I have posted this plot a few times this winter, but now that the regular season is over, the data is finally all in and we can start to draw a real conclusion. I downloaded all of the KenPom pretournament data back to 2002 and looked at the statistical profile of all 16 past champs. They ALL had the following things in common:
An adjusted offensive efficiency of at least 111.35 points per 100 possessions
An adjusted defensive efficiency of no greater than 94.95 points per 100 possessions.
Of all 68 teams in the field, only 8 teams this year meet this criteria. They are:
Virginia
Tennessee
Cincinnati
Michigan
Texas Tech
Clemson
MSU
Duke
Graphically, this relationship is shown here:
Where the green area is the championship area.
Another notable observation is that 13 of the 16 champions also finished in the Top 6 of Kenpom's final overall rankings. If we consider the teams in the current Top 6 that fall into the green region, this gives you the 4 teams most likely to win the Title this year:
Virginia
Cincinnati
MSU
Duke
I hope this is helpful as you fill out your bracket!
An adjusted offensive efficiency of at least 111.35 points per 100 possessions
An adjusted defensive efficiency of no greater than 94.95 points per 100 possessions.
Of all 68 teams in the field, only 8 teams this year meet this criteria. They are:
Virginia
Tennessee
Cincinnati
Michigan
Texas Tech
Clemson
MSU
Duke
Graphically, this relationship is shown here:
Where the green area is the championship area.
Another notable observation is that 13 of the 16 champions also finished in the Top 6 of Kenpom's final overall rankings. If we consider the teams in the current Top 6 that fall into the green region, this gives you the 4 teams most likely to win the Title this year:
Virginia
Cincinnati
MSU
Duke
I hope this is helpful as you fill out your bracket!
