland Empire, Calif.)
* Four-star, Top 100 recruit, ranked No. 51 by Rivals.com and No. 3 at the QB position.
* Some of you might remember that MSu was among the early schools on him. Michigan State was right in the mix early on, but then Ohio State and heavyweights moved in and Michigan State was shuffled to the back.
* He processes things quickly and calmly, better than Justin Fields.
* He began the Rutgers game 8-14 for 116 yards through the first quarter and a half
- Underthrew Harrison on a deep 25-yard fade to the end zone in the second quarter last week.
* In a 77-21 victory over Toledo, he was 22 of 27 for 367 yards.
* Stroud says he knows teams are going to sit back in zone coverages but he says OSU still feels like they can find big chunk plays in the openings and seams.
- INT early in the 2H against Rutgers.
- INT late in the 1H against Wisconsin. Missed high on a pass to the short side. Intercepted by the centerfield safety over the top.
WHERE STROUD IS GOOD
* If it’s zone coverage, he has very good touch throwing over the middle, over your linebackers and away from wherever the safeties are. Whether it’s a 15-yard over route or a 20-yard shot to the seam, he can feather those pretty well - and he’s throwing to guys who do a good job getting separation, and he has good protection. And his running game is strong enough that he is rarely in a negative down and distance situation.
And head coach Ryan Day is very good at creating route combinations and matchups to amplify OSU’s talent.
vs Wisconsin:
+ vs cover 3 zone on opening drive, hit TE Stover on an over route for 32 yards. Nice touch, nice read, nice ball.
* Vs 3 deep zone, TE in motion, no one goes with him, finds Egbuka as the No. 3 WR on an over route.
That’s a very good No. 3 receiver, blazing through open areas of the zone, open for a 32-yard gain to the 3-yard line. Michigan State will have trouble with this type of thing as well.
RB TREVEYON HENDERSON (5-10, 214, 2nd, Hopewell, Va.)
* Was a four-star, Top 100 recruit, ranked No. 81, and the No. 4 RB.
* Was a gametime decision not to play vs Rutgers, something that apparently came up during pre-game. He is expected to play this weekend.
* 121 yards on 21 carries against Wisconsin. That is the most carries he has had in a game since early November of last year against Nebraska.
* Just a quality, future NFL RB. In addition to being quick, physical and talented, he also does a good job setting up his blocks and being patient on their zone runs.
* And then he lowers his shoulder to dish out a blow when contact comes.
RB 3 MIYAN WILLIAMS (5-9, 225, 3rd, Cincinnati Winton Woods)
* 5.6 three star recruit, ranked No. 31 in Ohio.
* He’s hard to tackle. You are worried about their pass game, so you can’t try to outnumber their blockers in the run game. So you have to beat blocks.
But their blockers are very good. So on the odd opportunity that they are giving you a break and NOT passing the ball, and you happen to defeat a block and get a defender to Williams at the line of scrimmage for what you think is going to be a tackle for little or not gain. But wait, after all that, this guy is hard to tackle.
So he busts two tackles and gains 15 on you, like he did in the red zone against Wisconsin.
Wisconsin was ready to tap out 5 minutes in the second quarter. Michigan State knows what that’s like.
* He scored two TDs against Wisconsin.
+ 1-play, 70-yard TD drive on Williams’ 70-yard TD run against Rutgers. Blew the game open early in the third quarter. It was an inside zone.
* 101 yards on 11 carries against Wisconsin
WIDE RECEIVERS
* They are all good blockers, which adds to the difficulty of stopping the run on the perimeter.
* These guys are good, but not as good as last year (yet).
WR 11 JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA (6-1, 200, 3rd, Rockwall, Texas)
* Was a 6.1 five-star, ranked No. 20 in the nation.
* Has been out with a hamstring injury. Ohio State insiders suspect he will sit out this game in order to maximize next week’s bye week and build toward the money games later in the season.
WR MARVIN HARRISON JR. (6-4, 205, 2nd, Philadelphia)
* Top 100 four-star, ranked No. 87 in the nation.
* 24 catches with a long of 45, averaging 16.9 yards per catch. 6 TDs.
* 81 yards receiving per game.
* I read that he wore an Apple watch and Louis Vuitton cleats during the Wisconsin game. I’m not sure what to make of that, but if OSU was angry at itself for getting soft last year, I don’t think those products scream grittiness.
WR 4 JULIAN FLEMING (6-2, 205, Jr., Catawissa, Pa.)
* 6.1, five-star recruit, ranked No. 14 in the nation.
* Dealt with injuries earlier in his career.
* Four TDs in the last three games.
* 11 catches on the year with a long of 36, 12.8 per catch. 4 TDs.
* 47 yards receiving per game.
* 12 catches last year for 86 yards.
* 36-yard TD vs Rutgers on a post vs MOFO (middle of the field open zone) on 2-15
* Had four catches for 67 yards against Wisconsin.
* Is physical after the catch, not easy to tackle. Plowed through a tackle for his TD against Wisconsin.
WR 2 EMEKA EGBUKA (6-1, 205, 2nd, Steilacoom, Wash.)
* 6.1 five-star recruit ranked No 11 in the country.
* 30 catches, 5 TDs, 17.1 yards per catch, 102.4 yards receiving per game.
* Failed to haul in a third down pass in the 2Q last week on a pass thrown slightly behind him.
* Had a team high six catches for 118 yards and two TDs against Wisconsin.
TE 8 CADE STOVER (6-4, 255, 4th, Mansfield, Ohio)
* Top 100 four star recruit, ranked No. 96 overall in the nation and the No. 6 linebacker.
* Had three catches against Akron.
* Had four catches for 51 yards with 2 TDs against Wisconsin.
* 32-yard catch an on over route vs zone on opening drive vs Wisconsin.
* 8-yard TD against Wisconsin on a sprint out left, sneak route back to the right. TE blocked for a few beats and then released back out the other way on a sneak route, beating Wisconsin with a play Wisconsin used to run every week a few years ago.
* Blocks well when spaced out into the slot.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Solid group, more physical than last year, determined to have a better running attack this year. Mostly zone blocking. Nothing fancy.
* I don’t see any slippage or leaks from this group. They get on you, get into you. Pass pro is good.
* OSU had more than 100 yards rushing BEFORE contact IN THE FIRST HALF against Wisconsin.
EXAMPLE:
Wisconsin tried an overload blitz on a third-and-four late in the 1Q. Wisconsin came with five rushers, and tried to amplify the effect by overloading four to one side.
UW telegraphed it a little too much and OSU slid the protection to that side at the snap. Stroud had time to throw to Marvin Harrison Jr., who beat press coverage for a hot route slant for about 15 yards. That was OSU’s first third down situation of the game.
77 LT PARIS JOHNSON (6-6, 310, 3rd, Cincinnati Princeton)
* Five-star, ranked No. 21 in the nation, No. 3 OT.
* Second team All-Big Ten last year.
74 LG DONOVAN JACKSON (6-4, 300, 2nd, Bellaire, Texas)
* Five-star, ranked No. 13 in the nation, No. 1 OT.
+ Drove UW’s 315-pound Keeanu Benton off the ball on a first-and-goal at the 2-yard line for a TD to finish the opening drive.
53 C LUKE WYPLER (6-3, 300, 3rd, Montvale, NJ)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 163 in the nation, No. 4 in New Jersey, No. 2 OG.
* Second-year starter.
55 RG MATTHEW JONES (6-4, 315, Gr., Brooklyn, NY)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 160 in the nation.
* Second-year starter, HM All-Big Ten last year.
79 DAWAND JONES (6-8, 359, 4th, Indianapolis Ben Davis)
* Was a 5.6 three-star, ranked No. 12 in Indiana. Also visited Penn State and USC.
* Huge dude who has the quickness to get out to the LB level AND heat-seek those linebackers with pretty good footwork.
* Has 14 career starts.
* Third-team All-Big Ten by the coaches last year.
OHIO STATE DEFENSE
* They’re fast, they’re extremely multiple, they rally to the ball well, quickly and on the same page, and tackle well. I don’t see individuals who are absolutely dominating.
* OSU allowed at least one pass play of 50 yards or more in each of their first three games. I’m not sure what that was all about. They’ve been pretty solid the last two weeks.
THE JIM KNOWLES DEFENSE
* OSU axed Kerry Coombs as defensive coordinator last September, carrying out a prophecy I laid down 12 months earlier.
During the off-season, Ohio State poached defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State for $1.9 million per year.
The 57-year-old Knowles has been a recent riser as a coaching success story.
He played at Cornell, then coached at Cornell for eight years, then was DL coach and DC at Western Michigan from 1997 to 2002 under Gary Darnell.
Then he left WMU to be LBs coach for one year at Ole Miss in 2003.
Then he became head coach at Cornell from 2004 to 2009. He went 26-34 at Cornell before, I assume, being fired.
Then he was defensive coordinator at Duke from 2010 to 2017.
Not exactly the cradle of coaches.
Then Oklahoma State head coach hired him as defensive coordinator in 2018. I’m not sure what Gundy saw. Duke was playing over its head from 2013 to 2017, going 10-4, 9-4, 8-5, 4-8 and 7-6 during that span. But Gundy saw something.
Oklahoma State took a dive in 2018 to a 7-6 record, then went 8-5 and then 8-3 during the COVID year. Then last year, Oklahoma State emerged with a 12-2 record and ranked No. 3 in the country in total defense, No. 8 in scoring defense.
Last year, Oklahoma State ranked in the top-five in the FBS in sacks (No. 1), tackles for loss (No. 2), third-down defense (No. 2), total defense (No. 5) and rushing defense (No. 5). They led the Big 12 in each of those categories.
The 2021 numbers continued a four-year run of improvement that saw scoring defense improve from 32.5 points per game in 2018 to 26.8 and 23.5 points per game in 2019 and 2020, respectively, to 18.1 (ninth nationally) this past season.
* They are extremely multiple on defense, and seem to be able to handle the volume. They don’t play slow. I don’t see confusion or busts or gap errors despite how multiple they are. Last year, they had gap errors too often.
Knowles has installed a lot, and I don’t see much (any) slippage.
WHAT’S UNIQUE
Their d-line alignments change with seemingly every play.
* Sometimes they go with four down linemen. The DTs might be over the inside shoulder of the tackles in 4i alignments, but then they’ll slant to other techniques at the snap.
What they show at pre-snap isn’t necessarily where they will be at post-snap. That’s common for good coverages. That’s not all that common for college defensive fronts.
Some the DTs line up over each shoulder of the center as one techniques, then one of them will remain a one tech while the other slants to a three.
* They contained the Wisconsin run without selling out to do so. They played with the standard number in the box and sometimes were out-numbered in the box and still contained it.
* The played a one-gapping 40 front for most of the first quarter against Wisconsin. But OSU was mostly a two-gapping front against Rutgers.
OSU began UW’s third possession with a 30 front. On second-and-long, they rushed three, dropped eight, played cover four.
LB Eisenberg dropped to the shallow middle, read the QB, then green-dogged, meaning he decided to come with a delayed blitz after reading that the RB was staying in for pass protection. Eisenberg collected the sack after QB Mertz feebly decided to tuck and run.
They showed Mertz an array of puzzles and he didn’t do well.
* Knowles is encouraging his defensive players to play fast, even if they make mistakes. He wants them to push the envelope. He says “Saturdays are on me,” meaning that if they make a mistake in the game, it’s the coach’s fault.
I’ve never heard of a coach taking this approach. For a defense that was so error-prone in recent years, that seems like a dangerous approach, but he obviously is confident that his teaching has solidified a good base, and now he wants guys like Eisenberg pulling the pin when they see a chance. Usually, you don’t want defensive players playing hero ball and chasing a stick like an untrained dog. But it sounds like Knowles wants more of it.
* First play of UW’s second drive, OSU was in an under 4-2, one-gapping against UW’s pro set personnel.
Under 4-2 with one-gapping is almost old Dantonio Ohio State stuff from 2002, but the seventh man in the box was 195-pound safety McCalister, in the general area of where a 230-pound Sam linebacker used to play in the old days. But the 230-pound Sam linebacker in a 4-3 is pretty much extinct these days, unless he can run like those guys at Georgia or Bama.
Ohio State stopped the strong-side, pin-and-pull counter on this play for a loss of 3. Tackle by MLB Eichenberg.
OSU beat a seven-blocker play without needing help from a safety. Eichenberg had the outside shoulder gap of the pulling center and flowed with it, saw the ball carrier, and scraped toward him to make the play.
The Wisconsin fullback, on the chalkboard, was supposed to block the first OSU jersey he saw, but he never saw Eichenberg. If the FB had seen him and managed to block him, THEN the RB turns the corner, benefits from 7 hats on 7 defenders and is out to the safety level.
But he never got there. OSU played fast with the one-gapping system, and Eichenberg pulled the pin, shot the gap and made the play.
There is no hesitation with these guys, and they’re talented.
(Okay, I have to admit a problem with lingo. A pin-and-pull is a gap scheme running play. That’s different than a linebacker “pulling the pin” and going. I probably need to get rid of that as a linebacker descriptor. That’s lingo Mike Tressel used to use. “Our guy needs to read it, get in position to defeat a block, and then when he knows what he’s seeing, pull the pin and go blow it up.” Pulling the pin as in pulling the pin of a grenade. That’s a great way to describe how a LB needs to play. My guy VanSumeren has been a beat slow in pulling the pin this year. Pulling the pin. Great descriptor. HOWEVER, a pin-and-pull is also a common blocking scheme, with the play-side guard pinning a defender inside while the center pulls around him. So I guess I need to retire that old Tressel descriptor, unless you the reader can discern the difference).
Anyway, Ohio State can play aggressive, fast-flowing, one-gap Dantonio defense on one play, and then play a two-gapping wide 30, 3-2-6 on the next. And I haven’t spotted any indecision or assignment breakdowns. This is light years ahead of the romper room failures they made at times last year under Coombs.
* Knowles says his defense is “safety driven.” But his key safety, No. 15 Tanner McCalister who is listed as a nickel, played only 10 snaps last week after getting his bell rung. I’m kind of assuming he will be back for this game. Knowles says he is their most knowledgeable guy, having come with him from Oklahoma State.
* Wisconsin scored 14 of its 21 points and 200 of its 296 yards in the second half, mostly against second stringers.
* Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen had 36 yards on eight attempts through the first half, and finished with 165 yards on 23 carries. He had a 75-yarder against the OSU second string in the second half.
I’ve said UW’s o-line is the worst I’ve seen at UW since 1992. They struggled against Illinois. They weren’t bad against OSU.
* OSU held Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz to 11 of 20 for 94 yards, marking the second time Mertz finished under 100 yards passing in three years as a starter. Mertz was horrible.
* OSU had a shortage of CBs against Wisconsin, two weeks ago. OSU had only three healthy scholarship CBs in that game.
Denzel Burke was out and Cameron Brown was out.
Muskegon native Cameron Martinez was cross-trained at CB and safety during fall camp and is supposed to be McCalister’s replacement, but he was unhealthy and couldn’t replace McCalister. So a true freshman did it, and seemed fine.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* Solid across the board. I haven’t looked at their NFL Draft stock, but I’m not seeing any of the dominators that they usually have here.
Maybe Sawyer and Tuimoloau will be dominators some day, but I don’t see it yet.
44 DE JT TUIMOLOAU (6-4, 270, 2nd, Edgewood, Wash.)
* Five-star recruit, ranked No. 7 in the nation.
* Leads the team with three QB hurries.
* Played 339 snaps last year, 4.5 TFLs.
DE 9 Zach Harrison (6-6, 272, 4th, Lewis Center, Ohio)
* Five-star recruit, ranked No. 23 in the nation.
* Was third-team All-Big Ten by coaches last year.
* Second-team All-Big Ten by coaches in 2020.
* Harrison started last week but Tuimololau played more snaps. They split time evenly against Wisconsin. Nice luxury when you can have a pair of five star recruits staying fresh, playing 50 pct of the snaps each week.
DE 33 JACK SAWYER (6-4, 267, 2nd, Pickerington North)
* Five-star recruit, ranked No. 12 in the nation.
* Had 13 tackles last year.
* They call his position a Jack, as in a Jack linebacker. But make no mistake, he’s a stand-up defensive end.
- Allowed 3 yards of movement against a double team last week early in the 2H, for a gain of 8 on an nside zone.
NT 6 TARON VINCENT (6-2, 300, 5th, Baltimore)
* 6.0 four-star recruit, ranked No. 40 in the nation.
* Second-year starter.
* He’s okay. When he two-gaps, it’s not like he destroys people.
DT 91 Tyleik Williams (6-3, 319, Manassas, Va., 2nd) went down with what appeared to be a lower body injury last week.
DT 51 MIKE HALL (6-2, 290, 2nd, Streetsboro, Ohio)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 4 in Ohio and No. 91 in the nation.
* Co-leader in TFLs this year with 5.0.
* Had two TFLs and a sack against Notre Dame.
* Redshirted last year.
LINEBACKERS
* OSU people feel they are improved here. Eichenberg has been playing fast and instinctive. Chambers is a former RB who moves well.
LB TOMMY EICHENBERG (6-2, 235, 4th, Cleveland St. Ignatius)
* Was a Top 250 four-star recruit, ranked No. 213 in the nation and No. 6 in Ohio.
* 14 tackles with 2 TFLs against Wisconsin.
* Quick feet in getting downhill WHILE making reads. Quick, good feet, makes the read, pulls the pin and finishes the tackle.
LB STEEL CHAMBERS (6-1, 232, 4th, Roswell, Ga.)
* Quick first step when pursuing the alley.
* Former RB, moved to LB after the 2020 season.
* As a side note, former Michigan State recruiting target Palaie Goateote, the brother of Michigan State’s Ma’a Gaoteote, has played only one snap this season.
SECONDARY
* They have been hit by injuries but have been soldiering through it. OSU’s top four safeties have missed at least one game due to injury this year. The three starting safeties (including the nickel, who is considered a safety) all had dings in the first five games.
At CB, veteran starter Cam Brown missed the last two games. Denzel Burke missed the Wisconsin game with a hand injury.
CB 10 DENZEL BURKE (6-1, 190, 2nd, Phoenix)
* Four-star recruit ranked No. 148 in the nation.
* Second-year starter.
* Third-team All-Big Ten and freshman All-America last year.
* Missed UW game.
* Started against Rutgers
CB 26 CAMERON BROWN (6-0, 196, Gr., St. Louis, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 9 in Missouri
* Third-year starter. HM All-Big Ten last year.
* Missed Wisconsin game.
CB Jyarie Brown (5-11, 180, 1st, New Orleans, La./Senior HS year at Cincinnati Lakota West)
* Four-star recruit ranked No. 167 in the nation.
* Made first career start vs Wisconsin due to shortages.
* Was flagged for pass interference and allowed a nine-yard completion on back-to-back plays against Wisconsin.
CB 4 JK Johnson (6-0, 179, 2nd, St. Louis, Mo.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 49 in nation.
+ Very handsy and physical in press coverage in the 1Q vs Rutgers in a third-and-long attempted deep shot. The WR never was able to get into his route and complained about holding or pass interference, but you can get that physical before the ball is in the air. Johnson was physical on this play, taking a page out of Michigan’s CB book.
* Made first career start vs Wisconsin due to shortages.
* Is the first CB off the bench.
* Wisconsin tested him on a deep go route on third and long in the first quarter. The receiver might have been open by a half step but QB Mertz overthrew him.
SAFETIES
* Knowles wants three somewhat interchangeable safeties. Looks like he has them.
S 14 RONNIE HICKMAN (6-1, 207, 4th, South Orange, NJ)
* four-star recruit, No. 215 in the nation.
* The lone member of the secondary to start every game this season.
* Not the fastest guy. On a deep shot in the first quarter, he was a half step slower than CB JK Johnson and Wisconsin WR Keontez Lewis.
NICKEL 15 TANNER McCALISTER (5-11, 195, Gr., Rockwall, Texas)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, unranked in Texas.
* Transfer from Oklahoma State.
* missed the Akron game (groin, according to a teammate).
* Played only 10 snaps last week.
* OK State transfer, came with Knowles. Knowles calls him a coach on the field who knows the scheme better than anyone.
- Went out with an above-the-shoulder injury last week.
+ Good pass break up at the end of the 1H against Wisconsin. WR was open in the deep cover-two hole. McCalister was honoring a deep threat to the middle. He had to do a 90 degree speed turn, and hurried to the catch point and knocked it out at the last instant. UW thought they had a deep TD there for a second, but the window closed.
FILM ROOM
* Ohio State safety Tanner McCalister (No. 15) had an INT against Wisconsin on UW’s opening drive.
OSU was in cover-one man. McCalister was in off man vs the slot WR. UW QB Mertz made a bad throw.
OSU had a single safety deep, rushed five, covered four receivers in man-to-man.
The 11th defender was LB Eichenberg dropping into the short middle area, spying the QB and looking for crossers.
So instead of two-deep/man under it was one deep/man under with the extra “safety” lurking shallow in the person of LB Eichenberg. Meanwhile the actual second safety was playing off man-to-man on the slot WR and made the INT.
To play this coverage, first of all you need to trust that your safety can play man-to-man on a slot WR. That’s where Michigan State runs into problems. When Michigan State tried to put a safety in man-to-man in the slot last year with Angelo Grose, teams torched him.
Can Michigan State do it with Jaden Mangham or Kendell Brooks as the man-to-man coverage player in the slot? I haven’t seen it tested or demonstrated yet. I have my doubts. Mangham has ability but he is young. Brooks has answered a lot of calls this year and I haven’t seen many failures out of him. He was influenced into overzealous busts two or three times last week. But his brain has been pretty good, he has moved pretty well and of course he has hit like a log.
If and when Michigan State employs some man-to-man defense and if, for argument’s sake, Michigan State tried to run a man-under scheme like this one with a LB lurking, where do you think the QB would look to attack MSU’s athletic weakness? The safety in the slot? or maybe Ameer Speed at CB?
Seems like a lot of low-hanging fruit out there for a QB, ESPECIALLY if he reads man-to-man well before the snap (as was the case in the Minnesota game).
So anyway, this INT was a case of OSU presenting one of its multiple defensive looks, AND having the athletic ability to carry it out AND the same-page, one-mindedness to deploy while playing fast, without busts.
S 13 CAMERON MARTINEZ (5-10, 190, 3rd, Muskegon High)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 7 in Michigan.
* Was out last week, or else he likely would have replaced McCalister.
* Has played 87 snaps this season.
(37 Kye Stokes, 6-1, 190, 1st, Seffner, Fla.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 247 in the country.
* Replaced McCalister when McCalister went down with an upper body ding in the 1Q last week. Stokes played 37 snaps last week.
S 41 JOSH PROCTOR (6-2, 205, 5th, Owasso, Okla.)
* Four-star recruit ranked No. 80 in the country.
* Boundary safety is known as the “bandit” in the OSU system. But he doesn’t play in the slot like John L Smith’s bandit did. They are the same in name only.
* Missed the Akron game.
* Missed a tackle against ND and was replaced in the starting lineup by Lathan Ransom.
* Returned as the starter vs Wisconsin.
S 12 Lathan Ransom (6-1, 205, 3rd, Tucson, Ariz.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 6 in Arizona.
* Heavy hitter stopped 265-pound Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer in his tracks, short of first down yardage on a key third down play.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Their kickoff specialist had 10 touchbacks on 12 kickoffs against Toledo.
* KO returner 19 muffed the opening kickoff against Wisconsin. He recovered it, but pinned the OSU offense deep.
ADD IT ALL UP
Ohio State just has too many horses. They would need to make several mistakes like last week’s fumbled punt, and MSU’s offense and defense would have to play better than they have demonstrated to this point, in order for Michigan State to be within striking distance in the fourth quarter.
Michigan State could hang tough for a lot of snaps and plays in this game, but when Ohio State wants to go to the air to the deep middle, it’s hard to hang with those receiver AND honor the run. So basically, it’s hard to keep them from moving the chains, and eventually getting into the end zone. And Michigan State shows no ability to keep up in a shootout
