Unfreaking believable!
Full disclosure: I was on tape delay during family time, but I accidentally saw the half-time score. Despite seeing that, I was still oddly optimistic that MSU could pull it out. Then, I watched the game... WOW! Coupled with the loss to Maryland, here is where I have things:
Odds to win / share the B1G Title:
1. MSU = 73%
2. Maryland = 72%
3. Wisconsin = 45%
4. Illinois = 17%
Both MSU and Maryland project to be about a 4-point favorite on Senior Day, so both teams have a roughly 65% chance to win. My, have things changed over the past few days!
As for the BTT, MSU has now locked in a double bye. I just updated the tie-breakers and I can give good probabilities for seeding:
1-seed: 51%
2-seed: 32%
3-seed: 14%
4-seed: 3%
If MSU beat OSU, the odds for the 1-seed go up to ~70%.
MSU basically now will win any 1-1 tie-breaker with Maryland, as MSU has an equal or better record against Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, and Iowa. So, the only way that MSU would lose the 1-seed is if:
1) MSU end up in a 3-way tie with Wisconsin and Maryland
2) MSU winds up in a tie with just Wisconsin and Maryland is in 3rd alone
In both cases, Wisconsin gets the 1-seed, as they went 1-0 against the Twerps. That said, if all the favorites win, the updated projected standings (with tiebreakers) are:
1. MSU (14-6)
2. Maryland (14-6)
3. Illinois (13-7)
4. Wisconsin (13-7)
5. Penn State (12-8)
6. Iowa (11-9)
7. Ohio State (11-9)
8. Michigan (10-10)
9. Purdue (10-10)
10. Rutgers (10-10)
11. Indiana (10-10)
12. Minnesota (8-12)
13. Northwestern (2-18)
14. Nebraska (2-18)
Finally, if I use these final standing and simulate the Big Ten Tournament, I get:
1. MSU = 23%
2. Maryland = 17%
7. Ohio State = 13% (again, Kenpom LOVES the Buckeyes...)
4. Wisconsin = 9%
3. Illinois = 8%
8. Michigan = 8%
6. Iowa = 7%
5. Penn State = 6%
9. Purdue = 3%
11. Indiana = 3%
12. Minnesota = 2%
10. Rutgers = 2%
13. Northwestern = LOL
14. Nebraska = LOL
Finally, I should also point out that MSU just moved up to #6 in Kenpom, which is the historical cut-off for the majority of the eventual National Champions.
Sunday and the days after could be special in East Lansing, once again.
Full disclosure: I was on tape delay during family time, but I accidentally saw the half-time score. Despite seeing that, I was still oddly optimistic that MSU could pull it out. Then, I watched the game... WOW! Coupled with the loss to Maryland, here is where I have things:
Odds to win / share the B1G Title:
1. MSU = 73%
2. Maryland = 72%
3. Wisconsin = 45%
4. Illinois = 17%
Both MSU and Maryland project to be about a 4-point favorite on Senior Day, so both teams have a roughly 65% chance to win. My, have things changed over the past few days!
As for the BTT, MSU has now locked in a double bye. I just updated the tie-breakers and I can give good probabilities for seeding:
1-seed: 51%
2-seed: 32%
3-seed: 14%
4-seed: 3%
If MSU beat OSU, the odds for the 1-seed go up to ~70%.
MSU basically now will win any 1-1 tie-breaker with Maryland, as MSU has an equal or better record against Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, and Iowa. So, the only way that MSU would lose the 1-seed is if:
1) MSU end up in a 3-way tie with Wisconsin and Maryland
2) MSU winds up in a tie with just Wisconsin and Maryland is in 3rd alone
In both cases, Wisconsin gets the 1-seed, as they went 1-0 against the Twerps. That said, if all the favorites win, the updated projected standings (with tiebreakers) are:
1. MSU (14-6)
2. Maryland (14-6)
3. Illinois (13-7)
4. Wisconsin (13-7)
5. Penn State (12-8)
6. Iowa (11-9)
7. Ohio State (11-9)
8. Michigan (10-10)
9. Purdue (10-10)
10. Rutgers (10-10)
11. Indiana (10-10)
12. Minnesota (8-12)
13. Northwestern (2-18)
14. Nebraska (2-18)
Finally, if I use these final standing and simulate the Big Ten Tournament, I get:
1. MSU = 23%
2. Maryland = 17%
7. Ohio State = 13% (again, Kenpom LOVES the Buckeyes...)
4. Wisconsin = 9%
3. Illinois = 8%
8. Michigan = 8%
6. Iowa = 7%
5. Penn State = 6%
9. Purdue = 3%
11. Indiana = 3%
12. Minnesota = 2%
10. Rutgers = 2%
13. Northwestern = LOL
14. Nebraska = LOL
Finally, I should also point out that MSU just moved up to #6 in Kenpom, which is the historical cut-off for the majority of the eventual National Champions.
Sunday and the days after could be special in East Lansing, once again.
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