Ok, so I will post the fully updated matrices toward morning (once Kenpom updates his CSV file) but I ran some quick numbers on the race. Obviously, things have tightened a bit since Thursday, but it is perhaps not as bad as some may think. Right now, MSU still has over a 1.5 game lead over Michigan in expected wins. Furthermore I project a ~75% chance that MSU finishes at 17-3 or better.
As for the Big Ten race:
MSU to win or tie: 83%
UofM to win or tie: 29%
Purdue to win or tie: 9%
Odd of outright MSU title: 65%
(Insert my standard caveats here)
Bottom line: MSU is still in great shape, despite the setback today. As I said before, an MSU loss today just means the race isn't over yet. More numbers tomorrow morning...
As for the Big Ten race:
MSU to win or tie: 83%
UofM to win or tie: 29%
Purdue to win or tie: 9%
Odd of outright MSU title: 65%
(Insert my standard caveats here)
Bottom line: MSU is still in great shape, despite the setback today. As I said before, an MSU loss today just means the race isn't over yet. More numbers tomorrow morning...
