Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State vs. Minnesota
By Jim Comparoni
Publisher, SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - Michigan State is desperate to get the smell out of their brains of last week’s disaster at Washington, and Minnesota is desperate to show it belongs in the top echelon of the Big Ten.
Beating the Spartans would make the Gophers feel deserving of that residency.
Beating the Gophers would make Michigan State feel good about their football world again, for a few days.
Which team has the greater motivation? That’s debatable. They’ll both be dialed up near 9 or higher on Saturday, with Minnesota trying to prove they have arrived and Michigan State trying to prove they’re still there.
Michigan State needs this win more; that is usually a scale-tipper when handicapping two similarly solid teams. But these teams aren’t comparable in a lot of ways. Michigan State is more talented, but has more significant injuries and isn’t tied together as well as Minnesota right now. Michigan State has been working all week to tighten those screws and reclaim those lost inches which Mel Tucker says cost the Spartans on many occasions at Washington? Is that a one-week fix? I have my doubts, but we’ll learn for sure on Saturday.
Minnesota really wants to take the next step as a program. When they get a bullseye like this in front of them, they have been pretty good, at times, under PJ Fleck. They showed up legendarily well in an ESPN Gameday victory over Penn State while unbeaten in 2019, but couldn’t hold serve and beat Iowa and Wisconsin.
Last year, Minnesota staged the second biggest win of the Fleck era when they beat Wisconsin won the Paul Bunyan Axe for the first time since 2003. That was a solid, carnivorous victory, taking place around the time you were brushing snow off your coats at Spartan Stadium while Michigan State beat Penn State.
Minnesota has recruited solidly under Fleck, but not spectacularly. They have managed to stay in the national Top 45, which I think is the Mendoza line. If you are in the Top 45, and you’ve proven to be good at evaluation and player development, then you have a chance to be a Top 25 program.
Minnesota recruiting in the past five seasons, not counting the current true freshmen:
2018: No. 43
2019: No. 41
2020: No. 38
2021: No. 39
Solid, but unspectacular. Somewhat similar to most Dantonio years.
But I have to say that evaluation, player development and scheme adhesion has been impressive. Minnesota has its crap together, and I don’t see any mediocre athletes or weaklings out there.
THE BOOK ON MINNESOTA
Fleck is 38-23 at Minnesota, a strong mark for a program that has long held some potential to win, but many riddles and obstacles that come along with the job. He’s done a good job of solving them to this point, and this might be his best team, even better than the one in 2019 which began 9-0 and finished 11-2 with an Outback Bowl victory over Auburn and a No. 10 rnaking. However, they don’t have the downfield receiver targets that that team had, especially with top receiver Chris Autman-Bell being lost last week to a torn ACL.
After a mulligan COVID year in 2020 during which Minnesota went 3-4, the Gophers were back over-achieving last year with a 9-4 record, with victories over Wisconsin and Purdue and a win against West Virginia in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix.
Fleck garnered a ton of publicity for the 9-0 start in 2019, but the Gophers have quietly been achieving under the radar since then. Perhaps this is the season they get back over the radar, toward a 10-win season. Beating Michigan State would mark one of the most significant wins of Fleck’s career, considering the boost it could generate toward a special season.
If Minnesota wins this game, a 10-2 season will be achievable. They play at Penn State. They face Purdue and Iowa at home. They travel to Wisconsin for the last game of the regular season. Minnesota can win three of those four, without being all that great. Just solidly good.
Minnesota is good. Not as great as all that I just wrote. But they have their crap together. And they have quite a few well-placed veterans, and a difference-maker of a RB behind a reloaded offensive line, and a curiously effective no-name defense. And they have a schedule that is conducive to an inflated accumulation of wins.
Perhaps the chief descriptor in the preceding paragraph is the point that they have their crap together. Michigan State, on the other hand, does not have its crap together. The pass offense looked good last week, with Payton Thorne back on the mark. But run blocking was disappointingly lacking at Washington. And pass defense was a mess, again. Linebacker play was solid-to-functional with Cal Haladay, not solid with Ben VanSumeren, and Washington put a silencer on pass rush threat Jacoby Windmon.
Michigan State has to make a stand this week. If Michigan State loses, the downward slope could tilt toward a 6-6 type of season, or worse.
Both teams need this win badly, for different reasons. And they will meet, helmet-to-helmet, for 60 minutes of grass-stain football amid 60-degree temperatures, just in time for apple season. I’m not sure what apples have to do with it, but you might want to have a stash of hard cider available after this one. And if Michigan State happens to win, it would be worth celebrating.
It will be intriguing theater for those of us on the sidelines, and a violent intersection for those between the lines, trying to prove their divergent points.
It’s going to be physical. Minnesota is big and rugged on offense, with an excellent, 320-pound center. Michigan State hit hard in week one and harder in week two, but not so hard last week. Mel Tucker is preaching, preaching, preaching physicality this week. He knows he needs it. Can his guys provide it?
Fleck knows Michigan State will be in prove-their-manhood mode, so he is preaching for his charges to match and exceed MSU’s physicality.
This is going to have Bronko Nagurski meets Bubba Smith type of intensity. Maybe not all the talent that those two packed, but all of the heart. For a non-rivalry game, this is going to be a slobber-knocker. Players on both sides want to perform for their coach. There are going to be collisions.
Tucker is preaching and toughness. Coaches usually get what they emphasize. But he KNOWS it’s of paramount importance this week because if Michigan State comes with anything less than Grade A physicality and toughness, then they’re going to get flattened. He is preaching it out of respect to Minnesota, and maybe even a little bit of concern.
It’s interesting that PJ Fleck was a wide receiver, and at one point was regarded as a high-flying, envelope-pushing type of offensive guru. They threw the ball all over the place at Western Michigan, yet nicely balanced with the run.
But at Minnesota, he has adapted something that is maybe a mixture of Glen Mason’s zone run schemes and Barry Alvarez’s ground-and-pound Wisconsin. The Gophers aren’t as big and burly as Wisconsin, but there is a north woods method to the Minnesota madness. He hasn’t tried to institute the fun and gun. He’s going with the locally grown fruits, vegetables, walleye and corn-fed livestock from the area pastures, lakes, orchards and mines and built from it. Too many metaphors? Maybe not. These guys eat a lot, and they have the frames to fill.
Barry Alvarez did it that way because he felt that he could get national-class linemen in the western Great Lakes and Plains, but not necessarily any other position group. So he started with that.
Fleck is taking a page from that playbook. Glen Mason tried to, too. And Mason had some good teams, but he was never able to recruit and build a good defense. Fleck has a good defense. On defense, in my estimation, he has taken pages from the Iowa and Hankwitz-Northwestern manual.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
I don’t mean to make Minnesota sound like Georgia. Minnesota isn’t great. But they might be good enough to win almost every Saturday this year. I went through every player and most of their back-ups, and I don’t see many weaknesses, athletically, structurally or mentally. You’ll read a lot of positive checkmarks in this article, maybe not a lot of Hall of Fame endorsements, but just positive checks after positive checks. It kind of reminds me of the Dantonio/Hoyer era. QB Tanner Morgan doesn’t have nearly the arm of Hoyer. I’m just talking about a solid team that plays square on defense, establishes the run and doesn’t beat itself.
So if you hear positive after positive, don’t picture Georgia. Picture 2008 Michigan State.
This is a tough game to game to handicap because Minnesota has cruised past easy opponents while Michigan State is coming off a bad performance in a foreign environment against an annoyingly good, underrated Washington team.
The Minnesota that we’ve seen thus far is just plain better than the most recent body of work we saw from Michigan State. But Michigan State looked pretty good against weak competition (Akron) too.
Will Minnesota look as physical, tied-together and smooth when they move up in weight class and speed class to play a wounded and angry Michigan State team? You’ll know when I know. Maybe not. Maybe I’m overrating Minnesota because they have had such weak opponents. But realize that they finished the season last year playing well tied-together, physical, smart football in beating Wisconsin and going 9-4, without their stud running back. They graduated good offensive linemen and defensive linemen, but have restocked nicely in both areas.
But I thought MSU’s offensive line was in good shape after two games, too, but they were stuffed by a deceptively strong Washington defensive front. Can MSU’s defensive front do the same to Minnesota’s run blockers? I would feel better if Michigan State had Jacob Slade.
Cut to the chase: If Michigan State had Slade, Jayden Reed, Darius Snow and Xavier Henderson, the Spartans would be a much better team, might have won last week, and I’d be picking them this week.
I don’t know if Slade and Reed will be available. I’m not expecting Henderson to be back.
Right now, I lean toward Minnesota winning this game because, most importantly at this stage, they appear to have their crap together, and they finished last season with their crap together, and their difference-making RB is back, along with a bunch of fifth- and sixth-year seniors, and a sixth-year QB. That team seems to have a lot of glue.
I don’t see anything in Minnesota that looks weak. When I look at Michigan State, I see weakness at safety and middle linebacker, plus questionable physicality at one of the defensive end positions (Windmon, when he’s at the point of attack against the run; and he’s going to see plenty of that in his lap this weekend).
If Jacob Slade and Jayden Reed are on the field and at above 85 percent, that MIGHT be enough - along with the home crowd and energy.
But I’m going with the mode of operation and body of work to this point. And, forget the Washington game, Minnesota has just plain been more impressive against weak opponents (Colorado, New Mexico State and Western Illinois) than Michigan State was against Akron and Western Michigan. Add MSU’s bobbles and problems against Washington, and Minnesota’s statistical impressiveness, and the only way you pick Michigan State is if you believe they’re about ready to play better than we’ve seen them play, and Minnesota is about ready to choke in its first confrontation with a talented peer.
APPLES TO APPLES
Analyzing Minnesota’s players in comparison to a known commodity (your team).
* QB: I’ll give Michigan State the edge at QB. It’s a slight edge. I just think Thorne presents more of a downfield threat than Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan. Morgan is good at operating the RPO and throwing slant passes, but I just think Thorne is a little more talented. And Michigan State might need a great performance from Thorne to keep up in this game, because I’m not sure MSU’s running game will produce all that much and I’m not sure Michigan State can keep Minnesota from controlling the ball, the clock and scoring with efficiency.
* Minnesota has a big edge at RB. I think there’s a chance we see more Elijah Collins this week.
* WR: Edge to Michigan State. And it needs to be a pronounced one. Put Reed in the mix, and MSU’s chances of hanging increase substantially.
**
HARD STOP: Wait a minute. You might be thinking, “Michigan State HANGING with Minnesota? These are the Gophers. Not the Buckeyes.” True. I hear you. But that’s the way I see it. If Michigan State hasn’t tightened those screws on defense, and has trouble running the ball, then yes it will be a challenge to hang with this Minnesota team. They’re not great. But is Michigan State?
**
* TIGHT END: The talent edge goes to Michigan State, especially if Maliq Carr is available. He traveled last week but did not get on the field. They need him. They need all of them. Daniel Barker was a plus last week. Minnesota’s tight ends are solid to functional and are probably better blockers than MSU’s.
* OFFENSIVE LINE: Edge to Minnesota. Michigan State is okay at center, Minnesota is very good at center. The RG/RT tandem for Minnesota is better than Carrick/Brown.
My guy Moobie Armstrong made a good point last night on SpartanMag LIVE! when he said crowd noise could have been a factor in Carrick and JD Duplain each getting bashed back on key plays by the Washington defensive tackle. If the o-lineman is a beat late off the ball due to not hearing the cadence, whereas the d-lineman has a better view of seeing the ball snapped, that edge can be a big one when making first contact and winning a two-gap collision. Carrick and Duplain have been firm and proven over the years. Last week might have been an anamoly for them on a few of those plays. But down-in and down-out, Michigan State had trouble getting the inside zone going.
* DEFENSIVE TACKLES: A slight edge to Michigan State, but it’s close with Jacob Slade questionable. DT was a position of strength coming into the year with Slade and Simeon Barrow, backed up by Derrick Harmon and Maverick Hansen. And it’s still a strength. But they are going to have their hands full against this offensive line and running attack. Minnesota’s defensive tackles are pretty good. Not as good as Barrow and Slade at their best.
* DEFENSIVE ENDS. Maybe a slight edge to Michigan State. Windmon will be the best pass rusher on the field. But Washington showed he can be contained. The washed out his dip and rip move by focusing hand placement on his near shoulder and sending him behind the QB. Washington was very good at having a tight end double-team him, or a pulling trap-pass interior offensive lineman fanning out and ready to help. The Washington o-linemen in the area were always very aware of No. 4. They were well tied-together.
MSU’s Khris Bogle is solid against the run but No. 97 for Minnesota is better at it. The other Minnesota DE, Tommy Rush, is better against the run than Windmon. Depth-wise, Michigan State hasn’t gotten much from back-up defensive end Brandon Wright. Zion Young shows flashes. Minnesota’s back-up defensive ends haven’t been on the field much, other than in blowout situations. I don’t have much of an opinion on them.
MLB: Big edge to Minnesota. Their guy, No. 55, is good, kind of like a slightly watered down Max Bullough. He’s good. Runs pretty well sideline to sideline, hits well, plays smart. MSU’s Ben VanSumeren struggled last week, struggled to leverage the ball to help, struggled to read plays, struggled to defeat blocks. He gave effort, but was a downstream catcher. The IQ, knack and physicality really needs to improve, and fast.
WLB: MSU’s Haladay and No. 14 for Minnesota, I would call it a draw 14 is a little faster.
* NICKEL BACK: Chester Kimbrough might be better in pure pass defense, believe it or not, than the Minnesota guy but Minnesota shrouds their guy in zone defenses and he works well within it. Kimbrough is better than you think against the run, setting the edge and so forth. But give the edge to the Gopher nickel back, No. 11, partly due to how comfortable he is in the Minnesota system where Michigan State seems to hang Kimbrough out to dry too much (like the rub routes that got to him last week). Also, No. 11 for Minnesota has linebacker size at 6-2, 210. He’s kind of a nickel plus.
* CORNERBACKS: Ameer Speed has great size and straight-line speed, but his agility is not great. Chuck Brantley has been good, and you didn’t see him get victimized last week. I haven’t seen Minnesota’s corners get tested by anything this year, so that’s a difficult read for me.
*SAFETIES: Big edge to Minnesota. Kendell Brooks is good, and can be a difference-maker with his ability to cause fumbles. But Angelo Grose is still making too many costly mistakes. It’s hard to trust him back there. Every opponent is going to have plans sewn in to try to fool him every week. Grose seemed to be bothered by a hamstring or something last week. I wouldn’t be shocked to see true freshman Jaden Mangham get a shot at some point soon, but playing a true freshman at a cerebral position like safety is like whistling through a graveyard, as Bill Miller used to say.
Meanwhile, I’m impressed with No. 27 and 23 at safety for Minnesota. They are like a pair of Xavier Hendersons. I knew nothing about them prior to watching these blowout games this week. But they look smooth, solid and smart. And they’re very experienced.
APPLES TO ORANGES
How they match up:
* The most critical problem for Michigan State remains pass defense. Minnesota is not an overly-threatening passing attack, especially with Autman-Bell out. Michigan State won’t be terribly stressed in that area, but Minnesota will look to test MSU’s weaknesses at least a couple of times.
Minnesota will throw RPO slants on the first drive, to get the pass game established. But Minnesota won’t want to morph out of what it does best, and what it wants to do (pound the run).
* Minnesota’s OL vs MSU’s defensive front will be great football. But the MLB situation at Michigan State is not great. You need your MLB to fit the run tough and sure, pick through the wash and win collisions.
The right side of Minnesota’s OL is good. The center is very good. Michigan State is very good inside. But Minnesota’s RB is excellent. He will find daylight. You need an expert set of linebackers to play at an All-Big Ten clip to consistently stuff this Minnesota running attack. Michigan State doesn’t have that.
* Michigan State OL/run game vs Minnesota defensive front. Two weeks ago, I thought Michigan State was ahead of schedule in this department. After last week, my confidence in this group has waned. They have a lot to prove, while the running backs seem to be pulling up a little lame.
Minnesota’s defensive line is solid, but unspectacular. The run support from the linebackers and safeties is good to excellent.
* Michigan State pass defense vs Minnesota passing game: Tanner Morgan is a little skittish in the pocket, so they don’t ask him to stand back there and make many reads. He’s a game manager.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan State plays more zone in this game, keeping more eyeballs on run support while playing bend-but-don’t-break vs the pass. Last week, Michigan State bent AND broke. Minnesota won’t stress those areas through the air like Washington did.
Angelo Grose can’t be trusted in pass defense, but I think he remains the starter because he is good against the run, and Michigan State needs that this weekend.
* MSU’s pass offense vs Minnesota pass defense. In theory, this is where Michigan State needs to make up for any slack the Spartans allow via the excellent Gopher run game and the Spartans’ shaky pass defense. However, Minnesota’s pass defense is square and secure. They keep things in front of them, see things well, rally to the ball on time, tackle well. I don’t see guys in their secondary making mistakes or losing sprints athletically. They play a lot of zone and do it pretty well. And at the end of the day, with their ball control offense, they end up limiting teams on the scoreboard.
THE MUST LIST FOR MSU
* Contain the run, of course. What does that mean in this game? Keeping Minnesota under 130 yards would be a win. I’m expecting Minnesota to exceed 175.
* Minnesota doesn’t have a lot of juice in the downfield passing attack. Michigan State must use that to its advantage. Michigan State doesn’t have to worry (theoretically) about getting beat over the top with deep shots, or the 20-yard out to the wide side of the field. Michigan State should be able to borrow resources from the pass defense, believe it not, and zero them in on the run defense. My guess is that means more three-deep zone (which gives you eight in the box, and more eyes on the backfield).
Minnesota will have answers for three-deep zone, so let Morgan attempt those passes. And if you’re Michigan State, give them a long field with the punt game when you can, put 8 in the box, hope to stop the run, and challenge Tanner Morgan to complete passes in those open windows. He’s not bad at it. He’s not great. He CAN get hot from time to time. Anyone who has played as long as he has, has had moments of hot passing. He had something like 16 straight completions against Nebraska last year. So make him prove he can do that again. That’s the preferred poison this week.
* Be explosive on offense. I expect Minnesota to “win” the majority of the downs in this game, on both sides of the ball. Michigan State will likely need to get equalizers with big-play explosiveness. That’s going to be hard to do without a Kenneth Walker III type of guy, and it will be hard to do against this safety-net style Minnesota defense. It will be very hard to do if Jayden Reed isn’t able to play and isn’t near 100 percent.
This game could be like last year’s Nebraska game, with the opponent winning the majority of the downs, but the home team needing to steal some big plays, perhaps on special teams.
* A huge game from Payton Thorne. He was excellent for most of the game last week, operating with an instant 16-0 deficit, without a running attack, in a deafening environment, against a charged-up defense, and without his favorite receiver. He locked in and delivered Michigan State to the fourth quarter, still with a chance to make it a game. The INT to the left sideline might not have been his fault, in a scramble rules situation and a freshman not coming back to the ball.
Unless I’m pleasantly surprised by MSU’s run defense and running game, I think he will be saddled with needing to be Superman in this game, too. Barker and Coleman are assets, as is Tre Mosley. Jayden Reed will be a pivotal element, if he’s available.
* Dominate special teams. I haen’t seen Minnesota punt much, or return kickoffs, or kick field goals. I’m not sure what they have in that area, but I think Michigan State is going to have enough challenges in other areas of the game that the Spartans must find a way to create a big edge here. I don’t know how that can or should happen, I just know they need it. Last week’s kickoff return game, without Jayden Reed, was weak. The punter, Barringer, remains a strength. But you don’t want to be punting a lot against this team. They don’t give you the ball back.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE AT A GLANCE
Minnesota’s ground-based offense is very good, with equal parts physicality and athletic finesse. If you aren’t in your gaps, hammering blockers, winning collisions and tackling with sound fundamentals, Ibrahim and his batman, Trey Potts, will roll up yards, move the chains and crank their way into the end zone on you, time after time.
They have their crap together. Their o-line has good size, they work well together, good physicality. They’re good. Not great. But RB Ibrahim is very good. The combination of the two, plus Minnesota’s program-wide intentions of establishing a physical, efficient, organized brand of ground-based football makes the operation difficult to stop.
They were 13 of 15 on third down last week against Colorado.
MINNESOTA DEFENSE AT A GLANCE
* Iowa and Wisconsin have been similar in style over the years, but not identical. Well, now Minnesota is like a third cousin in that batch. Similar to Iowa and Wisconsin, to the point that they can grind it out toward a 65–35 run/pass ratio on offense.
And on defense, Minnesota makes you throw underneath, they tackle, they play smart, they don’t get fooled, they don’t take chances, they don’t get out of position. They don’t play exactly like Iowa, but some of the philosophy is the same. And there’s a little bit of keep-it-in-front-of-you Mike Hankwitz (the retired Northwestern defensive coordinator) to the drill as well.
* Last year, in the final game of the regular season, Minnesota held Wisconsin RB Braelon Allen to 47 yards on 17 carries. Allen went into the game with 100 yards rushing in seven straight outings.
Wisconsin, ranked No. 14 at the time, had been averaging 269 yards rushing per game during a seven-game win streak. Minnesota held the Badgers to 62 yards rushing.
* Minnesota quietly ranked No. 2 in the nation in total defense last year, allowing 170.3 yards per game. Part of that is playing in the weak Big Ten West. (Four of the Top 17 teams in total defense last year were in the Big Ten West, becasuse offenses were weak).
* Minnesota was No. 7 in yards allowed per play.
Minnesota was in the Top 10 in scoring defense and total defense last year and has seven returning starters from that unit. Minnesota graduated its top tackler and lockdown cornerback.
GOPHER DC JOE ROSSI
Minnesota defensive coordinator, Joe Rossi, is in his sixth year with the Gophers.
Rossi came to Minnesota after being DC at Rutgers (2014-15). In 2014, Rutgers went 8-5 under Kyle Flood and beat North Carolina in the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field. Rutgers hasn’t always been bad.
In 2015, Rutgers went 4-8 in a season marred by off-field misconduct and they fired Flood. Flood is now offensive coordinator and o-line coach at Texas. He was o-line coach at Alabama in 2019.
Fleck hired Rossi as d-line coach in 2016. He worked his way up. Give Minneota credit. They apparently found a good one.
As for Rossi’s staff, he has former Michigan State defensive backs coach Paul Haynes coaching the secondary. Haynes has been there for three years. Michigan State’s secondary did not play or communicate well under Haynes during his second stint at Michigan State, at the end of the Dantonio era. But the secondary at Minnesota looks solid and smart to me right now.
THE LATEST ON MINNESOTA
* Minnesota has won three straight games by 38 points or more fir first time since 1917.
Minnesota 38, New Mexico State 0
Minnesota 62, Western Illinois 10
Minnesota 49, Colorado 7
Colorado was terrible last week. They have lost a lot of transfers since Mel Tucker left.
Colorado has also lost to TCU (38-13) and Air Force (41-10).
New Mexico State, 0-4, is considered by some to be the worst team in the FBS. They have lost to Nevada (23-12), UTEP (20-13) and Wisconsin (66-7).
Western Illinois was 2-9 last year in FCS.
So, naturally, Minnesota’s numbers are going to be inflated. And they are.
For what it’s worth, Minnesota is No. 2 in the nation in total defense, No. 6 in yards allowed per play and No. 3 in yards allowed per pass attempt (Michigan State is No. 66).
Minnesota is averaging 5.8 yards per rush, No. 9 in the Power Five.
* Minnesota leads the nation in yardage differential, outgaining its opponents by an average of 383 yards per game.
* Minnesota is averaging 315 yards rushing per game. You read that right.
* PJ Fleck is 28-23 in six seasons at Minnesota.
“This is a really smart team,” Fleck said of his Gophers. “They know when the concentrate. They have really good focus.”
* The opposition has been terrible. Minnesota has done to them what a good team should do to terrible teams.
* Last week, the blowout score against Colorado was as bad as it looked.
Midway through the second quarter, Minnesota was out-gaining Colorado 201-18. Time of possession was 17:11 to 3:41 and total plays were 28-9.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE AT A GLANCE
There are some old school Tressel ball elements to their offense. They are about 70 percent run. They will huddle at times. They will put the QB under center at times. But they are mostly a pistol offense, with inside zone and outside zone.
With all the zone run plays that they run, they are similar to Iowa. But Iowa is getting lambasted for being terribly behind the times right now. The difference is Minnesota has better offensive players.
In pass protection, they rarely seem to get in passing situations this year, so it’s kind of hard to analyze.
They allowed a sack on an OLB blitz last week when the TE 88 didn’t recognize the rush during a split zone play action fake. 88 helped the RT when he should have fanned out to the blitzer. They didn’t have their crap together on that play.
THE PASS GAME
* They run a lot of RPO slants, off of the run game threat, including RPO double slants. QB Tanner Morgan is pretty good at making easy reads off of those looks.
* Minnesota hit two slant passes to the TE and Autman-Bell on the second and third plays of the game last week. The one to the WR Autman-Bell was an RPO.
* Their opening script against New Mexico State and Colorado included passes on two or three of their first three or four plays. They seem to like to establish the RPO pass on the opening plays of the opening drive before settling into the run.
* Minnesota didn’t have good downfield threats at wide receiver BEFORE Autman-Bell went down with the injury. Now, without him, their lack of downfield passing explosiveness, and the lack of push-the-ball-downfield quarterback, are the biggest differences between this Gopher team and a team that could seriously challenge in the Big Ten Championship Game.
MINNESOTA PERSONNEL: THE MICRO
I feel like I have a pretty good handle on 21 of Minnesota’s 22 starters. But the 22nd starter, the most important one, the QB,
QB TANNER MORGAN 6-2, 215, Union, Ky.
* Was a low three-star recruit, ranked No. 5 in Kentucky. Had offers from Cincinnati and Louisville.
* His sixth season, fourth year as the starter.
* He seemed like an excellent, rising prospect as a sophomore. But his sizzle diminished after offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca left for Penn State in 2020.
Ciarrocca was fired at Penn State after one year. Ciarrocca spent 2021 as an analyst at West Virginia, and returned to Minnesota this season. The Gophers fired Mike Sanford after two years as OC and QB coach in order to make room for Ciarrocca.
Morgan now seems to be operating better with Ciarrocca back in the fold.
Morgan’s numbers:
* 62 percent career completion percentage.
* Has 30 career wins.
* He completed 66 percent of his passes in 2019 and was Second-Team All-Big Ten that year.
* He is 30-12 as a starter, with 30 wins the most in school history by a QB.
* Has 8,690 passing yards, second most in school history.
* Career .619 completion percentage is first in school history.
* But he is not as good as those numbers.
* Last year: Completed 59 percent of his passes, averaging 157 yards passing per game with 10 TDs and nine INTs.
His passing numbers last year (without Ciarrocca):
14-25 for 205 vs Ohio State
112 yards vs Miami of Ohio
164 yards vs Colorado
169 yards vs Bowling Green
20 of 24 for 209 against Nebraska
8 of 12 for 125 yards against Maryland
12 of 17 for 134 yards against Northwestern
183 yards against Iowa
14 of 20 for 196 yards against Indiana
11 of 16 for 199 yards against Wisconsin
8 of 13 for 109 yards in the bowl game against West Virginia
Not a lot of sparkle in those numbers for a guy who was a Davey O’Brien Semifinalist as a sophomore in 2019.
* Three TD passes last week.
* Ciarrocca says Morgan is playing with great anticipation.
* The Ciarocca offense doesn’t ask Morgan to do things outside of his lane, outside of his skill set. I can see why Morgan’s completion percentage suffered while Ciarocca was away. He’s limited.
But Minnesota’s running attack and offensive line are excellent, and the running back is special, and the defense is good, the QB just has to drive the bus. That’s all Ciarocca asks Morgan to do, and Morgan stays in his lane, drives the speed limit, uses his blinker, checks his blind spot.
* He will pat the ball and stare down receivers. That SHOULD give safeties a chance to get a step on the ball here and there if your safeties are experienced, smart and good. Michigan State isn’t strong there, although Kendell Brooks can unload.
- 3-6 early 2Q vs Colorado: telegraphed a 10-yard slot out and should have been intercepted by an undercutting DB in the flat.
+ 39-yard TD pass to Autman-Bell on a deep shot down the right sideline last week vs press.
+ Nice touch pass of 9 yards to Clay Geary in the back corner from the far hash for a TD.
* Lots of RPO slants
* They will ride the mesh point between QB and RB kind of a long time while reading RPO keys, not as long as Wake Forest, but sometimes kind of long.
+ Throws decently well when rolling to his right, whether escaping or off a designed boot. But he’s not real natural doing it.
+ On time with dig route to the slot receiver (Michael Brown-Stephens) on the second play of the game against New Mexico State, caught at 15 yards, gain of 27.
* When they do pass it, it’s a lot of ball control passing. It’s RPO, one read, slant. Or play action boot (which he doesn’t do real well), one read, throw. They don’t ask him to sit in the pocket and make three reads.
* If you can get him to third-and-long in the red zone, that’s when he will struggle to find someone and maybe force a pass.
= Didn’t look completely comfortable on third-and-six in the red zone against New Mexico State, patting the ball, stepping up in the pocket and then finding a wide open TE behind the LBs because a LB messed up like MSU’s did a couple of times last week.
(QB Cole Kramer, 6-1, 205, R-Jr., Eden Prairie, Minn.)
* Saw action in the first three games during mop-up time and completed at least one pass in each game. Was 3-of-3 last season.
* Was a low three-star recruit, ranked No. 3 in Minnesota.
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
* An example of Minnesota being well tied-together: When Minnesota saw New Mexico State outnumbered to the strong side, Minnesota checks and runs an RPO to that side, with the handoff sewn in.
The super sixth-year QB doesn’t have to worry whether the super sixth-year RB sees it the same way and hears it correctly. They KNOW that each other sees it the same way, and their communication is exact. When it’s time to get out of one play and into a better play, the experience shows, and then the RB has plus talent to amplify it.
Outside zone to the strong side, outnumbered side, went for about 20 yards.
RUNNING BACKS
RB 24 MOHAMED IBRAHIM (5-10, 210, 6-Sr., Baltimore, Md./Our Lady of Good Counsel)
* Was a 5.7 three-star recruit, ranked No. 13 in Maryland and No. 34 RB.
* He also had offers from Iowa, Kentucky, West Virginia and MAC schools.
* He will be the best player on the field, Saturday.
* Averaging 154 yards rushing per game and 6.9 per carry.
* Can skitter and scamper and then real good burst through the line or when turning the corner. Excellent balance, tenacity and toughness to break tackles and keep churning.
* The first tackler hasn’t brought him down very often in the first three games, or last year in the opener against Ohio State.
* He has four career 200-yard rushing games.
* 23 rushes 202 yards 3 TDs vs Colorado last week.
* 19 carries for 177 yards in the first half last week.
* Torn achilles in 2021 season opener against Ohio State.
* Great balance through contact for extra yards.
* Very, very good at picking his way and jostling and finding daylight on those inside and outside zone plays. While he is shifting and hunting, he is also picking up speed, gaining footage, setting up blocks and mystifying tacklers.
* It’s hard to put a good hit on him because he’s shifty and quick while eating up those yards.
* It’s hard to stop him for less than 3 yards on a run.
* Picked up a third-and-21 with an inside run against a light box for a gain of 34. 60 C got out to the MLB.
* Rushed 11 times for 100 yards in the firs tquarter against Colorado.
* In 2018, he rushed for 1,160 yards as a freshman.
* in 2020, he was Big Ten Running Back of the Year with 1,067 yards, 15 TDs.
* Last year, he had rushed 30 times for 163 yards and two TDs against Ohio State before leaving the game in the third quarter with a season-ending injury.
* Where the rubber meets the road, if MSU’s MLB plays like he did last week, it’s going to be hard to prevent this RB from moving the chains. The MLB is so important in run defense. Everyone is important. But if you’re uninstinctive and downstream and lacking pop anywhere in the front six or seven, this Gopher run offense will find you and take advantage.
The Michigan State safeties will need to support the run big-time, which can open up some windows deep for play-action, but that’s the dice Michigan State is going to have to roll.
Minnesota does a lot of RPO read and play-action, but not usually with the intent of going deep. Almost never with the intent of going deep, thus far this year.
RB 3 Trey Potts (5-11, 210, R-Jr., Williamsport, Pa.)
* Was a 5.6 three star recruit, ranked No. 13 in Pennsylvania and No. 48 at RB.
* Also had offers from Rutgers, Virginia, Syracuse.
* Potts is kind of an Elijah Collins type of guy. He cleans up in mop up duty but is a pretty good reliever when Ibrahim needs a blow. Potts gets quality playing time and reps.
* Played in only five games last year, started four, rushed for 552 yards and six TDs, averaging 110 yards rushing per game before going down with an injury.
* 17 rushes for 89 yards against NMSU.
* 10 rushes for 79 yards against Western Illinois.
* 13 rushes for 51 yards against Colorado.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The Skinny: Without Autman-Bell, this is not a strength. It wasn’t a strength before he became injured.
*Chris Autman-Bell was lost last week to a torn ACL. He had receptions in 41 straight games.
He led the team in catches last year, although only with 36.
“He’s one of the most (integral) parts to what we do and how we do it, on and off the field,” Fleck said. “One of the best people, but no matter what, we are trained to Row The Boat.”
22 WR MICHAEL BROWN-STEPHENS (5-11, 195, R-Jr., Springfield, Ohio)
* Was a low 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 54 in Ohio.
* Is Minnesota’s next leading pass catcher among WRs, behind Autman-Bell, with 8 receptions.
* Not much of an opinion on this guy.
* 17.8 yards per catch, 1 TD, long of 35 yards.
+ Dig route from the slot for 27 yards vs New Mexico State.
* 23 catches for 392 yards last year with 1 TD
5 WR DYLAN WRIGHT (6-3, 210, R-Jr., West Mesquite, Texas)
* Transfer from Texas A&M.
* Was a four-star, Top 100 recruit, ranked No. 13 in Texas.
* At Texas A&M, he played in three games and then redshirted as a freshman. Played in five games in 2020. I don’t think he caught a pass.
* 4 catches this year, 58 yards with a long of 20.
* 18 catches for 365 yards last year (20.3 per catch).
+ Really nice leaping 17-yard TD late in the 1H last week. Good pass, dropped in the bucket against off coverage, jump ball to the back shoulder. Nice turn, pirouette to get the foot down. That made it 35-0 at the half.
+ Tunnel screen for about five yards in the red zone against New Mexico State.
* If anyone has a chance to blow up with Autman-Bell out, I would think it would be this guy. But Brown-Stephens and the tight end, Spann-Ford, have been Morgan’s more favored secondary targets.
8 WR Clay Geary (5-10, 200, 6-Sr., Lakeville, Minn.)
* Former walk-on.
* 4 catches, 73 yards with a long of 26.
* 8-yard TD pass last week from left hash to right corner. Smash/seven combination.
9 Daniel Jackson (6-0, 200, Jr., Kansas City)
* 2 catches on the season.
* Had a catch for 8 yards on a tunnel screen last week.
* RPO slant caught at 10 yards and 9 yards after the catch.
TIGHT ENDS
The Skinny: No. 88 is a solid, all-around TE.
88 TE BREVIN SPANN-FORD (6-7, 270, R-Sr., St. Cloud, Minn.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star TE, ranked No. 2 in Minnesota.
* With Autman-Bell gone, he is their leading pass catcher with 8 receptions for 127 yards, with a long of 45. 1 TD.
* 23 catches for 296 yards last year with 1 TD.
* Does a decent job of turning his hips to get a seal when run blocking the back side.
* A little awkward, which is understandable with all that height.
* Had a pass bounce off his hands and shoulder pads for an INT against Colorado. The pass was thrown slightly behind him.
+ Ibrahim gain of 7 on a man iso, second quarter. 88 was a little awkward with the block, not a cruncher but he got it done
+ Decent job with 10 yard crossing route late in the 1H last week, crossed into the zone and sat down and Morgan met him with a high feed.
* If you set a shoulder into him, you can move him off the line a little bit. A good, stout d-end can buckle him as a blocker. Bogle will stalemate him. MSU’s other d-ends not quite stout enough to buckle him right now.
+ 13 yard reception on double slant route on the second play of the game last week.
TE 87 Nick Kallerup (6-5, 270, R-Jr., Wayzata, Minn.)
* Was a no-star recruit. presumably a walk-on.
* 1 catch for 16 yards on the year.
- Didn’t get a seal block on the back side of a zone away from him, allowed DE of Colorado to slant inside and get to the RB for no gain on a play late in the 1Q.
OFFENSIVE LINE
The Skinny: Very good at C, very good at RG/RT. They all work well together. Left tackle has some developing to do. The line graduated four excellent players, but the replacements are quality with the C an all-star.
LT 69 AIREONTAE ERSERY (6-6, 325, R-Soph., Kansas City)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 17 in Missouri, No. 64 OT.
* Spencer Brown type in pass protection. Sometimes I think he’s a little better than Spencer, sometimes I don’t.
* Believe it or not, a guy for New Mexico State had a decent duck and rip pass rush move. Ersery handled it well. Not as good as Windmon’s, but Ersery has seen that curveball before.
+ Real nice job with combo block out to LB on an inside zone on third and three for a gain of 9 yards on the opening drive against Colorado. Good quickness to get out to the LB at the last instant and Ibrahim trusted the clearing would be there when he got there. He accelerated to it and 69 came off onto the LB at the right moment.
* Gets a little awkward at times, over his skis. Missed a block on an inside zone late in the first half last week and Ibrahim was stopped for a loss.
- Got two-gapped and disengaged by Colorado DE who made the tackle for a gain of 3 on Potts late in the 1H when the LG and C had dominated and the run should have went for more.
LG 65 AXEL RUSCHMEYER (6-4, 305, 6th-Sr., Hutchinson, Minn.)
* No-Star recruit, presumably a walk-on.
* 12 career starts.
* Left last week’s game with an apparent injury in the first half.
* Also left the season opener against New Mexico State with an undisclosed injury and did not return.
LG 66 Nathan Boe (6-5, 300, R-Sr., Lakeville, Minn.)
* Was a low 5.5 three-star. Unranked by Rivals.com. Had offers from MAC schools.
* Replaced Ruschmeyer late in the 1Q last week
* Gets low and drives his feet well.
* Looked quick getting out to LB level and erasing the LB on an outside zone for an 18-yard TD, RB broke three tackles in barreling into the end zone to go up 21-0.
C 60 JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ (6-4, 320, 6-Sr., Flossmoor, Ill.)
* Was a low 5.5 three-star recruit, unranked by Rivals.com. Had MAC offers.
* Second-team All-Big Ten (coaches) last year.
* Honorable Mention All-Big Ten in 2020.
* He moves really well for 320. I wouldn’t have thought he weighs that much with the way he can get out and reach block, and turn his hips and feet to seal.
+ Good job getting out to MLB on a third and four gain of 9 by Ibrahim on a wide zone.
+ Quick in getting to double teams, laterally.
++ C/LG double teams were dominant against Colorado.
+ They gained 4 yards on a third-and-1 QB sneak behind him last week. He plowed.
RG 76 CHUCK FILIAGA 6-6, 330, Gr., Aledo, Texas
* Transfer from Michigan
* Was a Top 250 four-star recruit, ranked No. 23 in Texas and No. 175 in the nation.
* Started 11 games at Michigan.
* Powerful with same foot/same shoulder blow on the 5-yard TD run in the first quarter last week.
* Good job combo blocking out to the LB on the first play of Minnesota’s fourth drive vs Colorado. Simple, seamless, effective. Gain of 4.
* Good job double-teaming with RT 77 on a duo run for an easy 3-yard TD run for Ibrahim on the opening drive last week.
RT 77 QUINN CARROLL 6-6, 310, Gr., Edina, Minn
* Transfer from Notre Dame.
* Was a Top 100 four-star recruit, ranked No. 68 in the country.
* Played in 14 games at Notre Dame in three seasons but did not earn a start.
+ Good combo block out to LB on Ibrahim 10 yard run in 1Q.
- Made a false step on a wide zone and allowed a TFL, loss of 4 in the 1Q.
+ Moves well in pass defense, with good balance, gets out quickly to protect against the outside speed rush while having the bend to counter back inside.
* Mediocre strength against a tough, two-gapping d-end. Khris Bogle will be able to long-arm him and set the edge on zone plays to the right when Bogle is in there.
* RG/RT double team destroyed 275-pound DT Justin Jackson of Colorado on a third-and-3 duo run for a 5-yard TD run to give MInnesota a 7-0 lead on the opening possession.
THE 411 ON GOPHER DEFENSE
* Remember that stuff Dantonio used to say about “playing square”? These guys play square.
The linebacker spacing is good, they don’t overlap or over-pursue, they are good at using hands to shed blocks, and they do it with pretty quick feet. They pursue with good angles to leverage the ball back to the help, whether it’s the linebacker, the nickel or the safeties.
* They were one of the best in the nation last year in total defense but only had one player make third team All Big Ten (d-lineman, graduated), and two guys made HM All-Big Ten, a graduated safety and returning MLB Mariano Sori-Marin.
That’s why I call them a no-name defense. But they are good individually and I’d say they are very good collectively. They don’t have great pass rushers, but the rest of it is square and stout.
* Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi likes to send early-down blitzes, especially the first play of a drive.
* None of their d-line regular graded above 69 percent in pass rush by PFF against Colorado.
* On defense they play with excellent togetherness and group enthusiasm. They celebrate as one, and they are energetic when it comes to communication and situational awareness.
When your offense fails on third down, their defensive players all raise their fists to indicate fourth down like puppy dogs wagging their tales.
They play as one and I don’t see any athletic weaknesses out there like you used to see with Minnesota and tier-three Big Ten teams because they are not a tier three Big Ten team anymore.
* On third-down passing situations, they like to play a deep five-man shell with the other six crowding the line of scrimmage, and you don’t know which of the six are rushing. Sometimes only three are rushing. Even with a three-man rush, they still created an overload on the Colorado left tackle and back-up DE Danny Stiggow got a sack out of it last week.
* In pass defense, they play a lot of deep zones. Between the 20-yard lines, they will give you the 8 to 12 yard out and some hooks and curls to the inside, if you are patient enough to take it and accurate enough to complete passes without penalties or dropped passes.
But they don’t sit in that shell all day every day.
They will send blitzes, such as corner blitzes, and rotate cover-three zone behind it, kind of like Narduzzi used to do - some pressure but with a safety net built behind it.
* Like any good defense, they CAN mix up the coverages. On third-and-nine, they went press, cover-one, blitz to end New Mexico State’s third drive. Just to work on it. It looked functional.
DEFENSIVE LINE
The Skinny: They’ve got sturdy guys. Not as sturdy as Washington.
DE 8 THOMAS RUSH (6-3, 250, R-Sr., Marysville, Ohio)
* Second-year starter.
* Was a three-star recruit, ranked No. 52 in Ohio, played linebacker in high school at 205 pounds. Had MAC offers.
+ Decent speed to the outside, and an even better job maintaining speed and balance at the junction point
* Stand-up defensive end. Jeff Pietrowski type, but stronger.
DE 97 JALEN LOGAN-REDDING 6-4, 275, R-Soph.
* Three-star recruit ranked No. 16 in Missouri. Had offers from Missouri, Kansas, Purdue and the like.
* Michigan State could use a guy like this.
+ Plays the run extremely well.
+ Looks solid at point of attack against outside zone, getting penetration when one-gapping, setting the edge. That’s what he does best. He will clog up an outside zone to his side.
* Usually plays to the field.
+ Consistently did a good job last week of moving OTs off the line of scrimmage, setting the edge on outside runs.
1 DT TRILL CARTER (6-2, 300, R-Jr., Leesburg, Ga.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 81 in Georgia. Also had offers from Arkansas, Kentucky, Maryladn, UNC, South Carolina, Ga Tech and others, but it’s unclear how hard each of those schools went after him.
* Three technique DT.
* Not bad vs a double team on the first play of Colorado’s third drive.
* Decent quickness as DT on third down running the hoop. Kind of squatty.
+ Firm against double team on fourth-and-one in the 3Q last week.
* They will occasionally mix in some one-gapping with a LB blitz, and it’s hard to run on them when they do that.
DT 93 KYLER BAUGH (6-2, 300, Sr., Talihina, Okla.)
* Transfer from Houston Baptist.
* Not great against double-teams.
* One technique (nose guard) DT.
DE 17 Jah Joyner (6-5, 250, R-Soph., Danbury, Conn.)
* Designated pass rusher. Better than Brandon Wright, so far this year.
+ Pretty good bull rush pressure late in the 1H vs a bad Colorado right tackle.
* Decent speed rusher.
DL 96 Logan Richter (6-4, 325, R-Jr., Perham, Minn.)
* No opinion.
DE 99 Lorenza Surgers (6-5, 275, Gr., Cary, NC)
* Transfer from Vanderbilt.
* Sack against Colorado.
* A little awkward.
DE 92 Danny Striggow (6-5, 250, R-Soph., Long Lake, Minn.)
* Had a sack and a hurry in nine pass rush snaps. Came untouched from the blind side, didn’t beat anyone. The pressure came due to sliding the protection to the right, when the overload on that side ended up dropping into coverage. Good defensive scheming for what amounted to a three man rush. Minnesota showed six at the line of scrimmage on second-and-10 and dropped three of those six, and one of the three still managed to come untouched.
LINEBACKERS
The Skinny: Good and smart at the LB level
MLB 55 MARIANO SORI-MARIN (6-3, 245, Sr., Mokena, Ill.)
* Was a low 5.5 three-star recruit, unranked.
* HM All-Big Ten last year.
* Rugged guy who has grown an inch since high school
* Does a good job starting, stopping, fending off blocks and surging to the ball.
* Good sideline to sideline. Smart, physical. He’s a leader. Leads the communication. Michigan State needs a guy like this right now.
* He is kind of a Max Bullough type, but not as good. But he’s good.
* If Michigan State is winning up front against the Minnesota d-line, 55 is the type of guy who will limit the gain. And his wing men at LB and nickel back are fast and capable too, as are the safeties.
LB 14 BRAELEN OLIVER (6-0, 230, R-Sr., Douglasville, Ga.)
* Was a 5.5 low three star recruit, unranked. Had MAC offers and offers from Duke and Arkansas State and Colorado.
* Started seven games last year.
* Good quickness in breaking on the ball in zone defense. Good job reading the route (probably from film study) and making his break.
* Quick feet, quicker than Cal Haladay at the same position.
* A sign of program maturity, this guy redshirted, waited his turn and is now starting and playing quality, smart football.
NB 11 MICHAEL DIXON 6-2, 210, Jr. Statesboro, Ga.
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 90 in Georgia and No. 43 at safety.
* First-year starter
* Has grown an inch since high school.
* Runs really well, effective blitzer, smooth stride.
* Uses his hands well to shed blocks, and sees backfield flow, two things that Ben VanSumeren is struggling with between the tackles right now, and in alley pursuit.
* Colorado tried to beat Dixon with a flea flicker, releasing the man Dixon was covering with a late wheel, but Dixon covered it pretty well for an INC.
(NB 22 Ryan Stapp, 6-0, 175, Jr., College Station, Texas)
* He looks smaller than 6-0, and not all that quick.
* He comes in on passing downs. If you can isolate him on your best receiver, go to town. But it’s usually zone and he usually has help. He might be a weakness.
(LB 15 Donald Willis, 6-2, 220, R-Jr., Garfield Heights, Ohio)
* No opinion.
PASS DEFENSE
* They play off-coverage zones, but they are coiled, smart and break on the ball on time, and arrive at the reception area on time for the tackle and sometimes the pass break-up, reminding me of Iowa a little bit in that way. It’s a sticky zone. Not as good as some of the top Iowa zones, and not as good as Indiana in 2020, but extremely functional.
CORNERBACKS:
CB 4 TERRELL SMITH (6-1, 215, 5-Sr., Snellville, Ga.)
* Started seven games last year then missed the last portion of the season with an injury.
* Another five-year program guy who waited his turn and is playing veteran football.
GAME WITHIN THE GAME PART II
Smith on a corner blitz forced a fumble with a sack, sloppy play by Colorado. The cool and impressive thing about that play is that I’m pretty sure the blitz was an automatic based on Colorado’s formation (confirmed by great communication).
Colorado had two WRs to the right, and the TE to the left. The CB, No. 4, stayed on the TE side rather than going “corners over” to the two-WR side.
When the CB, Smith, stayed on the non-WR side, a lot of hand signals and communication commenced. He was blitzing. There were not WRs to his side, so it had all the looks of a blitz automatic.
With him blitzing, the d-line morphed to one-gapping. If the CB is blitzing, he has an edge gap, so the DE could cross face of the offensive tackle and press the B-gap, and so on down the line.
He blitzed, the RB didn’t block him, sack, fumble, Minnesota recovers at the 11-yard line, already up 7-0 and Colorado was in the process of getting TKOed early.
The communication, 11 defenders with one brain, and excitedly relaying the plan to one another, was … something that Michigan State isn’t very good at doing right now.
CB 5 JUSTIN WALLEY (5-11, 185, Soph. D’Iberville, Miss.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 9 in Mississippi and No. 56 at CB.
* Started six games last year as a true freshman.
- missed a tackle on a hitch in the 1Q against Colorado.
* Has a good reputation as a rising young player.
SAFETIES
The Skinny: Smart, solid, Veterans, Square.
S 27 TYLER NUBIN (6-2, 210, Sr., St. Charles, Ill.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 4 in Illinois and No. 25 at safety.
* Spring commitment. Had offers from Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Purdue, Tennessee and others.
* He’s the only four-star recruit signed by Minnesota that I found in the starting lineup.
* Honorable mention All-Big Ten last year.
* Good tackler.
* Good job closing the cover-two window on a cover-two hole pass attempt INC last week with CB 4 Terrell Smith.
S 23 JORDEN HOWDEN (6-0, 210, R-Sr., San Diego/Desert Pines, Nev., High School)
Field Safety
* Has grown two inches since high school. I don’t know if Minnesota is inflating the size of these guys, but I’m going by their heights in the Rivals.com database.
* Was a no-star recruit. I can’t find him on the Minnesota Rivals.com signing list. He must have been a walk-on, but I don’t have time to research it. But Minnesota gets this no-star guy from Nevada and he starts as a true freshman. With 32 starts he returns for his extra COVID year. This is a unique, unique roster.
* 32 career starts.
* Supports the run with good leverage to his help.
* Smart and quick in supporting with leverage on swing passes.
DB 7 Beanie Bishop
* Good open-field tackle on third down last week.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Matthew Trickett was 17 of 25 last year. Was 1 of 4 from 50 yards are longer. Transfer from Kent State.
Punter is averaging 33.3 yards per punt. He is a weakness, if you can make him punt. He has only punted three times this year in three games.
Return man: Quentin Redding (5-7, 150, R-Fr., Menominee Falls, Wis.) doesn't look special.
4.5 yards per punt return.
22.5 yards per kickoff return with a long of 23.
ADD IT ALL UP
To win this game, Michigan State is going to need to get it done with explosive plays. I think Minnesota will “win” the majority of the snaps in this game, maybe the vast majority. Michigan State will need to equalize that edge with big plays. It’s not a comfortable situation, and maybe even a low-odds situation, but that’s the way I see it, based on what we’ve seen from each team thus far this year. Things can change when the season goes from non-conference to Big Ten. But that’s what the eyeball test tells me at this point, with the asterisk that Minnesota has been beating up lightweights.
Minnesota doesn’t have great WRs or the pass game philosophy to take advantag of MSU’s pass defense blemishes. But, overall, you can just trust Minnesota to be better-organized and less mistake-prone on defense than Michigan State. As for game-changing offensive talent, Michigan State has an edge with wide receiver play and had better get amplified results in that area to keep up with whatever Ibrahim does.
Why would you pick Michigan State? Because Michigan State won a lot of games last year, has a bigger name, and no one is used to thinking of Minnesota as a quality program. That’s why. If that’s enough for you.
Minnesota’s o-line looked very good in the first three games. But realize I would have said the same thing about MSU’s o-line after the first two weak opponents, and I did say it. But the Michigan State o-line didn’t look as good as Minnesota’s, when punching down at weaklings. For Michigan State to win this game, the Gopher o-line needs to be not quite as good as I think it is and the Michigan State run defense, especially at linebacker, needs to be better than I think it is.
Minnesota’s roster is packed with seniors, fifth-year seniors and key sixth-year seniors. The togetherness seems strong. Like I said last week, if Michigan State wins this game, it probably won’t get the credit it deserves. A win by Michigan State in this game will look very good as the season progresses. It will be very difficult to achieve, and in order to do it, the Spartans will need to have erased those negative inches Tucker talked about, and will need to have improved immensely from week three to week four, just a few days after it seemed Michigan State REGRESSED from weeks two to week three.
Michigan State needs a win to restore faith that this isn’t going to be a step-backward season. The opponent has no intentions of cooperating. That stuff about relentlessness and keep chopping? It needs to be in full effect on Saturday.
