Pre-Snap Read: MSU vs Penn State
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
EAST LANSING - This is Penn State’s game to win or lose.
What I mean by that is Penn State has the personnel and material to take care of business on the road and put this game in the win column, possibly by a tight margin, if they have prepared hard all week, play hard on Saturday and capitalize on opportunities.
But, like I’ve been saying all week, they had better pack a lunch, because Michigan State stark-raving hates them, from the coaches on down, and there’s a chance Michigan State might shake off last week’s loss, learn from it, build on it and play a sharp, balanced 60 minutes of football. Real good chance Michigan State answers the bell in good fashion in this game. So it’s up to Penn State to have no hangover from last week’s loss at Ohio State, and it’s up to Penn State to improve upon last week’s game, because Penn State really struggled in a lot of ways against Ohio State.
These are the things I’m wondering heading into this game:
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST:
* Is Penn State’s offensive line as bad as it looked last week against OSU? Penn State’s o-line was a weakness for the first half of the season. Then they had a bye week and duct-taped things together against Michigan, thanks to some good game-planning to take advantage of Michigan’s man-to-man and over-pursuit.
But then the o-line was back to being bad last week, and they lost a starting offensive tackle in the process. His status is unknown for this week’s game. His replacement, No. 77 at right tackle, would be the No. 4 o-tackle, at best, if he played for Michigan State. He is not good. He’s a weakness.
How much of that was OSU’s defensive front? Some of it. But Michigan State is pretty good on the defensive front too, and Michigan State is fully capable of winning in the trenches when on defense.
* PSU has had trouble establishing the run vs Ohio State and Northwestern. If I’m Michigan State, I’m disappointed if I let PSU rush for more than 90 yards. It’s well within MSU’s capacity to shut down the run like they did last week, and the task is somewhat similar. RB Barkley is better than Justin Jackson, but Jackson had better blocking.
* From there, PSU has terrific skill at QB, WRs and TE. They ripped Michigan with fades and jumpballs vs press man-to-man, throwing to RB Barkley, mismatch TE Gesicki, and terrific slot WR Hamilton (at 6-1, 206 he is Penn State’s all-time leading pass catcher with 189 receptions). PSU receivers made some difficult catches in traffic against pretty good coverage, although UM LB McCray wasn’t fast enough to cover Barkley.
Michigan State will get tested with corner fades to Hamilton and jumpball corner routes to big 6-foot-6, high-jumping Gesicki, and wheel routes to Barkley.
OSU had speed at LB to cover Barkley. Does Michigan State have that kind of speed? Well, Michigan State won’t be in man-to-man 90 pct of the time like UM was, so PSU won’t be able to cherry pick the matchups as definitively.
OSU played zone, I would estimate, about 85 pct of the time. PSU had limited time to throw, no run game. Because OSU was playing zone, there weren’t quite as many opportunities for 50-50 balls and fades and jump balls.
They didn’t go deep for Gesicki or Hamilton more than two or three times total. That’s strange because PSU went deep like crazy against everybody last year, including vs. MSU’s zone last year (admittedly, MSU’s zone wasn’t skitzo last year).
But still, PSU looked strange from a play-choice standpoint against OSU, not willing to go deep as much. (OSU intercepted two passes in the end zone, but one was overturned due to pass interference, and the other was overturned and ruled a TD by replay officials).
* Okay, I probably need to stop and explain some things. The PSU you’ve seen play is probably the one that demolished Michigan, and you were probably watching the Michigan State game last week when you were seeing scores of 21-3, 28-10 in favor of PSU against OSU last week.
So you’re wondering which PSU team I’ve been watching.
Well, PSU was dynamite in a lot of ways against Michigan. But that was a different type of matchup, a different situation, a home game, a whiteout and the biggest PSU home game in more than 10 years, after a bye week. And PSU schemed up some cartoons to take advantage of Michigan’s fast-flow, over-aggressive man-to-man.
Most important, PSU was fresh. The QB was fresh and quite different from the QB McSorley we saw in the second half last week vs UM.
PSU’s o-line had been a weakness all year, but the o-line benefitted greatly from the bye week and shockingly played decent football vs Michigan. Then the o-line went in the tank again last week. They need to get out of the tank against this Michigan State team or they’re going to find themselves in a 10-7 type of halftime score.
* As for last week’s game against Ohio State, the Buckeyes won the vast majority of the snaps in that game. OSU out-gained PSU 529-283 last week, and those stats are not misleading.
PSU benefitted from a kickoff return for a TD and two short-field TD drives. PSU had only two bona fide scoring drives, and managed to finish both with TDs. But PSU couldn’t run the ball, couldn’t pass protect, coudn’t rush the passer. They had problems.
On defense, PSU’s zone coverages were picked apart by JT Barrett, who had time to throw. The zone coverages didn’t look all that good from about the second quarter on.
PSU has terrific talent in the back seven, but OSU tamed them. OSU was good, JT Barrett was good, but not as great as they were saying on the national Sunday talkshows when I was listening to them when driving home from Evanston last week.
PSU tried to go man-to-man on OSU’s last drive, and mixed in a couple of blitzes, but OSU had momentum by that time and PSU was on the run.
More on that game later.
The point is that PSU was terrific in a specific matchup in a specific situation against Michigan. Then they did well to build a big lead vs OSU but wasn’t good enough to protect it.
* So now here’s the big question: Does PSU rebound from that loss and arrive at Spartan Stadium all mad at the world, ready to play a perfect game? Or are they beaten up, and will they have trouble getting up for a back-to-back road trip, and a three-game slam against UM, OSU and Michigan State on back-to-back-to-back weeks? Do they have enough respect for an opponent that they beat 45-12 last year, running up the score with deep shot passes in the final minutes? Do they realize how hell-bent for blood Michigan State is going to be?
They’d better pack a lunch.
Maybe PSU will answer that bell. Maybe they will match MSU’s intensity. Maybe they will shrug off the bumps and bruises from the last two weeks and bring it a third down (although they didn’t REALLY bring it all that well last week, regardless of what the scoreboard said). Maybe PSU will learn from last week’s issues in the run game (not the first time they have had trouble running the ball), maybe they will fix their pass protection the way they did during the bye week prior to the UM game, maybe QB McSorley will eat another can of spinach or whatever it is or was that made him a dynamic playmaker last year and not look like the reluctant, worn-down sparring partner that he looked like in the last 20 minutes of last week’s game. Maybe he’ll bounce back strong. Maybe they’ll show championship mettle.
Or maybe they’ll have time punching back, now that they have sustained a blackened eye for the first time in more than 13 months. Do they have the gut and grit to punch back? They have the talent. But they have weaknesses. Now do they have a good, championship road chin in 2017? Michigan State is going to test it. You’ll begin to find those answers the same time I do. I don’t know. And this is a game. And Penn State had better pack a lunch.
There are scenarios by which Michigan State could win this game. I doubt the chances of Michigan State winning are above 50 pct. I’d put them right around 45 pct, which I think is the same number I had for MSU’s chances of winning at Michigan. I thought Michigan State was dangerous for the game in Ann Arbor, with realistic scenarios and paths to victory, and I feel the same way about this game. A lot of it is up to PSU. They have excellent talent at the skill positions and a fierce, hard-hitting back seven. But they need to make sure they get their engine restarted.
* Other questions: They had injuries at left tackle and d-end last week. Will those guys be back? The players they lost aren’t great, but their replacements are suspect or limited.
* Are PSU’s zone coverages in pass as soft as OSU made them look last week?
* Is PSU’s pass rush (and lack thereof) as tame as OSU made it look?
* Is PSU’s pass protection bad, again, like it was a few weeks ago?
* Can Michigan State recapture a level of competence in run blocking that it had against Minnesota and Michigan but lost against Indiana and Northwestern? MSU’s run blockers are not being asked to do something they have never done before. They’ve done it. This year. They need to recapture it and perhaps even improve upon what we’ve seen from them in the past - and don’t be shocked if PSU’s defensive front seven has a slightly weakened chin after the last two highly-emotional and physical games against Michigan and Ohio State.
* PSU is not great on run defense. They are good, not great. Their reserve defensive tackles are not good against the run. Their inside LBs are good, but no better than Northwestern’s. Their d-line isn’t great, not as good as Northwestern’s.
Then I looked up the stats, just now, for the first time, and the numbers agree. PSU ranks No. 6 in the Big Ten in rushing defense at 126 yards per game. Statistically, they are not better in run defense than Michigan or Northwestern. And I agree that PSU will be the fourth-best run defense Michigan State has faced this year.
* From there, can Michigan State cover Hamilton and Gesicki. Can Michigan State contain Barkley as a pass receiver and kick returner? Can Michigan State take care of the football against a PSU defense that ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten in takeaways in conference games with 11.
Answer those questions and you will probably answer whether Michigan State will win this game. If the answer is yes to four of those five questions, then the Spartans’ chances of winning climb above 54 percent.
KICK IT OFF
This week, we won’t have as much detail about the individual players in terms of home towns and recruiting backgrounds. I’m not sure if readers find that info worthwhile or not. It takes an extra 40 minutes or more to put that in, and I blew too much time last night on the second Film Room video.
Penn State results:
Penn State 52, Akron 0
Penn State 33, Pittsburgh 14
Penn State 56, Georgia State 0
Penn State 21, Iowa 19
Penn State 45, Indiana 14
Penn State 31, Northwestern 7
Penn State 42, Michigan 13
Ohio State 39, Penn State 38
Obviously this is a huge game for PSU this weekend and a huge one for Michigan State. Michigan State is the team that controls its own destiny from this point forward, not PSU. Of course Michigan State needs to win this game to retain that status.
I think there is a chance that Penn State has already peaked this year.
Their win against Iowa was unsightly, with a last-second TD pass of about 10 yards on the game’s final play. Penn State dominated that game statistically but failed to capitalize with TDs in the red zone too often, left Iowa in it, and Iowa turned in one or two big plays to fake their wait to a late lead.
Against Indiana, Penn State scored 14 points on special teams in the first quarter and created an early ambush. They ran it up late with a halfback option pass.
The Michigan game was their high point, a revenge game for PSU, their chance to show Michigan that they were much better than they were in September of 2016 when the Wolverines beat the eventual Big Ten Champions.
As mentioned, the bye week was key to PSU playing as well as they did against the Wolverines.
PSU had similar quickness and collision horsepower in the first quarter and a half last week, but then it started to dissipate.
PSU VS NORTHWESTERN
PSU led just 10-0 at halftime and never got their ground game going (sound familiar).
So how did PSU break away and win handily? What was the difference for PSU in their experience with NU, compared to MSU’s problems on defense vs NU?
It looked simple to me: Penn State was able to put consistent heat on the QB. End of story. They sacked Northwestern four times, and smacked the QB pretty good in the first quarter. They knocked him down a few times aside from those sacks.
QB Thorson ended up 19 of 36 for 142 yards with 2 INTs (one on a third-and-goal).
* PSU led just 10-0 with 9:00 left in the third quarter but NU eventually gave in.
* Barkley had netted 0 yards rushing until midway through the third quarter, but then he broke loose for a 53-yard TD with a Barry Sanders type of jitterbug slalom into the open (right tackle pull on an interior gap play), making it 24-0 late in the 3q. Ballgame.
PENN STATE VS OSU
You probably didn’t watch the game. If so, and you’re interested how it unfolded, here’s what you missed:
* In scoring 35 points, PSU had one kickoff return for a TD, and two short-field drives (one set up by a turnover, the other set up by a 60-yard kickoff return to the red zone). They basically drove twice the entire game, and punched it in with 14 points on those drives.
And one of those TDs came on a call reversal in the end zone. OSU was initially awarded an INT in the end zone. Officials looked at it again and reversed it to a touchdown. I didn’t spend much time studying the replays of that play, but that short-field TD drive almost was blown by PSU.
Aside from the 14 points on the two field-length TD drives, PSU was shut down.
The 35 points is impressive, but they were out-gained 529-283. That figure is more telling of how this game went than the final score.
* Barkley returned the opening kickoff for a TD. Then OSU fumbled at their own 30 (on a good hit by PSU). PSU scored on a slot fade to Hamilton and it’s 14-0 in an instant.
* PSU had one decent drive in the first half, capped by a 36-yard TD run by Barkley, thanks to an OSU linebacker gap error. Barkley is so dangerous that he can turn a defensive mistake into an 80-yard memory-maker. But he can’t do much without blocking, and PSU’s run game structure isn’t diversified. Stop the zone read and you stop most of what they do in their run game. Stopping the zone read, these days vs PSU, means rushing Barkley with the unblocked man who is being optioned, and MAKE McSorley keep it.
McSorley kept it a few times against Michigan and did damage, but that was against man-to-man with one safety. His keepers are less effective against zone.
* OSU cut it to 21-10 but then OSU tried to kick off AWAY from Barkley, kicked it to No. 7 Koa Farmer a LINEBACKER. He returned it about 60 yards to the OSU 24-yard line.
* PSU then drew pass interference with a corner fade (their favorite red zone route) to slot WR Brandon Polk (OSU safety Damon Webb intercepted the pass, but OSU’s slot corner defender was called for pass interference). QB McSorley scored on the next play, a 6-yard QB sweep to the short side and PSU was up 28-10 without having to drive much at all, and 8:06 left in the half.
(McSorley is a quick, tricky, effective runner. But they have used him on the ground so much this year (96 rushes, 303 net yards, 122 yards in losses). PSU QBs have been sacked 20 times this year. I’m not sure how many of those were with McSorley, but almost all of them were. And he’s been nailed in the pocket many other times.
He’s barely 6-feet tall and built like a boy scout. And I swear he was reluctant to carry the ball in the fourth quarter last week. When PSU coaches called for a QB draw in the fourth quarter, he wasn’t as beaten as Michigan’s Devin Gardner was against Michigan State back in 2013 or whenever that was when Michigan State plastered him, but McSorley wasn’t loving life.
* Penn State, to its credit, FINISHED in the red zone against OSU, something they didn’t do at Iowa a few weeks ago.
* OSU marched right back and cut it to 28-17 late in the second quarter. At halftime, OSU had more yards, 244-130. But the one turnover and the special teams TD accounted for 14 points.
* OSU drove for a field goal on the opening possession of the 2H to cut it to 28-20. At that point, total yards were about 300-130 in favor of OSU.
* PSU then drove for a TD on a controversial 36-yard TD pass. PSU led 35-20 at that point, with about 5 minutes left in the third quarter.
* OSU was regaining momentum but lost the ball on a QB/RB exchange fumble.
* Then OSU forced a punt, which OSU blocked at midfield, still trailing by 15 with 11:40 to go.
* OSU then attacked an increasingly soft PSU zone and scored on a 30-plus yard post TD, making it look easy. Time to throw, picking apart the zone.
* PSU didn’t go deep to TE Gesicki much last week, or even intermediate, but did hook up with him on a jump ball to convert what looked like a huge third-and-13 with PSU leading by 8 with 8:45 to play. OSU DB Jordan Fuller (6-2, 207) covered him and harassed him all the way but Gesicki made the play. He’s so tough to cover. If Michigan State plays well and gets in position to win this game, they’ll have to survive some jumpballs to Gesicki.
That play to Gesicki and a 20-plus yard gain on a McSorley QB draw, and a 20-yard hitch (caught at 5 yards, then eluding a tackle) by PSU WR Saed Blacknall, gave PSU first and goal. A TD would have iced the game, but they settled for a field goal. PSU ran two QB zone read keepers for a total of 4 yards. On third down, they handed to Barkley on an inside zone for a loss of 2 as RG Mahon was beaten off the snap, maybe with crowd noise being a factor. Terrible three plays for PSU inside the 10. OSU dominated the trenches, McSorley didn’t want to keep the ball on those plays. Far different than his red zone TD runs vs Michigan.
* OSU answered with Barrett again attacking PSU’s zone. One of his completions was into a tight cover-two window. Other than that, he had all day to throw and didn’t have much trouble finding open WRs, including a pass interference in the end zone. Scored on a back-shoulder fade, extremely well-thrown, vs CB Amani Oruwariye. Good coverage on that one. That cut it to 38-33 with 4:20 left.
These throws JT Barrett was making? Brian Lewerke and MSU’s receivers can replicate them, if Lewerke has time to throw - which I think he will, most of the time.
* PSU was then feeble it its attempt to run clock with the run game. Zone reads, no chance. OSU’s optioned end lineman rushed Barkley, dared McSorley to keep it. Neither option was working. They went backward. Punt. PSU fully in tail-between-legs mode.
* OSU drove for the game-winning TD, this time with PSU playing man-to-man. Connected on a crossing route and an out route. Then a TD on a post, aided by a coverage bust.
If this had been a boxing match, OSU would have won with a 14th round KO while being ahead on the scorecards, 10 rounds to 4.
OBSERVATIONS:
* I don’t mean to disrespect their team. They have lots and lots of talented, athletic frames on this team at all positions except o-line.
* Penn State is the hardest-hitting defense I’ve seen in the Big Ten this year. But they weren’t hitting quite as hard in the last 20 minutes of the game, last week. Again, the back-to-back might have been a factor.
* They attack matchups more than any team on MSU’s schedule and perhaps as much as any team in the country. If you go man-to-man, you have to deal with Gesicki, Barkley or Hamilton in the slot - any of the three can be a mismatch.
And, most of the year, the zone read option is no pic-nic to deal with. But we’ll see if McSorley still has his wheels and a full gas tank.
THE MUST LIST
* The usual things: Stop the run, get heat on the QB. But really, we mean it this week.
Worse defenses than Michigan State have been able to stop the PSU run game and pressure McSorley. It’s a must that Michigan State do it too. If you don’t do it, you’ll lose by three TDs. If you do stop the run and pressure the QB, you might still lose by two TDs but more likely, you’re two big steps toward remaining competitive.
* Michigan State is capable of playing man or zone. Being able to do both, and building on MSU’s ability to disguise its coverages, will be key vs PSU.
Last year when Michigan State blitzed, PSU knew Michigan State would be in cover-three, and dialed up an out-and-up to beat it for a TD. That’s still the first time I’ve seen a team scheme to beat a blitz with an out and up. Who thinks they’re going to have TIME vs a blitz to beat you with an out and up? Well, PSU (with its deep ball success) and Michigan State with it’s problems, made that ugly marriage happen last year.
* PSU has not been throwing deep as much as last year. In fact there were many times last year when they would would send all receivers deep. That’s odd for a college team. Opponents often had underneath defenders waiting for digs and crossers that never game.
PSU would have time to throw and found repeated success hanging jumpballs in the air for Gesicki and the others.
PSU still has the potential to do that type of thing, but they haven’t had as much time to throw.
PSU has thrown underneath more this year, because that’s what opponents have been giving them.
So what will Michigan State do?
I didn’t think Michigan State could go zone against Penn State an leave Hamilton in the area of a LB/safety.
I thought Michigan State would have to go man-to-man, bring Josiah Scott over in “corners over” and match him up with No. 5 Hamilton most of the day, and sink or swim with it.
Then I saw the success OSU had with two-deep, quarters zone defense. Now I think that can work. But a pass rush is needed in order to make it work. MSU’s pass rush has been hot and cold this year. PSU’s pass protection has been cool and cold. Michigan State has a chance there.
And there will be times when Michigan State shows zone but then goes man-to-man. Will PSU read and attack accordingly? They’ve seen teams try it before. Michigan State will try it, and perhaps Scott can withstand some of the slot corner fades he will see from Hamilton.
* Ohio State played quarters coverage most of the game.
* On its first trip to the red zone, PSU attacked it on second-and-goal at the 12 by throwing to No. 5 Hamilton in the slot vs the field safety on a fake to the post and double move to the back corner (AKA a post-corner). OSU safety Damon Webb. INC.
Next play: TD pass to Hamilton vs man-to-man on a slot fade to the corner. Against press coverage vs CB Arnett, Hamilton just accelerated, had a quarter step on Arnett and somehow won the jumpball.
PSU went to Hamilton in the slot two straight times. One vs zone, one vs man.
PSU RUN GAME
* PSU runs a lot of zone read. Increasingly, teams are overplaying Barkley, making QB McSorley keep it. He is pretty nifty on keepers, but you’d rather pick his poison than Barkley’s.
So McSorley has been carrying the ball frequently, and he has been sacked a lot this year. He’s coming off two physical games vs OSU and Michigan. Is he still chucking and ducking at last year’s championship clip or will he start to look human and show some scratches and dents at some point?
* In fact, I would say TOO much for their offense is zone read. They should run power, traps and toss sweeps for Barkley. But they don’t. Not that I’ve seen.
* Their first run play of the game last week was a first-and-goal draw play. O-line in two-point stances, showed pass pro, then the the left tackle attempted to pull and isolate an inside linebacker with a lead block. Not the most confident, smashmouth style of play. Gisicki failed to seal DE Bosa on the back side, Barkley was corralled for a loss of 4.
PSU tries to finesse you with the run game. I don’t think they needed to build things that way. But they did, and now I think it hurts them.
* The misdirection PSU used vs Michigan won’t work as well against Michigan State. Michigan over-pursues and PSU used their speed against them a few costly times.
* PSU outscoring opponents 104-3 in the first quarter
Last year they had an amazing penchant of outscoring opponents in the third quarter. When it’s that regular, you have to tip your hat to PSU’s coaching.
PSU led OSU 14-3 in the first quarter last week (but OSU had a 106-33 edge in yardage with PSU at -10 rushing yards in the 1Q).
* Prior to last week, PSU led the nation in scoring defense at 9.6 per game. Now, PSU ranks no. 7 in the country in scoring defense.
That’s obviously pretty good, but Michigan State - believe it or not - will probably be the second-best offense they have seen this year.
Lewerke: “They’ve got a lot of exotic blitzes. The safeties are hard hitters. No. 2 (safety Marcus Allen) is not afraid of trying to make plays in the box instead of covering the pass.”
OFFENSE
* Like Northwestern, they love to leak the RB out as a receiver on any down - especially watch out on third-and-long vs man-to-man.
* Third-and-14 threw to Barkley on a short crossing route for 10 yards last week (had him as a wide out in empty. Had Barkley and TE Gisicki to one side, and WRs to the other. Sent everyone deep, tried to take the lid off the defense and hit Barkley underneath. Zone defense was the right call for OSU on this play.
* PSU loves, loves, loves to try to spring slot WRs deep vs safeties or linebackers.
* PSU had only one real scoring drive in the first half last week, aided by a defensive pass interference and a couple of run-around possession-route passes from McSorley, then a 36-yard TD run by Barkley on a gap error by OSU LB.
* Their run-blocking is mediocre. When they try to lean on you with double-teams and run inside with inside zones, they don’t get a lot of movement. They don’t knock down the door with that stuff. The McSorley option read layer of it makes it harder to stop, but they need it to be a complement to some power stuff. They’re lacking in that area.
Quarterback 9 Trace McSorley (6-0, 195, Sr./Jr.)
* Averaging 258 yards per game, 65 pct completions, 16 TDs, 5 INTs. Those stats look pretty good.
In conference games, he is averaging 263 yards passing per game (No. 3 in the Big Ten), No. 3 in pass efficiency.
* Last year he displayed an uncanny ability to hit deep passes, often in creative scramble mode.
* Has the extra element to keep on the zone read AND scramble to throw like a modern day Flutie. He was great against Michigan.
* Last week vs OSU was 17 of 29 for 192 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs, sacked twice.
* Rushed 13 times for 49 yards, with a long of 23, and one TD last week.
* He’s not perfect. Scrambled to the outside and missed TE Gisicki open on third-and-12 in the first quarter last week.
- Missed WR 84 Johnson on a crossing route in the first quarter last week, after McSorley took a pretty good ding on an option keeper one play earlier.
- Missed WR Hamilton on a slant on a first-and-10 RPO with 10:15 left in the third quarter and OSU riding momentum.
- Threw an INT, in the third quarter, underthrew WR DeAndre Thompins in the end zone on a deep, 36-yard post. OSU DB wrestled it away from him as they both fell to the ground jostling for the ball. But officials reviewed it and ruled it a TD. Probably a good call, but strange to see that one reversed. That gave PSU a 34-20 lead.
- With PSU losing momentum, but still up 35-20 with 12:30 left, he missed Hamilton vs press man-to-man on an out route at 15 yards. Threw behind him.
* Against Michigan, he had much more lively legs and willingness to run, coming off the bye week and capitalizing on cutbacks vs UM’s fast, aggressive, man-to-man defense, TD runs of 3 and 13 yards on zone read keepers. And a 9-yard TD keeper on a power read option against a white-flag waiving UM defense.
* On that same power look, McSorley pulled it out for an RPO pass to back-up QB Tommy Stevens for an 11-yard TD.
* Against UM threw an INT in the red zone in the 2q which temporarily changed the game for the negative. Threw an out route to TE Gesicki when Gesicki was turning for an out and up.
[QB 2 Tommy Stevens (6-5, 228, Jr./So.)]
* He is 9 of 17 on the year for 126 ayrds with 1 TD. He caught a TD pass against Northwestern.
I haven’t seen him play but if he had to play I suspect he would be functional.
Running Back 26 Saquon Barkley (5-11, 230, Jr./Jr.)
* Is PSU’s leading RECEIVER with 36 catches (13.1 per catch). (58 yards receiving per game).
* Leads the nation in total offense per game.
* Averaging 100 yards per game, 5.8 per carry (801 net yards rushing on the year).
+ Had 36 yards in losses last week vs OSU, netting 44 yards on the day on 21 carries (2.1 per).
+ 36-yard TD run last week on a zone read option handoff, with an OSU LB getting caught out of his gap.
* For non-math majors, that means Barkley netted only 8 yards on his 20 other carries aside from the 36-yard TD.
* Stopped after a gain of 2 on a third-and-6 late in the 2Q on a zone read option, a surprising call.
* He was held to 56 yards on 20 carries against Indiana.
* 75 yards on 16 carries against Northwestern, with 53 of those coming on one carry.
* 108 yards on 15 carries against Michigan, with 69 coming on one carry.
* 15 straight games with at least one TD (longest active FBS streatk)
+ 11-yard reception on a screen on third-and-10 last week in the first quarter.
* Four catches for 23 yards last week.
* They will use him at least once or twice on shovel passes.
* Barkley has three receiving TDs this season.
* Michigan had a miserable time trying to cover him with slowish MLB McCray. PSU tried to get Barkley open last week on a wheel route with 9:30 left in the game, but OSU LB Malik Harrison sprinted well with him down the sideline.
+ He beat UM’s McCray as a slot WR in man to man for a 42-yard TD on a simple release move to the inside, skinnier than a skinny post. QB with time to throw and vast green space to throw it into.
* Who covers him for Michigan State? Well, who covers Gesicki? Michigan State has problems here, whether in man to man or zone.
Chris Frey has had trouble in pass defense this year and in other years. PSU will be able to scheme and formation and know when they can put Barkley in a pass route against the strongside LB.
Michigan State CAN play man to man to the point of traveling Andrew Dowell everywhere with Barkley, but Dowell isn’t the type of pass defender that would lead you to do that. Plus, Michigan State (and most opponents) don’t want to purely play man-to-man against PSU - because then the zone read becomes more effective ,and the slot fades to Hamilton become more isolated, as do the jumpballs to Gesicki.
Is Antjuan Simmons ready to take on more of a role, and perhaps provide some matchup help on defense? Well, he was involved in an expensive bust on a pass to the TE last week.
Overall this isn’t a situation like when Michigan State put Justin Layne on Simmie Cobbs everywhere he went. With a mismatch TE and a good pass-catching RB, Michigan State doesn’t have the type of pass defense safety or linebacker who could attempt to lock either of them down.
So Michigan State will play its base zone and try to pay it well. Iowa had some success that way. Northwestern played decent defense too, stopping the run and holding PSU to 381 yards of total offense.
NU and Iowa had better slot-area LB cover men than Michigan State. But Michigan State has better corners than NU.
Frankly, I’m not sure what approach Michigan State will have in trying to cover Barkley and Gesicki. There will be times when a Khari Willis, or David Dowell or a Matt Morrissey get stuck vs Gesicki one-on-one, whether in zone or man, and you just have to backyard survive it. Again, a pass rush would help.
Stop the run, put them in third-and-long as many times as possible, then hope the pass rush can serve you in the bomb raid.
* PSU has talent at WR, and lots of it.
Wide Receiver (X)
84 Juwan Johnson (6-4, 226, Jr./So.)
* Dropped a shallow crosser in the fourth quarter last week.
* 30 catches, ranks second on the team.
* 1 TD. 45 yards receiving per game.
Wide Receiver (H) 5 DaeSean Hamilton (6-1, 206, Gr./Sr.)
* PSu’s all-time leading receiver.
* But he ranks only fourth this year in catches with 29, averaging 17 yards per catch and 61 yards per game (which is No. 1 on the team).
* 5 TD catches.
* They love him in the red zone on the slot corner fade. Heck they like to use him with that, anywhere on the field.
* Had only one catch last week but it was a 13-yard TD on a corner fade on third-and-goal vs man-to-man pressing CB Arnett of OSU. (One snap earlier, they went to him on a post corner, second and goal, INC on first possession vs OSU.)
* Had a momentum-building 30-yarder vs UM after UM had cut lead to 14-6, on third-and-seven, jump ball go route for about 30 yards to midfield vs good coverage.
* A few plays later went to him against on same play on fourth and 7 but UM good coverage by Lavert Hill in the slot knocked it away.
* After UM cut it to 14-13, first play of next drive, they went deep to him again for 30 yards, slot deep fade, changed momentum again, Simple outside release 50-50 ball this time against DB Mettelus of UM.
Wide Receiver (Z) 3 DeAndre Thompkins (5-11, 187, Sr./Jr.)
* 18 catches on the year.
* Probably their fastest receiver.
* 1 TD on the year.
13 Saeed Blacknall (6-3, 217, Sr./Sr.)
* 11 catches.
Tight End 88 Mike Gesicki (6-6, 250, Sr./Sr.)
* 30 catches, 4 TDs, 35 yards per game.
+ Can go deep, or work the drags and in routes as a possession chain-mover.
+ 9-yard catch on third-and-four in the first half last week, McSorley stepped up, feeling the rush and found No. 88 to move the chains.
* Had four catches for 28 yards last week midway through the first half. FInished with a team-high six catches for 57 yards.
* PSU didn’t go deep to him much last week, or even intermediate, but did hook up with him on a jump ball to convert what looked like a huge third-and-13 with PSU leading by 8 with 8:45 to play. OSU DB Jordan Fuller (6-2, 207) covered him and harassed him all the way.
That play and a 20-plus yard gain on a QB draw, and a 20-yard hitch (caught at 5 yards, then eluding a tackle) by WR Saed Blacknall, gave PSU first and goal. A TD would have iced the game, but they settled for a field goal. PSU ran two QB zone read keepers for a total of 4 yards. On third down, they hadned to Barkley on an inside zone for a loss of 2 as RG Mahon was beaten off the snap, maybe with crowd noise eing a factor.
* Vs Michigan, from the slot, jumpball fade on third-and-three to the 4-yard line for 20 yards with less than a minute left in the half, helping PSU regain control at 21-13 at the break.
18 Jonathan Holland (6-4, 248, Jr./So.)
* 2 catches on the year.
* Subbed in for Gesicki and PSU moved him out to the slot and he went deep on a nice release move, drew defensive holding. This is a back-up TE? Lots of talented, athletic frames on this team.
* This dude is going to be good. Big dude, runs well, runs a curl route with good feet. NFL potential, yet he’s a redshirt junior who doesn’t play much.
OFFENSIVE LINE:
* Very questionable at right tackle if Ryan Bates doesn’t play.
Left Tackle 52 Ryan Bates (6-4, 312, Jr./So.): questionable due to injury
71 Will Fries (6-6, 305, So./Fr.)
+ Not bad last week with a combo block out to the LB on a first-and-10 right tackle trap , but it only gained 1 yard. OSU CB flowed fast and chased it down from the back side.
Left Guard 74 Steven Gonzalez (6-4, 341, Jr./So.)
* Pulled him on a nice power read option 9 yard TD keeper (McSorley) against Michigan. Didn’t see that play last week.
Center 66 Connor McGovern (6-5, 312, So./So.)
* No opinion.
Right Guard 70 Brendan Mahon (6-4, 318, 5th/Sr.)
- Allowed a sack last week to DT Draymont Jones last week on a violent shoulder club & arm-over. Does Michigan State have anyone to attack him with anything similar? Well, Naquan Jones is getting there. Raequan Williams might be able to test No. 70 as well, in the pass rush.
Right Tackle 71 Will Fries (6-6, 305, So./Fr.) OR 77 Chasz Wright (6-7, 358, Sr./Jr.)
* 77 is not good.
* Second string prior to the OSU game.
* Started five games last season and the first three games of this year.
* He went into the game against OSU after Bates went down. He struggled.
* Beaten for sack in third quarter at NW.
DEFENSE
* All the d-linemen love to use the right handed shoulder club, to set up the arm-over (AKA short swim move).
* D-line went eight deep in the first quarter last week.
* Was surprised and impressed by how many reserves they used last week, and how early they used them. I counted eight second strings in the defensive backfield and d-line alone. They might not go that deep against an Michigan State team that doesn’t run tempo. But using that many players SHOULD help prevent November wear.
In the fourth quarter, they didn’t look so good.
* They bring some exotic blitzes, with various players from various angles. And they close quickly. MSU’s experience in playing vs Michigan will help in this task.
* When it’s time to finish a team tackle, the second and third men in hit hard, no matter who it is.
* On the d-line, PSU lost d-end Torrence Brown for the season to a knee injury at Iowa. He started four games as a sophomore last year. Pretty good player, they miss him, not great.
* They played a ton of zone last week. Cover-two, cover-four, some cover-three. Not the greatest zone defense you’ll find. Very tough, athletic individuals in the back, but OSU didn’t have much trouble finding open receivers in PSU’s zones. And this was an OSU WR crew that was criticized for getting no separation vs Oklahoma a few weeks ago.
Defensive End
48/19 Shareef Miller (6-5, 257, Jr./So.)
* Good player, not great.
* Tied for second on the team in sacks with 3.5.
* Quick, violent shoulder club with the right hand, setting up the left shoulder dip.
* Can transition and close like a linebacker.
- Got knocked off-balance vs a double-team on an inside zone on second-and-three in the first quarter last week but the OSU RB didn’t carry it to the hole.
+ Excellent one-step quickness when it’s green-light time to chase.
+ Had a coverage sack last week in the red zone in the first quarter.
34 Shane Simmons (6-3, 250, So./Fr.)
* Saw action last week in the first quarter.
* Quick lateral movement and can lay out with speed. This guy is second string? Athlete.
Defensive Tackle 52 Curtis Cothran (6-5, 301, Gr./Sr.)
* Good pass rusher, suspect vs double teams in the run game.
* Tied for second on the team in sacks with 3.5
* His pass rushing ability will be a challenge for MSU’s young offensive guards, who struggled last week.
+ Stunt, sack in the red zone last week to force a field goal attempt on third down. Received a pick from blitzing LB Cabinda, and looped around him, closed quickly for a defensive tackle.
- Allowed too much movement to a double team on a third-and-four zone read. RB Dobbins benefitted from the daylight for 20 yards.
- Allowed too much movement on a double team vs power, early in the 2H last week
- Consistently substandard vs double teams.
+ Beat UM center for a sack on opening drive.
+ Sack in red zone helped thwart a first-and-goal situation for Northwestern. NU had a penalty and threw INT on deep fade on third down (yes a deep fade on third and goal).
30 Kevin Givens (6-1, 287, Jr./So.)
* Plays with good, low center of gravity.
Defensive Tackle 41 Parker Cothren (6-4, 304, Gr./Sr.)
+ Quick with the shoulder club, or the blow to the back of the elbow to open the door and squeeze past an o-lineman.
[54 Robert Windsor (6-4, 303, Jr./So.)]
+ Good vs double team on inside zone on second down inside the 10-yard line last week in the second quarter, not giving an inch, keeping his feet pumping and made the tackle. Excellent play, with 5:29 left in the half and I think that was his first snap of the game. They have a lot of guys.
- Got moved by a double team on the next play, though.
* Not bad on the pass rush, works. Drew a holding call on OSU right guard, negating a 25-yard completion in the third quarter.
[56 Tyrell Chavis (6-3, 312, Sr.)]
* Saw action in the first quarter last week and played quite a bit through the middle portions of the game, although he’s not so great.
- Not so great. Was moved by an OSU double team on third-and-one in the first quarter.
- Not so great, moved out by the OSU center on a QB counter keeper for 21 yards in the second quarter. Safety Apke over-pursued on the play and left a gap unmanned; rare for PSU to make that error.
- Consistently bad against double-teams last week.
* Was getting blown off the ball by a double-team on a third-and-1 at midfield last week with 12 minutes left when OSU fumbled a handoff and PSU regained possession.
* Gerald Owens is better than 56, and 56 played a lot of plays last week.
Defensive End
97 Ryan Buckholz (6-6, 275, Jr.)
Stand up DE, short side, Hurt on first play vs OSU.
* Questionable for this game due to a lower body injury from last week.
* He’s not great, but they miss him.
* Has 17 tackes, 2 sacks, 2.5 TFLs
* His absence for most of the game last week hurt Penn State’s pass rush.
* Not as good as last week’s No. 97 of Northwestern, but they miss him.
* On UM’s 6-yard TD run late in the 1H, Buchholz got down-blocked inside, and UM ran power, pulling the RG, for a seemingly easy TD. But the lead to 14-13. UM TE down-blocked and found 40 MLB Cabinda to prevent him from pursuing.
18 Shaka Toney (6-3, 233, So./Fr.)
* Leads team with four sacks. Pass rush specialist.
* Played the entire drive on OSU’s first scoring drive. Was not spectacular.
+ Sack and fumble vs Northwestern at midfield midway through 1H when it was 0-0. Impressive play, long-arming the NU left tackle, blind-siding QB Thorson.
[99 Yetur Gross-Matos (6-5, 248, Fr./Fr.)]
* Played first-string DE last week after Buchholz went down with the injury.
* Long arms and long legs and can accelerate real well, but looks like he’s a year or so away from being an impact player. More of a Robert Bowers type, now. He has trouble winning the hands battles.
LINEBACKERS
Excellent trio. Good pair of inside linebackers, and the slot man can run, hit and cover.
Will Linebacker 43 Manny Bowen (6-1, 226, Jr./Jr.)
+ Stiff, focused hit on OSU WR Paris Campbell resulted in a fumble, returned to the OSU 23-yard line, set up a 14-0 lead just four minutes into the game.
[6 Cam Brown (6-5, 227, So./So.)]
* Saw action in the second quarter last week.
Middle Linebacker 40 Jason Cabinda (6-1, 234, Sr./Sr.)
* Third-team All-Big Ten by coaches last year.
* Runs and pursues the alley exceptionally well.
* Last week’s MLB, Paddy Fisher of NU, was/is excellent. Cabinda is a little better right now. But Fisher played behind better d-tackles, and a better strong-side DE.
[47 Brandon Smith (6-0, 231, Gr./Sr.)]
* Started a possession in the second quarter after PSU went up 21-3 last week.
Sam Linebacker 7 Koa Farmer (6-1, 237, Sr./Jr.)
+ Moves like a safety when playing in the slot, in space, but angular and strong. Displayed both in eluding a block and tackling RB Mike Weber on a bubble for a loss of 5 in the first quarter last week.
PASS DEFENSE TRENDS & SCHEMES
* Showed cover-three (three deep) but rolled into cover-two (cloud/halves) at the snap on second-and-long last week, leaving the TE open in the first quarter, but he dropped it. QB needs time to read the changing coverages.
* In the nickel, in long-yardage, they went cover-six vs OSU in the first quarter (cover-two on the short side, cover-four on the field side with third-string CB Haley (15) sinking deep.
* OSU cut it to 21-9 with a pass-oriented drive midway through the first half. They hit a deep crosser for about 36, then scored on a 14-yard skinny post. PSU had a two-deep zone but there was too much space between the safeties. Looked like a bust.
* On the 36-yarder earlier in the drive, it looked like OSU ran a “dagger concept.” That means they used two receivers to “take the top off the secondary” with deep routes, occupying deep defenders; then they brought a crosser from the other side of the field at about 20 yards underneath the blown-off top of the secondary.
* OSU cut it to 35-27 with a 38-yard TD vs soft cover-four, lots of room between the safeties, not much obstruction in getting into the route, with 11:00 to play.
* PSU’s run game then failed miserably. QB McSorley unwilling to pull the ball and keep on zone read. RT 77 Chasz Wright getting beat on second down.
* Then OSU regained possession with about 3 minutes to play. PSU opted for man-to-man and blitzes but OSU carved it up with an out route, a shallow crosser. And then scored the game-winner on a seam route in cover-three. He had all day to throw.
* OSU made PSU’s zone defense look a little soft.
JT Barrett passed for 328 yards on 33 of 39 passing with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Those numbers are sparkling. But he had time to throw, and OSU’s often-maligned WRs were able to find green space.
Free Safety 2 Marcus Allen (6-2, 207, Sr./Sr.)
* Quality player, gets low and hits better than most linebackers. Short-area burst to physicality is impressive with so many of these guys. In a short amount of space, they break down and hammer you with a text-book, angular hit and wrap.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year.
[4 Nick Scott (5-11, 199, Sr./Jr.)]
* Saw action in the first quarter last week.
* Versatile enough to be trusted with press coverage in the slot on fourth-and-eight in the first quarter last week.
Strong Safety 28 Troy Apke (6-1, 198, Sr./Sr.)
+ Sticky player, closely with quickness and made tackle with grappling-hook arms and hands on OSU WR K.J. Hill on a crossing route. Good tackle in space.
* Sharp player, not the thickest, most physical guy, but he will go full-tilt and get to you.
Field Cornerback 15 Grant Haley (5-9, 190, Sr./Sr.)
* Moves to slot CB in the nickel defense in passing situations.
- Called for pass interference on a fade in the end zone last week in the second quarter.
[21 Amani Oruwariye (6-1, 209, Sr./Jr.)]
* Plays field CB in the nickel defense. * Saw action with the regulars late in the first quarter. Reacted well to a pump-and-go, got depth, smooth coverage. This guy is second-string? He would start for a lot of teams in the Big Ten.
* INT on third and goal jump ball vs Northwestern in the first half.
Boundary Cornerback 1 Christian Campbell (6-1, 194, Sr./Sr.)
* Menacing hitter from the CB position.
+ Got home an blitz for sack and strip vs UM in the fourth quarter.
[5 Tariq Castro-Fields (6-0, 185, Fr./Fr.)]
* Saw action in the first quarter last week.
= With him at boundary CB in cover-two, OSU ran a hitchpump-and-go deep. Castro-Fields bit hard on the pump and safety Apke had the cover-two hole deep down the sideline. Apke broke it up, and JT Barrett didn’t lead him enough to the sideline. WR owned the “red line” cushion to the sideline but Barrett missed him.
38 Lamont Wade (5-9, 196, Fr./Fr.)
* Was beaten on a deep fade to the 5-yard line in the 2q vs Michigan. Didn’t see No. 38 Wade last week vs OSU)
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Place kicker Tyler Davis has struggled. 7 of 14 on field goals. 0 for 4 from 30 to 39 yards. 2 of 4 from 40 to 49 yards.
* PSU is dangerous on kick return, and they need to be.
* When cutting the lead to 35-27, OSU opted to go with a squib kick and covered PSU at the 29-yard line, rather than kicking to Barkley. Will Michigan State do the same? Might not be a bad idea.
OSU squibbed it to Barkley after cutting the lead to 38-33 with 4:14 left, tackling him at the 15.
ADD IT ALL UP
Is PSU mature and focused and healed enough to band together, go on the road, take care of business against a defense that will probably stop their running attack? Is PSU ready to provide good pass protection for McSorley so he can probe some mismatches in the pass game?
Is MSU’s pass rush ready to stand in the face of all that talent?
Is McSorley starting to show some dents and scratches? Will the zone read keeper aspect of their offense continue to stall?
Penn State leads the Big Ten in conference games and is third in the Big Ten in sacks in conference games. They rush the passer well on third down, so it’s key to stay on schedule and stay out of third and long.
I’m not big on predicting heroic A-plus outings. One of those is possible for Michigan State, but a solid B to B-plus outing is more likely.
That would mean providing good pass protection most of the game, but it’s not likely to expect perfect pass protection like OSU had most of the night.
That would mean a big day from the Michigan State pass rush, like four or five sacks. That’s not likely, but three sacks and good heat is possible.
Can Michigan State hang with Gesicki and Hamilton and Barkley in pass defense individually? I’m not sure what those matchups will end up looking like. Again, a pass rush would be an immense help. Expecting Michigan State to go unscathed in these matchups is foolhardy. PSU is going to score some blows here. Michigan State needs to be ready to answer with strong offense of its own.
MSU’s run game needs to prove its manhood. PSU will be putting the crown of their helmets on LJ Scott’s hands. They hit hard. They’ll test him. I’m not confident he will pass. Michigan State may have to try to win with Holmes and London getting more than half of the carries.
MSU’s blockers were getting full heat this week to step it up. Michigan State coaches usually do a good job of getting progress from areas of emphasis. I am expecting Michigan State to rush for at least 135 yards, and should have a goal to exceed the 158 they had against Michigan.
Penn State’s run defense has been pretty good, but their DTs aren’t great against the run. Their run defense isn’t as good as Northwestern’s, and we can expect MSU’s run blocking to be sharper, more determined than it was against Northwestern.
As it’s been for the past few weeks, that means a lot of it falls back into the hands of Lewerke. If he has time, which I think he will have for most pass attempts, I like his ability to find receivers in PSU’s zone coverages, and I like MSU’s receivers’ chances of getting there and finishing, and I like MSU’s chances of scheming some good route combinations for those zone defenses, and I think the Michigan State run game will do a decent job of setting up Lewerke with manageable chains.
I think Michigan State can get into position to score in the high 20s against these guys. Keeping Penn State below 30 means taking care of the ball, giving up nothing goofy on special teams, containing Barkley’s ground game and surviving the Hamilton/Barkley/Gisecki pass game jump balls fades and isolations. Michigan State can contain Barkley for most of the game but Michigan State can’t allow the single long run, which seems to be a specialty of Barkley’s. From there, the x-factor is MSU’s pass defense against that PSU talent in the pass game. The x-factor to that x-factor is how much time McSorley gets to throw, or how much magic he can create on the run, and whether he might be starting to feel the effects of a long, physical season and a gruesome three weeks.
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
EAST LANSING - This is Penn State’s game to win or lose.
What I mean by that is Penn State has the personnel and material to take care of business on the road and put this game in the win column, possibly by a tight margin, if they have prepared hard all week, play hard on Saturday and capitalize on opportunities.
But, like I’ve been saying all week, they had better pack a lunch, because Michigan State stark-raving hates them, from the coaches on down, and there’s a chance Michigan State might shake off last week’s loss, learn from it, build on it and play a sharp, balanced 60 minutes of football. Real good chance Michigan State answers the bell in good fashion in this game. So it’s up to Penn State to have no hangover from last week’s loss at Ohio State, and it’s up to Penn State to improve upon last week’s game, because Penn State really struggled in a lot of ways against Ohio State.
These are the things I’m wondering heading into this game:
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST:
* Is Penn State’s offensive line as bad as it looked last week against OSU? Penn State’s o-line was a weakness for the first half of the season. Then they had a bye week and duct-taped things together against Michigan, thanks to some good game-planning to take advantage of Michigan’s man-to-man and over-pursuit.
But then the o-line was back to being bad last week, and they lost a starting offensive tackle in the process. His status is unknown for this week’s game. His replacement, No. 77 at right tackle, would be the No. 4 o-tackle, at best, if he played for Michigan State. He is not good. He’s a weakness.
How much of that was OSU’s defensive front? Some of it. But Michigan State is pretty good on the defensive front too, and Michigan State is fully capable of winning in the trenches when on defense.
* PSU has had trouble establishing the run vs Ohio State and Northwestern. If I’m Michigan State, I’m disappointed if I let PSU rush for more than 90 yards. It’s well within MSU’s capacity to shut down the run like they did last week, and the task is somewhat similar. RB Barkley is better than Justin Jackson, but Jackson had better blocking.
* From there, PSU has terrific skill at QB, WRs and TE. They ripped Michigan with fades and jumpballs vs press man-to-man, throwing to RB Barkley, mismatch TE Gesicki, and terrific slot WR Hamilton (at 6-1, 206 he is Penn State’s all-time leading pass catcher with 189 receptions). PSU receivers made some difficult catches in traffic against pretty good coverage, although UM LB McCray wasn’t fast enough to cover Barkley.
Michigan State will get tested with corner fades to Hamilton and jumpball corner routes to big 6-foot-6, high-jumping Gesicki, and wheel routes to Barkley.
OSU had speed at LB to cover Barkley. Does Michigan State have that kind of speed? Well, Michigan State won’t be in man-to-man 90 pct of the time like UM was, so PSU won’t be able to cherry pick the matchups as definitively.
OSU played zone, I would estimate, about 85 pct of the time. PSU had limited time to throw, no run game. Because OSU was playing zone, there weren’t quite as many opportunities for 50-50 balls and fades and jump balls.
They didn’t go deep for Gesicki or Hamilton more than two or three times total. That’s strange because PSU went deep like crazy against everybody last year, including vs. MSU’s zone last year (admittedly, MSU’s zone wasn’t skitzo last year).
But still, PSU looked strange from a play-choice standpoint against OSU, not willing to go deep as much. (OSU intercepted two passes in the end zone, but one was overturned due to pass interference, and the other was overturned and ruled a TD by replay officials).
* Okay, I probably need to stop and explain some things. The PSU you’ve seen play is probably the one that demolished Michigan, and you were probably watching the Michigan State game last week when you were seeing scores of 21-3, 28-10 in favor of PSU against OSU last week.
So you’re wondering which PSU team I’ve been watching.
Well, PSU was dynamite in a lot of ways against Michigan. But that was a different type of matchup, a different situation, a home game, a whiteout and the biggest PSU home game in more than 10 years, after a bye week. And PSU schemed up some cartoons to take advantage of Michigan’s fast-flow, over-aggressive man-to-man.
Most important, PSU was fresh. The QB was fresh and quite different from the QB McSorley we saw in the second half last week vs UM.
PSU’s o-line had been a weakness all year, but the o-line benefitted greatly from the bye week and shockingly played decent football vs Michigan. Then the o-line went in the tank again last week. They need to get out of the tank against this Michigan State team or they’re going to find themselves in a 10-7 type of halftime score.
* As for last week’s game against Ohio State, the Buckeyes won the vast majority of the snaps in that game. OSU out-gained PSU 529-283 last week, and those stats are not misleading.
PSU benefitted from a kickoff return for a TD and two short-field TD drives. PSU had only two bona fide scoring drives, and managed to finish both with TDs. But PSU couldn’t run the ball, couldn’t pass protect, coudn’t rush the passer. They had problems.
On defense, PSU’s zone coverages were picked apart by JT Barrett, who had time to throw. The zone coverages didn’t look all that good from about the second quarter on.
PSU has terrific talent in the back seven, but OSU tamed them. OSU was good, JT Barrett was good, but not as great as they were saying on the national Sunday talkshows when I was listening to them when driving home from Evanston last week.
PSU tried to go man-to-man on OSU’s last drive, and mixed in a couple of blitzes, but OSU had momentum by that time and PSU was on the run.
More on that game later.
The point is that PSU was terrific in a specific matchup in a specific situation against Michigan. Then they did well to build a big lead vs OSU but wasn’t good enough to protect it.
* So now here’s the big question: Does PSU rebound from that loss and arrive at Spartan Stadium all mad at the world, ready to play a perfect game? Or are they beaten up, and will they have trouble getting up for a back-to-back road trip, and a three-game slam against UM, OSU and Michigan State on back-to-back-to-back weeks? Do they have enough respect for an opponent that they beat 45-12 last year, running up the score with deep shot passes in the final minutes? Do they realize how hell-bent for blood Michigan State is going to be?
They’d better pack a lunch.
Maybe PSU will answer that bell. Maybe they will match MSU’s intensity. Maybe they will shrug off the bumps and bruises from the last two weeks and bring it a third down (although they didn’t REALLY bring it all that well last week, regardless of what the scoreboard said). Maybe PSU will learn from last week’s issues in the run game (not the first time they have had trouble running the ball), maybe they will fix their pass protection the way they did during the bye week prior to the UM game, maybe QB McSorley will eat another can of spinach or whatever it is or was that made him a dynamic playmaker last year and not look like the reluctant, worn-down sparring partner that he looked like in the last 20 minutes of last week’s game. Maybe he’ll bounce back strong. Maybe they’ll show championship mettle.
Or maybe they’ll have time punching back, now that they have sustained a blackened eye for the first time in more than 13 months. Do they have the gut and grit to punch back? They have the talent. But they have weaknesses. Now do they have a good, championship road chin in 2017? Michigan State is going to test it. You’ll begin to find those answers the same time I do. I don’t know. And this is a game. And Penn State had better pack a lunch.
There are scenarios by which Michigan State could win this game. I doubt the chances of Michigan State winning are above 50 pct. I’d put them right around 45 pct, which I think is the same number I had for MSU’s chances of winning at Michigan. I thought Michigan State was dangerous for the game in Ann Arbor, with realistic scenarios and paths to victory, and I feel the same way about this game. A lot of it is up to PSU. They have excellent talent at the skill positions and a fierce, hard-hitting back seven. But they need to make sure they get their engine restarted.
* Other questions: They had injuries at left tackle and d-end last week. Will those guys be back? The players they lost aren’t great, but their replacements are suspect or limited.
* Are PSU’s zone coverages in pass as soft as OSU made them look last week?
* Is PSU’s pass rush (and lack thereof) as tame as OSU made it look?
* Is PSU’s pass protection bad, again, like it was a few weeks ago?
* Can Michigan State recapture a level of competence in run blocking that it had against Minnesota and Michigan but lost against Indiana and Northwestern? MSU’s run blockers are not being asked to do something they have never done before. They’ve done it. This year. They need to recapture it and perhaps even improve upon what we’ve seen from them in the past - and don’t be shocked if PSU’s defensive front seven has a slightly weakened chin after the last two highly-emotional and physical games against Michigan and Ohio State.
* PSU is not great on run defense. They are good, not great. Their reserve defensive tackles are not good against the run. Their inside LBs are good, but no better than Northwestern’s. Their d-line isn’t great, not as good as Northwestern’s.
Then I looked up the stats, just now, for the first time, and the numbers agree. PSU ranks No. 6 in the Big Ten in rushing defense at 126 yards per game. Statistically, they are not better in run defense than Michigan or Northwestern. And I agree that PSU will be the fourth-best run defense Michigan State has faced this year.
* From there, can Michigan State cover Hamilton and Gesicki. Can Michigan State contain Barkley as a pass receiver and kick returner? Can Michigan State take care of the football against a PSU defense that ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten in takeaways in conference games with 11.
Answer those questions and you will probably answer whether Michigan State will win this game. If the answer is yes to four of those five questions, then the Spartans’ chances of winning climb above 54 percent.
KICK IT OFF
This week, we won’t have as much detail about the individual players in terms of home towns and recruiting backgrounds. I’m not sure if readers find that info worthwhile or not. It takes an extra 40 minutes or more to put that in, and I blew too much time last night on the second Film Room video.
Penn State results:
Penn State 52, Akron 0
Penn State 33, Pittsburgh 14
Penn State 56, Georgia State 0
Penn State 21, Iowa 19
Penn State 45, Indiana 14
Penn State 31, Northwestern 7
Penn State 42, Michigan 13
Ohio State 39, Penn State 38
Obviously this is a huge game for PSU this weekend and a huge one for Michigan State. Michigan State is the team that controls its own destiny from this point forward, not PSU. Of course Michigan State needs to win this game to retain that status.
I think there is a chance that Penn State has already peaked this year.
Their win against Iowa was unsightly, with a last-second TD pass of about 10 yards on the game’s final play. Penn State dominated that game statistically but failed to capitalize with TDs in the red zone too often, left Iowa in it, and Iowa turned in one or two big plays to fake their wait to a late lead.
Against Indiana, Penn State scored 14 points on special teams in the first quarter and created an early ambush. They ran it up late with a halfback option pass.
The Michigan game was their high point, a revenge game for PSU, their chance to show Michigan that they were much better than they were in September of 2016 when the Wolverines beat the eventual Big Ten Champions.
As mentioned, the bye week was key to PSU playing as well as they did against the Wolverines.
PSU had similar quickness and collision horsepower in the first quarter and a half last week, but then it started to dissipate.
PSU VS NORTHWESTERN
PSU led just 10-0 at halftime and never got their ground game going (sound familiar).
So how did PSU break away and win handily? What was the difference for PSU in their experience with NU, compared to MSU’s problems on defense vs NU?
It looked simple to me: Penn State was able to put consistent heat on the QB. End of story. They sacked Northwestern four times, and smacked the QB pretty good in the first quarter. They knocked him down a few times aside from those sacks.
QB Thorson ended up 19 of 36 for 142 yards with 2 INTs (one on a third-and-goal).
* PSU led just 10-0 with 9:00 left in the third quarter but NU eventually gave in.
* Barkley had netted 0 yards rushing until midway through the third quarter, but then he broke loose for a 53-yard TD with a Barry Sanders type of jitterbug slalom into the open (right tackle pull on an interior gap play), making it 24-0 late in the 3q. Ballgame.
PENN STATE VS OSU
You probably didn’t watch the game. If so, and you’re interested how it unfolded, here’s what you missed:
* In scoring 35 points, PSU had one kickoff return for a TD, and two short-field drives (one set up by a turnover, the other set up by a 60-yard kickoff return to the red zone). They basically drove twice the entire game, and punched it in with 14 points on those drives.
And one of those TDs came on a call reversal in the end zone. OSU was initially awarded an INT in the end zone. Officials looked at it again and reversed it to a touchdown. I didn’t spend much time studying the replays of that play, but that short-field TD drive almost was blown by PSU.
Aside from the 14 points on the two field-length TD drives, PSU was shut down.
The 35 points is impressive, but they were out-gained 529-283. That figure is more telling of how this game went than the final score.
* Barkley returned the opening kickoff for a TD. Then OSU fumbled at their own 30 (on a good hit by PSU). PSU scored on a slot fade to Hamilton and it’s 14-0 in an instant.
* PSU had one decent drive in the first half, capped by a 36-yard TD run by Barkley, thanks to an OSU linebacker gap error. Barkley is so dangerous that he can turn a defensive mistake into an 80-yard memory-maker. But he can’t do much without blocking, and PSU’s run game structure isn’t diversified. Stop the zone read and you stop most of what they do in their run game. Stopping the zone read, these days vs PSU, means rushing Barkley with the unblocked man who is being optioned, and MAKE McSorley keep it.
McSorley kept it a few times against Michigan and did damage, but that was against man-to-man with one safety. His keepers are less effective against zone.
* OSU cut it to 21-10 but then OSU tried to kick off AWAY from Barkley, kicked it to No. 7 Koa Farmer a LINEBACKER. He returned it about 60 yards to the OSU 24-yard line.
* PSU then drew pass interference with a corner fade (their favorite red zone route) to slot WR Brandon Polk (OSU safety Damon Webb intercepted the pass, but OSU’s slot corner defender was called for pass interference). QB McSorley scored on the next play, a 6-yard QB sweep to the short side and PSU was up 28-10 without having to drive much at all, and 8:06 left in the half.
(McSorley is a quick, tricky, effective runner. But they have used him on the ground so much this year (96 rushes, 303 net yards, 122 yards in losses). PSU QBs have been sacked 20 times this year. I’m not sure how many of those were with McSorley, but almost all of them were. And he’s been nailed in the pocket many other times.
He’s barely 6-feet tall and built like a boy scout. And I swear he was reluctant to carry the ball in the fourth quarter last week. When PSU coaches called for a QB draw in the fourth quarter, he wasn’t as beaten as Michigan’s Devin Gardner was against Michigan State back in 2013 or whenever that was when Michigan State plastered him, but McSorley wasn’t loving life.
* Penn State, to its credit, FINISHED in the red zone against OSU, something they didn’t do at Iowa a few weeks ago.
* OSU marched right back and cut it to 28-17 late in the second quarter. At halftime, OSU had more yards, 244-130. But the one turnover and the special teams TD accounted for 14 points.
* OSU drove for a field goal on the opening possession of the 2H to cut it to 28-20. At that point, total yards were about 300-130 in favor of OSU.
* PSU then drove for a TD on a controversial 36-yard TD pass. PSU led 35-20 at that point, with about 5 minutes left in the third quarter.
* OSU was regaining momentum but lost the ball on a QB/RB exchange fumble.
* Then OSU forced a punt, which OSU blocked at midfield, still trailing by 15 with 11:40 to go.
* OSU then attacked an increasingly soft PSU zone and scored on a 30-plus yard post TD, making it look easy. Time to throw, picking apart the zone.
* PSU didn’t go deep to TE Gesicki much last week, or even intermediate, but did hook up with him on a jump ball to convert what looked like a huge third-and-13 with PSU leading by 8 with 8:45 to play. OSU DB Jordan Fuller (6-2, 207) covered him and harassed him all the way but Gesicki made the play. He’s so tough to cover. If Michigan State plays well and gets in position to win this game, they’ll have to survive some jumpballs to Gesicki.
That play to Gesicki and a 20-plus yard gain on a McSorley QB draw, and a 20-yard hitch (caught at 5 yards, then eluding a tackle) by PSU WR Saed Blacknall, gave PSU first and goal. A TD would have iced the game, but they settled for a field goal. PSU ran two QB zone read keepers for a total of 4 yards. On third down, they handed to Barkley on an inside zone for a loss of 2 as RG Mahon was beaten off the snap, maybe with crowd noise being a factor. Terrible three plays for PSU inside the 10. OSU dominated the trenches, McSorley didn’t want to keep the ball on those plays. Far different than his red zone TD runs vs Michigan.
* OSU answered with Barrett again attacking PSU’s zone. One of his completions was into a tight cover-two window. Other than that, he had all day to throw and didn’t have much trouble finding open WRs, including a pass interference in the end zone. Scored on a back-shoulder fade, extremely well-thrown, vs CB Amani Oruwariye. Good coverage on that one. That cut it to 38-33 with 4:20 left.
These throws JT Barrett was making? Brian Lewerke and MSU’s receivers can replicate them, if Lewerke has time to throw - which I think he will, most of the time.
* PSU was then feeble it its attempt to run clock with the run game. Zone reads, no chance. OSU’s optioned end lineman rushed Barkley, dared McSorley to keep it. Neither option was working. They went backward. Punt. PSU fully in tail-between-legs mode.
* OSU drove for the game-winning TD, this time with PSU playing man-to-man. Connected on a crossing route and an out route. Then a TD on a post, aided by a coverage bust.
If this had been a boxing match, OSU would have won with a 14th round KO while being ahead on the scorecards, 10 rounds to 4.
OBSERVATIONS:
* I don’t mean to disrespect their team. They have lots and lots of talented, athletic frames on this team at all positions except o-line.
* Penn State is the hardest-hitting defense I’ve seen in the Big Ten this year. But they weren’t hitting quite as hard in the last 20 minutes of the game, last week. Again, the back-to-back might have been a factor.
* They attack matchups more than any team on MSU’s schedule and perhaps as much as any team in the country. If you go man-to-man, you have to deal with Gesicki, Barkley or Hamilton in the slot - any of the three can be a mismatch.
And, most of the year, the zone read option is no pic-nic to deal with. But we’ll see if McSorley still has his wheels and a full gas tank.
THE MUST LIST
* The usual things: Stop the run, get heat on the QB. But really, we mean it this week.
Worse defenses than Michigan State have been able to stop the PSU run game and pressure McSorley. It’s a must that Michigan State do it too. If you don’t do it, you’ll lose by three TDs. If you do stop the run and pressure the QB, you might still lose by two TDs but more likely, you’re two big steps toward remaining competitive.
* Michigan State is capable of playing man or zone. Being able to do both, and building on MSU’s ability to disguise its coverages, will be key vs PSU.
Last year when Michigan State blitzed, PSU knew Michigan State would be in cover-three, and dialed up an out-and-up to beat it for a TD. That’s still the first time I’ve seen a team scheme to beat a blitz with an out and up. Who thinks they’re going to have TIME vs a blitz to beat you with an out and up? Well, PSU (with its deep ball success) and Michigan State with it’s problems, made that ugly marriage happen last year.
* PSU has not been throwing deep as much as last year. In fact there were many times last year when they would would send all receivers deep. That’s odd for a college team. Opponents often had underneath defenders waiting for digs and crossers that never game.
PSU would have time to throw and found repeated success hanging jumpballs in the air for Gesicki and the others.
PSU still has the potential to do that type of thing, but they haven’t had as much time to throw.
PSU has thrown underneath more this year, because that’s what opponents have been giving them.
So what will Michigan State do?
I didn’t think Michigan State could go zone against Penn State an leave Hamilton in the area of a LB/safety.
I thought Michigan State would have to go man-to-man, bring Josiah Scott over in “corners over” and match him up with No. 5 Hamilton most of the day, and sink or swim with it.
Then I saw the success OSU had with two-deep, quarters zone defense. Now I think that can work. But a pass rush is needed in order to make it work. MSU’s pass rush has been hot and cold this year. PSU’s pass protection has been cool and cold. Michigan State has a chance there.
And there will be times when Michigan State shows zone but then goes man-to-man. Will PSU read and attack accordingly? They’ve seen teams try it before. Michigan State will try it, and perhaps Scott can withstand some of the slot corner fades he will see from Hamilton.
* Ohio State played quarters coverage most of the game.
* On its first trip to the red zone, PSU attacked it on second-and-goal at the 12 by throwing to No. 5 Hamilton in the slot vs the field safety on a fake to the post and double move to the back corner (AKA a post-corner). OSU safety Damon Webb. INC.
Next play: TD pass to Hamilton vs man-to-man on a slot fade to the corner. Against press coverage vs CB Arnett, Hamilton just accelerated, had a quarter step on Arnett and somehow won the jumpball.
PSU went to Hamilton in the slot two straight times. One vs zone, one vs man.
PSU RUN GAME
* PSU runs a lot of zone read. Increasingly, teams are overplaying Barkley, making QB McSorley keep it. He is pretty nifty on keepers, but you’d rather pick his poison than Barkley’s.
So McSorley has been carrying the ball frequently, and he has been sacked a lot this year. He’s coming off two physical games vs OSU and Michigan. Is he still chucking and ducking at last year’s championship clip or will he start to look human and show some scratches and dents at some point?
* In fact, I would say TOO much for their offense is zone read. They should run power, traps and toss sweeps for Barkley. But they don’t. Not that I’ve seen.
* Their first run play of the game last week was a first-and-goal draw play. O-line in two-point stances, showed pass pro, then the the left tackle attempted to pull and isolate an inside linebacker with a lead block. Not the most confident, smashmouth style of play. Gisicki failed to seal DE Bosa on the back side, Barkley was corralled for a loss of 4.
PSU tries to finesse you with the run game. I don’t think they needed to build things that way. But they did, and now I think it hurts them.
* The misdirection PSU used vs Michigan won’t work as well against Michigan State. Michigan over-pursues and PSU used their speed against them a few costly times.
* PSU outscoring opponents 104-3 in the first quarter
Last year they had an amazing penchant of outscoring opponents in the third quarter. When it’s that regular, you have to tip your hat to PSU’s coaching.
PSU led OSU 14-3 in the first quarter last week (but OSU had a 106-33 edge in yardage with PSU at -10 rushing yards in the 1Q).
* Prior to last week, PSU led the nation in scoring defense at 9.6 per game. Now, PSU ranks no. 7 in the country in scoring defense.
That’s obviously pretty good, but Michigan State - believe it or not - will probably be the second-best offense they have seen this year.
Lewerke: “They’ve got a lot of exotic blitzes. The safeties are hard hitters. No. 2 (safety Marcus Allen) is not afraid of trying to make plays in the box instead of covering the pass.”
OFFENSE
* Like Northwestern, they love to leak the RB out as a receiver on any down - especially watch out on third-and-long vs man-to-man.
* Third-and-14 threw to Barkley on a short crossing route for 10 yards last week (had him as a wide out in empty. Had Barkley and TE Gisicki to one side, and WRs to the other. Sent everyone deep, tried to take the lid off the defense and hit Barkley underneath. Zone defense was the right call for OSU on this play.
* PSU loves, loves, loves to try to spring slot WRs deep vs safeties or linebackers.
* PSU had only one real scoring drive in the first half last week, aided by a defensive pass interference and a couple of run-around possession-route passes from McSorley, then a 36-yard TD run by Barkley on a gap error by OSU LB.
* Their run-blocking is mediocre. When they try to lean on you with double-teams and run inside with inside zones, they don’t get a lot of movement. They don’t knock down the door with that stuff. The McSorley option read layer of it makes it harder to stop, but they need it to be a complement to some power stuff. They’re lacking in that area.
Quarterback 9 Trace McSorley (6-0, 195, Sr./Jr.)
* Averaging 258 yards per game, 65 pct completions, 16 TDs, 5 INTs. Those stats look pretty good.
In conference games, he is averaging 263 yards passing per game (No. 3 in the Big Ten), No. 3 in pass efficiency.
* Last year he displayed an uncanny ability to hit deep passes, often in creative scramble mode.
* Has the extra element to keep on the zone read AND scramble to throw like a modern day Flutie. He was great against Michigan.
* Last week vs OSU was 17 of 29 for 192 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs, sacked twice.
* Rushed 13 times for 49 yards, with a long of 23, and one TD last week.
* He’s not perfect. Scrambled to the outside and missed TE Gisicki open on third-and-12 in the first quarter last week.
- Missed WR 84 Johnson on a crossing route in the first quarter last week, after McSorley took a pretty good ding on an option keeper one play earlier.
- Missed WR Hamilton on a slant on a first-and-10 RPO with 10:15 left in the third quarter and OSU riding momentum.
- Threw an INT, in the third quarter, underthrew WR DeAndre Thompins in the end zone on a deep, 36-yard post. OSU DB wrestled it away from him as they both fell to the ground jostling for the ball. But officials reviewed it and ruled it a TD. Probably a good call, but strange to see that one reversed. That gave PSU a 34-20 lead.
- With PSU losing momentum, but still up 35-20 with 12:30 left, he missed Hamilton vs press man-to-man on an out route at 15 yards. Threw behind him.
* Against Michigan, he had much more lively legs and willingness to run, coming off the bye week and capitalizing on cutbacks vs UM’s fast, aggressive, man-to-man defense, TD runs of 3 and 13 yards on zone read keepers. And a 9-yard TD keeper on a power read option against a white-flag waiving UM defense.
* On that same power look, McSorley pulled it out for an RPO pass to back-up QB Tommy Stevens for an 11-yard TD.
* Against UM threw an INT in the red zone in the 2q which temporarily changed the game for the negative. Threw an out route to TE Gesicki when Gesicki was turning for an out and up.
[QB 2 Tommy Stevens (6-5, 228, Jr./So.)]
* He is 9 of 17 on the year for 126 ayrds with 1 TD. He caught a TD pass against Northwestern.
I haven’t seen him play but if he had to play I suspect he would be functional.
Running Back 26 Saquon Barkley (5-11, 230, Jr./Jr.)
* Is PSU’s leading RECEIVER with 36 catches (13.1 per catch). (58 yards receiving per game).
* Leads the nation in total offense per game.
* Averaging 100 yards per game, 5.8 per carry (801 net yards rushing on the year).
+ Had 36 yards in losses last week vs OSU, netting 44 yards on the day on 21 carries (2.1 per).
+ 36-yard TD run last week on a zone read option handoff, with an OSU LB getting caught out of his gap.
* For non-math majors, that means Barkley netted only 8 yards on his 20 other carries aside from the 36-yard TD.
* Stopped after a gain of 2 on a third-and-6 late in the 2Q on a zone read option, a surprising call.
* He was held to 56 yards on 20 carries against Indiana.
* 75 yards on 16 carries against Northwestern, with 53 of those coming on one carry.
* 108 yards on 15 carries against Michigan, with 69 coming on one carry.
* 15 straight games with at least one TD (longest active FBS streatk)
+ 11-yard reception on a screen on third-and-10 last week in the first quarter.
* Four catches for 23 yards last week.
* They will use him at least once or twice on shovel passes.
* Barkley has three receiving TDs this season.
* Michigan had a miserable time trying to cover him with slowish MLB McCray. PSU tried to get Barkley open last week on a wheel route with 9:30 left in the game, but OSU LB Malik Harrison sprinted well with him down the sideline.
+ He beat UM’s McCray as a slot WR in man to man for a 42-yard TD on a simple release move to the inside, skinnier than a skinny post. QB with time to throw and vast green space to throw it into.
* Who covers him for Michigan State? Well, who covers Gesicki? Michigan State has problems here, whether in man to man or zone.
Chris Frey has had trouble in pass defense this year and in other years. PSU will be able to scheme and formation and know when they can put Barkley in a pass route against the strongside LB.
Michigan State CAN play man to man to the point of traveling Andrew Dowell everywhere with Barkley, but Dowell isn’t the type of pass defender that would lead you to do that. Plus, Michigan State (and most opponents) don’t want to purely play man-to-man against PSU - because then the zone read becomes more effective ,and the slot fades to Hamilton become more isolated, as do the jumpballs to Gesicki.
Is Antjuan Simmons ready to take on more of a role, and perhaps provide some matchup help on defense? Well, he was involved in an expensive bust on a pass to the TE last week.
Overall this isn’t a situation like when Michigan State put Justin Layne on Simmie Cobbs everywhere he went. With a mismatch TE and a good pass-catching RB, Michigan State doesn’t have the type of pass defense safety or linebacker who could attempt to lock either of them down.
So Michigan State will play its base zone and try to pay it well. Iowa had some success that way. Northwestern played decent defense too, stopping the run and holding PSU to 381 yards of total offense.
NU and Iowa had better slot-area LB cover men than Michigan State. But Michigan State has better corners than NU.
Frankly, I’m not sure what approach Michigan State will have in trying to cover Barkley and Gesicki. There will be times when a Khari Willis, or David Dowell or a Matt Morrissey get stuck vs Gesicki one-on-one, whether in zone or man, and you just have to backyard survive it. Again, a pass rush would help.
Stop the run, put them in third-and-long as many times as possible, then hope the pass rush can serve you in the bomb raid.
* PSU has talent at WR, and lots of it.
Wide Receiver (X)
84 Juwan Johnson (6-4, 226, Jr./So.)
* Dropped a shallow crosser in the fourth quarter last week.
* 30 catches, ranks second on the team.
* 1 TD. 45 yards receiving per game.
Wide Receiver (H) 5 DaeSean Hamilton (6-1, 206, Gr./Sr.)
* PSu’s all-time leading receiver.
* But he ranks only fourth this year in catches with 29, averaging 17 yards per catch and 61 yards per game (which is No. 1 on the team).
* 5 TD catches.
* They love him in the red zone on the slot corner fade. Heck they like to use him with that, anywhere on the field.
* Had only one catch last week but it was a 13-yard TD on a corner fade on third-and-goal vs man-to-man pressing CB Arnett of OSU. (One snap earlier, they went to him on a post corner, second and goal, INC on first possession vs OSU.)
* Had a momentum-building 30-yarder vs UM after UM had cut lead to 14-6, on third-and-seven, jump ball go route for about 30 yards to midfield vs good coverage.
* A few plays later went to him against on same play on fourth and 7 but UM good coverage by Lavert Hill in the slot knocked it away.
* After UM cut it to 14-13, first play of next drive, they went deep to him again for 30 yards, slot deep fade, changed momentum again, Simple outside release 50-50 ball this time against DB Mettelus of UM.
Wide Receiver (Z) 3 DeAndre Thompkins (5-11, 187, Sr./Jr.)
* 18 catches on the year.
* Probably their fastest receiver.
* 1 TD on the year.
13 Saeed Blacknall (6-3, 217, Sr./Sr.)
* 11 catches.
Tight End 88 Mike Gesicki (6-6, 250, Sr./Sr.)
* 30 catches, 4 TDs, 35 yards per game.
+ Can go deep, or work the drags and in routes as a possession chain-mover.
+ 9-yard catch on third-and-four in the first half last week, McSorley stepped up, feeling the rush and found No. 88 to move the chains.
* Had four catches for 28 yards last week midway through the first half. FInished with a team-high six catches for 57 yards.
* PSU didn’t go deep to him much last week, or even intermediate, but did hook up with him on a jump ball to convert what looked like a huge third-and-13 with PSU leading by 8 with 8:45 to play. OSU DB Jordan Fuller (6-2, 207) covered him and harassed him all the way.
That play and a 20-plus yard gain on a QB draw, and a 20-yard hitch (caught at 5 yards, then eluding a tackle) by WR Saed Blacknall, gave PSU first and goal. A TD would have iced the game, but they settled for a field goal. PSU ran two QB zone read keepers for a total of 4 yards. On third down, they hadned to Barkley on an inside zone for a loss of 2 as RG Mahon was beaten off the snap, maybe with crowd noise eing a factor.
* Vs Michigan, from the slot, jumpball fade on third-and-three to the 4-yard line for 20 yards with less than a minute left in the half, helping PSU regain control at 21-13 at the break.
18 Jonathan Holland (6-4, 248, Jr./So.)
* 2 catches on the year.
* Subbed in for Gesicki and PSU moved him out to the slot and he went deep on a nice release move, drew defensive holding. This is a back-up TE? Lots of talented, athletic frames on this team.
* This dude is going to be good. Big dude, runs well, runs a curl route with good feet. NFL potential, yet he’s a redshirt junior who doesn’t play much.
OFFENSIVE LINE:
* Very questionable at right tackle if Ryan Bates doesn’t play.
Left Tackle 52 Ryan Bates (6-4, 312, Jr./So.): questionable due to injury
71 Will Fries (6-6, 305, So./Fr.)
+ Not bad last week with a combo block out to the LB on a first-and-10 right tackle trap , but it only gained 1 yard. OSU CB flowed fast and chased it down from the back side.
Left Guard 74 Steven Gonzalez (6-4, 341, Jr./So.)
* Pulled him on a nice power read option 9 yard TD keeper (McSorley) against Michigan. Didn’t see that play last week.
Center 66 Connor McGovern (6-5, 312, So./So.)
* No opinion.
Right Guard 70 Brendan Mahon (6-4, 318, 5th/Sr.)
- Allowed a sack last week to DT Draymont Jones last week on a violent shoulder club & arm-over. Does Michigan State have anyone to attack him with anything similar? Well, Naquan Jones is getting there. Raequan Williams might be able to test No. 70 as well, in the pass rush.
Right Tackle 71 Will Fries (6-6, 305, So./Fr.) OR 77 Chasz Wright (6-7, 358, Sr./Jr.)
* 77 is not good.
* Second string prior to the OSU game.
* Started five games last season and the first three games of this year.
* He went into the game against OSU after Bates went down. He struggled.
* Beaten for sack in third quarter at NW.
DEFENSE
* All the d-linemen love to use the right handed shoulder club, to set up the arm-over (AKA short swim move).
* D-line went eight deep in the first quarter last week.
* Was surprised and impressed by how many reserves they used last week, and how early they used them. I counted eight second strings in the defensive backfield and d-line alone. They might not go that deep against an Michigan State team that doesn’t run tempo. But using that many players SHOULD help prevent November wear.
In the fourth quarter, they didn’t look so good.
* They bring some exotic blitzes, with various players from various angles. And they close quickly. MSU’s experience in playing vs Michigan will help in this task.
* When it’s time to finish a team tackle, the second and third men in hit hard, no matter who it is.
* On the d-line, PSU lost d-end Torrence Brown for the season to a knee injury at Iowa. He started four games as a sophomore last year. Pretty good player, they miss him, not great.
* They played a ton of zone last week. Cover-two, cover-four, some cover-three. Not the greatest zone defense you’ll find. Very tough, athletic individuals in the back, but OSU didn’t have much trouble finding open receivers in PSU’s zones. And this was an OSU WR crew that was criticized for getting no separation vs Oklahoma a few weeks ago.
Defensive End
48/19 Shareef Miller (6-5, 257, Jr./So.)
* Good player, not great.
* Tied for second on the team in sacks with 3.5.
* Quick, violent shoulder club with the right hand, setting up the left shoulder dip.
* Can transition and close like a linebacker.
- Got knocked off-balance vs a double-team on an inside zone on second-and-three in the first quarter last week but the OSU RB didn’t carry it to the hole.
+ Excellent one-step quickness when it’s green-light time to chase.
+ Had a coverage sack last week in the red zone in the first quarter.
34 Shane Simmons (6-3, 250, So./Fr.)
* Saw action last week in the first quarter.
* Quick lateral movement and can lay out with speed. This guy is second string? Athlete.
Defensive Tackle 52 Curtis Cothran (6-5, 301, Gr./Sr.)
* Good pass rusher, suspect vs double teams in the run game.
* Tied for second on the team in sacks with 3.5
* His pass rushing ability will be a challenge for MSU’s young offensive guards, who struggled last week.
+ Stunt, sack in the red zone last week to force a field goal attempt on third down. Received a pick from blitzing LB Cabinda, and looped around him, closed quickly for a defensive tackle.
- Allowed too much movement to a double team on a third-and-four zone read. RB Dobbins benefitted from the daylight for 20 yards.
- Allowed too much movement on a double team vs power, early in the 2H last week
- Consistently substandard vs double teams.
+ Beat UM center for a sack on opening drive.
+ Sack in red zone helped thwart a first-and-goal situation for Northwestern. NU had a penalty and threw INT on deep fade on third down (yes a deep fade on third and goal).
30 Kevin Givens (6-1, 287, Jr./So.)
* Plays with good, low center of gravity.
Defensive Tackle 41 Parker Cothren (6-4, 304, Gr./Sr.)
+ Quick with the shoulder club, or the blow to the back of the elbow to open the door and squeeze past an o-lineman.
[54 Robert Windsor (6-4, 303, Jr./So.)]
+ Good vs double team on inside zone on second down inside the 10-yard line last week in the second quarter, not giving an inch, keeping his feet pumping and made the tackle. Excellent play, with 5:29 left in the half and I think that was his first snap of the game. They have a lot of guys.
- Got moved by a double team on the next play, though.
* Not bad on the pass rush, works. Drew a holding call on OSU right guard, negating a 25-yard completion in the third quarter.
[56 Tyrell Chavis (6-3, 312, Sr.)]
* Saw action in the first quarter last week and played quite a bit through the middle portions of the game, although he’s not so great.
- Not so great. Was moved by an OSU double team on third-and-one in the first quarter.
- Not so great, moved out by the OSU center on a QB counter keeper for 21 yards in the second quarter. Safety Apke over-pursued on the play and left a gap unmanned; rare for PSU to make that error.
- Consistently bad against double-teams last week.
* Was getting blown off the ball by a double-team on a third-and-1 at midfield last week with 12 minutes left when OSU fumbled a handoff and PSU regained possession.
* Gerald Owens is better than 56, and 56 played a lot of plays last week.
Defensive End
97 Ryan Buckholz (6-6, 275, Jr.)
Stand up DE, short side, Hurt on first play vs OSU.
* Questionable for this game due to a lower body injury from last week.
* He’s not great, but they miss him.
* Has 17 tackes, 2 sacks, 2.5 TFLs
* His absence for most of the game last week hurt Penn State’s pass rush.
* Not as good as last week’s No. 97 of Northwestern, but they miss him.
* On UM’s 6-yard TD run late in the 1H, Buchholz got down-blocked inside, and UM ran power, pulling the RG, for a seemingly easy TD. But the lead to 14-13. UM TE down-blocked and found 40 MLB Cabinda to prevent him from pursuing.
18 Shaka Toney (6-3, 233, So./Fr.)
* Leads team with four sacks. Pass rush specialist.
* Played the entire drive on OSU’s first scoring drive. Was not spectacular.
+ Sack and fumble vs Northwestern at midfield midway through 1H when it was 0-0. Impressive play, long-arming the NU left tackle, blind-siding QB Thorson.
[99 Yetur Gross-Matos (6-5, 248, Fr./Fr.)]
* Played first-string DE last week after Buchholz went down with the injury.
* Long arms and long legs and can accelerate real well, but looks like he’s a year or so away from being an impact player. More of a Robert Bowers type, now. He has trouble winning the hands battles.
LINEBACKERS
Excellent trio. Good pair of inside linebackers, and the slot man can run, hit and cover.
Will Linebacker 43 Manny Bowen (6-1, 226, Jr./Jr.)
+ Stiff, focused hit on OSU WR Paris Campbell resulted in a fumble, returned to the OSU 23-yard line, set up a 14-0 lead just four minutes into the game.
[6 Cam Brown (6-5, 227, So./So.)]
* Saw action in the second quarter last week.
Middle Linebacker 40 Jason Cabinda (6-1, 234, Sr./Sr.)
* Third-team All-Big Ten by coaches last year.
* Runs and pursues the alley exceptionally well.
* Last week’s MLB, Paddy Fisher of NU, was/is excellent. Cabinda is a little better right now. But Fisher played behind better d-tackles, and a better strong-side DE.
[47 Brandon Smith (6-0, 231, Gr./Sr.)]
* Started a possession in the second quarter after PSU went up 21-3 last week.
Sam Linebacker 7 Koa Farmer (6-1, 237, Sr./Jr.)
+ Moves like a safety when playing in the slot, in space, but angular and strong. Displayed both in eluding a block and tackling RB Mike Weber on a bubble for a loss of 5 in the first quarter last week.
PASS DEFENSE TRENDS & SCHEMES
* Showed cover-three (three deep) but rolled into cover-two (cloud/halves) at the snap on second-and-long last week, leaving the TE open in the first quarter, but he dropped it. QB needs time to read the changing coverages.
* In the nickel, in long-yardage, they went cover-six vs OSU in the first quarter (cover-two on the short side, cover-four on the field side with third-string CB Haley (15) sinking deep.
* OSU cut it to 21-9 with a pass-oriented drive midway through the first half. They hit a deep crosser for about 36, then scored on a 14-yard skinny post. PSU had a two-deep zone but there was too much space between the safeties. Looked like a bust.
* On the 36-yarder earlier in the drive, it looked like OSU ran a “dagger concept.” That means they used two receivers to “take the top off the secondary” with deep routes, occupying deep defenders; then they brought a crosser from the other side of the field at about 20 yards underneath the blown-off top of the secondary.
* OSU cut it to 35-27 with a 38-yard TD vs soft cover-four, lots of room between the safeties, not much obstruction in getting into the route, with 11:00 to play.
* PSU’s run game then failed miserably. QB McSorley unwilling to pull the ball and keep on zone read. RT 77 Chasz Wright getting beat on second down.
* Then OSU regained possession with about 3 minutes to play. PSU opted for man-to-man and blitzes but OSU carved it up with an out route, a shallow crosser. And then scored the game-winner on a seam route in cover-three. He had all day to throw.
* OSU made PSU’s zone defense look a little soft.
JT Barrett passed for 328 yards on 33 of 39 passing with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Those numbers are sparkling. But he had time to throw, and OSU’s often-maligned WRs were able to find green space.
Free Safety 2 Marcus Allen (6-2, 207, Sr./Sr.)
* Quality player, gets low and hits better than most linebackers. Short-area burst to physicality is impressive with so many of these guys. In a short amount of space, they break down and hammer you with a text-book, angular hit and wrap.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year.
[4 Nick Scott (5-11, 199, Sr./Jr.)]
* Saw action in the first quarter last week.
* Versatile enough to be trusted with press coverage in the slot on fourth-and-eight in the first quarter last week.
Strong Safety 28 Troy Apke (6-1, 198, Sr./Sr.)
+ Sticky player, closely with quickness and made tackle with grappling-hook arms and hands on OSU WR K.J. Hill on a crossing route. Good tackle in space.
* Sharp player, not the thickest, most physical guy, but he will go full-tilt and get to you.
Field Cornerback 15 Grant Haley (5-9, 190, Sr./Sr.)
* Moves to slot CB in the nickel defense in passing situations.
- Called for pass interference on a fade in the end zone last week in the second quarter.
[21 Amani Oruwariye (6-1, 209, Sr./Jr.)]
* Plays field CB in the nickel defense. * Saw action with the regulars late in the first quarter. Reacted well to a pump-and-go, got depth, smooth coverage. This guy is second-string? He would start for a lot of teams in the Big Ten.
* INT on third and goal jump ball vs Northwestern in the first half.
Boundary Cornerback 1 Christian Campbell (6-1, 194, Sr./Sr.)
* Menacing hitter from the CB position.
+ Got home an blitz for sack and strip vs UM in the fourth quarter.
[5 Tariq Castro-Fields (6-0, 185, Fr./Fr.)]
* Saw action in the first quarter last week.
= With him at boundary CB in cover-two, OSU ran a hitchpump-and-go deep. Castro-Fields bit hard on the pump and safety Apke had the cover-two hole deep down the sideline. Apke broke it up, and JT Barrett didn’t lead him enough to the sideline. WR owned the “red line” cushion to the sideline but Barrett missed him.
38 Lamont Wade (5-9, 196, Fr./Fr.)
* Was beaten on a deep fade to the 5-yard line in the 2q vs Michigan. Didn’t see No. 38 Wade last week vs OSU)
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Place kicker Tyler Davis has struggled. 7 of 14 on field goals. 0 for 4 from 30 to 39 yards. 2 of 4 from 40 to 49 yards.
* PSU is dangerous on kick return, and they need to be.
* When cutting the lead to 35-27, OSU opted to go with a squib kick and covered PSU at the 29-yard line, rather than kicking to Barkley. Will Michigan State do the same? Might not be a bad idea.
OSU squibbed it to Barkley after cutting the lead to 38-33 with 4:14 left, tackling him at the 15.
ADD IT ALL UP
Is PSU mature and focused and healed enough to band together, go on the road, take care of business against a defense that will probably stop their running attack? Is PSU ready to provide good pass protection for McSorley so he can probe some mismatches in the pass game?
Is MSU’s pass rush ready to stand in the face of all that talent?
Is McSorley starting to show some dents and scratches? Will the zone read keeper aspect of their offense continue to stall?
Penn State leads the Big Ten in conference games and is third in the Big Ten in sacks in conference games. They rush the passer well on third down, so it’s key to stay on schedule and stay out of third and long.
I’m not big on predicting heroic A-plus outings. One of those is possible for Michigan State, but a solid B to B-plus outing is more likely.
That would mean providing good pass protection most of the game, but it’s not likely to expect perfect pass protection like OSU had most of the night.
That would mean a big day from the Michigan State pass rush, like four or five sacks. That’s not likely, but three sacks and good heat is possible.
Can Michigan State hang with Gesicki and Hamilton and Barkley in pass defense individually? I’m not sure what those matchups will end up looking like. Again, a pass rush would be an immense help. Expecting Michigan State to go unscathed in these matchups is foolhardy. PSU is going to score some blows here. Michigan State needs to be ready to answer with strong offense of its own.
MSU’s run game needs to prove its manhood. PSU will be putting the crown of their helmets on LJ Scott’s hands. They hit hard. They’ll test him. I’m not confident he will pass. Michigan State may have to try to win with Holmes and London getting more than half of the carries.
MSU’s blockers were getting full heat this week to step it up. Michigan State coaches usually do a good job of getting progress from areas of emphasis. I am expecting Michigan State to rush for at least 135 yards, and should have a goal to exceed the 158 they had against Michigan.
Penn State’s run defense has been pretty good, but their DTs aren’t great against the run. Their run defense isn’t as good as Northwestern’s, and we can expect MSU’s run blocking to be sharper, more determined than it was against Northwestern.
As it’s been for the past few weeks, that means a lot of it falls back into the hands of Lewerke. If he has time, which I think he will have for most pass attempts, I like his ability to find receivers in PSU’s zone coverages, and I like MSU’s receivers’ chances of getting there and finishing, and I like MSU’s chances of scheming some good route combinations for those zone defenses, and I think the Michigan State run game will do a decent job of setting up Lewerke with manageable chains.
I think Michigan State can get into position to score in the high 20s against these guys. Keeping Penn State below 30 means taking care of the ball, giving up nothing goofy on special teams, containing Barkley’s ground game and surviving the Hamilton/Barkley/Gisecki pass game jump balls fades and isolations. Michigan State can contain Barkley for most of the game but Michigan State can’t allow the single long run, which seems to be a specialty of Barkley’s. From there, the x-factor is MSU’s pass defense against that PSU talent in the pass game. The x-factor to that x-factor is how much time McSorley gets to throw, or how much magic he can create on the run, and whether he might be starting to feel the effects of a long, physical season and a gruesome three weeks.
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