EAST LANSING - I’m behind deadline due to all of the commitment news, so let’s skip the flowery intro and get right to it.
Michigan State is in close to a must-win situation. Lose this game and they’re staring down the barrell of a 2-3 start, headed toward its first out-of-state road trip to currently-unbeaten Minnesota.
Michigan State needs to come through in a winnable game RIGHT NOW. But Michigan State won’t win if they play like they did last week, and Iowa plays defense like they did last week in a loss at the buzzer to Penn State.
“We’re not broken,” Mark Dantonio said after the loss to Notre Dame. “We have guys that can make plays. I think our football team can win a lot of football games.”
I think he’s right. But not without tightening up their loose ends.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST:
* Iowa’s defense is good. Very good at d-line, very good at linebacker, very good vs the run at all four DB positions. Pass defense is what it usually is for Iowa: solid zone, good tackling out of the zone, closing the windows rapidly. But they get a little shoddy in man-to-man on third down sometimes.
Iowa’s defense didn’t look great against Iowa State in a shootout overtime win three weeks ago, and the Hawkeyes allowed some yards to Penn State. But Penn State’s offense is tremendous, and Iowa’s offense was terrible that night (thus PSU kept getting the ball back, had numerous possessions).
But I look at individuals and team play, and Iowa’s defense was excellent against PSU, despite the deceiving stats.
Penn State rolled up 579 yards of offense. But Iowa had only 11 first downs. PSU had 99 offensive plays, compared to 45 for Iowa.
An indictment of Iowa’s offense? To an extent yes. But PSU’s defense is outstanding. That team is loaded.
PSU averaged 5.8 yards per play last week. That’s the same that ND and Michigan State averaged against each other last week, and I don’t think anyone would say the Irish or Spartans ripped through the opposing defenses, and neither did PSU against Iowa. PSU just ALWAYS had the ball.
In those 99 plays, there were plenty of times when Iowa players won their plays, won their collisions, made strong hits, open-field tackles. But their tackling did wear down in the second half. They probably won’t have a wear-down problem against Michigan State because MSU’s offense isn’t as good as Penn State’s and Michigan State doesn’t run tempo very often. This will be a slug fest, not a sprint relay.
I think Iowa’s defense is getting stronger. They’ve made a change at safety and are much better back there now, after blowing some gaskets against North Texas and Iowa State.
* Iowa’s QB is limited. He is the consummate game manager, and he continues to get comfortable. Admitted to nervousness problems earlier in the year.
They don’t ask him to do a ton. He has put up numbers with easy passes, little checkdowns, little leak routes, bubble screens, short outs to the slot.
Defense needs to press forward, stop the run, challenge the underneath throws, make QB beat you downfield. That’s what Penn State did, and they stifled the Iowa offense. But Penn State’s defense is underrate. They run, hit, play square, tackle, disrupt. That Penn State team is much better than the score indicated.
* Iowa’s offensive line was supposed to be very good this year, possibly the best in the Big Ten, ranked among the national Top 10 o-lines in the preseason by Athlon’s. But they are not that.
Their pass protection looks good. But their trademark zone game, especially the outside zone, is not nearly as good as it’s been in the past.
From there, their tight ends are functional, but not nearly the matchup headaches they’ve been in the past.
At wide receiver, Iowa is still largely unproven, and of limited talent.
Michigan State has a big, big advantage in offensive skill at WR. Michigan State MUST capitalize on that advantage, one of the Spartans’ few advantages. That means Brian Lewerke needs to be a part of it and he needs to make sure he doesn’t squander a 300-plus yard day of passing with two or three giveaways. Michigan State OBVIOUSLY needs to end the ball security problem.
If Michigan State is a -1 in this game in turnovers, they will have a tough time winning. Minus-2, even more trouble. And Iowa is quite good at the turnover game. They forced two huge turnovers against PEnn State which kept them in the game, and then Iowa played excellent red zone defense, excellent ground defense inside the 5-yard line. Penn State missed two field goals (Iowa blocked one. Iowa also blocked a field goal against North Texas).
Iowa also had a big INT vs Iowa State with 5-minutes to go, returning it inside the 5-yard line for a game-tying field goal.
Iowa will turn you over. Their crafty zone defense puts those weird-named defensive players in your window for maddening INTs. Always have. Probably always will.
And their d-line tips A LOT of passes, which also increases the chances for INTs. And Brian Lewerke has had a little bit of trouble seeing through tall d-linemen at this stage in his career, sometimes pumping when a taller QB might be throwing. He has to figure that out, if possible.
ADD UP THE MATCHUPS
* IOWA RUN GAME VS MSU RUN DEFENSE:
Iowa RB Akrum Wadley is terrific, probably an NFL guy at 5-11 ,195. Shifty, physical enough, home run speed. He’s become quite dangerous as a receiver, on little leak routes, wheel route (alert! TD vs North Texas). He gets in the open field, he’s like Javon Ringer. He’s difficult.
HOWEVER, the o-line has not done a great job for him.
I think Michigan State can defeat the blocking up front. Iowa will have little, odd-timed wrinkles, like the big lead draw they spring late in the game last week.
But I think MSU’s defensive front will stand strong against Iowa’s trademark zone run scheme.
Michigan State needs to be better against the draw play. Iowa runs it well. Matt Morrissey was a step slow vs a sprint lead draw late in the third quarter, for a gain of 15. Iowa will see that on film. These are some of the loose screws that need to be tightened.
Throw in a missed tackle by Khari WIllis on the first play of the game, and missed tackles by Josh Butler, Brian Randle, Josiah Scott. Butler and Scott can tackle better than that.
Is Michigan State shoddy for the long-term in some of these areas, or was it a case of bye week rust? That bye week came at a terrible time for Michigan State and interrupted their development. Now they need to harness mid-season form, because ND was already there, and Iowa is too.
Iowa rushed for only 82 yards last week (although the 3.6 per carry average wasn’t bad).
Iowa rushed for 164 yards against Iowa State (4.0 per carry). Not bad. Not great. I would expect Michigan State to hold Iowa below 150. Anything below 125 and MSU’s chances of winning go up a great deal, as long as turnovers aren’t skewed.
Overall, I think Michigan State’s run defense should be fine in this matchup.
* IOWA PASS GAME vs MSU PASS DEFENSE
Iowa’s receivers are below standard. The QB, Sophomore Nate Stanley, is a game manager, not dynamic.
They have their little traits, like the fade in the red zone. But they don’t have much to “take the top off a defense,” deep. And they don’t ask him to drop and look far downfield. There have been times when he has done a decent job of moving safeties with his eyes. He doesn’t stare down receivers as much as ND’s Wimbush did earlier in the year.
Stanley put up big numbers against ISU, 333 yards, five TDs, but he didn’t make any challenging throws in that game, believe it or not. And he had a TD that was deflected at the line of scrimmage and wound up in the hands of a Hawkeye tight who wasn’t the intended receiver.
He’s solid. Not great. He doesn’t have great WRs to work with.
I’ll go out on a limb and say MSU’s pass defense is pretty good. The corners have been solvent. ND hit Matt Morrissey for a deep pass (behind a blitz that didn’t get home), and Michigan State is going to continue to have questions with safety matchups against some opponents, but I don’t think that’s the case vs Iowa. They don’t scare you.
* Michigan State allowed three deep passes last week. There was the one vs Morrissey on the first drive. Blitz didn’t get home. Having Morrissey on St. Brown wasn’t ideal, QB led him a little too much but St. Brown laid out to catch it. Big play, but missed tackles earlier in the drive, and MSU’s inability to get a stop in the red zone were of equal blame for that TD drive.
* The deep pass to the TE at the end of the first half, again an athletic TE laid out to make a diving catch. Overthrown a little bit. A talented receiver bailed him out. A week earlier, Wimbush misses both of these throws. But what about Michigan State? What happened on that coverage?
Well, Michigan State was in base quarters zone. The safeties were deep, probably too deep, and too late in reacting. Michigan State likes to try to keep things in front of them, while also playing their safeties closer to the box than most teams. However, I think Michigan State is playing safeties a little deeper this year, after all the beating Demetrious Cox and Montae Nicholson took over the last couple of years, and ND capitalized on that bigger window on this play. But barely.
Bad pass defense? Individually? Maybe not. Structurally, we’ll have to keep observing.
* The deep, juggling catch along the sideline vs Butler. Perfect pass, crazy-good catch to make the grab AND get a foot down at the 8-yard line. Good coverage by Butler. Not bad by Butler. Just football.
The deep passes weren’t a case of Michigan State individuals not being able to hang. Three passes, three great catches. Good defense on one of the three.
* Iowa’s bootleg roll game is not as good as it used to be, either, firstly because they don’t gash you with with outside zone anymore. They don’t make you lean toward that play, and then hit you with the counter bootleg roll pass off of it. First of all, the outside zone is not great. Secondly, the QB is not mobile, doesn’t throw well on the run, so that Kirk Ferentz staple has been marginalized (and don’t get it twisted. regardless of who the o-coordinator is at Iowa, the Hawkeyes will run 80 pct of the stuff they have always run, and approach the offensive game the way they always have under Kirk Ferentz. By the way, his son, Brian Ferentz, is a first-year o-coordinator for Iowa, in case you were interested).
Michigan State did not tackle well last week, especially on the perimeter. I think the bye week had a lot to do with that. Iowa’s WRs are not as difficult to tackle as ND’s. Wadley is a chore, though. But I expect MSU’s tackling to be improved, and team concepts to be good. I would be a little worried about the battering Joe Bachie took last week. Byron Bullough came in and played pretty well but was involved in a gap fit error that resulted in a 16-yard TD run for ND last week (Chris Frey was carved out of his gap on that play too, when ND showed a new-look trap).
Still, even with questions about Bachie’s ability to brawl for 15 rounds at this point, I like the chances of MSU’s defense to have a handle on the Iowa offensive puzzle for most of the day.
* MSU RUN GAME vs IOWA RUN DEFENSE
MSU’s run game is good, in theory. But we’ve not really seen it for real. I think the Michigan State run game was in the process of having a good day vs ND when LJ Scott fumbled at the goal line. That was a 14-yard TD run, taken away by the fumble. And it was done with a real nice counter trey, blocked well by Collin Lucas and David Beedle.
If that stands as a TD, Michigan State has punched back and cut the lead to 21-14, and done it in a physical way with a strong ground play. Michigan State rushed for 121 yards in the the first half. True, 50-plus were on a QB sneak. But Michigan State was in the process of having a 225-yard type of ground day, which would have set the stage for a great chance to win, if the turnover thing hadn’t mounted.
Instead of 21-14, with the defense on the field with momentum, it stayed 21-7. The next time Lewerke took a snap, his team was down 28-7 and the run game had become marginalized.
I like the way the Michigan State o-line is shaping up. But Iowa’s defensive front is excellent. This is a very good matchup, very good football will be played when Michigan State runs the ball vs this run defense.
They two-gap you on the d-line, so that will be different for MSU’s young o-line. It’s not tricky, it’s physical. Iowa d-linemen aren’t trying to shoot gaps and avoid blocks. They’re taking on blocks head-up, reading, and disengaging. It’s a physical, tiring brutal test for o-lines. Michigan State has established some depth on the o-line, but they’re all young guys. This will be some new medicine for them.
Iowa State rushed for 120 vs Iowa. I didn’t study how they went about it.
Penn State’s run game was contained in the first half, but the great Saquon Barkley got loose in the second half and ended up rushing for 212. PSU rushed for 295.
Those figures do not AT ALL indicate how well Iowa is CAPABLE of playing run defense.
I remember Iowa defenses in past years that were very, very good but the offense did nothing to complement their efforts, so the defense would end up getting hung out to dry in the fourth quarter, playing too many snaps, and would end up allowing more points per game that was indicative of the quality of that defense. I sense the same thing brewing for Iowa this year, if they can’t get their offense to hold up more of the bargain.
I think Iowa could contain MSU’s ground game for three quarters. From there, how well will Iowa’s defense do vs MSU’s ground game? Well, tell me how well Iowa’s offense is doing, and I’ll tell you that the Iowa defensive front would be fine, down-in and down-out against a potentially-good Michigan State ground game.
But there’s the rub. Is MSU’s ground game actually good, or still just potentially good? I think MSU’s run blocking has been better than the running back play, thus far.
Dantonio is challenging the run offense for more plays that break into the secondary, for longer run. Well, duh, yeah. And he’s right to call for it. The trick is making it happen. MSU’s o-line wasn’t great at sustaining blocks for the extra breakout in the first two games. But I didn’t see Michigan State blockers losing a lot of battles last week. I think Beedle, Higby, Chewins, Campbell are right on schedule if not ahead of schedule.
LJ Scott seemed to be running harder last week, and seemed to be on his way to a good game, then the fumble. And Michigan State didn’t have much punch at RB behind him when Gerald Holmes and Madre London came in. Granted, ND’s defensive front was pretty good. Iowa’s front seven is a little better against the run, in my opinion. Iowa doesn’t overrun the zone like ND did against Boston College. And Iowa’s d-ends, overall, are a tad better against the run than ND’s.
So I’ll give the edge to Iowa in this matchup, because I’m not going to try to market-time when MSU’s running backs are going to ratchet up.
* MSU PASS GAME vs IOWA PASS DEFENSE
For the second straight week, this SHOULD be the balance-tipper.
The game CAN be won at the line of scrimmage with the ground game. But if neither team carves out a consistent advantage on the ground, which I think is more than likely to be the case, then CAN Michigan State out-produce Iowa’s passing attack. Michigan State SHOULD be able to do it, based on MSU’s big edge in wide receiver skill and talent.
Iowa’s pass rush is pretty good, but they don’t sell out to come after you. They two-gap, then read to stop the run, then transition to pass rush, and somehow still press the pocket on you. But MSU’s pass pro has been pretty good. Chewins has been hailed for leading the Big Ten in pass blocking efficiency by Pro Football Focus. He was beaten once last week and had to commit a holding penalty. But he’s been good all year, and will get better.
Luke Campbell, good pass pro vs big, tough Jay Hayes last week, which will prepare him well for Iowa’s big d-ends. Campbell was also good vs No. 42’s spin move on third-and-17 in the third quarter last week.
Campbell began the fourth quarter at left tackle last week, which will help Chewins play harder and get breathers.
* Overall, Iowa presents some tricky puzzles with their zone defense, which might not look that great on film. But when QBs see it for the first time, the windows are deceptively tight.
Can Lewerke navigate against this trademark Iowa zone? It’s not the best Iowa pass defense of all time, but it’s plenty solid. Solid enough to fool a young QB who had a bad error last week in failing to read an easy-to-read four-deep zone. The pick-six Lewerke threw last week should have been thrown to the other side of the field, to the zone pass route side of the field. But he throw to the man-to-man route side of the field, against a zone, and the cloud-coverage CB read it all the way and even baited it a little.
Lewerke knows what he did wrong. He has good talent, good quick release, good mechanics, good zip, good accuracy, throws on time most of the time. He’s ready to take the next step as a QB from being pretty good to quite good. Handling his business against this zone defense is the next step.
He’ll see man-to-man on third downs against Iowa, which he is probably comfortable with. And he can tuck and run in those third-down situations.
Overall, can Michigan State win this portion of the game? Michigan State MUST win this portion of the game. Will they? You’ll begin to find out when I do.
* SPECIAL TEAMS
I usually don’t go into special teams much, but Michigan State should have a big edge in the punt game. If this becomes a defensive struggle, Michigan State could gain a 10-yard advantage on each punt exchange. MSU’s punter is very good. Iowa’s struggles.
THE MICRO:
First of all, Iowa is 3-1.
Results:
W vs Wyoming, 24-3
W at Iowa State, 44-41 (OT)
W vs North Texas, 31-14
L vs Penn State, 21-19
(Iowa State is 2-2, with a 17-7 loss to Texas last week. ISU beat Akron , 41-14, beat Northern Iowa, 42-24.)
(Wyoming is 2-2. Wyoming beat Gardner Webb 27-0, Lost to Oregon 49-13, beat Hawaii 28-21 in OT).
* It was a long time ago, but Iowa State looked so soft defensively at times in its game against Iowa that I had to look up ISU’s results to see what they’ve done in other games. I’m surprised to find that they held Texas to 17 points last week in a 17-7 loss. Stuff happens in early September that is hard to explain and doesn’t continue into the rest of the season. It’s just the way it is.
* Penn State out-gained Iowa 579-273. Penn State had two major turnovers that led directly to TDs (sound familiar?) including one right before halftime. Iowa capitalized with a 20-yard TD pass and, boom, Iowa led 7-5 at halftime despite being DOMINATED for the opening 30 minutes.
* Penn State moved the ball, but didn’t convert in the red zone, had the two expensive turnovers, missed two field goals, left Iowa in the game.
Iowa popped off two or three big offensive plays, and boom, led with one minute to go.
If it had been a boxing match, Penn State would have won the 12-round fight 10 rounds to two.
I came away very impressed with Penn State at all 22 positions.
* Defensively, PSU’s front seven overwhelmed an experienced Iowa o-line.
* Iowa RB Akrum Wadley netted -3 yards after his first 11 carries.
IOWA STUFF:
* New o-coordinator, Brian Ferentz. But some of the same old Kirk Ferentz hallmarks are in place, such as:
* Lots of use of a two-TE, balanced line. They run outside zone out of that formation.
* They love to hug the short side. If the ball is on a hash, and they are running the ball, 80-plus percent of the time, it’ll be to the short side. (Said the same thing about ND last week, and they continued to show that percentage). I have said the same thing about Iowa and the short side for years.
* They stupidly ran a counter toss in their own end zone last week against a d-line that had been winning up front, and guess what, PSU won on that play at tackled Wadley in the end zone for a safety and a 5-0 lead.
LAST WEEK:
* PSU stacked the box with 8 against Iowa’s I formation, challenged Stanley to beat them. He couldn’t quite do it.
* Iowa had a terrible time in the first half. Tried inside zone, outside zone, power, three-step drop fade, three-step drop slot out, and pocket passing. Virtually nothing worked.
* With 6 minutes to go in the first half, PSU had a 182-19 advantage in total offense, but the score was just 5-0.
* In the second half, PSU with a short field drive for a TD to go up 12-5. Barkley with runs of 25 and 20 on that drive and Iowa defense started to lose its fizz. The latter was just one of those jump-cut Barry Sanders jobs, eluding Jewell. Barkley amazing.
* PSU took control in the 3q with some dazzling Barkley runs. They finally got in the end zone with a 5-yard speed option pitch to Barkley, who out-raced the Iowa defense to the pylon. Barkley finally out-slicked Iowa often enough. Michigan State has no one like Barkley. I’m not sure any team in the country has someone like Barkley.
+ 3-6 with 10 minutes to go, Iowa QB passed to the RB Wadley on a flare route vs man to man green dog blitz. MLB for PSU, Babinga, who had had a great game, got turned inside out like Frey last week on third-and-goal. Wadley weaved his way through the secondary for a 70-yard TD, and this game was suddenly 15-13, with Iowa basically having had only three or four decent offensive plays all night.
* Then Iowa blocked a field goal. Then Iowa got the ball back and drove in the final two minutes to take the lead:
IOWA’S GO AHEAD TD DRIVE
* Deep post to TE Noah Fant drew pass interference.
(Earlier, i said Iowa doesn’t have a TE that can stetch you. Well, they saved it for this play and he drew a jersey tug, for interference. Good call. Fant is a sophomore. I’ll remain open-minded about him as a player. But he hasn’t struck me as a field-stretching mismatch type of TE. Maybe he COULD be that, if he had WR teammates who could command more safety attention).
+ Shallow crossing route to WR Smith-Marsette for 8 yards. (Smith-Marsette is a fast guy, just getting his feet wet)
+ Fade to WR VandeBerg to the short side for 22 yards, took a big hit and held on. Iowa had only had three or four or five offensive plays of more than 10 yards to that point. This was one of them, at crunch time. VandeBerg is not that fast off the line of scrimmage. He missed last year with an injury. Not a worrisome guy.
+ Sprint draw to Wadley for a 35-yard TD run. Great call because it was a run to the field side, something Iowa rarely does. And it was a type of draw play Iowa had not shown all night. They saved it as a new-look wrinkle, and popped it for a home run. Iowa’s play design and execution had looked horrible all night, and then in this two-minute drill they had a play or two that made them look like the New England Patriots. TD put them up 20-15 with 1:42 left.
PSU GAME WINNING DRIVE: Three freelance plays by Sorley made the difference.
* PSU converted a fourth-and-2 with a slant with :53 left at midfield.
* QB scramble vs man to man nickel gained 16.
* Freelance scramble rules go route pass for 16 yards to the 24-yard line.
* QB pressured dump off valve to barkley for 14 yards to the 10-yard line. Evaded LB Josey Jewell. QB barely avoided QB sack, took a hit to make the freelance pass.
* TD pass from 7 yards at the buzzer. A nod/post route to WR Juwan Johnson vs Iowa’s safety, turning Miles Taylor inside-out.
IOWA TRENDS & SCHEMES: OFFENSE
* Iowa lacks a WR who can take the lid off a defense (meaning they lack a proven deep threat). Tried to go deep to VandeBerg twice last week and he just doesn’t have the juice to set up a double move and change speeds. The freshman has some promise, but the key word here is “proven deep threat.” They tried VandeBerg. He ain’t it.
* As strong as their o-line is supposed to be, I haven’t seen great run blocking from them as of yet. Their outside zone is not as good as it usually is, with multiple players failing to be the road graders they usually have for that play.
* They use the bubble screen more than I remember Iowa teams in the past. They use it to WR 84 Easley somewhat well.
* I don’t remember the wheel route being part of the narrow Iowa package in the past, but they hit one to Wadley for a 74-yard TD vs North Texas. They caught North Texas in a man-to-man blitz for that one, so it wasn’t against the Michigan State quarters zone, but Michigan State needs to be on wheel route alert for Wadley. But the play was flagged for high-step taunting, walking it back to the 21-yard line. Iowa scored later.
ALERTS
* They love to run to the short side of the field, probably favoring it 80 pct of the time, and it’s been that way for at least 15 years.
* Two tight ends, balanced line, one wide out to each side, they love the outside zone out of that look. Have for years. BUT you don’t see the counter boot pass out of this look AS MUCH as they used to. Stanley doesn’t seem to be mobile enough to give them that staple this year.
They’ll do it a little, and it’s kind of awkward.
Stanley attempted a waggle roll on second and goal from the 12 vs North Texas, but looked slow doing it, didn’t find anyone open, tucked and ran for a gain of 4. (Waggle roll meaning it was play-action, and he rolled in the direction of the flow of the o-line blocking rather than bootlegging naked against the o-line flow). And this was out of shot gun, rather than Iowa’s usual hard run fake from under center.
They did manage a slow-developing counter boot to TE 39 Nate Wieting. They peeled the TE out on sort of a sneak route for an 17-yard play to the 1-yard line. Ball was caught at the line of scrimmage.
* On third downs, they seem to like the “mesh concept,” a three-WR shallow criss-cross combination. Keeping it simple.
GAME-TYING DRIVE IN TWO-MINUTE VS IOWA STATE:
* It all amounted to a simple little circle/leak route to RB Wadley for a 46-yard TD catch and run. He caught the ball at the line of scrimmage, 41 yards after contact, broke four tackles to score with 1:10 remaining.
INSIDE IOWA’S PERSONNEL:
QUARTERBACK:
4 NATE STANLEY (6-5, 212, Soph., Menomonie, Wis.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 7 in Wisconsin.
* Also had an offer from Wisconsin.
* Season stats: 61 pct (64 of 105), 846 yards. 12 TDs, 1 INT.
Michigan State d-ends coach Mark Snyder on Stanley: “He manages the game. I mean, he plays within himself. He doesn’t try to do anything, in my opinion, that he can’t do. He knows his limitations and he knows his strengths, and I think he plays to his strengths. And that goes back to that game management. I think the coaches know, and I think the quarterback understands what the coaches want.”
= Was 16 of 27 for 197 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs vs North Texas. One of the TDs was a fortunate tipped situation type of pass.
= Was 13 of 22 for 191 yards and 2 TDs vs PSU, with a 50.4 QB Rating.
* Battled through some nerves earlier this season.
plusses and minuses in the notebook:
- Missed VandeBerg very high on square-in on first pass of the game vs PSU.
- Antsy in the pocket vs PSU blitzes on third-and-long.
- Missed VandeBerg on a shallow cross on 1-10 in the 2Q last week, throwing behind him.
+ TD to slot WR Nick Easley (84) on a skinny post-corner. That was right before the half, after an INT. Stanley good job of looking off the safety. That’s something he does well, moves safeties with his eyes.
- Missed high for Easley (84) on a corner route on first play of drive after PSU took a 15-7 lead. Tip-drill INT overturned, luckily. That was a bad pass. Inaccurate to an open WR.
- Threw behind WR Easley on first play of game vs North Texas, but Easley twisted and caught it for gain of 9. Out route to the field.
+ Good out route to Easley to the right (field side) in 1Q vs North Texas. Three-step drop, easy throw vs off coverage.
+ Bubble screen to Easley for what should have been a 7-yard TD vs North Texas. Easy pass vs soft slot coverage. Not a difficult read or throw for Stanley. But Easley fumbled at the goal line.
+ Throws a decent fade to the short side (TD vs Iowa State, 15 yards to No. 6, Smith-Marsette).
+ Game winning TD pass in OT vs ISU: 5-yard sprint out pass to Smith-Marsette. Nothing difficult. Game manager.
RUNNING BACK
25 RB AKRUM WADLEY (5-11, 195, Sr., Newark, NJ)
* Was a 5.2, two-star recruit, unranked in New Jersey.
* Also had an offer from Temple. Committed on signing day after making only one visit, to Iowa, two days prior to signing day.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year. 1,081 yards. 10 TDs.
* Had a TD negated by a high step personal foul.
Stats this year:
116 yards (24 carries) vs Wyoming
118 yards (28) vs Iowa State
24 yards (8) vs North Texas State. Benched after being flagged for high-stepping penalty which negated at TD.
80 yards (19 carries) vs Penn State.
* Had four straight 100-yard rush games prior to the North Texas game. Had 24 yards on eight carries in that game, and a team-high 80 yards receiving on two catches. Had a 68-yard catch on that game.
* Toss sweep with C and RT pulling, no gain on a 2-10 last week, loss of 2 actually.
* 5-yard catch on a play action waggle to the flat, just trying to complete a pass. Didn’t get much.
+ Popped off an 18-yard run on a lead draw on the last play of the 3q last week. Finally found a run play that worked.
* They tried it again five players later, gained 5 yards.
+ 15 yard gain on a delay lead draw early vs North Texas.
++ 74-yard TD reception on a wheel route vs man-to-man against North Texas. But the play was flagged for high-step taunting, walking it back to the 21-yard line. Iowa scored later.
21 RB TOREN YOUNG (5-11, 220, R-Fr., Monona Grove, Wis.)
* Had 78 yards on 19 carries against North Texas
* Has not played in the other games.
* 5.6 3-star recruit, No. 8 in Wisconsin.
* No other offers or visits.
* I have no opinion on him. Haven’t seen him.
21 RB IVORY KELLY-MARTIN (5-11, 195, Fr., Plainfield, Ill.)
* Had 74 yards on 11 carries vs North Texas.
* No opinion.
FB 45 DRAKE KULICK (6-1, 240, Sr., Muscatine, Iowa)
* He looks like a Drake Kulick.
* Was a two-star walk-on, had an offer from Northern Iowa.
* Solid FB but I wouldn’t say he’s a difference-maker. Had a 26-yard reception vs ISU, turning a little dump-off into a rambling gainer.
WIDE RECEIVERS
89 WR MATT VANDEBERG (6-1, 195, Sr., Brandon, SD).
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit, unranked. Had only one major offer.
* Iowa’s only returning player who had caught a pass in college.
* 10 catches, 107 yards, possession receiver although they try to stretch the field with him but can’t quite get much out of it.
- Dropped short out route on 1-10 last week.
= Average take-off on a deep fade attempt vs press (8 man front) on second-and-10 late in the 1Q last week, INC.
+ TD 18 yards vs ISU on fade. Again, mediocre acceleration off the line, but accelerated better in the next 10 yards. Mediocre press coverage by ISU.
Stats this year:
2 catches, 19 yards vs Wyoming.
3 catches, 42 yards vs ISU
3 catches, 19 yards vs North Texas
2 catches, 27 yards vs PSU.
Hasn’t been much of a threat.
Had 65 catches in 2015 (4 TDs).
Played four games last year and had 19 catches and was then lost for the season.
84 NICK EASLEY (5-11, 203, Jr., Newton, Iowa).
* Joned the program in January. Walk-on, juco transfer from Iowa Western CC.
* Was set to go to Iowa State, but Iowa got in on him late. His mother works at U of Iowa, and he had no trouble de-committing from ISU to enroll at Iowa.
18 catches, 189 yards, 3 TDs.
+21-yard TD catch vs PSU last week at the end of the 1H, nice leaping grab.
+ 10 yard TD vs ISU on bubble. He was in the slot, free release. Two-TE formation, easy pitch and catch, decent run after catch.
- Fumbled at the goal line after catching a bubble screen vs North Texas. Easy pass vs soft slot coverage.
6 WR HMIR SMITH-MARSETTE (6-2, 175, Fr., Newark, NJ)
* 5.5 three-star recruit.
* No. 27 in New Jersey.
* Also visited Minnesota and Rutgers.
* Fast.
- Dropped a shallow cross on 3-7 last week. On a three-man mesh route (crossing) flagged as being a pick play.
+ Leaping catch on deep slant-and-go last week in the 3q for 28 yards. QB barely got the high touch pass off.
+ TD on 15 yard hitch/fade combination vs ISU, lay out to make the diving catch. Cut ISU’s lead to 31-28.
TIGHT ENDS
* Iowa loves to target the TEs on third down and in the red zone.
TE 87 NOAH FANT (6-5, 232, Soph., Omaha)
* Was a 5.7 three-star recruit.
* No. 1 in Nebraska, No. 26 TE in nation.
* Had offers from ASU, Cal, ISU, Minnesota, Nebraska, UCLA, Vanderbilt.
Game stats this year:
vs Wyoming, 2 catches, 29 yards
vs ISU 3 catches, 30 yards
vs North Texas, 2 catches 30 yards
vs PSU, 1 catch 13 yards
Last year: 9 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD.
+ third-and-10, found TE 87 in man-to-man on curl in tight coverage. O-line picked up a five-man rush, for gain of 13.
+ Gain of 5 on a bubble on fourth-and-three vs North Texas, out of a bunch. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bubble screen to a tight end, much less from a tight bunch formation. Creative, but speaks to their lack of trusted athletes at WR.
TE 38 TJ HOCKENSON (6-5, 243, R-Fr., Chariton, Iowa)
* 5.5 three-star recruit, No. 5 in Iowa.
* Had offers from Iowa, ISU.
* Is getting a lot of playing time, as Iowa likes to use a two-TE personnel group, but I’m not sure he is up to their usual standard right now.
+ Skinny post for about 20 yards vs ISU vs soft MOFO (two deep, middle of field open) zone. Decent job by QB to see it and throw it. Not much resistance here.
* Didn’t notice him much, other than seeming confused on the first play of the 2H with Wadley getting stopped for a loss of 3 on a zone play.
= Tried to go deep to him, to the short side of the field, on a deep fly route, but PSU DB covered it easily. Iowa tipped off that something strange was coming. Iowa went with three WRs to the field, and had a TE attached to the short side. They NEVER use that formation. A an uncommon formation is a tipoff that an uncommon play is coming. For Iowa, a deep route to 38 as the only WR on that side of the field was a strange play. PSU was all over it.
And that’s about as far as Iowa will go in the trick department. And it wasn’t really a trick.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Iowa is supposed to have, arguably, the best o-line in the Big Ten. But they created zero room to run vs PSU in the first half last week. I’m not sure if that means Iowa isn’t so great, or that Penn State’s defensive front it excellent. I’m leaning toward the latter.
* As good as their o-line was supposed to be, and as good as they’ve been for decades with outside zone runs, I have been surprised to find that they have have NOT shown that they block that trademark play all that well this year.
* The Iowa linemen seemed like they ran and moved well on zone plays and were physical. But PSU’s defensive front ran better and was more physical. PSU’s defense was very impressive. Quick, fast and physical at d-line, ran well and tackled at LB, and their DBs really played quick and correct against the run. Sheesh. Damn.
Then I put in the North Texas film and I saw the same o-linemen getting whapped back when trying to zone block.
* PSU LBs did not respect play action, overplayed the run, didn’t fear Iowa play pass. Can Michigan State take a cue from that and flow LBs fast, stuff the run, put it on the QB?
LT 77 ALARIC JACKSON (6-7, 320, R-Fr., Detroit Renaissance)
* Michigander. Michigan State tried to get him late. He stuck with Iowa.
* 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 33 in Michigan.
* Visited Iowa and Iowa State.
* Apparently had offers from Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin.
* He’s okay, has a good future, but I don’t think he would be starting for Michigan State right now ahead of Luke Campbell.
- Smacked backward badly by PSU DT Curtis Cothran last week on a zone play to the other side.
* Solid future, but I don’t think he is up to the Iowa standard right now, either.
* I didn’t get a good look at him in pass protection, but I didn’t notice him getting beat.
LG 52 BOONE MYERS (6-5, 310, Sr., Webster City, Iowa)
* Three-year starter, and started a little bit as a freshman
* No opinion.
* Zero stars, former walk-on.
* Was third-team all-state.
* Defensive MVP for the North in the Iowa North-South All-Star Game.
* All-Conference in basketball, four letters in track.
(back-up LG 59 Ross Reynolds, 6-4, 300, Waukee, Iowa)
- Got pushed back a foot on an inside zone late in the 1Q last week for no gain.
C 78 JAMES DANIELS (6-4, 295, Jr., Warren, Ohio)
* Four-star recruit, No. 14 in Ohio, No. 4 center in the nation.
* July commitment, no other official visits.
* Had offers from Michigan State, UM, MIami, Auburn, apparently Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin.
* Third-team All-Big Ten, now that I look up his bio. That surprises me because any time I noticed him against PSU, he was struggling.
- double team of Daniels and Render was beaten back a yard by PSU DT Curtis Cothran. It’s one thing to hold a double-team to no movement, it’s another thing to just flat out split a double team and penetrate two yards into the backfield. Cothran’s penetration cleared the way for a stunting DE to get a TFL on Wadley, causing boos from Kinnick Stadium crowd.
+ Finally a plus play by an o-lineman, took 2 and a half quarters to see one vs PSU, but Daniels crossed the face of a DT, sealed him inside to win the gap and give Wadley room for a modest 9-yard gain and a first down. Plant a flag.
- Beaten back when snapping and pulling on a zone to the short side in the 1q vs North Texas.
- Beaten back on an outside zone to the short side for a loss of 5 vs North Texas, in the red zone.
RG 69 KEEGAN RENDER (6-4, 310, Jr., Indianola, Iowa)
* 5.5, three-star recruit, No. 7 in Iowa.
* Had offers from Iowa, ISU, directionals.
* Two-year starter.
* Beaten for QB hit early in 3q last week.
- Belted backward on an outside zone to the short side, his side, late in 1Q vs North Texas, enabling MLB to scrape and tackle for no gain.
+ Good mobility on inside zone vs ISU in the first quarter, 25-yarder. Reached to his zone, had no one there, angled back to cut off a linebacker. Athletic feet on that one.
RT 79 SEAN WELSH (6-3, 295, Sr., Springboro, Ohio)
* Was 5.6 three-star recruit. No. 43 in Ohio, No. 32 OG in the nation.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year. Honorable mention All-Big Ten as a sophomore.
* June commitment had offers from Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas, West Virginia.
- Got whapped back by second-string DE Kevin Givens at point of attack on an outside zone that went nowhere, on a 2-7 in the second quarter last week.
* veteran o-lineman who became the starting RT when Ike Boettger was lost to an achilles on Sept. 9. Formerly Welsh was a starting RG. Boettger was a three-year starter.
- Not great on a zone to his side, short side, early in North Texas game.
[THAT’s a LOT of minus signs for an Iowa offensive line, after watching them for six quarters. If I had more time, I would go back and watch them against ISU to see what their zone plays looked like against the Cyclones, but their run game stats weren’t great on that day, either.]
IOWA DEFENSE
* Defensive ends are the strength of the team. 98 Anthony Nelson looks like their best player, perhaps outside of Wadley. Back-up DE 94 AJ Epenesa is a five-star recruit, true freshman, with NFL written all over him. He can wheel.
* Batted down four passes in the 1H vs PSU last week.
* Stout against the run, tight coverage windows in cover-two zone. But they still play man-to-man on third downs, which I don’t think suits them well.
* Not a high-pct blitz team, but they’ll bring the occasional short-side corner, the occasional two-LB cross inside cross blitz. They blitzed a CB three times in the 1H vs PSU. Their favorite blitz is bringing the two ILBs, usually on a cross blitz, very much like Michigan State.
* Mainly two-deep zone. They’ll rock-and-roll the safeties into cover-three (without blitzing) at times.
WHAT MIGHT WORK AGAINST IOWA:
* LEWERKE QB DRAW OR SCRAMBLE: PSU caught Iowa in man-to-man on one occasion and Sorley scrambled for about 25 (called back for holding). Iowa doesn’t allow much open-field running, but QB auto keeper when seeing man-to-man could be something Lewerke has open to him on a third and medium.
* On a critical third-and-1 with 5 minutes left, Sorley audibled to a sprint out pass into the flat to Barkley. It gained about 15 yards. The audible, the moxie of Sorley. Michigan State is going to need some of that from Lewerke. Does he have the freedom to audible? Michigan State QBs usually do, but does he feel comfortable with it? Against this defense, you’d better set it up so that your QB has the chalk last. Is Lewerke there yet? You’ll find out when I do.
WATCH OUT FOR THIS:
SHORT YARDAGE DEFENSE
* Iowa goes to one-gapping when inside the 2-yard line and stuffed PSU with it last week. They go with a Bear front while one-gapping, which is kind of rare. Usually Bear front teams will two-gap out of a 30. Iowa is a base two-gap 40 team that switches to one-gapping in short yardage.
Anyway, they are very tough inside the 2-yard line. Michigan State has a penchant for foolishly wanting to prove its manhood against stout goal line defenses (see the UM game last year. UM was strong enough against the run when two-gapping, and even stronger when doing it with a 6-man defensive line in a goal line situation. Michigan State shouldn’t have tried it. I give Dantonio credit for being Dantonio, but I didn’t like that matchup inside the 5-yard line last year vs Michigan. Iowa isn’t as good as Michigan, but they stiffen inside the 5.)
Why bring that stuff up? Well, I see a combination that could lead to Michigan State falling prey to another good goal line defense, and turning it over on downs at some point with a pair of stuff interior runs.
DEFENSIVE LINE
DE 98 ANTHONY NELSON (6-7, 260, Soph. ,Urbandale, Iowa)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 4 in Iowa.
* Committed two weeks prior to signing day, also had offers fro ISU and directionals.
* Terrific, terrific looking d-end. Standout on the rise.
* Had 7 sacks last year as a reserve.
* Has 2.5 sacks so far this year.
* Mostly plays LDE, and will match up against Luke Campbell. Campbell has been pretty good (very good for a rookie). But Nelson will win more than he loses against Michigan State.
* Nelson will move to RDE when 90 Brincks comes into the game. So Cole Chewins will see him too, in a battle of two of the best sophomores at their position in the Big Ten and maybe the nation.
* Strong in playing the two-gap, has long arms to disengage and transition to the pass rush, and has the hip and ankle flex to turn the corner toward the QB.
+ 1.5 sacks against PSU.
+ Very good at the two-gap, then disengage when transitioning to the pass rush, then ran the hoop for a sack in the 1Q last week.
* Sack last week on a bull rush, putting Penn State RT Chasz Wright (a pretty good second-year starter) on skates, pushing him backward into the pocket.
* Batted down two passes in the first half last week.
+ Blocked a field goal with 2:44 left to keep Iowa within 15-13, setting the stage for their go-ahead score.
+ Batted down a third down pass with :04 seconds left.
(90 DE Sam Brincks, 6-5, 270, Jr., Carroll, Iowa)
* Would start for a lot of teams.
+ Nice TFL on Barkley in the 2Q, two-gap, read, disengage, finished the tackle.
+ Hit QB McSorley, causing INT by Jewell late in 1H, setting up a short TD and a sudden 7-5 hafltime lead for Iowa.
DE 40 PARKER HESSE (6-3, 257, Jr., Waukon, Iowa)
* 5.4 two-star recruit, No. 8 in Iowa.
* Offers from Iowa and directionals.
* Was a 205-pound LB in high school.
* HM All-Big Ten by coaches last year. 8 TFLs and 5 sacks last year.
+ INT vs ISU with 6 minutes to go set up game-tying FG. Was jumping to bat the pass, ended up intercepted a poor circle route. Iowa had first and goal, couldn’t score a TD.
DE 94 AJ EPENESA (6-5, 270, Glen Carbon, Ill.)
* Five-star recruit, No. 1 in Illinois, No. 1 strongside DE in the nation.
* Gets quite a bit of snaps, but not a ton. Seems like he should play more. He just looks like he’s at a different level when he’s on the field.
+ 2.5 sacks this year. Forced a fumble last week.
+ Push-and-pull beat the PSU right tackle, converged with NFL quickness, hit the QB for a fumble, recovered by Iowa, at midfield, when it looked like PSU was one play away from breaking it open. (PSU with three deep routes on that play by the way. Too much time in the pocket waiting for those to take shape. Last year they famously sent three, four receivers deep, even in the face of blitzes, and always seemed to get the pass away.”
(Parker Hesse)
99 RDT NATHAN BAZATA (6-2, 287, Sr., Howells, Neb.)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, No. 3 in Nebraska.
* Had no other offers.
* Quality player.
* Three-year starter.
* HM All-Big Ten last year by media.
+ Good job getting off LG to make a tackle on Barkley for a gain of 1 late in the 1Q last week.
+ Penetrated as a one-gapper in short yardage to halt a third-and-2 with 11:45 left in the game and Iowa down 15-7. He penetrated and DE 40 Hesse got off a block to assist on the tackle, forcing a 3-and-out after Iowa had missed a field goal.
95 LDT CEDRICK LATTIMORE (6-5, 295, Soph., Redford, Mich./East English Village Prep)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 15 in Michigan, No. 33 strong side DE.
* Had offers from Iowa, Michigan State and MACs.
* Had one tackle last year.
= Not great about double-teams.
* Plays the tilted DT, the George Perles invention.
- Not the sturdiest DT they’ve ever had.
(96, Matt Nelson, 6-8, 285, Jr., Cedar Rapids, back-up, no opinion)
++ Nelson and Bazata two-gapped their guy and got off to assist on a tackle on Barkley on second-and-2 with 9 minutes to play, holding him to a gain of 1. Man-sized play by the Iowa DTs. Then PSU false start on third-and-one, but picked up third-and-6 on a flare pass to Barkley.
LINEBACKERS
* We know how good Josey Jewell is. But Bower and Niemann were better than Bower in the first half last week. Good gosh.
* Jewell and Bower are QUICK and direct.
43 MLB JOSEY JEWELL (6-2, 236, Sr., Decorah, Iowa)
* Was 5.3 two-star recruit, unranked.
* Had offers from Iowa and Northern Iowa. Took an official visit to Northern Iowa.
* One of five Butkus Award finalists last year.
* Second team All-Big Ten in 2016, and ’15.
+ 16 tackles vs PSU.
+ Batted down a pass on an RPO, reading the mesh, kept coming forward, batted it down. “They’re good against RPOs,” said Brian Lewerke.
+ Excellent, excellent lateral movement in mirroring McSorley on a zone read last week. Moved his feet like a basketball defender.
+ Used that great basketball slide lateral movement (shuffle stacking, I think is what Saban used to call it) in hemming in Sorley for no gain on a second-and-goal at the 2.
+ Great defense on third-and-8 in the red zone with 2:55 left. He came on a blitz, read a shovel pass to Barkley, transitioned to the edge and closed in on Barkley before he could get loose. It took a great read and great quickness and a good tackle by Jewell. That was a first-team All-Big Ten type of play.
41 ILB BO BOWER (6-2, 235, Sr., West Branch, Iowa)
* Former walk-on.
* 5.3 two-star recruit, unranked. Had an offer from Northern Iowa. No offer from Iowa but visited a week before signing day.
* Three-year starter.
* plays FAST, especially for a big, bulky guy.
+ Stiff tackle on QB on fourth-and-2 keeper in the first quarter for a stoppage.
+ great, fast buzz coverage on the TE on a fourth-and-short stoppage in the 2Q. Bower had the buzz coverage to the flat with the Iowa CB having blitzed. Bower took Gisicki away. Big-time coverage by Bower.
- Missed a tackle with 40 on Barkley, who squirted away and down the sidelines for a gain of 25 early in the 2H.
44 SLOT LB BEN NIEMANN (6-2, 230, Sr., Sycamore, Ill.)
* 5.4 three-star recruit, No. 50 in Illinois.
* July commitment, had offers from MACs.
* Three-year starter.
* Was HM All-Big Ten by coaches as a sophomore in 2015.
* Seems out of place in defensing the slot, but many Iowa slot LBs have looked out of place there, and all that they do is get the job done.
They usually keep him on the field in passing situations. If you can match up with him man to man, in theory, you should get a good matchup. But I feel like I say that every year about Iowa’s slot LB, and still have nightmares about AJ Edds.
+ Second on the team in tackles.
- Missed a tackle on PSU TE Gisick in 3-6 out route for a first down in the red zone, setting up a TD and a 15-7 PSU lead .
+ Puts WR blockers on skates, backward to bounce plays.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
- Hooker and Rugamba missed tackles when Barkley made another crazy Barry Sander cut for 44 yards midway through the third quarter.
* As well as Iowa’s safeties tackled in the first half vs PSU, two Hawkeye safeties missed tackles on a 48-yard TD run allowed to North Texas (but No. 27 wasn’t on the field for that one).
15 LCB JOSHUA JACKSON (6-1, 185, Soph., Corinth, Texas).
* Was a two-star recruit with offers from Colorado State, Nevada and New Mexico State.
* 2 INTs, 7 pass break-ups.
+ Very good coverage on a corner fade from the 2-yard line on third-and-goal vs 6-foot-4 Juwan Johnson of PSU. Pass break-up, forced a field goal which gave PSU an 8-7 lead.
- Allowed 29-yard TD run on fourth-and-one vs ISU. He slipped and fell while defending a go route. Iowa blitzed, had no safeties back. Zero blitz.
5 RCB EMMANUEL RUGAMBA (6-0, 185, Soph., Naperville, Ill.)
* was a 5.7 3-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in Illinois.
+ Drew a holding penalty on an outside run in the first quarter last week, played the angle correctly and the WR had to hold him.
+ Good coverage vs Blacknall last week on a deep post in the 1Q. Rugamba was in bailing quarters, turned and matched the route step-for-step.
+ Plays the run real well to his side, setting the edge, defeating WR blocks
+ Physical, full-tilt sweep tackle vs TE Gisicki, coming out of cover-two zone.
27 S AMANI HOOKER (6-0, 210, Minneapolis)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 6 in Minnesota, No. 55 safety in nation.
* June commitment had offers from mid-majors.
* 13 tackles vs PSU.
* Rising standout.
+ Excellent tackle on Barkley on a swing pass on the opening drive to force a fourth-and-2.
+ Good tackle on Barkley on first play of the game last week, swing pass, scraping at a good angle, sound tackle.
+ Great open-field tackle on Barkley late in the 1Q.
+ Excellent pass break-up on a third-and-medium deep fade in the 2Q, behind press/man/blitz. PSU trying to beat a blitz deep. Hooker equal to the task.
(30 Jaek Gervase missed a tackle vs North Texas, resulting in a 48-yard TD on a smoke draw. Gervase also got turned inside-out by a double move for a 73-yard TD vs ISU with 5 minutes to go. Didn’t see this guy play much for PSU, and probably for good reason.)
19 S MILES TAYLOR (5-10, 203, Sr., Washington DC/Gonzaga Prep)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 47 safety in nation.
* Officially visited Iowa and Georgia Tech.
* Late January commitment, had sparse offers aside from Iowa and Ga Tech.
* Three-year starter.
+ Good open-field tackle on Barkley on a zone read handoff in 2Q, on a gain of 5.
- Beaten by aTD pass from 7 yards at the buzzer last week ona nod/post route to WR Juwan Johnson, turning Taylor inside-out.
ADD IT ALL UP
Iowa tackles better than Michigan State, and takes better care of the ball. That’s 80 pct of the way to victory, most Saturdays, unless Michigan State can suddenly improve its tackling and ball security. I’ll believe it when I see it.
I usually make predictions based on the body of work. It’s still early in the season so body of work is limited, but MSU’s body of work is suddenly a little light. Iowa has played better football than Michigan State, to this point.
Like last week, I think Michigan State goes into this game with an edge at QB. But last week’s “edge” at QB fizzled in MSU’s face. Lewerke had some good moments, some excellent moments actually, but it was negated by 14 points off of his turnovers.
This is a close match-up. Despite MSU’s advantages at WR and potential advantages in the passing game, Iowa seems to have slight edges in most other matchups, probably neutralizing the overall. This one will come down to mistakes and turnovers, like last week.
As for Iowa, I like the way the Hawkeyes came up with two or three big offensive plays at the end of the PSU game to take the lead. They did the same vs ISU. They are limited on offense but they have shown some crunch-time mettle on offense. That is a big plus in their body of work, and their mettle, a big plus in their hopes of pulling out this game.
In the recent glory seasons, Michigan State used to win with blocking, tackling and they didn’t beat themselves. That’s enough to be an 8-4 team. Throw in NFL talent at QB, RB, WR, d-end, and that made them a national top five program.
Is Michigan State ready to take steps toward becoming a team that blocks, tackles, covers and doesn’t beat themselves?
Well, the blocking part is right on schedule.
Coverage? Getting there, as long as the pass rush can be remain a threat and keep improving.
Tackling? I would expect improvement now that they are back into their routine.
I thought this would be a good tackling team this year and I think they’ll get there. Are they there right now? Like tomorrow? I don’t know, but the good news is that Iowa’s WRs and TEs aren’t world-beaters after the catch. Iowa’s offense doesn’t isolate guys in space all that often.
Is Michigan State ready to play football without beating themselves? No idea.
Which team is more likely to avoid mistakes and turnovers? Iowa.
Which team is more likely to make mistakes and be hurt by turnovers? Michigan State.
Is Michigan State ready to grow up and tighten up the operation and punch out this winnable game against a methodical, physical but unspectacular visitor? I haven’t seen that level of quality control out of Michigan State yet.
Michigan State is in close to a must-win situation. Lose this game and they’re staring down the barrell of a 2-3 start, headed toward its first out-of-state road trip to currently-unbeaten Minnesota.
Michigan State needs to come through in a winnable game RIGHT NOW. But Michigan State won’t win if they play like they did last week, and Iowa plays defense like they did last week in a loss at the buzzer to Penn State.
“We’re not broken,” Mark Dantonio said after the loss to Notre Dame. “We have guys that can make plays. I think our football team can win a lot of football games.”
I think he’s right. But not without tightening up their loose ends.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST:
* Iowa’s defense is good. Very good at d-line, very good at linebacker, very good vs the run at all four DB positions. Pass defense is what it usually is for Iowa: solid zone, good tackling out of the zone, closing the windows rapidly. But they get a little shoddy in man-to-man on third down sometimes.
Iowa’s defense didn’t look great against Iowa State in a shootout overtime win three weeks ago, and the Hawkeyes allowed some yards to Penn State. But Penn State’s offense is tremendous, and Iowa’s offense was terrible that night (thus PSU kept getting the ball back, had numerous possessions).
But I look at individuals and team play, and Iowa’s defense was excellent against PSU, despite the deceiving stats.
Penn State rolled up 579 yards of offense. But Iowa had only 11 first downs. PSU had 99 offensive plays, compared to 45 for Iowa.
An indictment of Iowa’s offense? To an extent yes. But PSU’s defense is outstanding. That team is loaded.
PSU averaged 5.8 yards per play last week. That’s the same that ND and Michigan State averaged against each other last week, and I don’t think anyone would say the Irish or Spartans ripped through the opposing defenses, and neither did PSU against Iowa. PSU just ALWAYS had the ball.
In those 99 plays, there were plenty of times when Iowa players won their plays, won their collisions, made strong hits, open-field tackles. But their tackling did wear down in the second half. They probably won’t have a wear-down problem against Michigan State because MSU’s offense isn’t as good as Penn State’s and Michigan State doesn’t run tempo very often. This will be a slug fest, not a sprint relay.
I think Iowa’s defense is getting stronger. They’ve made a change at safety and are much better back there now, after blowing some gaskets against North Texas and Iowa State.
* Iowa’s QB is limited. He is the consummate game manager, and he continues to get comfortable. Admitted to nervousness problems earlier in the year.
They don’t ask him to do a ton. He has put up numbers with easy passes, little checkdowns, little leak routes, bubble screens, short outs to the slot.
Defense needs to press forward, stop the run, challenge the underneath throws, make QB beat you downfield. That’s what Penn State did, and they stifled the Iowa offense. But Penn State’s defense is underrate. They run, hit, play square, tackle, disrupt. That Penn State team is much better than the score indicated.
* Iowa’s offensive line was supposed to be very good this year, possibly the best in the Big Ten, ranked among the national Top 10 o-lines in the preseason by Athlon’s. But they are not that.
Their pass protection looks good. But their trademark zone game, especially the outside zone, is not nearly as good as it’s been in the past.
From there, their tight ends are functional, but not nearly the matchup headaches they’ve been in the past.
At wide receiver, Iowa is still largely unproven, and of limited talent.
Michigan State has a big, big advantage in offensive skill at WR. Michigan State MUST capitalize on that advantage, one of the Spartans’ few advantages. That means Brian Lewerke needs to be a part of it and he needs to make sure he doesn’t squander a 300-plus yard day of passing with two or three giveaways. Michigan State OBVIOUSLY needs to end the ball security problem.
If Michigan State is a -1 in this game in turnovers, they will have a tough time winning. Minus-2, even more trouble. And Iowa is quite good at the turnover game. They forced two huge turnovers against PEnn State which kept them in the game, and then Iowa played excellent red zone defense, excellent ground defense inside the 5-yard line. Penn State missed two field goals (Iowa blocked one. Iowa also blocked a field goal against North Texas).
Iowa also had a big INT vs Iowa State with 5-minutes to go, returning it inside the 5-yard line for a game-tying field goal.
Iowa will turn you over. Their crafty zone defense puts those weird-named defensive players in your window for maddening INTs. Always have. Probably always will.
And their d-line tips A LOT of passes, which also increases the chances for INTs. And Brian Lewerke has had a little bit of trouble seeing through tall d-linemen at this stage in his career, sometimes pumping when a taller QB might be throwing. He has to figure that out, if possible.
ADD UP THE MATCHUPS
* IOWA RUN GAME VS MSU RUN DEFENSE:
Iowa RB Akrum Wadley is terrific, probably an NFL guy at 5-11 ,195. Shifty, physical enough, home run speed. He’s become quite dangerous as a receiver, on little leak routes, wheel route (alert! TD vs North Texas). He gets in the open field, he’s like Javon Ringer. He’s difficult.
HOWEVER, the o-line has not done a great job for him.
I think Michigan State can defeat the blocking up front. Iowa will have little, odd-timed wrinkles, like the big lead draw they spring late in the game last week.
But I think MSU’s defensive front will stand strong against Iowa’s trademark zone run scheme.
Michigan State needs to be better against the draw play. Iowa runs it well. Matt Morrissey was a step slow vs a sprint lead draw late in the third quarter, for a gain of 15. Iowa will see that on film. These are some of the loose screws that need to be tightened.
Throw in a missed tackle by Khari WIllis on the first play of the game, and missed tackles by Josh Butler, Brian Randle, Josiah Scott. Butler and Scott can tackle better than that.
Is Michigan State shoddy for the long-term in some of these areas, or was it a case of bye week rust? That bye week came at a terrible time for Michigan State and interrupted their development. Now they need to harness mid-season form, because ND was already there, and Iowa is too.
Iowa rushed for only 82 yards last week (although the 3.6 per carry average wasn’t bad).
Iowa rushed for 164 yards against Iowa State (4.0 per carry). Not bad. Not great. I would expect Michigan State to hold Iowa below 150. Anything below 125 and MSU’s chances of winning go up a great deal, as long as turnovers aren’t skewed.
Overall, I think Michigan State’s run defense should be fine in this matchup.
* IOWA PASS GAME vs MSU PASS DEFENSE
Iowa’s receivers are below standard. The QB, Sophomore Nate Stanley, is a game manager, not dynamic.
They have their little traits, like the fade in the red zone. But they don’t have much to “take the top off a defense,” deep. And they don’t ask him to drop and look far downfield. There have been times when he has done a decent job of moving safeties with his eyes. He doesn’t stare down receivers as much as ND’s Wimbush did earlier in the year.
Stanley put up big numbers against ISU, 333 yards, five TDs, but he didn’t make any challenging throws in that game, believe it or not. And he had a TD that was deflected at the line of scrimmage and wound up in the hands of a Hawkeye tight who wasn’t the intended receiver.
He’s solid. Not great. He doesn’t have great WRs to work with.
I’ll go out on a limb and say MSU’s pass defense is pretty good. The corners have been solvent. ND hit Matt Morrissey for a deep pass (behind a blitz that didn’t get home), and Michigan State is going to continue to have questions with safety matchups against some opponents, but I don’t think that’s the case vs Iowa. They don’t scare you.
* Michigan State allowed three deep passes last week. There was the one vs Morrissey on the first drive. Blitz didn’t get home. Having Morrissey on St. Brown wasn’t ideal, QB led him a little too much but St. Brown laid out to catch it. Big play, but missed tackles earlier in the drive, and MSU’s inability to get a stop in the red zone were of equal blame for that TD drive.
* The deep pass to the TE at the end of the first half, again an athletic TE laid out to make a diving catch. Overthrown a little bit. A talented receiver bailed him out. A week earlier, Wimbush misses both of these throws. But what about Michigan State? What happened on that coverage?
Well, Michigan State was in base quarters zone. The safeties were deep, probably too deep, and too late in reacting. Michigan State likes to try to keep things in front of them, while also playing their safeties closer to the box than most teams. However, I think Michigan State is playing safeties a little deeper this year, after all the beating Demetrious Cox and Montae Nicholson took over the last couple of years, and ND capitalized on that bigger window on this play. But barely.
Bad pass defense? Individually? Maybe not. Structurally, we’ll have to keep observing.
* The deep, juggling catch along the sideline vs Butler. Perfect pass, crazy-good catch to make the grab AND get a foot down at the 8-yard line. Good coverage by Butler. Not bad by Butler. Just football.
The deep passes weren’t a case of Michigan State individuals not being able to hang. Three passes, three great catches. Good defense on one of the three.
* Iowa’s bootleg roll game is not as good as it used to be, either, firstly because they don’t gash you with with outside zone anymore. They don’t make you lean toward that play, and then hit you with the counter bootleg roll pass off of it. First of all, the outside zone is not great. Secondly, the QB is not mobile, doesn’t throw well on the run, so that Kirk Ferentz staple has been marginalized (and don’t get it twisted. regardless of who the o-coordinator is at Iowa, the Hawkeyes will run 80 pct of the stuff they have always run, and approach the offensive game the way they always have under Kirk Ferentz. By the way, his son, Brian Ferentz, is a first-year o-coordinator for Iowa, in case you were interested).
Michigan State did not tackle well last week, especially on the perimeter. I think the bye week had a lot to do with that. Iowa’s WRs are not as difficult to tackle as ND’s. Wadley is a chore, though. But I expect MSU’s tackling to be improved, and team concepts to be good. I would be a little worried about the battering Joe Bachie took last week. Byron Bullough came in and played pretty well but was involved in a gap fit error that resulted in a 16-yard TD run for ND last week (Chris Frey was carved out of his gap on that play too, when ND showed a new-look trap).
Still, even with questions about Bachie’s ability to brawl for 15 rounds at this point, I like the chances of MSU’s defense to have a handle on the Iowa offensive puzzle for most of the day.
* MSU RUN GAME vs IOWA RUN DEFENSE
MSU’s run game is good, in theory. But we’ve not really seen it for real. I think the Michigan State run game was in the process of having a good day vs ND when LJ Scott fumbled at the goal line. That was a 14-yard TD run, taken away by the fumble. And it was done with a real nice counter trey, blocked well by Collin Lucas and David Beedle.
If that stands as a TD, Michigan State has punched back and cut the lead to 21-14, and done it in a physical way with a strong ground play. Michigan State rushed for 121 yards in the the first half. True, 50-plus were on a QB sneak. But Michigan State was in the process of having a 225-yard type of ground day, which would have set the stage for a great chance to win, if the turnover thing hadn’t mounted.
Instead of 21-14, with the defense on the field with momentum, it stayed 21-7. The next time Lewerke took a snap, his team was down 28-7 and the run game had become marginalized.
I like the way the Michigan State o-line is shaping up. But Iowa’s defensive front is excellent. This is a very good matchup, very good football will be played when Michigan State runs the ball vs this run defense.
They two-gap you on the d-line, so that will be different for MSU’s young o-line. It’s not tricky, it’s physical. Iowa d-linemen aren’t trying to shoot gaps and avoid blocks. They’re taking on blocks head-up, reading, and disengaging. It’s a physical, tiring brutal test for o-lines. Michigan State has established some depth on the o-line, but they’re all young guys. This will be some new medicine for them.
Iowa State rushed for 120 vs Iowa. I didn’t study how they went about it.
Penn State’s run game was contained in the first half, but the great Saquon Barkley got loose in the second half and ended up rushing for 212. PSU rushed for 295.
Those figures do not AT ALL indicate how well Iowa is CAPABLE of playing run defense.
I remember Iowa defenses in past years that were very, very good but the offense did nothing to complement their efforts, so the defense would end up getting hung out to dry in the fourth quarter, playing too many snaps, and would end up allowing more points per game that was indicative of the quality of that defense. I sense the same thing brewing for Iowa this year, if they can’t get their offense to hold up more of the bargain.
I think Iowa could contain MSU’s ground game for three quarters. From there, how well will Iowa’s defense do vs MSU’s ground game? Well, tell me how well Iowa’s offense is doing, and I’ll tell you that the Iowa defensive front would be fine, down-in and down-out against a potentially-good Michigan State ground game.
But there’s the rub. Is MSU’s ground game actually good, or still just potentially good? I think MSU’s run blocking has been better than the running back play, thus far.
Dantonio is challenging the run offense for more plays that break into the secondary, for longer run. Well, duh, yeah. And he’s right to call for it. The trick is making it happen. MSU’s o-line wasn’t great at sustaining blocks for the extra breakout in the first two games. But I didn’t see Michigan State blockers losing a lot of battles last week. I think Beedle, Higby, Chewins, Campbell are right on schedule if not ahead of schedule.
LJ Scott seemed to be running harder last week, and seemed to be on his way to a good game, then the fumble. And Michigan State didn’t have much punch at RB behind him when Gerald Holmes and Madre London came in. Granted, ND’s defensive front was pretty good. Iowa’s front seven is a little better against the run, in my opinion. Iowa doesn’t overrun the zone like ND did against Boston College. And Iowa’s d-ends, overall, are a tad better against the run than ND’s.
So I’ll give the edge to Iowa in this matchup, because I’m not going to try to market-time when MSU’s running backs are going to ratchet up.
* MSU PASS GAME vs IOWA PASS DEFENSE
For the second straight week, this SHOULD be the balance-tipper.
The game CAN be won at the line of scrimmage with the ground game. But if neither team carves out a consistent advantage on the ground, which I think is more than likely to be the case, then CAN Michigan State out-produce Iowa’s passing attack. Michigan State SHOULD be able to do it, based on MSU’s big edge in wide receiver skill and talent.
Iowa’s pass rush is pretty good, but they don’t sell out to come after you. They two-gap, then read to stop the run, then transition to pass rush, and somehow still press the pocket on you. But MSU’s pass pro has been pretty good. Chewins has been hailed for leading the Big Ten in pass blocking efficiency by Pro Football Focus. He was beaten once last week and had to commit a holding penalty. But he’s been good all year, and will get better.
Luke Campbell, good pass pro vs big, tough Jay Hayes last week, which will prepare him well for Iowa’s big d-ends. Campbell was also good vs No. 42’s spin move on third-and-17 in the third quarter last week.
Campbell began the fourth quarter at left tackle last week, which will help Chewins play harder and get breathers.
* Overall, Iowa presents some tricky puzzles with their zone defense, which might not look that great on film. But when QBs see it for the first time, the windows are deceptively tight.
Can Lewerke navigate against this trademark Iowa zone? It’s not the best Iowa pass defense of all time, but it’s plenty solid. Solid enough to fool a young QB who had a bad error last week in failing to read an easy-to-read four-deep zone. The pick-six Lewerke threw last week should have been thrown to the other side of the field, to the zone pass route side of the field. But he throw to the man-to-man route side of the field, against a zone, and the cloud-coverage CB read it all the way and even baited it a little.
Lewerke knows what he did wrong. He has good talent, good quick release, good mechanics, good zip, good accuracy, throws on time most of the time. He’s ready to take the next step as a QB from being pretty good to quite good. Handling his business against this zone defense is the next step.
He’ll see man-to-man on third downs against Iowa, which he is probably comfortable with. And he can tuck and run in those third-down situations.
Overall, can Michigan State win this portion of the game? Michigan State MUST win this portion of the game. Will they? You’ll begin to find out when I do.
* SPECIAL TEAMS
I usually don’t go into special teams much, but Michigan State should have a big edge in the punt game. If this becomes a defensive struggle, Michigan State could gain a 10-yard advantage on each punt exchange. MSU’s punter is very good. Iowa’s struggles.
THE MICRO:
First of all, Iowa is 3-1.
Results:
W vs Wyoming, 24-3
W at Iowa State, 44-41 (OT)
W vs North Texas, 31-14
L vs Penn State, 21-19
(Iowa State is 2-2, with a 17-7 loss to Texas last week. ISU beat Akron , 41-14, beat Northern Iowa, 42-24.)
(Wyoming is 2-2. Wyoming beat Gardner Webb 27-0, Lost to Oregon 49-13, beat Hawaii 28-21 in OT).
* It was a long time ago, but Iowa State looked so soft defensively at times in its game against Iowa that I had to look up ISU’s results to see what they’ve done in other games. I’m surprised to find that they held Texas to 17 points last week in a 17-7 loss. Stuff happens in early September that is hard to explain and doesn’t continue into the rest of the season. It’s just the way it is.
* Penn State out-gained Iowa 579-273. Penn State had two major turnovers that led directly to TDs (sound familiar?) including one right before halftime. Iowa capitalized with a 20-yard TD pass and, boom, Iowa led 7-5 at halftime despite being DOMINATED for the opening 30 minutes.
* Penn State moved the ball, but didn’t convert in the red zone, had the two expensive turnovers, missed two field goals, left Iowa in the game.
Iowa popped off two or three big offensive plays, and boom, led with one minute to go.
If it had been a boxing match, Penn State would have won the 12-round fight 10 rounds to two.
I came away very impressed with Penn State at all 22 positions.
* Defensively, PSU’s front seven overwhelmed an experienced Iowa o-line.
* Iowa RB Akrum Wadley netted -3 yards after his first 11 carries.
IOWA STUFF:
* New o-coordinator, Brian Ferentz. But some of the same old Kirk Ferentz hallmarks are in place, such as:
* Lots of use of a two-TE, balanced line. They run outside zone out of that formation.
* They love to hug the short side. If the ball is on a hash, and they are running the ball, 80-plus percent of the time, it’ll be to the short side. (Said the same thing about ND last week, and they continued to show that percentage). I have said the same thing about Iowa and the short side for years.
* They stupidly ran a counter toss in their own end zone last week against a d-line that had been winning up front, and guess what, PSU won on that play at tackled Wadley in the end zone for a safety and a 5-0 lead.
LAST WEEK:
* PSU stacked the box with 8 against Iowa’s I formation, challenged Stanley to beat them. He couldn’t quite do it.
* Iowa had a terrible time in the first half. Tried inside zone, outside zone, power, three-step drop fade, three-step drop slot out, and pocket passing. Virtually nothing worked.
* With 6 minutes to go in the first half, PSU had a 182-19 advantage in total offense, but the score was just 5-0.
* In the second half, PSU with a short field drive for a TD to go up 12-5. Barkley with runs of 25 and 20 on that drive and Iowa defense started to lose its fizz. The latter was just one of those jump-cut Barry Sanders jobs, eluding Jewell. Barkley amazing.
* PSU took control in the 3q with some dazzling Barkley runs. They finally got in the end zone with a 5-yard speed option pitch to Barkley, who out-raced the Iowa defense to the pylon. Barkley finally out-slicked Iowa often enough. Michigan State has no one like Barkley. I’m not sure any team in the country has someone like Barkley.
+ 3-6 with 10 minutes to go, Iowa QB passed to the RB Wadley on a flare route vs man to man green dog blitz. MLB for PSU, Babinga, who had had a great game, got turned inside out like Frey last week on third-and-goal. Wadley weaved his way through the secondary for a 70-yard TD, and this game was suddenly 15-13, with Iowa basically having had only three or four decent offensive plays all night.
* Then Iowa blocked a field goal. Then Iowa got the ball back and drove in the final two minutes to take the lead:
IOWA’S GO AHEAD TD DRIVE
* Deep post to TE Noah Fant drew pass interference.
(Earlier, i said Iowa doesn’t have a TE that can stetch you. Well, they saved it for this play and he drew a jersey tug, for interference. Good call. Fant is a sophomore. I’ll remain open-minded about him as a player. But he hasn’t struck me as a field-stretching mismatch type of TE. Maybe he COULD be that, if he had WR teammates who could command more safety attention).
+ Shallow crossing route to WR Smith-Marsette for 8 yards. (Smith-Marsette is a fast guy, just getting his feet wet)
+ Fade to WR VandeBerg to the short side for 22 yards, took a big hit and held on. Iowa had only had three or four or five offensive plays of more than 10 yards to that point. This was one of them, at crunch time. VandeBerg is not that fast off the line of scrimmage. He missed last year with an injury. Not a worrisome guy.
+ Sprint draw to Wadley for a 35-yard TD run. Great call because it was a run to the field side, something Iowa rarely does. And it was a type of draw play Iowa had not shown all night. They saved it as a new-look wrinkle, and popped it for a home run. Iowa’s play design and execution had looked horrible all night, and then in this two-minute drill they had a play or two that made them look like the New England Patriots. TD put them up 20-15 with 1:42 left.
PSU GAME WINNING DRIVE: Three freelance plays by Sorley made the difference.
* PSU converted a fourth-and-2 with a slant with :53 left at midfield.
* QB scramble vs man to man nickel gained 16.
* Freelance scramble rules go route pass for 16 yards to the 24-yard line.
* QB pressured dump off valve to barkley for 14 yards to the 10-yard line. Evaded LB Josey Jewell. QB barely avoided QB sack, took a hit to make the freelance pass.
* TD pass from 7 yards at the buzzer. A nod/post route to WR Juwan Johnson vs Iowa’s safety, turning Miles Taylor inside-out.
IOWA TRENDS & SCHEMES: OFFENSE
* Iowa lacks a WR who can take the lid off a defense (meaning they lack a proven deep threat). Tried to go deep to VandeBerg twice last week and he just doesn’t have the juice to set up a double move and change speeds. The freshman has some promise, but the key word here is “proven deep threat.” They tried VandeBerg. He ain’t it.
* As strong as their o-line is supposed to be, I haven’t seen great run blocking from them as of yet. Their outside zone is not as good as it usually is, with multiple players failing to be the road graders they usually have for that play.
* They use the bubble screen more than I remember Iowa teams in the past. They use it to WR 84 Easley somewhat well.
* I don’t remember the wheel route being part of the narrow Iowa package in the past, but they hit one to Wadley for a 74-yard TD vs North Texas. They caught North Texas in a man-to-man blitz for that one, so it wasn’t against the Michigan State quarters zone, but Michigan State needs to be on wheel route alert for Wadley. But the play was flagged for high-step taunting, walking it back to the 21-yard line. Iowa scored later.
ALERTS
* They love to run to the short side of the field, probably favoring it 80 pct of the time, and it’s been that way for at least 15 years.
* Two tight ends, balanced line, one wide out to each side, they love the outside zone out of that look. Have for years. BUT you don’t see the counter boot pass out of this look AS MUCH as they used to. Stanley doesn’t seem to be mobile enough to give them that staple this year.
They’ll do it a little, and it’s kind of awkward.
Stanley attempted a waggle roll on second and goal from the 12 vs North Texas, but looked slow doing it, didn’t find anyone open, tucked and ran for a gain of 4. (Waggle roll meaning it was play-action, and he rolled in the direction of the flow of the o-line blocking rather than bootlegging naked against the o-line flow). And this was out of shot gun, rather than Iowa’s usual hard run fake from under center.
They did manage a slow-developing counter boot to TE 39 Nate Wieting. They peeled the TE out on sort of a sneak route for an 17-yard play to the 1-yard line. Ball was caught at the line of scrimmage.
* On third downs, they seem to like the “mesh concept,” a three-WR shallow criss-cross combination. Keeping it simple.
GAME-TYING DRIVE IN TWO-MINUTE VS IOWA STATE:
* It all amounted to a simple little circle/leak route to RB Wadley for a 46-yard TD catch and run. He caught the ball at the line of scrimmage, 41 yards after contact, broke four tackles to score with 1:10 remaining.
INSIDE IOWA’S PERSONNEL:
QUARTERBACK:
4 NATE STANLEY (6-5, 212, Soph., Menomonie, Wis.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 7 in Wisconsin.
* Also had an offer from Wisconsin.
* Season stats: 61 pct (64 of 105), 846 yards. 12 TDs, 1 INT.
Michigan State d-ends coach Mark Snyder on Stanley: “He manages the game. I mean, he plays within himself. He doesn’t try to do anything, in my opinion, that he can’t do. He knows his limitations and he knows his strengths, and I think he plays to his strengths. And that goes back to that game management. I think the coaches know, and I think the quarterback understands what the coaches want.”
= Was 16 of 27 for 197 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs vs North Texas. One of the TDs was a fortunate tipped situation type of pass.
= Was 13 of 22 for 191 yards and 2 TDs vs PSU, with a 50.4 QB Rating.
* Battled through some nerves earlier this season.
plusses and minuses in the notebook:
- Missed VandeBerg very high on square-in on first pass of the game vs PSU.
- Antsy in the pocket vs PSU blitzes on third-and-long.
- Missed VandeBerg on a shallow cross on 1-10 in the 2Q last week, throwing behind him.
+ TD to slot WR Nick Easley (84) on a skinny post-corner. That was right before the half, after an INT. Stanley good job of looking off the safety. That’s something he does well, moves safeties with his eyes.
- Missed high for Easley (84) on a corner route on first play of drive after PSU took a 15-7 lead. Tip-drill INT overturned, luckily. That was a bad pass. Inaccurate to an open WR.
- Threw behind WR Easley on first play of game vs North Texas, but Easley twisted and caught it for gain of 9. Out route to the field.
+ Good out route to Easley to the right (field side) in 1Q vs North Texas. Three-step drop, easy throw vs off coverage.
+ Bubble screen to Easley for what should have been a 7-yard TD vs North Texas. Easy pass vs soft slot coverage. Not a difficult read or throw for Stanley. But Easley fumbled at the goal line.
+ Throws a decent fade to the short side (TD vs Iowa State, 15 yards to No. 6, Smith-Marsette).
+ Game winning TD pass in OT vs ISU: 5-yard sprint out pass to Smith-Marsette. Nothing difficult. Game manager.
RUNNING BACK
25 RB AKRUM WADLEY (5-11, 195, Sr., Newark, NJ)
* Was a 5.2, two-star recruit, unranked in New Jersey.
* Also had an offer from Temple. Committed on signing day after making only one visit, to Iowa, two days prior to signing day.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year. 1,081 yards. 10 TDs.
* Had a TD negated by a high step personal foul.
Stats this year:
116 yards (24 carries) vs Wyoming
118 yards (28) vs Iowa State
24 yards (8) vs North Texas State. Benched after being flagged for high-stepping penalty which negated at TD.
80 yards (19 carries) vs Penn State.
* Had four straight 100-yard rush games prior to the North Texas game. Had 24 yards on eight carries in that game, and a team-high 80 yards receiving on two catches. Had a 68-yard catch on that game.
* Toss sweep with C and RT pulling, no gain on a 2-10 last week, loss of 2 actually.
* 5-yard catch on a play action waggle to the flat, just trying to complete a pass. Didn’t get much.
+ Popped off an 18-yard run on a lead draw on the last play of the 3q last week. Finally found a run play that worked.
* They tried it again five players later, gained 5 yards.
+ 15 yard gain on a delay lead draw early vs North Texas.
++ 74-yard TD reception on a wheel route vs man-to-man against North Texas. But the play was flagged for high-step taunting, walking it back to the 21-yard line. Iowa scored later.
21 RB TOREN YOUNG (5-11, 220, R-Fr., Monona Grove, Wis.)
* Had 78 yards on 19 carries against North Texas
* Has not played in the other games.
* 5.6 3-star recruit, No. 8 in Wisconsin.
* No other offers or visits.
* I have no opinion on him. Haven’t seen him.
21 RB IVORY KELLY-MARTIN (5-11, 195, Fr., Plainfield, Ill.)
* Had 74 yards on 11 carries vs North Texas.
* No opinion.
FB 45 DRAKE KULICK (6-1, 240, Sr., Muscatine, Iowa)
* He looks like a Drake Kulick.
* Was a two-star walk-on, had an offer from Northern Iowa.
* Solid FB but I wouldn’t say he’s a difference-maker. Had a 26-yard reception vs ISU, turning a little dump-off into a rambling gainer.
WIDE RECEIVERS
89 WR MATT VANDEBERG (6-1, 195, Sr., Brandon, SD).
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit, unranked. Had only one major offer.
* Iowa’s only returning player who had caught a pass in college.
* 10 catches, 107 yards, possession receiver although they try to stretch the field with him but can’t quite get much out of it.
- Dropped short out route on 1-10 last week.
= Average take-off on a deep fade attempt vs press (8 man front) on second-and-10 late in the 1Q last week, INC.
+ TD 18 yards vs ISU on fade. Again, mediocre acceleration off the line, but accelerated better in the next 10 yards. Mediocre press coverage by ISU.
Stats this year:
2 catches, 19 yards vs Wyoming.
3 catches, 42 yards vs ISU
3 catches, 19 yards vs North Texas
2 catches, 27 yards vs PSU.
Hasn’t been much of a threat.
Had 65 catches in 2015 (4 TDs).
Played four games last year and had 19 catches and was then lost for the season.
84 NICK EASLEY (5-11, 203, Jr., Newton, Iowa).
* Joned the program in January. Walk-on, juco transfer from Iowa Western CC.
* Was set to go to Iowa State, but Iowa got in on him late. His mother works at U of Iowa, and he had no trouble de-committing from ISU to enroll at Iowa.
18 catches, 189 yards, 3 TDs.
+21-yard TD catch vs PSU last week at the end of the 1H, nice leaping grab.
+ 10 yard TD vs ISU on bubble. He was in the slot, free release. Two-TE formation, easy pitch and catch, decent run after catch.
- Fumbled at the goal line after catching a bubble screen vs North Texas. Easy pass vs soft slot coverage.
6 WR HMIR SMITH-MARSETTE (6-2, 175, Fr., Newark, NJ)
* 5.5 three-star recruit.
* No. 27 in New Jersey.
* Also visited Minnesota and Rutgers.
* Fast.
- Dropped a shallow cross on 3-7 last week. On a three-man mesh route (crossing) flagged as being a pick play.
+ Leaping catch on deep slant-and-go last week in the 3q for 28 yards. QB barely got the high touch pass off.
+ TD on 15 yard hitch/fade combination vs ISU, lay out to make the diving catch. Cut ISU’s lead to 31-28.
TIGHT ENDS
* Iowa loves to target the TEs on third down and in the red zone.
TE 87 NOAH FANT (6-5, 232, Soph., Omaha)
* Was a 5.7 three-star recruit.
* No. 1 in Nebraska, No. 26 TE in nation.
* Had offers from ASU, Cal, ISU, Minnesota, Nebraska, UCLA, Vanderbilt.
Game stats this year:
vs Wyoming, 2 catches, 29 yards
vs ISU 3 catches, 30 yards
vs North Texas, 2 catches 30 yards
vs PSU, 1 catch 13 yards
Last year: 9 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD.
+ third-and-10, found TE 87 in man-to-man on curl in tight coverage. O-line picked up a five-man rush, for gain of 13.
+ Gain of 5 on a bubble on fourth-and-three vs North Texas, out of a bunch. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bubble screen to a tight end, much less from a tight bunch formation. Creative, but speaks to their lack of trusted athletes at WR.
TE 38 TJ HOCKENSON (6-5, 243, R-Fr., Chariton, Iowa)
* 5.5 three-star recruit, No. 5 in Iowa.
* Had offers from Iowa, ISU.
* Is getting a lot of playing time, as Iowa likes to use a two-TE personnel group, but I’m not sure he is up to their usual standard right now.
+ Skinny post for about 20 yards vs ISU vs soft MOFO (two deep, middle of field open) zone. Decent job by QB to see it and throw it. Not much resistance here.
* Didn’t notice him much, other than seeming confused on the first play of the 2H with Wadley getting stopped for a loss of 3 on a zone play.
= Tried to go deep to him, to the short side of the field, on a deep fly route, but PSU DB covered it easily. Iowa tipped off that something strange was coming. Iowa went with three WRs to the field, and had a TE attached to the short side. They NEVER use that formation. A an uncommon formation is a tipoff that an uncommon play is coming. For Iowa, a deep route to 38 as the only WR on that side of the field was a strange play. PSU was all over it.
And that’s about as far as Iowa will go in the trick department. And it wasn’t really a trick.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Iowa is supposed to have, arguably, the best o-line in the Big Ten. But they created zero room to run vs PSU in the first half last week. I’m not sure if that means Iowa isn’t so great, or that Penn State’s defensive front it excellent. I’m leaning toward the latter.
* As good as their o-line was supposed to be, and as good as they’ve been for decades with outside zone runs, I have been surprised to find that they have have NOT shown that they block that trademark play all that well this year.
* The Iowa linemen seemed like they ran and moved well on zone plays and were physical. But PSU’s defensive front ran better and was more physical. PSU’s defense was very impressive. Quick, fast and physical at d-line, ran well and tackled at LB, and their DBs really played quick and correct against the run. Sheesh. Damn.
Then I put in the North Texas film and I saw the same o-linemen getting whapped back when trying to zone block.
* PSU LBs did not respect play action, overplayed the run, didn’t fear Iowa play pass. Can Michigan State take a cue from that and flow LBs fast, stuff the run, put it on the QB?
LT 77 ALARIC JACKSON (6-7, 320, R-Fr., Detroit Renaissance)
* Michigander. Michigan State tried to get him late. He stuck with Iowa.
* 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 33 in Michigan.
* Visited Iowa and Iowa State.
* Apparently had offers from Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin.
* He’s okay, has a good future, but I don’t think he would be starting for Michigan State right now ahead of Luke Campbell.
- Smacked backward badly by PSU DT Curtis Cothran last week on a zone play to the other side.
* Solid future, but I don’t think he is up to the Iowa standard right now, either.
* I didn’t get a good look at him in pass protection, but I didn’t notice him getting beat.
LG 52 BOONE MYERS (6-5, 310, Sr., Webster City, Iowa)
* Three-year starter, and started a little bit as a freshman
* No opinion.
* Zero stars, former walk-on.
* Was third-team all-state.
* Defensive MVP for the North in the Iowa North-South All-Star Game.
* All-Conference in basketball, four letters in track.
(back-up LG 59 Ross Reynolds, 6-4, 300, Waukee, Iowa)
- Got pushed back a foot on an inside zone late in the 1Q last week for no gain.
C 78 JAMES DANIELS (6-4, 295, Jr., Warren, Ohio)
* Four-star recruit, No. 14 in Ohio, No. 4 center in the nation.
* July commitment, no other official visits.
* Had offers from Michigan State, UM, MIami, Auburn, apparently Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin.
* Third-team All-Big Ten, now that I look up his bio. That surprises me because any time I noticed him against PSU, he was struggling.
- double team of Daniels and Render was beaten back a yard by PSU DT Curtis Cothran. It’s one thing to hold a double-team to no movement, it’s another thing to just flat out split a double team and penetrate two yards into the backfield. Cothran’s penetration cleared the way for a stunting DE to get a TFL on Wadley, causing boos from Kinnick Stadium crowd.
+ Finally a plus play by an o-lineman, took 2 and a half quarters to see one vs PSU, but Daniels crossed the face of a DT, sealed him inside to win the gap and give Wadley room for a modest 9-yard gain and a first down. Plant a flag.
- Beaten back when snapping and pulling on a zone to the short side in the 1q vs North Texas.
- Beaten back on an outside zone to the short side for a loss of 5 vs North Texas, in the red zone.
RG 69 KEEGAN RENDER (6-4, 310, Jr., Indianola, Iowa)
* 5.5, three-star recruit, No. 7 in Iowa.
* Had offers from Iowa, ISU, directionals.
* Two-year starter.
* Beaten for QB hit early in 3q last week.
- Belted backward on an outside zone to the short side, his side, late in 1Q vs North Texas, enabling MLB to scrape and tackle for no gain.
+ Good mobility on inside zone vs ISU in the first quarter, 25-yarder. Reached to his zone, had no one there, angled back to cut off a linebacker. Athletic feet on that one.
RT 79 SEAN WELSH (6-3, 295, Sr., Springboro, Ohio)
* Was 5.6 three-star recruit. No. 43 in Ohio, No. 32 OG in the nation.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year. Honorable mention All-Big Ten as a sophomore.
* June commitment had offers from Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas, West Virginia.
- Got whapped back by second-string DE Kevin Givens at point of attack on an outside zone that went nowhere, on a 2-7 in the second quarter last week.
* veteran o-lineman who became the starting RT when Ike Boettger was lost to an achilles on Sept. 9. Formerly Welsh was a starting RG. Boettger was a three-year starter.
- Not great on a zone to his side, short side, early in North Texas game.
[THAT’s a LOT of minus signs for an Iowa offensive line, after watching them for six quarters. If I had more time, I would go back and watch them against ISU to see what their zone plays looked like against the Cyclones, but their run game stats weren’t great on that day, either.]
IOWA DEFENSE
* Defensive ends are the strength of the team. 98 Anthony Nelson looks like their best player, perhaps outside of Wadley. Back-up DE 94 AJ Epenesa is a five-star recruit, true freshman, with NFL written all over him. He can wheel.
* Batted down four passes in the 1H vs PSU last week.
* Stout against the run, tight coverage windows in cover-two zone. But they still play man-to-man on third downs, which I don’t think suits them well.
* Not a high-pct blitz team, but they’ll bring the occasional short-side corner, the occasional two-LB cross inside cross blitz. They blitzed a CB three times in the 1H vs PSU. Their favorite blitz is bringing the two ILBs, usually on a cross blitz, very much like Michigan State.
* Mainly two-deep zone. They’ll rock-and-roll the safeties into cover-three (without blitzing) at times.
WHAT MIGHT WORK AGAINST IOWA:
* LEWERKE QB DRAW OR SCRAMBLE: PSU caught Iowa in man-to-man on one occasion and Sorley scrambled for about 25 (called back for holding). Iowa doesn’t allow much open-field running, but QB auto keeper when seeing man-to-man could be something Lewerke has open to him on a third and medium.
* On a critical third-and-1 with 5 minutes left, Sorley audibled to a sprint out pass into the flat to Barkley. It gained about 15 yards. The audible, the moxie of Sorley. Michigan State is going to need some of that from Lewerke. Does he have the freedom to audible? Michigan State QBs usually do, but does he feel comfortable with it? Against this defense, you’d better set it up so that your QB has the chalk last. Is Lewerke there yet? You’ll find out when I do.
WATCH OUT FOR THIS:
SHORT YARDAGE DEFENSE
* Iowa goes to one-gapping when inside the 2-yard line and stuffed PSU with it last week. They go with a Bear front while one-gapping, which is kind of rare. Usually Bear front teams will two-gap out of a 30. Iowa is a base two-gap 40 team that switches to one-gapping in short yardage.
Anyway, they are very tough inside the 2-yard line. Michigan State has a penchant for foolishly wanting to prove its manhood against stout goal line defenses (see the UM game last year. UM was strong enough against the run when two-gapping, and even stronger when doing it with a 6-man defensive line in a goal line situation. Michigan State shouldn’t have tried it. I give Dantonio credit for being Dantonio, but I didn’t like that matchup inside the 5-yard line last year vs Michigan. Iowa isn’t as good as Michigan, but they stiffen inside the 5.)
Why bring that stuff up? Well, I see a combination that could lead to Michigan State falling prey to another good goal line defense, and turning it over on downs at some point with a pair of stuff interior runs.
DEFENSIVE LINE
DE 98 ANTHONY NELSON (6-7, 260, Soph. ,Urbandale, Iowa)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 4 in Iowa.
* Committed two weeks prior to signing day, also had offers fro ISU and directionals.
* Terrific, terrific looking d-end. Standout on the rise.
* Had 7 sacks last year as a reserve.
* Has 2.5 sacks so far this year.
* Mostly plays LDE, and will match up against Luke Campbell. Campbell has been pretty good (very good for a rookie). But Nelson will win more than he loses against Michigan State.
* Nelson will move to RDE when 90 Brincks comes into the game. So Cole Chewins will see him too, in a battle of two of the best sophomores at their position in the Big Ten and maybe the nation.
* Strong in playing the two-gap, has long arms to disengage and transition to the pass rush, and has the hip and ankle flex to turn the corner toward the QB.
+ 1.5 sacks against PSU.
+ Very good at the two-gap, then disengage when transitioning to the pass rush, then ran the hoop for a sack in the 1Q last week.
* Sack last week on a bull rush, putting Penn State RT Chasz Wright (a pretty good second-year starter) on skates, pushing him backward into the pocket.
* Batted down two passes in the first half last week.
+ Blocked a field goal with 2:44 left to keep Iowa within 15-13, setting the stage for their go-ahead score.
+ Batted down a third down pass with :04 seconds left.
(90 DE Sam Brincks, 6-5, 270, Jr., Carroll, Iowa)
* Would start for a lot of teams.
+ Nice TFL on Barkley in the 2Q, two-gap, read, disengage, finished the tackle.
+ Hit QB McSorley, causing INT by Jewell late in 1H, setting up a short TD and a sudden 7-5 hafltime lead for Iowa.
DE 40 PARKER HESSE (6-3, 257, Jr., Waukon, Iowa)
* 5.4 two-star recruit, No. 8 in Iowa.
* Offers from Iowa and directionals.
* Was a 205-pound LB in high school.
* HM All-Big Ten by coaches last year. 8 TFLs and 5 sacks last year.
+ INT vs ISU with 6 minutes to go set up game-tying FG. Was jumping to bat the pass, ended up intercepted a poor circle route. Iowa had first and goal, couldn’t score a TD.
DE 94 AJ EPENESA (6-5, 270, Glen Carbon, Ill.)
* Five-star recruit, No. 1 in Illinois, No. 1 strongside DE in the nation.
* Gets quite a bit of snaps, but not a ton. Seems like he should play more. He just looks like he’s at a different level when he’s on the field.
+ 2.5 sacks this year. Forced a fumble last week.
+ Push-and-pull beat the PSU right tackle, converged with NFL quickness, hit the QB for a fumble, recovered by Iowa, at midfield, when it looked like PSU was one play away from breaking it open. (PSU with three deep routes on that play by the way. Too much time in the pocket waiting for those to take shape. Last year they famously sent three, four receivers deep, even in the face of blitzes, and always seemed to get the pass away.”
(Parker Hesse)
99 RDT NATHAN BAZATA (6-2, 287, Sr., Howells, Neb.)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, No. 3 in Nebraska.
* Had no other offers.
* Quality player.
* Three-year starter.
* HM All-Big Ten last year by media.
+ Good job getting off LG to make a tackle on Barkley for a gain of 1 late in the 1Q last week.
+ Penetrated as a one-gapper in short yardage to halt a third-and-2 with 11:45 left in the game and Iowa down 15-7. He penetrated and DE 40 Hesse got off a block to assist on the tackle, forcing a 3-and-out after Iowa had missed a field goal.
95 LDT CEDRICK LATTIMORE (6-5, 295, Soph., Redford, Mich./East English Village Prep)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 15 in Michigan, No. 33 strong side DE.
* Had offers from Iowa, Michigan State and MACs.
* Had one tackle last year.
= Not great about double-teams.
* Plays the tilted DT, the George Perles invention.
- Not the sturdiest DT they’ve ever had.
(96, Matt Nelson, 6-8, 285, Jr., Cedar Rapids, back-up, no opinion)
++ Nelson and Bazata two-gapped their guy and got off to assist on a tackle on Barkley on second-and-2 with 9 minutes to play, holding him to a gain of 1. Man-sized play by the Iowa DTs. Then PSU false start on third-and-one, but picked up third-and-6 on a flare pass to Barkley.
LINEBACKERS
* We know how good Josey Jewell is. But Bower and Niemann were better than Bower in the first half last week. Good gosh.
* Jewell and Bower are QUICK and direct.
43 MLB JOSEY JEWELL (6-2, 236, Sr., Decorah, Iowa)
* Was 5.3 two-star recruit, unranked.
* Had offers from Iowa and Northern Iowa. Took an official visit to Northern Iowa.
* One of five Butkus Award finalists last year.
* Second team All-Big Ten in 2016, and ’15.
+ 16 tackles vs PSU.
+ Batted down a pass on an RPO, reading the mesh, kept coming forward, batted it down. “They’re good against RPOs,” said Brian Lewerke.
+ Excellent, excellent lateral movement in mirroring McSorley on a zone read last week. Moved his feet like a basketball defender.
+ Used that great basketball slide lateral movement (shuffle stacking, I think is what Saban used to call it) in hemming in Sorley for no gain on a second-and-goal at the 2.
+ Great defense on third-and-8 in the red zone with 2:55 left. He came on a blitz, read a shovel pass to Barkley, transitioned to the edge and closed in on Barkley before he could get loose. It took a great read and great quickness and a good tackle by Jewell. That was a first-team All-Big Ten type of play.
41 ILB BO BOWER (6-2, 235, Sr., West Branch, Iowa)
* Former walk-on.
* 5.3 two-star recruit, unranked. Had an offer from Northern Iowa. No offer from Iowa but visited a week before signing day.
* Three-year starter.
* plays FAST, especially for a big, bulky guy.
+ Stiff tackle on QB on fourth-and-2 keeper in the first quarter for a stoppage.
+ great, fast buzz coverage on the TE on a fourth-and-short stoppage in the 2Q. Bower had the buzz coverage to the flat with the Iowa CB having blitzed. Bower took Gisicki away. Big-time coverage by Bower.
- Missed a tackle with 40 on Barkley, who squirted away and down the sidelines for a gain of 25 early in the 2H.
44 SLOT LB BEN NIEMANN (6-2, 230, Sr., Sycamore, Ill.)
* 5.4 three-star recruit, No. 50 in Illinois.
* July commitment, had offers from MACs.
* Three-year starter.
* Was HM All-Big Ten by coaches as a sophomore in 2015.
* Seems out of place in defensing the slot, but many Iowa slot LBs have looked out of place there, and all that they do is get the job done.
They usually keep him on the field in passing situations. If you can match up with him man to man, in theory, you should get a good matchup. But I feel like I say that every year about Iowa’s slot LB, and still have nightmares about AJ Edds.
+ Second on the team in tackles.
- Missed a tackle on PSU TE Gisick in 3-6 out route for a first down in the red zone, setting up a TD and a 15-7 PSU lead .
+ Puts WR blockers on skates, backward to bounce plays.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
- Hooker and Rugamba missed tackles when Barkley made another crazy Barry Sander cut for 44 yards midway through the third quarter.
* As well as Iowa’s safeties tackled in the first half vs PSU, two Hawkeye safeties missed tackles on a 48-yard TD run allowed to North Texas (but No. 27 wasn’t on the field for that one).
15 LCB JOSHUA JACKSON (6-1, 185, Soph., Corinth, Texas).
* Was a two-star recruit with offers from Colorado State, Nevada and New Mexico State.
* 2 INTs, 7 pass break-ups.
+ Very good coverage on a corner fade from the 2-yard line on third-and-goal vs 6-foot-4 Juwan Johnson of PSU. Pass break-up, forced a field goal which gave PSU an 8-7 lead.
- Allowed 29-yard TD run on fourth-and-one vs ISU. He slipped and fell while defending a go route. Iowa blitzed, had no safeties back. Zero blitz.
5 RCB EMMANUEL RUGAMBA (6-0, 185, Soph., Naperville, Ill.)
* was a 5.7 3-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in Illinois.
+ Drew a holding penalty on an outside run in the first quarter last week, played the angle correctly and the WR had to hold him.
+ Good coverage vs Blacknall last week on a deep post in the 1Q. Rugamba was in bailing quarters, turned and matched the route step-for-step.
+ Plays the run real well to his side, setting the edge, defeating WR blocks
+ Physical, full-tilt sweep tackle vs TE Gisicki, coming out of cover-two zone.
27 S AMANI HOOKER (6-0, 210, Minneapolis)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 6 in Minnesota, No. 55 safety in nation.
* June commitment had offers from mid-majors.
* 13 tackles vs PSU.
* Rising standout.
+ Excellent tackle on Barkley on a swing pass on the opening drive to force a fourth-and-2.
+ Good tackle on Barkley on first play of the game last week, swing pass, scraping at a good angle, sound tackle.
+ Great open-field tackle on Barkley late in the 1Q.
+ Excellent pass break-up on a third-and-medium deep fade in the 2Q, behind press/man/blitz. PSU trying to beat a blitz deep. Hooker equal to the task.
(30 Jaek Gervase missed a tackle vs North Texas, resulting in a 48-yard TD on a smoke draw. Gervase also got turned inside-out by a double move for a 73-yard TD vs ISU with 5 minutes to go. Didn’t see this guy play much for PSU, and probably for good reason.)
19 S MILES TAYLOR (5-10, 203, Sr., Washington DC/Gonzaga Prep)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 47 safety in nation.
* Officially visited Iowa and Georgia Tech.
* Late January commitment, had sparse offers aside from Iowa and Ga Tech.
* Three-year starter.
+ Good open-field tackle on Barkley on a zone read handoff in 2Q, on a gain of 5.
- Beaten by aTD pass from 7 yards at the buzzer last week ona nod/post route to WR Juwan Johnson, turning Taylor inside-out.
ADD IT ALL UP
Iowa tackles better than Michigan State, and takes better care of the ball. That’s 80 pct of the way to victory, most Saturdays, unless Michigan State can suddenly improve its tackling and ball security. I’ll believe it when I see it.
I usually make predictions based on the body of work. It’s still early in the season so body of work is limited, but MSU’s body of work is suddenly a little light. Iowa has played better football than Michigan State, to this point.
Like last week, I think Michigan State goes into this game with an edge at QB. But last week’s “edge” at QB fizzled in MSU’s face. Lewerke had some good moments, some excellent moments actually, but it was negated by 14 points off of his turnovers.
This is a close match-up. Despite MSU’s advantages at WR and potential advantages in the passing game, Iowa seems to have slight edges in most other matchups, probably neutralizing the overall. This one will come down to mistakes and turnovers, like last week.
As for Iowa, I like the way the Hawkeyes came up with two or three big offensive plays at the end of the PSU game to take the lead. They did the same vs ISU. They are limited on offense but they have shown some crunch-time mettle on offense. That is a big plus in their body of work, and their mettle, a big plus in their hopes of pulling out this game.
In the recent glory seasons, Michigan State used to win with blocking, tackling and they didn’t beat themselves. That’s enough to be an 8-4 team. Throw in NFL talent at QB, RB, WR, d-end, and that made them a national top five program.
Is Michigan State ready to take steps toward becoming a team that blocks, tackles, covers and doesn’t beat themselves?
Well, the blocking part is right on schedule.
Coverage? Getting there, as long as the pass rush can be remain a threat and keep improving.
Tackling? I would expect improvement now that they are back into their routine.
I thought this would be a good tackling team this year and I think they’ll get there. Are they there right now? Like tomorrow? I don’t know, but the good news is that Iowa’s WRs and TEs aren’t world-beaters after the catch. Iowa’s offense doesn’t isolate guys in space all that often.
Is Michigan State ready to play football without beating themselves? No idea.
Which team is more likely to avoid mistakes and turnovers? Iowa.
Which team is more likely to make mistakes and be hurt by turnovers? Michigan State.
Is Michigan State ready to grow up and tighten up the operation and punch out this winnable game against a methodical, physical but unspectacular visitor? I haven’t seen that level of quality control out of Michigan State yet.
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