Last night's win was clearly huge. I had some family stuff going on yesterday and have only made into the early part of the 2nd half so far, so I won't comment on the game itself much beyond that.
MSU's title odds are now back up to 16%. Maryland has a big game tonight at Minnesota which Kenpom says is a pick'em. If the Terps lose... MSU suddenly is back in control of their own destiny...
Here is another tidbit. I have been looking through some of the Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios and it is still a mess. There are still 67 million different possible outcomes and there will be multiple team tie-breakers, so it is a bear to sort out. That said, I am seeing a clear trend in regards to MSU securing a Top 4 seed with a double bye:
The team that is the single biggest threat to MSU getting the double bye is Wisconsin. Watch the Badgers closely down the stretch.
If MSU can win 2 (or 3 more) of the last three games, than this is all moot. Also, if MSU loses all three, it is also moot. But, MSU is still most likely to finish 12-8 and if they do, their BTT seed in large part will depend on what Wisconsin does.
As a look at the various scenarios, the biggest swing game in Wisconsin's final game of the season at Indiana. If the Badgers get that road win, most scenarios have a 12-8 MSU team dropping to 5th place. That is not ideal. AND, that is assuming that Wisconsin losses Thursday night in Ann Arbor. If Wisconsin wins that game, MSU might need to finish 13-7 get the double bye.
I am going to keep tinkering with the numbers to see if I can get a bit more quantitative, but that is my current impression.
MSU's title odds are now back up to 16%. Maryland has a big game tonight at Minnesota which Kenpom says is a pick'em. If the Terps lose... MSU suddenly is back in control of their own destiny...
Here is another tidbit. I have been looking through some of the Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios and it is still a mess. There are still 67 million different possible outcomes and there will be multiple team tie-breakers, so it is a bear to sort out. That said, I am seeing a clear trend in regards to MSU securing a Top 4 seed with a double bye:
The team that is the single biggest threat to MSU getting the double bye is Wisconsin. Watch the Badgers closely down the stretch.
If MSU can win 2 (or 3 more) of the last three games, than this is all moot. Also, if MSU loses all three, it is also moot. But, MSU is still most likely to finish 12-8 and if they do, their BTT seed in large part will depend on what Wisconsin does.
As a look at the various scenarios, the biggest swing game in Wisconsin's final game of the season at Indiana. If the Badgers get that road win, most scenarios have a 12-8 MSU team dropping to 5th place. That is not ideal. AND, that is assuming that Wisconsin losses Thursday night in Ann Arbor. If Wisconsin wins that game, MSU might need to finish 13-7 get the double bye.
I am going to keep tinkering with the numbers to see if I can get a bit more quantitative, but that is my current impression.
