It's March, baby.
I will do my typical detailed update on Monday, but here is where MSU stands after last night's dominating, statement win over Maryland.
MSU's odds to win the Big Ten are now at about 28%. MSU's odds to win out are now at 31% and Maryland's odds to win out are only 30%.
In other words, if MSU can win out, the odds are in our favor to share the Big Ten Title, as it is more likely than not that Maryland drops at least one of their final two games. Kenpom currently has Maryland as a narrow underdog at Rutgers.
As for the chances of MSU getting a double bye in the BTT, I handicap that at around 90%, based on my simulations. The tie-breakers combinations are nasty, so this is still a little tricky. The most likely out come (assuming all the favored teams win) is now this:
1. Maryland (14-6)
2. Wisconsin (13-7)
3. Penn State (13-7)
4. Michigan State (13-7)
5. Illinois (13-7)
6. Iowa (12-8)
7. Ohio State (11-9)
8. Michigan (10-10)
9. Rutgers (10-10)
10. Indiana (10-10)
11. Purdue (9-11)
12. Minnesota (8-12)
13. Nebraska (3-17)
14. Northwestern (1-19)
That said, I am not 100% sure about Wisconsin vs. Penn State for the 2/3 seed. The BTT tiebreaker rules seem a little different this year, and frankly... I am not 100% sure how to interpret them. I am also seeing online that Penn State would get the 2-seed... Let's cross that bridge when we get to it.
I will do my typical detailed update on Monday, but here is where MSU stands after last night's dominating, statement win over Maryland.
MSU's odds to win the Big Ten are now at about 28%. MSU's odds to win out are now at 31% and Maryland's odds to win out are only 30%.
In other words, if MSU can win out, the odds are in our favor to share the Big Ten Title, as it is more likely than not that Maryland drops at least one of their final two games. Kenpom currently has Maryland as a narrow underdog at Rutgers.
As for the chances of MSU getting a double bye in the BTT, I handicap that at around 90%, based on my simulations. The tie-breakers combinations are nasty, so this is still a little tricky. The most likely out come (assuming all the favored teams win) is now this:
1. Maryland (14-6)
2. Wisconsin (13-7)
3. Penn State (13-7)
4. Michigan State (13-7)
5. Illinois (13-7)
6. Iowa (12-8)
7. Ohio State (11-9)
8. Michigan (10-10)
9. Rutgers (10-10)
10. Indiana (10-10)
11. Purdue (9-11)
12. Minnesota (8-12)
13. Nebraska (3-17)
14. Northwestern (1-19)
That said, I am not 100% sure about Wisconsin vs. Penn State for the 2/3 seed. The BTT tiebreaker rules seem a little different this year, and frankly... I am not 100% sure how to interpret them. I am also seeing online that Penn State would get the 2-seed... Let's cross that bridge when we get to it.
