A few days ago, @MSUStudent asked about some stat analysis of the MSU / Michigan match-up. I have been a bit busy this week, so I did not get a chance to look into this in great detail, but here is a little taste. What I did for this analysis was to look as MSU and UofM's numbers at home vs. away. I also filtered out all of the games vs. mid to low majors which tends to skew the home data in particular.
When Michigan has the ball:
As one might expect, Michigan's offense has been weaker on the road while MSU's defense has been stronger at home. Perhaps most notable is that on the road, UofM is only shooting 33% as a team from the 3, which is a full 3% below their number at home. MSU's 3-point defense has oddly been slightly better on the road, but both numbers are within a percent of 30%. As for 2-point defense, UofM is again 3% worse on the road (50% vs. 53%) while MSU's 2-point D has been quite a bit better at home (39% vs. 45%).
Michigan has a little more trouble with TOs and offensive rebounding on the road, but these numbers are close (within 2%). However, UofM's FT rate on the road is almost 4% worse away from Crisler (26% vs. 30%... I know, you're shocked right?) MSU does tend to force more TOs at home (17% vs. 14%), but MSU oddly has done worse on the defensive boards at Breslin (32% for the opponent vs. 29% on the road). MSU's FT rate on defense is essentially the same at home or away.
Add all these factors up and MSU's offensive efficiency in this subset of games has been over 10 points per 100 possessions better at home (102 vs. 92) while UofM's has been almost 10 points / 100 poss worse on the road (103 vs. 112).
When MSU has the ball.
Oddly, MSU has actually shot the ball slightly worse at Breslin than on the road this year against high major competition, MSU's 2-point % is 3.5% lower (53% vs. 56.5%), but MSU has shot a bit better from 3 (36.5% vs 35%). But, MSU has take much better care of the ball (16% vs 21% turn over rate) and done better on the offensive boards (37% vs 32%) which has led to a 7 point per 100 poss improvement in offensive efficiency at home. Another odd stat is that MSU has a better FT rate on the road vs. at home (38% vs. 31%)
Meanwhile, Michigan's defense look about the same on the road as it does in Ann Arbor. They give up a higher 3pt% (31% vs. 28%) but they do a little better at 2-pt defense (45% vs. 46.5%) which makes the eFG% basically the same. Michigan's TO rate is about the same both home and away, but they do a better job on the defensive glass on the road (25% vs. 28% for their opponents). It is also notable that UofM's opponents shoot WAY more FTs on the road vs the friendly confines of Crisler Arena (31% vs. 21%... again SHOCKED)
Taken all together, the MSU does seem to have a pretty significant advantage at home. If I take the raw efficiency numbers, they imply that Michigan should be favored at home in this match-up by about 4 points, while in Breslin, MSU should be favored by almost 5 points. As I recall, that was pretty much spot on what the spreads actually were. In other words, MSU should have about a 9-point advantage compared to the game in Ann Arbor. That seems crazy high, but that it what the numbers are saying to me.
When Michigan has the ball:
As one might expect, Michigan's offense has been weaker on the road while MSU's defense has been stronger at home. Perhaps most notable is that on the road, UofM is only shooting 33% as a team from the 3, which is a full 3% below their number at home. MSU's 3-point defense has oddly been slightly better on the road, but both numbers are within a percent of 30%. As for 2-point defense, UofM is again 3% worse on the road (50% vs. 53%) while MSU's 2-point D has been quite a bit better at home (39% vs. 45%).
Michigan has a little more trouble with TOs and offensive rebounding on the road, but these numbers are close (within 2%). However, UofM's FT rate on the road is almost 4% worse away from Crisler (26% vs. 30%... I know, you're shocked right?) MSU does tend to force more TOs at home (17% vs. 14%), but MSU oddly has done worse on the defensive boards at Breslin (32% for the opponent vs. 29% on the road). MSU's FT rate on defense is essentially the same at home or away.
Add all these factors up and MSU's offensive efficiency in this subset of games has been over 10 points per 100 possessions better at home (102 vs. 92) while UofM's has been almost 10 points / 100 poss worse on the road (103 vs. 112).
When MSU has the ball.
Oddly, MSU has actually shot the ball slightly worse at Breslin than on the road this year against high major competition, MSU's 2-point % is 3.5% lower (53% vs. 56.5%), but MSU has shot a bit better from 3 (36.5% vs 35%). But, MSU has take much better care of the ball (16% vs 21% turn over rate) and done better on the offensive boards (37% vs 32%) which has led to a 7 point per 100 poss improvement in offensive efficiency at home. Another odd stat is that MSU has a better FT rate on the road vs. at home (38% vs. 31%)
Meanwhile, Michigan's defense look about the same on the road as it does in Ann Arbor. They give up a higher 3pt% (31% vs. 28%) but they do a little better at 2-pt defense (45% vs. 46.5%) which makes the eFG% basically the same. Michigan's TO rate is about the same both home and away, but they do a better job on the defensive glass on the road (25% vs. 28% for their opponents). It is also notable that UofM's opponents shoot WAY more FTs on the road vs the friendly confines of Crisler Arena (31% vs. 21%... again SHOCKED)
Taken all together, the MSU does seem to have a pretty significant advantage at home. If I take the raw efficiency numbers, they imply that Michigan should be favored at home in this match-up by about 4 points, while in Breslin, MSU should be favored by almost 5 points. As I recall, that was pretty much spot on what the spreads actually were. In other words, MSU should have about a 9-point advantage compared to the game in Ann Arbor. That seems crazy high, but that it what the numbers are saying to me.
