This topic has been danced around a bit, but consider the following.
IU shot 10 of 20 from three. An the season, they are a poor 33% from three. Basically they hit 3 more triples than they usually hit last night. That is 9 points.
As for MSU's FT shooting, Cash was 4-4, but as for the rest of the team:
Goins: 1-2
McQuaid :1-2
Those guy combined shoot right around 75%. So, 3 out of 4 would be more normal. That is one more point. And then there is:
Tillman: 1-4
Ward: 1-9
Both guys have been shooting great recently, but for the year their averages are closer to 66%. So, for Ward, that would be 6 for 9 (5 more points) and for Xavier, that would be 1 to 2 more.
That is a 16 to 17 point swing. With those points, MSU wins by over ten points, right around where the point spread was set. Make this change and MSU has a sluggish, bounce back win after a week off.
Sometimes things just don't go your way. But, is there any reason to think that other teams will continue to over-achieve or that MSU will suddenly not be able to shoot? I don't think that is the most likely outcome.
IU shot 10 of 20 from three. An the season, they are a poor 33% from three. Basically they hit 3 more triples than they usually hit last night. That is 9 points.
As for MSU's FT shooting, Cash was 4-4, but as for the rest of the team:
Goins: 1-2
McQuaid :1-2
Those guy combined shoot right around 75%. So, 3 out of 4 would be more normal. That is one more point. And then there is:
Tillman: 1-4
Ward: 1-9
Both guys have been shooting great recently, but for the year their averages are closer to 66%. So, for Ward, that would be 6 for 9 (5 more points) and for Xavier, that would be 1 to 2 more.
That is a 16 to 17 point swing. With those points, MSU wins by over ten points, right around where the point spread was set. Make this change and MSU has a sluggish, bounce back win after a week off.
Sometimes things just don't go your way. But, is there any reason to think that other teams will continue to over-achieve or that MSU will suddenly not be able to shoot? I don't think that is the most likely outcome.
