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State of State- August (Preseason Edition-Offense)

maul286

All-Bubba Smith
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Apr 11, 2003
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Who’s ready for some Spartan Football? I know that I am. Talking season is over now, and the pads have gone on. For the first time, I’ve decided to extend the State of State series by adding a Season Preview. This preview will be broken down into the following sections: Positional Breakdown (Offense-Defense/Special Teams), Season Prediction, and Hot Takes for MSU/the Big Ten for the 2022 season. Without further ado, let’s get into it.

Positional Breakdown (Offense):


QB

Returning Players:

Starter: Payton Thorne

Backups: Noah Kim, Hamp Fay

Newcomer: Katin Houser


Synopsis:

Last year, we all know what happened. Payton Thorne returned from the 2020 campaign, and fought off a strong effort by Temple transfer Anthony Russo to cement himself as the new QB1 at MSU. Thorne had his ups and downs, but was very good in his first year starting. The question that I’ve asked myself recently is: how good was Thorne last year? The resounding answer is pretty damn good when you look at historical passing stats for MSU QBs.


RankPlayerYardsYear
1Jeff Smoker3,3952003
2Kirk Cousins3,3162011
3Payton Thorne3,2402021
4Connor Cook3,2142014
5Connor Cook3,1312015
6Brian Lewerke3,0792019
7Drew Stanton3,0772005
8Kirk Cousins2,8252010
9Brian Lewerke2,7932017
10Connor Cook2,7552013


Thorne’s 2021 season ranked third all time in MSU, and he also set the MSU record for most passing TDs in a season with 27 topping Kirk Cousins’ 2011 campaign by 2 TDs. During the season, I felt that Thorne was a solid young QB, who improved greatly during the season. I thought he ended the year with around 2700-2800 yards and maybe 21 TDs. I was shocked that he hit the marks that he did, and I don’t mean that as a slight to Thorne at all. He just balled out last year, and can only get better from here on out. For the record, I’m not implying that Thorne is a better QB than Cousins or Cook right now. If he improves as expected, he may quickly enter that best MSU QB conversation, while accomplishing some unprecedented things to close out his MSU career.


Outlook:

With respect to 2022, I expect a big year for Payton Thorne. K9 is gone now so this really should be Thorne’s team on Offense. He’s the leader, and the staff has surrounded him with some excellent weapons. If other units hold up, I could see another 2900+ yard campaign for him with 22-28 TDs. When in doubt, I expect that Jay Johnson will lean on the pass game in crunch time. Areas where I would like to see him improve this year: 1) Increased targets to RB/TEs, 2) Limit TO’s especially fumbles, 3) Continue to work through progressions so that we utilize our dynamic WR unit.


One big concern that I have for this position group is do we have a defined QB2. If we needed a QB2 right now, my gut tells me that it would have to be Noah Kim. His arm has improved a lot from HS to now. I’d like to see him get some live reps early in the year to get his feet wet. I view him as a Stetson Bennett, Cade McNamara or for that matter any Wisconsin QB not named Graham Mertz 😊, who can manage a game and make the right decisions at crunch time.


If Thorne went down for an extended amount of time, I don’t know which way we would go. If Kim had the best command of the offense, I think they would ride him all year. Fay and Houser have a ton of arm talent, but we have no idea about their current knowledge of the offense. In addition, they are both freshmen (RS FR, FR, respectively). As a note to Spartan Nation, pray that we don’t have to press a FR into the QB1 role in the Big Ten. This can work well in NCAA 2014, but real life isn’t a videogame. It’s pretty rare for a freshmen to be capable of running the show from jump or in relief of the starter (Matt Barkley, Sam Bradford, Caleb Williams, DJ Uiagalelei in 2020). My hope for the backups is that all 3 get game action in at least 3 games this year while we preserve the RS for Houser. My gut tells me that the next QB1 will either be Houser or 2024 QB Jake Merklinger if we are able to reel him in from the Peach State.


RB

Returners: Elijah Collins, Jordan Simmons, Harold Joiner Jr, Davion Primm

Transfers: Jalen Berger (Wisconsin), Jarek Broussard (Colorado)


Synopsis:

I don’t think much else can be said about last year except that we were able to watch greatness for 12 games last year in the form of Kenneth “K9” Walker III. I was lucky enough to see K9 at both NW and Rutgers. Since I started following MSU football as a freshmen in 2002, I can say that K9 is the only player that I’ve seen even close to as dynamic as Charles Rogers. Both guys were special in green and white, and I don’t think that I’ll see better at either position in my lifetime. Needless to say, it will be a tall task to replace or even mimic the production of K9 considering that he accounted for a whopping 72% of MSU’s 2021 rushing yards.


Outlook:

Elijah Collins (18 carries, 102 yds), Jordan Simmons (70 carries, 278 yds) and Harold Joiner (13 carries, 43 yds) are the notable returning players. However, I don’t expect any of the 3 to be the lead backs. I can see Joiner’s role expanding in the pass game with Heyward off to the NFL. Davion Primm is also entering the fray fresh off of a RS. He made a lot of noise during Spring, and will likely contend for carries. I didn’t expect much from him as a 2020 recruit, but he looks to have really changed his body this offseason (). I’ll be watching his reps closely against WMU and Akron.


UofM folks like to harp on Tucker for MSU being transfer U (PS-I could care less what they think), but transfers will again be the name of the game at RB for MSU. Jalen Berger transferred in during Winter from Wisconsin as a former 4 star recruit. Berger had a solid FR campaign at Wisconsin with 301 yards on 60 carries. He played in 3 games last year before deciding to transfer out of Wisconsin. Overall, I like Berger as North-South runner with good vision. He runs very upright, but almost always falls forward. For context, here are some highlights for his 2020 season at Wisconsin- ).


As many have suggested, Berger will likely be in the top 2 backs. Berger will likely be sharing carries with Jarek Broussard. In 2 years at Colorado, Broussard racked up 1,556 yards on 298 carries, while winning 2020 PAC 12 Offensive Player of the Year. Of all the backs listed, I expect Broussard to be the lead back. He’s been pegged by many services as a top transfer in the Big Ten this cycle- (https://portal.n.rivals.com/news/ranking-the-big-ten-s-top-transfer-portal-additions-for-2022 ). Broussard is a very different runner than Berger. He is a short stocky guy that finds holes out of nowhere (). Coach Kap has even gone so far as to call him “mouse-like” in his running style. He has more explosiveness than the other backs as well. A great example of this can be seen in a recent video from MSU LB-RB drills (see last play)- (). The thing that concerns me with him is durability considering that he has had ACL injuries in 2018 and 2019, respectively (https://www.buffzone.com/2021/03/31...ssard-feeling-good-after-shedding-knee-brace/).


IMO, the success of the run game boils down to: 1) OL coming together as a cohesive unit, 2) OL staying healthy, 3) Utilizing depth to keep guys fresh since I don’t think it would be wise to ride Broussard like we did K9. Taken together, I expect the run game to take a step back since K9 was an all-timer. I could see 1650-1900 yds gained across the RB room with additional rushing yards coming from Thorne and the WRs. A subplot to watch will be how Effrem Reed handles the RB rotation in his first year in relief of William Peagler, who is now at Florida.

Potential production breakdown: Broussard (800 yards), Berger (700 yards), Primm (150 yards), Joiner (100 yards), Collins (100 yards)



WR

Returners: Jayden Reed, Tre Mosley, Keon Coleman, Montorie Foster, Terry Lockett, Christian Fitzpatrick

Newcomers: Germie Bernard, Tyrell Henry, Antonio Gates Jr., Jaron Glover



Synopsis:

2021 was a special year for this WR. Jayden Reed balled out as Thorne’s go-to- WR accounting for 59 catches, 1,026 yards and 10 TDs. In addition, he had 13 plays of 30+ yards in 2021. Jalen Nailor also had a solid year game accounting for 37 catches, 695 yards, and 6 TDs despite a hand injury endured during the Michigan. Nailor put enough on tape to be drafted in the 6th round by the Minnesota Vikings. An unexpected development last year was the rise of Tre Mosley as a reliable WR3 (35 catches, 530 yards, 3 TDs). His hands were glue all year, and had a knack for showing out at crunch time. A number 3 WR was a big need considering that Ricky White was not with the team all year before his eventual transfer to UNLV.


Outlook:

This is a very deep group. As long as the OL holds up to give Thorne time, I expect this group to take it up a notch. As a group, they will look bigger, faster and more physical. They have a chance to be the best WR core since the Rose Bowl year (WR1-WR5). From early camp reports, I think that we have a clear top 3 at WR in Reed, Mosley, and Coleman. As a general rule of thumb, football programs do not highlight players unless they expect big things from them.


Case in point-

Given Coleman’s measurables, I would love for him to run as WR 2 on the outside with Mosley sticking to the slot. I love the versatility of that group given that they go 6’0, 6’4 and 6’2. The unknowns here are who are WRs 4 and 5. You have to think that the battle for those spots is between Foster, Lockett, Fitzpatrick, and Bernard. I do not expect Henry, Gates, or Glover to play this year unless they either are needed for depth due to injury or find a niche in the return game. I loved what I saw from Foster last year when Nailor went out. I expect him to be WR 4. The other 3 players are largely unknown talents. Bernard is a 4 star newcomer with a ton of ability. Lockett is a former 4 star that has struggled to find PT during his time in EL, while Fitzpatrick is a talented local product that transferred to MSU from Louisville last season. I don’t think that we’ll know who WR 5 is until after the Akron game to be honest.


TE

Returning players: Tyler Hunt, Maliq Carr

Newcomers: Jack Nickel, Michael Masunas

Transfer: Daniel Barker


Synopsis:

When Coach Tucker took over at MSU, TE was a group in desperate need of a talent influx. It would have been a huge plus if Matt Seybert was still eligible in 2020, but it is what it is. Moving into 2021, MSU expected to have a healthy Matt Dotson available going into Spring football. Unfortunately, he went down with an undisclosed injury that ended his comeback attempt. This left MSU with Trenton Gillison, Evan Morris, Adam Berghorst, Parks Gissinger and Tyler Hunt as returning TE prospects. The staff turned to the portal to bring in a former 4-star prospect, Maliq Carr. In an unprecedented move, the staff moved Connor Heyward from H-back to TE to round this group out. I still don’t know how he did it, but Coach Gilmore milked every last inch of production out of this makeshift unit that he could. Considering Heyward was in portal no man’s land in 2019, it is incredible that he became the alpha dawg in the TE room and developed himself into a pro. He accounted for 35 catches and 326 yards through the air. The areas where he will be sorely missed are: clutch 3rd down receptions and impact down-field blocking.


Outlook:

The harsh reality is that Connor Heyward has moved onto the NFL. MSU only returns 20 catches, 271 yards and 1 TD of TE production in 2022. However, all is not lost. MSU went to the portal and brought in the likely starter at TE- Daniel Barker by way of the University of Illinois. I’ll admit that I was not high on adding a TE this portal cycle, but I was sold once I saw his highlights:


Barker is a big, bodied TE that is very fluid as a pass catcher. For his career, he has accounted for 64 catches, 827 yards, and 11 TDs of production. The one part of his game that is an unknown is blocking. The staff stresses the “No Block, No Rock” mentality so across this group blocking will need to be up to program standards to receive PT. As I mentioned in June, this move takes pressure off of Carr to be the guy this year. Hell, the playing group of Barker, Carr, and Tyler Hunt may allow MSU to RS both Nickel and Masunas (something that I did not think possible 6 months ago). I expect the TEs to have a big year. The last time that I was this excited to see our TEs was in 2011 when MSU had a loaded TE room of Andrew Gleichert, Brian Linthicum, Garrett Celek, and Dion Sims. The difference here is that athletically I expect this to a special group. Barker and Carr will both play a lot this year, and be valuable weapons in the pass game. I also think that Hunt will have some nice moments at a 6th year Senior. I just hope that their blocking at the point of attack in enough to help the run/pass game.


OL

Returning players:


OT: Jarrett Horst, Spencer Brown, Ethan Boyd, Brandon Baldwin

OG: JD Duplain, Geno VanDermark, Kevin Wigenton. Matt Carrick, Evan Brunning

C: Nick Samac, Dallas Fincher

Newcomers: Gavin Broscious, Kris “Big Dooley” Phillips, Ashton Lepo, Braden Miller

Transfer: Brian Greene (WSU)


Synopsis:

2021 was a great year for the OL. Outside of Horst and Carrick, the unit largely stayed healthy for the year. As a result, the unit gelled, and we saw Jay Johnson’s O come to life. With this said, MSU lost some key contributors off of that OL- Luke Campbell, Matt Allen, Kevin Jarvis, AJ Arcuri, Blake Bueter.



Outlook:

2022 is a year of transition on the OL. I’ll be honest OL depth is the aspect of this team that makes me most anxious about this team. I have no idea how this will go. We have capable bodies at OT, OG, and C. However, we are short on experience especially at OT.



The interior OL has potential to be a Plus unit with Duplain, Carrick, VanDerMark, Wigenton, and Greene at OG. Center also has great potential with Samac, Greene, VanDerMark, and Fincher all capable of playing the position. As we know all too well, OT has been an adventure for a long-time at MSU. Jarrett Horst returns at LT. He played well leading into the Michigan game, but he left the team shortly thereafter to tend to a health issue. At RT, Spencer Brown returns after only seeing extended action in the Peach Bowl. From recent accounts by Coach Kap, Brown is a changed man in how he approaches the game, fitness, diet, work ethic etc. If healthy, I think Horst and Brown will perform comparable to how Arcuri and Horst did in the first 8 games of 2021.



Let’s be honest offensive lines almost never stay healthy for an entire season. This is where things get dicey. If Horst or Brown go down, we have no proven backups to come on in relief. Brandon Baldwin and Ethan Boyd are both RS FR that would be logical backups. Unfortunately, they haven’t received live college football reps yet. Our first 2 games will be very important for them. Beyond those two, you are looking at having to rep at true freshmen like Ashton Lepo or Braden Miller (aka the nightmare scenario). My gut would tell me that if one of the starting OTs goes down, the pecking order for next man up would be 1) Duplain shifting out to OT, 2) Brandon Baldwin, and 3) Ethan Boyd. The absolute last resort would be starting a true freshmen. I’ll admit that if an OT goes down for an extended amount of time, this would likely cost MSU at least 1-2 games in the win column this season.



Overall, my expectation for the group is that it could be an up and down year for the OL depending on health. I think that the unit will ebb and flow until they establish the best 7 that Coach Kap will ride deep into Big Ten Season. I expect this to happen by Week 6 when OSU comes to town.



And this concludes the Offensive breakdown. Later this week, keep an eye out for the Defensive Breakdown. Go Green!!!
 
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