Hello, Bunker! I'm sorry that I haven't had time to chop the last two games down to digestible half-hour snacks--I am in the thick of it with physical therapy school applications being due on October 1st. After that I will be able to devote much more time to my college football fun hobby/obsession/pathological disorder. I still have watched the last two games a couple times and wanted to give my thoughts on where MSU football is at right now. Here's why we're screwed, and why it'll all be OK.
WHY WE'RE SCREWED
THE SIVER LININGS
LG: BAllen, McGowan
C: JAllen, BAllen, McGowan
RG: Clark, McGowan, Machado
RT: Kieler, Clark, Machado
That doesn't even include Clemons, who used to be good at football, too. If he can get oiled up, that's a potential rotation of 9 on the OLine, which I've never seen MSU or any other team have. Obviously, this entire unit and some individuals especially need to improve, but there is at least a lot of grass-fed, free-range beef there.
WHY WE'RE SCREWED
- INJURIES - Boy, we had a nice two-year run of injury luck, didn't we? I almost forgot what a gut-punch it is to have key players go down. Davis going down sucked; thank goodness we recruit the hell out of that position. Supposedly Kieler will be back, but he's still on crutches on the sideline...I'm not a physical therapist yet, but I can tell you that it's generally not a one week process to go from non-weight bearing to playing right tackle. The Copeland injury was, literally, back-breaking. He, as @jim comparoni noted, "oozed talent" before going down and was the one secondary member who seemed to have a death grip when he tackled. If Conklin is out for the year, we're eff'd, but that he was standing on the sideline with a brace on is potentially good. MSU is deep at TE, but Price is a star (who, along with Lyles, needs about triple the number of targets he's getting). Here's hoping that inversion roll can be walked off. Williamson had better come back, or I will be a sad, sad panda.
- THE SECONDARY - I actually thought MSU would be OK this year after the WMU game, because I liked how #13, #7, and #26 played, and assumed #9 would figure out how to take an angle/make a tackle. With VC out, the corner position has been meh. Cox seems from my eyes to be playing well, but we only have one of him. We all know #9 has struggled and our third safety made a bad life choice, but #26 has been pretty nice. Please let him not be really hurt. This unit now has some problems. Receivers are very open down the field, and the first guy misses the tackle A LOT. The proposition of Braxton Miller 1-on-1 in the open field vs #39 is very scary to me. The guys we have will improve, but it may not be enough. Will a true freshman be able to step in and contribute?
- OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY - To this point, MSU's offense has been overly conservative. I don't think this can be disputed: MSU has averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The Air Force game, as Jim and @Paul Konyndyk noted in the V-Cast, was the apotheosis of this: 1.8 YPC, 10.7 YPA. The only way such a strategy can be explained is that MSU is committed to practicing the run game in hopes of improving it for later, and maybe protecting Cook from hits (although MSU's pass pro has been outstanding). Further, the splits on first down are particularly extreme. I don't have time right now to compile the data, but MSU runs on first down over 70% of the time. This is, objectively, bad. MSU's passing game is outstanding, and will become even more so when Cook/Warner target the tight ends and backs with more passes. In MSU's big games, look for them to throw it around a lot.
THE SIVER LININGS
- BUILDIN' DEPTH - MSU has done an amazing job of playing lots of guys on defense this year. The Kieler and Conklin injuries have forced MSU to build a deep playing group on the OLine, which we all know is important to Staten & Bollman. IF, and that is a huge IF, Conklin and Kieler come back by the time the schedule gets tougher (I'm talking 10/17 and after), MSU could potentially play a very deep OL group of
LG: BAllen, McGowan
C: JAllen, BAllen, McGowan
RG: Clark, McGowan, Machado
RT: Kieler, Clark, Machado
That doesn't even include Clemons, who used to be good at football, too. If he can get oiled up, that's a potential rotation of 9 on the OLine, which I've never seen MSU or any other team have. Obviously, this entire unit and some individuals especially need to improve, but there is at least a lot of grass-fed, free-range beef there.
- THE DEFENSIVE LINE - Just enjoy this unit. They are insanely talented and deep and good. Calhoun turned the CMU game around by himself. Cooper and Evans have looked the part off the bench. Heath and McDowell are absolute monsters. As Drake & Future tell us, What a Time To Be Alive.
- WE HAVE CONNOR COOK - He's been a bit inconsistent, and was inaccurate against WMU. The receivers after AB16 are super inconsistent. DantoWarner don't let him throw on first down or to the TEs enough. But MSU has a QB who can step up and throw darts anywhere on the field behind an OLine that can protect him (KNOCK ON WOOD RE: CONKLIN). Our passing game has ridiculously high potential.
- TALENT - MSU has good players, and a ton of em. The depth is amazing. So many backups have stepped in and shown talent. Evaluation, recruiting, player development, coaching. I <3 MD.
