The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State vs Ohio State
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
Columbus, Ohio - Michigan State has been here before. As a program, as a people.
Not necessarily with these particular people - Payton Thorne, Jayden Reed, Kenneth Walker III, Xavier Henderson - but they’ve heard the stories and seen the film of upsets over Top 5, National Championship-seeking Ohio State in 1972, ’74, ’98, and 2013 and ’15.
Now, this group of Spartans has a chance to make history. Unlike the ’72, ’74 and ’98 Spartans, this year’s team is also a Top 10 unit with aspirations of championships, more similar to the ’13 and ’15 teams.
However, this year’s Spartans don’t have the experience, depth and physical maturity of the ’13 and ’15 teams as Mel Tucker is only two years into his reshuffling process.
Despite this being the biggest national-stage game in college football of the weekend, and a Round of 32 game of sorts in the College Football Playoff picture, no one is giving Michigan State a chance to win.
Ohio State’s offense is too strong, especially its pass defense. That matches up directly with MSU’s glaring weakness, its pass defense.
Michigan State will need Ohio State mistakes in order to stay competitive. But Ohio State doesn’t make many mistakes on offense.
Winning this game seems like a near-impossibility for Michigan State. Almost as impossible as starting this season 8-0, and being 9-1 with a shot at the College Football Playoff heading into the 11th game of the season.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Wednesday night at Hinkle Fieldhouse, I was talking to some people and they asked me what were MSU’s chances of beating Ohio State. I said Michigan State definitely COULD beat Ohio State. This is college football, and as long as you’re not the 2020 Crimson Tide or the 2019 LSU Tigers, most good teams have a shot against Top 5 teams. And I estimated that OSU would probably beat Michigan State 14 times if they played 15 times.
But then I studied the OSU vs Nebraska tape a little further, and I started liking MSU’s chances a bit more, mainly because some chinks in the OSU armor presented themselves. OSU still has the trump cards with those great WRs and a terrific QB. But I altered the unscientific BDI (balding dome index) and decided that if these teams played seven times, Michigan State would win once.
Changing from a 1 in 15 chance to a 1 in 7 chance seems like a big percentage shift in MSU’s favor. Like it was something positive and optimistic. But when doing the math, that’s still just a 14 percent chance of Michigan State victory.
I saw that one of the Vegas oddsmakers has Ohio State with a 96 percent chance of winning. I disagree with that. I’ll stick with 86 (1 in 7 chance) for OSU.
That’s supposed to make you feel better.
**
Ohio State has the best offense in the country. Three outstanding WRs, a very good TE, a rising star RB, and an excellent facilitator in QB C.J. Stroud.
Stroud had some shaky moments against Nebraska’s zone pressures. Michigan State ran a lot of zone pressures and zone blitzes last week against Maryland, and had some success with them on third down. Michigan State will do that again this week and OSU will have worked against it.
MSU’s pass defense has been consistently generous all season. But Michigan State has altered some of the subtleties of its pass defense from week to week. Michigan State has decent individual talent. The Spartans have given up big numbers but it’s not as if the talent is so bad that they are doomed to give up 400 yards passing every single week. It’s turned out that way, but it doesn’t have to stay that way. It’s likely to remain that way against OSU’s aerial assault, but a respectable performance from MSU’s pass defense could come at any time. Mark that down. The personnel is not that bad.
That being said, it’s almost a given that Stroud will throw for at least 375 in this game, and possibly more than 400.
But if MSU’s offense is possessing the ball, and finishing in the red zone, and if Michigan State is limiting OSU’s big plays, containing the run and stiffening in the red zone, then you can beat Ohio State even if you give up 400 yards through the air. The Michigan and Maryland scripts are examples of this on MSU’s behalf. And Oregon beat Ohio State while giving up 400-plus yards through the air and 600 yards of total offense.
But OSU is of course much better than Maryland, and possibly better than Michigan, and the Buckeyes are much better on defense than they were in the week two loss to Oregon.
The question is whether Michigan State can improve its pass defense at this late stage and resurrect a semblance of its pass rush that was so good in the first half of the season.
Ohio State fans were starting to get a little anxious about things after a pair of itchy wins against Penn State and Nebraska. Last week’s 59-31 win against Purdue settles the nerves a bit, and perhaps causes eyes to gaze toward Ann Arbor.
Fifty-five percent of fans responding to a Cleveland Plain Dealer poll are picking Michigan State +18 to cover against Ohio State. That’s not a huge thing, but Buckeyes fans are usually more confident than that. There is a level of concern about Ohio State’s defense and its red zone offense.
The fact that Michigan State is bringing in the Big Ten’s No. 2 scoring offense (in conference games), the Big Ten’s No. 2 offense in yards per play and the Big Ten’s No. 4-ranked red zone defense in TD percentage allowed (in conference games), and No. 10 in the nation, makes for an intriguing numbers matchup.
Those numbers, and MSU’s 9-1 record, and the presence of Heisman Trophy Candidate Kenneth Walker III, SHOULD snap Ohio State’s attention away from Ann Arbor and result in a battle-ready, revved up legion of Buckeyes for this particular assignment. You would think there would be zero sneak-up effect in MSU’s favor this weekend. If that’s the case, and Ryan Day - who has never lost a Big Ten game as head coach - has the Buckeyes properly-oiled, then MSU’s chances of victory will instantly drop a few pegs.
Those Michigan State numbers were amassed with guys like Jalen Nailor, Jarrett Horst and Walker doing things ranging from good to great. Nailor isn’t expected to play, after going down with a hand injury during the Michigan game. Horst isn’t expected to play, either. Walker nursed an ankle injury during the Maryland game. It’s been a recurring problem at times this year, despite Walker’s legend-in-the-making season. Don’t be surprised if Walker’s giddy-up is reduced this weekend from the start.
So, some of the elements which produced those impressive numbers might not be at MSU’s disposal.
Penn State is faster than Michigan State on defense, and was able to keep Ohio State contained in some regards.
Nebraska is much better at the linebacker level in pass defense than Michigan State. Nebraska has a slight edge over Michigan State in physicality up front on defense, too, especially with Simeon Barrow’s status uncertain.
The OSU-Oregon game was three months and a defensive coordinator ago. There isn’t much to cull from that game, aside from the work of Oregon’s quick, tireless offensive line. That unit was great that day.
MSU’s o-line has been pretty good this year, marking a major improvement from previous years. But it’s a group that isn’t up to Oregon’s level. However, this Michigan State o-line surprised me with the way it hammered Michigan for 200 yards rushing. Walker might not have all the RPMs he had on that day, but if Michigan State’s run game could do it against a Michigan run defense that is almost as good as Ohio State’s, then we shouldn’t count out this o-line from surprising us again, especially with four super-charged Ohio natives in the o-line playing group.
Can we pick and choose elements from these games, especially the Nebraska and Penn State, that are applicable to Michigan State in trying to find a path to victory for the Spartans?
We’ll try.
First of all, Ohio State was one or two bounces away from losing both of those games to Nebraska and Penn State.
Many of us see the inflated margins of victory in other games, and all the amazing highlights. But the fact is Nebraska had the ball, down six, with a chance to win in the final minutes, and had a chance to cover a sack fumble at midfield with two minutes to go, down six. A friendly bounce or a friend flag on a pass interference no-call and Ohio State would have been heels to the cliff in that game.
Penn State was down by 6 when it hit a WR on a wheel route for a 70-yard TD which was called back because the WR was out of bounds on his route. Ohio State might have rallied to win anyway, but let the record show that OSU was involved in a pair of even-matched, bare-knuckle scraps with the 3-7 Huskers and the 6-4 Nittany Lions.
As for a double-asterisk, we should also point out that in college football, you aren’t necessarily what your record says you are. I think we all agree Nebraska was better than Michigan State when they played in October, and might be better right now than the Spartans. As for Penn Stare, we’ll learn more next week .
However, Nebraska finds a way to beat itself. Michigan State hasn’t done much of that this year. That, and an explosive offense, and good red zone defense, and (usually) good special teams, has made Michigan State good enough to win nine times in 10 games. You think that’s easy? Ask the people in Gainesville and Austin what they would give for some of that secret sauce.
THE NEBRASKA EXAMPLE
If Michigan State is looking for reason to believe it can hang with the Buckeyes, the Nebraska game film should provide plenty of it.
The first thing Michigan State needs to do is avoid a 1980s Mike Tyson early knockout. Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue and Indiana were out of the game by the end of the first half.
Scores at the end of the first half
Ohio State 35, Maryland 10
Ohio State 44, Indiana 7
Ohio State 45, Purdue 17
Score at the end of the first quarter:
Ohio State 31, Rutgers 6
Ohio State doesn’t need help. Don’t fumble twice and shank a punt on your first four possessions like Purdue did.
The first goal is to survive the first half.
Clues to a path to victory in the first half as shown by Nebraska in the first half:
+ Gain first downs on offense. If you must punt, punt from midfield.
+ Get positive yards on first down via the run game, modest 4-yard gains are good. Nebraska did this. Michigan State has the ability to do this.
+ Play action passes to intermediate throws in the middle of the field, hooks and over routes and TE to the seam. OSU didn’t disguise its defense a lot vs Purdue and Nebraska. A poised QB like Thorne, if he has time, should be able to replicate some passing success OSU opponents have had over the middle. (OSU did disguise coverages and bring assorted pressures against Penn State. OSU pressured the QB, accumulated sacks, but also gave up more than 300 yards passing. So maybe they felt that wasn’t the best course of action. But they can and are willing to try to be aggressive and disguise coverages. Whether or not they do that against Thorne remains to be seen. If they stay static and telegraph their coverages like they did against Nebraska, Thorne could find a rhythm).
+ Need one explosive play to go your way in the first half, like Nebraska had. That’s not asking a lot. Just one favorable shot. Michigan State will try to get more. But just one can be enough in the first half, as Nebraska showed. (Maybe move the pocket to do so. More on that later).
+ Contain the OSU run game. (OSU rushed for only 90 yards on 30 carries for the game with a long gainer of 22 yards. Penn State also contained the ground game until late in the 3Q when RB Henderson broke loose for a game-changing 68-yarder).
+ Tackle on the catch to limit yards after the catch. OSU’s WRs are so dangerous after the catch, especially on routine-looking shallow crossers, hitches, option routes or bubbles. They are so explosive. And the QB gets it to them on time and on target. And downfield blocking is good. (Nebraska was pretty good at limiting yards after the catch, aside from ONE big play which got out for 75 yards on a Smith-Ngigba short hitch which turned into a long catch-and-run. That was a critical error by the Nebraska defense, or perhaps it’s 10-10 at halftime.
+ Zone pressures on third down. You don’t necessarily have to come with a five-man blitz, but the use of a zone pressure (four-man rush with someone coming from the LB level or secondary while a front-line player drops into coverage) seemed to work for Nebraska. Michigan State dabbled with this last week against Maryland on third down and had success with it. That was a good step for a pass defense searching for place to stand.
+ Get great coverage from your LBs (this might be the hardest thing for Michigan State to replicate from the Nebraska recipe).
+ Make your darn field goals (Nebraska did not, otherwise this would have been 17-13 at halftime).
+ Prevent the big one, and then make stops in the red zone. (Michigan State has shown it can do the latter if it can survive the former). OSU has had problems with red zone offense. OSU is obviously working on that area of its game and it wouldn’t be a shock if the Buckeyes suddenly became a red zone juggernaut. But as of now, it’s a maddening weakness for Ohio State. People are getting antsy about it. Force some field goals and hang in the game and The Horseshoe people will grumble. Grumble is good for Michigan State.
**
We’ll get back into the Nebraska example in a moment, but first, the tale of the tape.
Ohio State is 9-1.
Results:
W at Minnesota, 45-31
L vs Oregon, 35-28
W vs Tulsa, 41-20
W vs Akron, 59-7
W at Rutgers, 52-13
W vs Maryland, 66-17
W at Indiana, 54-7
W vs Penn State, 33-24
W at Nebraska, 26-17
W vs Purdue, 59-31
* QB C.J. Stroud’s passing yardage in each game:
294 vs Minnesota
484 vs Oregon
185 vs Tulsa
319 vs Akron
330 vs Rutgers
406 vs Maryland
266 vs Indiana
305 vs Penn State
405 vs Nebraska
361 vs Purdue
On the other side, Penn State’s Sean Clifford completed 35 of 52 passes for for 361 yards.
Nebraska passed for 248, rushed for 113.
Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell threw for 390 yards.
Oregon and Minnesota put up crazy numbers on the ground, but Ohio State changed defensive coordinators after those games and the Buckeyes have been decent in run defense since then.
THE STAT RANKINGS
Big Ten stat rankings (in conference games only).
Rush Offense Yards Per Carry
1. OSU 6.0
2. Michigan State 5.3
Rush Defense, Yards Allowed Per Carry
3. OSU 3.1
4. Michigan State 3.3
Yards Per Pass Attempt
8. OSU
9. Michigan State
Third Down Defense
11 OSU
12 Michigan State
Third Down Offense
1. OSU 53 pct
6 Michigan State 37 pct
(big difference there).
Scoring Defense
6. Ohio State (20 ppg)
8. Michigan State (23.3 ppg)
Sacks Allowed
1. OSU only 5 sacks in 7 big ten games
5. Michigan State (13)
Sacks By
1. Michigan State 23
2. Ohio State 22
Sacks in Overall Games
1. Ohio State 33
2. Michigan State 31
What points and questions do the stats raise?
On paper, Ohio State hasn’t faced a pass rush as good as MSU’s. However, MSU’s pass rush has hit a drought in recent weeks. Michigan State will have some stunts and pressures and probably some new overload looks installed for this game. Will any of it work? Will Jacob Panasiuk return to October form? Can Drew Beesley return to pre-injury form? Will Simeon Barrow play? Can he and Jacob Slade press the pocket like they did in the first half of the season? You’ll find out when I do.
Notice that MSU’s yards per pass attempt defense in Big Ten games isn’t all that bad (No. 9 in the Big Ten) for a unit that ranks dead last in the nation in total pass yards allowed.
That’s my main head scratcher about Michigan State. It’s not like they have cornerbacks who are hopelessly getting Beetlejuiced by wide receivers.
Michigan State held Maryland to less than 90 yards passing for the first 26 minutes of the game last week. Then, with a 27-7 lead, Michigan State went to a soft, two-deep zone for the Terps’ final drive of the half and they sawed through the Spartans in four plays, and suddenly it was 27-14 at halftime and Tagovailoa had found a rhythm.
Michigan State obviously isn’t good enough to stick mainly with a tough, Iowa-style zone and contain you that way (although the Spartans kind of did that at Miami). Michigan State obviously can’t go man-to-man and try to press and run with you all over the field (Michigan targeted safety Angelo Grose when the Spartans tried to do this on Oct. 30. Michigan State hasn’t used Grose in the slot since. He’s become a single-deep safety when Michigan State plays cover-one or cover-three. Henderson has been the guy who has come up into the slot area if and when Michigan State has called for safety deployment near the line of scrimmage for pass defense).
Tagavailoa ended up completing 29 of 48 passes for 350 yards.
Michigan State increased its blitz percentage (up to 42 percent in the game against the Terps).
Michigan State blitzed Purdue only 19 percent of the time. Nothing worked against Purdue. But Purdue was slightly less productive when Michigan State blitzed.
Purdue completed 76 percent of its passes against Michigan State when not blitzed and 63 percent when blitzed.
Pro Football Focus graded Purdue’s passing attack at 91.5 when not blitzed and 74.2 when blitzed.
So Michigan State ramped up its blitz frequency against Maryland, and had success on those occasions.
MSU’s zone pressures on third down seemed to help the Spartans’ struggling third down defense. Michigan State surprisingly held Maryland to 3 of 13 on third down.
A zone pressure is not regarded or recorded as a blitz, if only four pass rushers are rushing.
As for blitzes, Maryland completed only 39 percent of its passes when Michigan State blitzed (9 of 23) for 135 yards.
Maryland completed 71 percent of its passes (20 of 28) when Michigan State didn’t blitz.
(Note, PFF has Maryland with 51 pass attempts while the official book says 48. Maybe PFF has a different criteria for a pass attempt, maybe counting the intentional groundings as incompletions, I don’t know).
Anyway:
This doesn’t mean Michigan State should automatically blitz every opponent more often. But these are encouraging figures as Michigan State tries to figure out its pass defense woes.
**
Michigan State had only one sack against Maryland, but produced three intentional grounding penalties. Pro Football Focus credited Michigan State with 19 QB pressures (1 sack, 14 hurries, 4 QB hits).
Those hits, sacks and hurries came from an assortment of players.
Sack: Jeff Pietrowski.
QB Hits:
LB Noah Harvey (2)
CB Marqui Lowery
DE Tank Brown
QB Hurries:
DE Jacub Panasiuk (4)
DT Jacob Slade (2)
LB Cal Haladay (2)
DE Drew Jordan
DE Drew Beesley
DE Brandon Wright
DT Kyle King
S Xavier Henderson
LB Noah Harvey
Michigan State has been leaky in pass defense, but when the Spartan pass rush is right, it can get productivity from a wide variety of positions and levels. In theory, this could or should mess with a QB’s reads and confidence, but we haven’t seen it have an impact on pass defense between the 20-yard lines.
As for CJ Stroud, he has had equal success when blitzed or not blitzed.
For the year, he is completing 69 percent of his passes when not blitzed and 67 percent when blitzed.
The question is whether the blitzes are creating pressure.
Like most mortal QBs, his success rate is reduced when feeling pressure.
When under pressure he is completing 53 percent of his passes for the year (with 5 TDs and 2 INTs).
When kept clean, he is completing 72.8 percent with 25 TDs and 3 INTs.
[Payton Thorne is 70 percent when clean and way down to 40 percent when pressured.]
**
One other note about the Maryland/Tagovailoa sample.
True, he threw for 350 yards. That’s not good on Michigan State. Interestingly, he was just 4 of 8 on passes thrown 10 to 19 yards downfield, and was 3 of 7 on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield.
22 of his completions were thrown within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage, including eight which were completed behind the line of scrimmage. Cornerbacks weren’t getting beat on these plays. MSU’s underneath coverage needs to tighten up.
APPLES TO APPLES
Ohio State is pretty much better at every position, aside from safety, and the possible exception of RB.
Kenneth Walker III when healthy is probably better than OSU RB Treveyon Henderson, but don’t be surprised if Henderson ends up becoming a higher draft pick when it’s his turn.
When Slade and Barrow are right, Michigan State might be as good as Ohio State’s defensive tackles. Haskell Garrett is supposed to be great, but I thought he was a little mediocre against Oregon, and he was injured at mid-season. He’s supposed to be closer to up to speed now.
I wouldn’t trade Xavier Henderson for Ohio State safety Bryson Shaw.
Michigan State is also better at punter with Bryce Barringer.
**
THE OREGON GAME
Let’s shift gears way back to OSU’s lone loss. What the heck happened in the Oregon game?
Briefly:
Ohio State out-gained Oregon 612-505. Seriously, when has a team ever gained more than 600 yards in a football game and lost? OSU only had one turnover, and that was late in the game.
Oregon ran the ball, controlled the ball, controlled the game.
Oregon had leads of 21-7 and 28-14 in the third quarter, and 35-21 in the fourth quarter and never made a major mistake, and kept answering.
Oregon took a 21-7 lead on a 77-yard TD run by RB C.J. Verdell.
Ohio State made a gap error on that play with LB Teradja Mitchell (No. 3) and DT Taron Vincent (No. 6) both ending up the C-gap. No one was in the B-gap. Verdell blasted through. Safety Bryson Shaw didn’t look good in trying to tackle him in space and never put a hand on him.
I thought Oregon’s offensive line was QUICK and extremely well-conditioned. Oregon’s recruiting effort has been big on o-line procurement, with Ducks head coach Cristobal being a former o-line coach. And Oregon’s strength coach is one of the highest-paid in the nation. Those factors came together for this unit on this day and the Oregon o-line looked very, very good in September. They were quick, when getting out to the LB level on inside runs, or when pulling and winning the edge on outside zones or buck sweeps. Over and over, with the QB run threat sewn in. OSU got rooked on that day.
Oregon took a 35-21 lead with 10:15 left when OSU safety Bryson Shaw got turned inside-out on a split zone play-action fake. He left the TE uncovered and wide open heading to the end zone, with OSU so drunk with trying to stop the run.
Ballgame.
Ohio State tried some zone, mostly tried man-to-man, tried two-gapping, tried one-gapping, but quality control was poor on defense.
OSU coach Ryan Day fired his defensive coordinator after that game. OSU has played more zone since then. The run defense has improved dramatically, to the point that OSU’s run defense now is pretty good, but still not great.
***
My notes from that game at the time:
* Oregon had a better, more mobile, more varied offensive line. And better inside LBs than OSU.
* OSU LBs and safeties unsound at times in scheme and quality control. Oregon is the better-coached defense.
* Is there a better offensive guard in the country than No. 53 for Oregon? I can’t remember the last time an offensive guard had an impact on as many plays as he did in this game. Tireless.
* OSU wasn’t strong enough to two-gap on the defensive line, but they attempted it.
* LBs poor knack at two-gapping, jumping gaps, shuffle stacking.
* LBs and nickel sloppy in pass defense assignments whether it zone or man.
* OSU DT Haskell Garrett was not strong enough to two-gap.
* 14 Hickman screwed up a blitz/cover-three in the flat for a big third-and-11 conversion in the first half.
* Guys in coverage not picking up the tight end, getting caught staring at the QB. In man-to-man, two or three guys ignored the TE on a delayed release.
* CB and LB not executing a crack and replace on outside runs.
BACK TO THE NEBRASKA EXAMPLE
I could go over OSU’s individual personnel here, but you know who most of the guys are. And we’ll get to that.
I still think the OSU vs Nebraska sample is the most intriguing piece to analyze.
I’m going to go into a lot of play-by-play and scheme-by-scheme detail in the following paragraphs because the OSU vs Nebraska game represents a script that Michigan State is somewhat capable of replicating, if things bounce right. Stay with me.
No pundits, including myself, are giving Michigan State a chance to win this game. Chances are you have watched OSU a little bit this year, but mostly just seen their high margins of victory and amazing highlights. But OSU has not dominated every minute of every game since losing to Oregon.
The Buckeyes are still very much beatable, and there are a handful of teams in the Big Ten capable of beating them on a given day, including Michigan State, including Nebraska, including Penn State and including Purdue. Purdue had that chance last week, and vomited on their shoes. Just because you are capable of beating OSU on a given day doesn’t mean you’ll get it done when it’s your chance.
Now it’s MSU’s chance.
But first, let’s rewind to Nebraska’s chance:
WHAT NEBRASKA DID ON OFFENSE:
* Early in the game, the Huskers merely got first downs. That’s so important. Get first downs. Get to midfield, and then punt if you must.
Nebraska did that. The Huskers missed a field goal that would have given them a 3-0 lead, and then punted from midfield a couple of times. Next thing you know, it’s 0-0 in the second quarter and you’ve avoided the Mike Tyson early TKO.
Other than the missed field goal, the Huskers didn’t beat themselves, early on. That’s simple, but also difficult to do.
The Purdue Boilermakers beat themselves in the first half with a fumbled kickoff, a fumbled QB/RB exchange, and a shanked 12-yard punt, giving OSU a short field three times (and then having a gap error on defense for a 67-yard TD run).
Boom, it was 21-7 and OSU hadn’t stopped Purdue on three of their first five drives; Purdue stopped itself. Purdue’s first five drives went punt, TD, unforced fumble, punt, unforced fumble.
Boom, it’s 28-7.
* Getting back to the Nebraska game:
Nebraska took pretty good care of the ball, for a change.
Nebraska had only one turnover. OSU had two (Stroud threw two INTS. More on that later).
* On offense, Nebraska didn’t abandon the run. And then Nebraska had some success with play action pass WITH A HALF ROLL. No need to naked boot all over the place (although Michigan State does that reasonably well). Just do a half roll. Stay protected, but move the launch point.
With the half roll, Nebraska hit WR Toure with a 72-yard TD. He beat CB 12 Lathon Ransom in man-to-man (single safety deep). Nebraska ran a slant/post to the right side. Safety bit on the slant and left Ransom alone in green space against Toure.
One big play and Nebraska cut the lead to 17-10 for halftime.
WHAT DID NEBRASKA DO ON DEFENSE?
OSU didn’t score in the first quarter. That’s a news flash.
First drive: OSU turned it over on downs.
What happened?
- QB Stroud was stopped short on third-and-two speed option keeper on the opening drive at Nebraska. (not a great play call. Stroud isn’t fond of running the ball. And that’s part of the reason for OSU’s problems in the red zone. Unlike past great OSU teams, the QB run component is not a natural for him and this team).
If you see Stroud have an impact as a runner in this game, you’ll know it was a point of emphasis, and mark of improvement for the Buckeyes. But up to this point, it’s a soft spot and a sore spot.
* After the speed option stoppage, OSU went for it on fourth-and-one. They threw deep to TE Ruckert on a deep seam. Good ball, pass broken up by good LB coverage.
Linebacker pass coverage for Nebraska in this game was huge. That’s the part Michigan State can’t replicate right now.
Second OSU drive: INT near the red zone.
What happened?
- Stroud on a play action boot. Throwing on the run to Smith-Njigba on a comeback. INT by a Husker LB along the sideline. Nebraska with zone pressure (four man rush, LB rush, DE drop) and LBs matching up underneath.
Zone pressures, for whatever reason, had a little bit of success for Nebraska at just enough key moments to keep things competitive.
Third drive: OSU three and out.
What happened?
- Stroud missed Smith-Ngiba on a short out route, thrown at his feet.
- On third-and-six, Nebraska came with a four-man rush, a zone pressure (meaning a disguised player from the back seven joined the rush, but a d-lineman dropped into coverage). This muddies the picture for the QB and pass protection just a little bit while keeping the standard seven in pass defense. Nebraska played a cover-four zone. QB Stroud found no one open initially, was flushed out of the pocket and got rid of it out of bounds when a LB began converging on him from coverage.
OSU critics felt Stroud should have tried to beat the LB in space with his feet and try to run for first down yardage. Stroud said after the game he is not a runner, he’s a passer. But past OSU QBs - like Justin Fields, Braxton Miller, JT Barrett, Cardale Jones - might have picked up the third-and-short speed option earlier in the game, and would have at least tried to pick up this third-and-six on a scramble.
But Stroud threw it out of bounds. Do that against Michigan State, if the game is tight, and there might be boos.
Fourth OSU Drive:
* Ohio State drove, but Nebraska stiffened in the red zone, Stroud threw a couple of incompletions on second and third down and OSU settled for a field goal and a 3-0 lead in the 2Q.
Then Nebraska shanked a 13-yard punt (former Spartan Will Pryzstup). That gave OSU a short field at the 49-yard line. DO THEM NO FAVORS! Nebraska did them a favor.
Soon it was 10-0 (nice drive of RPOs, and counter runs, and a little sprint out TD pass to WR Olave on a short out).
* Then Nebraska drove and kicked a field goal. Cut it to 10-3. This was somewhat of an even game with 3 minutes to go in the first half. The shanked punt was a difference-maker, as was Nebraska’s missed field goal.
Then OSU on the first play of its next drive hit Smith-Ngigba with a 75-yard TD. It was just a simple hitch at 6 yards against cover-three. He caught it at a standstill, turned, made one miss and outran everyone down the sideline. He has special burst and top gears.
Suddenly it’s 17-3 and you have to fight off the ropes - which Nebraska did (more on that later).
But that’s OSU for you. You can play well, but you have a little breakdown or slippage anywhere, and they can race the distance on you in an instant. DO THEM NO FAVORS! TACKLE ON THE CATCH! LIMIT YARDS AFTER THE CATCH. GET FIRST DOWNS AND PUNT WELL!
So how do you limit yards after the catch? Bend-but-don’t-break zone is the best way to do it, but you’ll be surrendering first downs. Michigan State did it against Miami. The Hurricanes had precious few yards after the catch. Michigan State hasn’t played that soft in coverage recent weeks, and has paid for it (against Michigan, trying to play tighter coverages).
So what might Michigan State do? Mix it up. Disguise it. Some soft zone on some plays. Some zone pressures on other plays with a little less of a drop at the CB position at pre-snap. And mix in some man-to-man under disguise if possible.
Michigan State has done a lot of blitzing on third down. It’s up to OSU to recognize whether the blitzes are five- and six-man rushes with a single safety deep (and man-to-man), or if it’s a zone pressure which might look like a blitz for an instant, but becomes something more equipped to cover the shallow crosser which OSU loves so much.
If you can play man-to-man AND cover the shallow crosser WR (maybe with a man-drop d-lineman), maybe you can bait and switch and survive another round and take the game into the deep water.
This is all theoretical stuff. And everything looks good on the chalkboard. Everyone has a plan, as Tyson used to say, until they get hit in the mouth. OSU is going to be fully capable of hitting Michigan State in the mouth. Michigan State needs to duck that hook and dig to the body.
OSU Drive Four (vs Nebraska): FG, 3-0
OSU Drive Five (short field ) TD, 10-0
OSU Drive Six (1-play, 75-yard hitch and run to Smith-Ngigba, 17-3
OSU Drive Seven (three and out, Nebraska stopped the inside zone).
Halftime, OSU 17, Nebraska 10.
In the second half:
* Nebraska had some success early in the second half against Stroud, mixing in man-to-man for one play, then showing man-to-man at pre-snap on the next and instead playing cover-six zone. Nebraska got late pressure on him, almost a coverage sack, but he threw it away for an INC.
Michigan State is capable of changing pictures like that.
* Nebraska stopped OSU’s second drive of the second half. On third-and-nine, Nebraska played cover-four, with a fourth rusher added from the LB level as a zone pressure. Stroud found no one, kept looking and reading, holding on OG Paris Johnson. Punt. Nebraska down 20-10 with 5:30 left in the 3Q.
* OSU’s next drive stalled in the red zone. Third-and-two, Nebraska rushed five and went man-to-man. Nebraska didn’t send more than four on the pass rush very often, but saved one for this occasion in the red zone. That’s MSU’s style, too. OSU ran a little return route to Smith-Ngigba, but Stroud was inaccurate on the short pass. Field goal, 23-10 with 2:05 left in the third quarter.
Ohio State in control, but not out of danger. PLAY WELL IN THE RED ZONE on defense against an OSU offense that is strangely weak in the red zone.
* Then Nebraska QB Martinez found WR Toure again, this time in man-to-man. OSU did not disguise its man-to-man at pre-snap.
Toure got separation vs 12’s off coverage on an over route. Easy read for Martinez. Then 12 (Lathon Ransom) missed a tackle on the catch and Toure gained 34 more yards after that missed tackle (and a missed tackle by safety 17 Bryson) down to the 1-yard line.
Next play, Martinez keeper for a 1-yard TD and it was 23-17 going into the fourth quarter.
NOTE: No. 12 is not a starter. He’s a back-up. But he will get playing time. Attack him in the slot with Jayden Reed if and when you catch OSU in man-to-man.
**
So what did Nebraska do to get here?
1. Contained the OSU run.
2. Somewhat established the Nebraska run.
3. Got two big plays on offense (both against No. 12 Lathon Ransom).
4. Somewhat limited OSU’s big plays and forced them to try to score TDs in the red zone.
5. Played good defense in the red zone, forcing two field goals. Boom. 23-17.
(If Nebraska had gotten just a few more first downs at key junctures and better play from the punt team, OSU wouldn’t have had two short-field scoring drives. So it’s not like Nebraska was playing a perfect game).
Now this was done in front of a great crowd in Lincoln. Michigan State won’t benefit from that kind of juice on Saturday. Instead, OSU will get that fuel.
But still, you don’t have to be 2020 Alabama to hang with this Ohio State team. But you do need good linebacker pass coverage and I’m not sure Michigan State has that.
**
Fourth quarter vs Nebraska:
* After Nebraska cut it to 23-17, Stroud threw an ill-advised deep pass into coverage for an INT (against a zone pressure) on the first play of the 4Q with Ohio State losing momentum.
First play of Nebraska’s next drive, OSU went with a dime defense (six DBs) on first-and-10 for the first time in the game.
OSU one-gapped on the defensive front with six defenders against six blockers. This left OSU a gap short and too skewed to stop the pass. RB found that daylight for a 12-yard gain on a split zone run. Longest tailback run of the day for Nebraska, out near midfield and the upset sirens were officially sounded at this point.
**
Then OSU inexplicably stayed with the 4-1-6 defense rather than its base 4-2-5. They took a LB out of the game and replaced him with a 190-pound cornerback Williamson (No. 5).
Nebraska went to the ground for gains of 12, 9, 2, 17, 4, 3, 5 and 3 consecutively.
Nebraska had it third-and-four at the 16-yard line with 10:36 to play, threatening to take the lead. But Nebraska went to the air, threw an incompletion and missed another field goal. Scott Frost said a cuss word and wanted to kill the kicker.
Third-and-four? Frost would probably wish he had run it twice there. OSU was on its heels.
Why OSU went to the 4-1-6 I’ll never know.
But the script to victory against OSU was clear, and it doesn’t take Hudini magic or the ’85 Bears.
* On OSU’s next drive, the Buckeyes moved to the Nebraska 35-yard line. Nebraska went to cover-one/man-to-man and the OLB pressured Stroud as he tried a naked bootleg pass for the first time in the game. Nebraska happened to have the right defensive call, Stroud was pressured immediately, threw it away, was flagged for intentional grounding and a 9-yard loss. OSU punted three plays later.
* Nebraska had the ball back, down by 6, at its own 10-yard line, 6 minutes to go, and 90 yards away from the upset of the season.
Martinez gained 21 on a scramble (OSU dropped into cover four; Martinez with a half roll, and go).
Then Nebraska threw three incompletions. The last of which should have resulted in a pass interference flag.
* OSU then drove for a field goal and a 26-17 which pretty much put the game away.
But first, with OSU up by 6, OSU got away with a blatant hold on a counter gap run on a second-down for a Henderson gain of 11.
Later, on third-and-four at the OSU 40-yard line with 8:00 to play, Stroud hit Olave on a 6-yard rub play. Nebraska played a straight cover-four without a blitz or zone pressure.
Next play, Nebraska rushed a safety on a cover-three zone pressure, and OSU answered with an RPO pass to Smith-Ngigba for 19 yards.
But OSU did something stupid again.
On first-and-10 at the Nebraska 34-yard line with 2:01 to play, Ryan Day and OSU went to the air.
Left tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere gave up a sack on a rip move. Stroud fumbled the ball on the sack, but Ohio State’s center pounced on the loose ball after an 11-yard loss at the 45-yard line.
If Nebraska covers that fumble at the 45, down by 6, with 2 minutes to go … look out.
Two pass plays and 16 yards later, OSU hit a 46-yard field goal to go up 26-17 with 1:32 left and cinch the game.
But if pass interference had been called earlier, or maybe the holding penalty, or if that fumble had turned out differently, the landscape of the Big Ten and College Football Playoff might look different today.
OTHER SOLID OFFENSIVE PLAYS FOR NEBRASKA
+ Down 10-0, QB Martinez hit TE for about 25 yards on a seam route against a six-man rush (a rare blitz for OSU in this game).
+ Down 10-0, QB Martinez hit WR on a 16-yard hook. OSU showed zone. Nebraska with a play action half roll. WRs in tight in a condensed formation. Martinez could envision that route and throw at pre-snap with OSU not disguising anything.
* 26 yard over route against cover three. Four man rush, had time to throw.
THE STATS
QB Martinez was 16 of 31 for 248. Not great. Not bad. Thorne can do that, and more.
Nebraska rushed for 113 yards. RB Rahiim Johnson rushed for 62 yards.
OHIO STATE RUN DEFENSE VS K-9
In order to win this game, Michigan State almost certainly needs to establish the run.
How have other teams run the ball against OSU in recent weeks?
Purdue 19 attempts, 91 yards (4.8 per)
Purdue tailbacks 18-84 (4.6)
Longest run by a tailback: 11 yards.
Nebraska 34-113 (3.3)
Tailbacks 16-62 (3.9)
Longest run by a tailback: 12 yards.
Penn State 29-33 (1.1)
Tailbacks 21-42 (2.0)
Longest run by a tailback: 11 yards.
Indiana 37-48 (1.3)
Tailbacks 18-47 (2.6)
Longest run by a tailback: 10 yards.
Maryland 36-56 (1.6)
Tailbacks 26-119 (4.5)
Longest run by a tailback: 30 yards.
Rutgers 31-111 (3.6)
Tailbacks 12-57 (4.7)
Longest run by a tailback: 21 yards.
Minnesota rushed for 203 yards against OSU and Oregon rushed for 269. Then they changed coordinators and have been improving
But in the last six games, no team has rushed for more than 113 yards against Ohio State (and that was Nebraska).
Maryland’s tailbacks rushed for 119 yards, but more than 60 yards in losses due to sacks backed the team rushing numbers for the Terps to just 56 yards. But in terms of true tailback carries, the Terps did some damage at 4.5 per carry.
THE TAKEAWAY: Ohio State’s run defense is good, but not great. They have been trending better, now comes a good challenge from Michigan State.
Kenneth Walker III has been great at times this year. MSU’s run blocking has been mediocre at times and quite good at other times (see the Michigan game).
Maryland stuffed the box with an extra helmet to contain Walker. He had a hard-earned 140-plus yards against a defense that isn’t as fast or talented as Ohio State’s.
OSU isn’t likely to stack the box. They may think they can stop the run with the standard number, and keep the pass defense with its regular numbers. Of course, they could always go away from this and begin stacking the box. But I expect OSU to try to play it standard to begin with.
THE MUST LIST
(Aside from winning the turnover battle, protecting the QB, putting heat on the QB, establishing the run and stopping the run. Those are the weekly obvious things).
Aside from those, these are things Michigan State needs to do:
* Continue to play great defense in the red zone. Michigan State is No. 2 in TD pct allowed in the Big Ten and No. 8 in the country.
* But first, you need to make OSU try to score from the red zone, rather than 50 or 80 yards out. In other words, don’t give up the big play. That’s easier said than done, but in this game it is especially critical due to OSU’s shaky TD percentage in the red zone and MSU’s strangely strong red zone defense percentage. Make those two items match up.
Preventing big plays will do three things for Michigan State: 1. Obviously it will help on the scoreboard. 2. Play to your strengths and wage the war in the red zone. 3. If OSU has to go 8 or 10 or 12 plays to score, then that will run clock and shorten the game.
* No false start penalties, no first-and-15 gifts to the OSU defense. (Holding penalties aren’t good either, but some of those are forced by the defense. False starts are unforced, even with crowd noise, Michigan State needs to avoid them.) This won’t be easy. Crowd noise will be a factor. Michigan State hasn’t played in a truly loud stadium this year.
* Limit the yards after the catch. OSU is lethal with yards after the catch, especially on shallow crossing routes if they catch you in man-to-man. Easier said than done, but you need to be on those guys on the catch.
* Obviously Michigan State is going to need some explosive plays on offense. Michigan State has been able to grease-board its way to some surprise explosives this year at times. Michigan State will have some elements sewn in that they hope will create some quick strikes, if they get them in the right coverage they are looking for and perhaps a matchup advantage (like against 12 when he’s in the game at CB).
Nebraska was down 17-3 but stayed in it with a deep post vs cover-one. LBs bit on the run fake (establishing the run made the OSU LBs preoccupied with the run and they didn’t get a re-route on the deep post). OSU was aggressive in pass defense with man-to-man on all three WRs, two in press. (So you want to be aggressive? Okay, play press across the board with a single safety deep. That’s the opposite of bend-but-don’t-break. Turns out they broke on that play).
Nebraska got the deep shot. When the opportunities present themselves, Michigan State must connect. OSU’s pass rush is good, but it’s not as good as Michigan’s from an individual standpoint.
* Jay Johnson and Scottie Hazelton, please step forward. Johnson has been good this year, week-in and week-out. Hazelton has a great reputation and continues to work the wrenches. I’ve often said that in upset situations, we need to see players perform like we don’t know they can. In this game, Johnson and Hazelton need to step forward as rising coordinators and come up with some gems like we don’t know they can.
O-line coach Chris Kapilovic had some wrinkles against Michigan’s Bear front on Oct. 30. That’s the type of pixie dust that can’t be predicted, but is needed.
THE PENN STATE SAMPLE
* Penn State contained the run and hit hard on defense. They played fast on defense. They have good players. Sheesh.
* Penn State led 7-3 late in the first half, but gave up a deep shot TD on an over route for 38 yards, and it was 10-7, Buckeyes.
* PSU was answering with a good drive to the OSU 38-yard line, but OSU got a sack, fumble and 56-yard return for a TD and a 17-7 lead with 2:24 left in the first half.
* Penn State battled back to tie the game at 17-17 in the third quarter with QB Clifford working the middle of the zone with digs and in routes. OSU brought pressure, but PSU did a good job of playing keep away and featuring WR Dotson on possession routes.
* But on OSU’s first play of the ensuring drive, Stroud found Smith-Ngigba on a 6-yard option route hitch against a six-man blitz. And just like he did for the 75-yard TD at Nebraska, he turned and made two players miss and sprinted 58 yards to the PSU 15-yard line.
* OSU’s red zone offense failed on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line with a false start by RB Henderson. Had to kick a field goal and went up 20-17. Prior to that, OSU was hammering the run but PSU stood tough enough to get it to fourth-and-goal at the 1.
* Game changer: On the first play of a drive late in the third quarter, Henderson raced 68 yards on an inside zone. A Penn State defensive tackle got his shoulders turned and didn’t properly fit the gap. Two plays later it was 27-17 with 3:30 left in the third quarter.
* PSU answered with a balanced TD drive, carving up the zone, and pounding it across the goal line with a 1-yard TD run.
* At this point, OSU led 27-23, but Penn State seemed like the more consistent team. The difference was the scoop-and-score and Henderson’s 58-yard run. OSU was fortunate they weren’t trailing 23-13 heading into the fourth quarter.
* OSU red zone offense then failed again. On third-and-seven, PSU sent a six-man rush with man-to-man in the back. OSU went to the shallow crossing route to Smith-Ngigba for a completion but PSU had the speed in the secondary to tackle him. Not sure Michigan State has that kind of speed. PSU is fast back there.
OSU went for it on fourth down. Stroud threw INC for Olave on a slot fade. Olave was wide open due to a PSU coverage bust but Stroud just kind of threw it into the ground. Maybe a WR/QB miscommunication. Strange one with 12:51 left in the game and OSU up 27-24.
* Three plays later, PSU threw an INT. OSU defensive end Tyreke Smith with a QB hit as part of a six-man rush. Clifford went deep, left it way short. INT by OSU CB Cam Brown returned to the PSU 28-yard line.
Red zone offense failed again. Tunnel screen, a stuffed run, and then an INC back shoulder fade attempt for Wilson.
Field goal made it 30-24 with 7:16 left.
* PSU then hit WR for a 70-yard TD on a wheel but went out of bounds on the route and it was called back for illegal touching.
* OSU regained possession and drove for a clock-melting, game-cinching late field goal.
THE TAKEAWAY: Penn State was surprisingly excellent at times in this game. The game flipped on one or two plays.
Ohio State is good, but they aren’t great. Not yet. Not sure they will get there. Not sure they will beat Michigan. And if they aren’t careful, they could get in trouble against Michigan State.
THINGS TO KNOW:
* Sometimes OSU might get away from the run game a little too much.
* 13 passes on first 18 plays vs Nebraska.
That being said, OSU struggled to run the ball in the first half against Penn State. On OSU’s first nine rushes, the Buckeyes netted only 8 yards.
Michigan State has a good run defense. Probably not as good as Penn State’s. Not sure Michigan State can replicate that. PSU was hitting HARD.
* In the pass game, OSU likes to use the shallow crosser, the mesh, especially against man to man on third down. And when they catch it, they have great speed after the catch.
* When they cross the 50-yard line, they like to take a shot deep.
* OSU’s third down conversion percentage is ridiculously good. No. 1 in the Big Ten by a mile at 53 percent.
* It’s so hard to stop 11 Smith-Ngiba on the short hitch route from the slot, especially on third down. He runs to the sticks, turns on a dime and Stroud connects with him. Slot coverage has to respect his ability to beat you deep, then he shuts it down with a sticks route.
* Against Purdue, OSU attacked with the pass to the perimeter more than usual. Hit some bubbles.
Then faked a bubble and released 11 Smith-Injigba as the inside WR of a bunch downfield, and was left wide open.
* Ryan Day is a terrific play designer and play caller. I give OSU grief for going with a 4-1-6 in the fourth quarter against Nebraska, and for passing on first-and-10 with a 6-point lead at midfield with 2 minutes to go. But he has his job, thanks to Urban Meyer, because he impressed Meyer with his offensive brainwork.
As good as OSU’s QB, RB, WRs, TE and O-line are, they also have a good chessplayer designing the thing.
OHIO STATE PERSONNEL
QB 7 CJ STROUD (6-3, 218, R-Fr., Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.)
* Averaging 337 yards passing per game at 68.8 pct completions.
* 30 TDs 5 INTs.
* Went 151 straight throws without an INT prior to the Nebraska game three weeks ago.
* Is excellent with the touch pass over the linebackers and in front of, or between, the safeties.
++ One of the better plays I’ve seen him make came with :14 seconds left in the third quarter at Nebraska. Nebraska had just scored to cut the lead to 23-17 and Memorial Stadium was going ape crap.
On second-and-five, OSU motioned a receiver to create a three-receiver bunch. Nebraska played cover-four zone.
Two of those receivers ran directly at one of the cornerbacks. Cornerback had to split the difference between the two as they approached him. Neither receiver broke off their route until several beats into the route. Stroud threw before the inside WR (Smith-Ngigba) broke it off to the inside. As he made his break, the ball was already halfway to him and into his chest. Made the catch against good coverage. Gain of 22. Good coverage, good route concept, good throw. Hushed the crowd for a moment.
Just an example of the concepts they can put on you, and the comfort level the QB has with those WRs. That was Ryan Day stuff and Stroud stuff.
* He doesn’t like to run the ball. But he carried for a gain of 6 on a third-and-four zone read option in the red zone early in the 2Q at Nebraska with the score tied 0-0. (He also had a 48-yard TD run against Michigan State last year in mop-up duty off a zone read keeper). He isn’t slow. But he would rather not run.
Opponents have blitzed him 31 percent of the time. There isn’t a big difference in his completion percentage when blitzed (67.4) and not blitzed (69.1).
He has a 14-4 TD-INT ratio when not blitzed.
When blitzed, he has a cleaner 16-1 ratio.
But, like all QBs, he is affected when pressured. Opponents have pressured him only 23 percent of his dropbacks.
His completion percentage drops from 72.8 in a clean pocket to 53.0 when pressured.
His TD-INT ratio is 25-3 when clean, and 5-2 when pressured.
What do those numbers mean? Well, let’s compare it to someone you know, Payton Thorne.
Michigan State has kept Thorne in a clean pocket 72 percent of the time. He has been pressured 27.8 percent of the time.
His TD-INT ratio in a clean pocket is 16-4.
When pressured, the ratio is 5-4.
With a clean pocket, he is completing 69.5 percent of his passes. When pressured, he is only at 41.5 percent completions.
Opponents have blitzed him 34.4 percent of the time, which is a higher blitz rate than Stroud has faced.
By the way, Thorne’s completion percentage drops from 65.2 to 59.4 when blitzed.
His TD/INT ratio is 12-4 when not blitzed and 9-4 when blitzed.
* Had some shaky decisions and inaccurate passes early in the season against Minnesota and Tulsa. Was much cleaner against Rutgers as OSU incorporated more quick-game and shorter throws.
EXAMPLES
* Just because you’ve decided to blitz Stroud doesn’t mean you will succeed. On fourth-and-six in the red zone, Oregon blitzed him (seven man rush, no safety help) and Stroud found Smith-Ngibga on a shallow crosser for a 14-yard TD. The middle defender didn’t have a chance of chasing him down and the pass rush didn’t come close to getting home.
STROUD ERRORS
- Stroud hasn’t had many. Situation, down and distance need to be a factor. OSU’s lone turnover against Oregon came when OSU was backed into a desperate situation. Trailing 35-28, facing third-and-18 with 2:51 left, it was time for Stroud to take a risk.
Oregon brought a three-man rush and covered with eight. Deep cover-three with five defenders crowding the intermediate lanes. Stroud found no one open initially, was flushed from the pocket, and forced a pass down the sideline, on a scramble-rules release to WR Olave. Olave was originally running a shallow crossing route, but turned it upfield when Stroud began to scramble. A good throw would have been completed for about 15 yards, but Stroud, throwing on the run, missed high for the INT.
- Was baited into what should have been a LB INT in the 1q at Nebraska, stared it down vs cover-four zone pressure
- INT in the first quarter at Nebraska. Play acton boot. throw on the run to Smith-Inigba on a comeback. INT by LB along the sideline. Nebraska with zone pressure (four man rush, LB rush, DE drop) and LBs matching up underneath.
- His second INT at Nebraska. First play of the fourth quarter. OSU was up 23-17.
Stroud threw deep into double coverage. An ill-advised decision on first-and-10.
Nebraska was in cover-four. Once again, they dropped the stand-up DE into coverage and rushed a LB. This created a zone pressure (not a zone blitz. It’s a zone blitz if five or more players rush. When it’s a four-man rush, it’s a “pressure” in football parlance). This test the communication and identification skills of the OL a little bit. The OSU center and left guard gave up pressure to a LB/DE u-stunt. Stroud was flushed and let it fly. Error.
* He attempted 54 passes vs Nebraska. Second most in a game in OSU history.
* Former Alabama QB and commentator Greg McElroy on Stroud: “(The Nebraska game) wasn’t his finest hour. I don’t think he saw the field very well. I thought he got a little locked in on WRs and tried to push it tried to take a few too many chances.”
* What makes him good? He has time to throw, you have to honor the running game, they have three great receivers and a head coach/offensive coordinator who specializes in play design and play calling. Stroud just has to make reads and throw accurate passes; he does both well.
WIDE RECEIVERS
* OSU is on pace to having three 1,000-yard receivers.
WR 11 JACKSON SMITH-NJIGBA (6-0, 1908, Soph., Rockwall, Texas)
* 59 catches on the year, averaging 102.7 receiving yards per game.
* 5 TDs.
* Great feel as a slot WR.
* Great route runner, take off and then stops on a dime, a sports car. Makes an 8-yard hitch look like an art form.
* 6 catches vs PSU.
* 6 catches vs Indiana.
* School-record 15 catches for 240 yards against Nebraska.
WR 2 CHRIS OLAVE (6-1, 188, Sr., San Ysidro, Calif.)
* 51 catches, 70.8 yards receiving per game.
* 11 TDs.
* McElroy: “I’d like to see him tighten up his route running just a hair. he’s so smooth.”
* 3 catches 44 yards and a TD vs Penn State.
+ OSU was trailing Penn State 7-3 late in the first half when Stroud found Olave for a 38-yard TD on a deep over route vs cover-three zone.
OSU’s Stroud was under center for this play and threw after a play-action fake to Henderson. Penn State blitzed five. PSU had been stopping the run up to that point in the game, physical up front, and applying consistent pressure.
WR GARRETT WILSON (6-0, 192, Jr., Austin, Texas)
* 53 catches, averaging 90.3 yards receiving per game.
* 9 TDs.
* Great explosiveness
* Missed the Nebraska game.
+ Dangerous on the bubble screen, very good after the catch. Always a threat on reverses.
* Back-up WRs Julian Fleming and Marvin Harrison Jr would be stars for most other teams. They played well in Wilson’s absence at Nebraska.
RUNNING BACKS
* Henderson and Miyan Williams are starting to be described as the best 1-2 running back tandem in the country. Michigan State has already faced one such described tandem in Corum and Haskins of Michigan, and the Spartans controlled them.
RB 32 TREYEVYON HENDERSON (5-10, 215, Fr., Hopewell, Va.)
* 1,028 yards rushing, 7.3 per carry, 102.8 per game.
* 152 yards rushing against Penn State. But he had only 8 yards on his first nine carries. He went into that game leading the FBS in yards per carry at 8.8.
+ Showed good hands with a short reception in the flat for a first down on the opening drive at Nebraska. Good fundamentals and hand selection, catching it out away from his body.
* Was somewhat held to 92 yards on 21 carries at Nebraska.
RB Miyan Williams (5-8, 225, R-Fr., Cincinnati)
* Tough bowling ball type of runner.
* Is No. 1 in the nation in average yards per carry after contact, around 5 yards after contact per carry.
* 436 yards rushing, 7.5 per carry, 62.3 per game.
RB 33 Master Teague (5-11, 225, Jr., Murfreesboro, Tenn.)
* Former starter.
* Injured, missed the Purdue game.
* 260 yards on the year, 5.7 per carry, 43.3 per game.
TIGHT END
TE 88 JEREMY RUCKERT (6-5, 250, Sr., Lindenhurst, NY)
* 22 catches, 3 TDs, averaging 28.4 receiving yards per game with a long of 30 yards.
* Terrific TE, one of the best in the country, but he doesn’t get the ball all that much due to the dominance of the WRs and tailback.
* OSU went to Ruckert on deep seam on fourth-and-one at Nebraska, good ball, pass broken up by good LB coverage.
- Allowed a QB pressure to an OLB on an arm-over move in the second quarter against Nebraska (Stroud was hurried and threw deep after being flushed, flag for pass interference while trying to cover WR 2 Olave).
- Had the ball stripped from him for a fumble on the opening drive against Penn State.
+ Lined up as a wide out and Stroud hit him with a skinny post for about 25 yards during OSU’s game-clinching drive in the final minutes against Penn State.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* The o-line is massive and strong, but I thought they became sloppy as the game wore on at Nebraska. Wondering about their conditioning level.
LT 78 NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE (6-5, 315, Jr., Tampa)
- Allowed pressure on an inside rip move on third-and-seven for a QB hit in the 1Q against Penn State.
- Gave up a sack on a rip move late in the Nebraska game, almost served as a turning point in the game, but OSU recovered.
LG 75 THAYER MUNFORD (6-6, 320, Sr., Cincinnati)
* moved to right tackle vs Nebraska because Jones wasn’t feeling well.
* Venerable player.
(55 Matt Jones, 6-4, 310, Jr., Brooklyn, NY)
* Started against Nebraska and Akron.
+ Can pull, turn the corner and get into his target. Mobile.
- Allowed a QB pressure to Nebraska on a third-and-four in the first quarter, beaten by a chop and swim by Nebraska DT Stille.
C 53 LUKE WYPLER (6-3, 300, R-Fr., Montvale, NJ)
* Started every game.
RG 77 PARIS JOHNSON (6-6, 315, Soph., Cincinnati)
+ Quick to the LB level.
- Beaten by a surprise one-gapping move on third-and-three late in the 1H against Nebraska on an inside zone run attempt. Punt.
- Beaten by a surprise shoulder club and arm-over for a one-gap move for a TFL on a draw play in the 3Q at Nebraska.
RT 79 DAWAND JONES (6-8, 360, Jr., Indianapolis)
* Looked mobile and kind of awesome while combining with 77 on RG/RT double team on an inside zone for about 8 yards in the 2Q against Nebraska.
OHIO STATE DEFENSE
RUSHING DEFENSE
I heard podcaster and former OSU assistant Zach Smith comment on Buckeye tackling. He said OSU is averaging 11.3 missed tackles per game. He compared that to past OSU teams:
2019: 6.9
2018: 7.1
2017: 5.8
2016: 6.3
2015: 6.5
2014: 7.4
They’re not happy with the tackling in Columbus.
* OSU had four sacks 8 TFLs, 3 takeaways vs Penn State.
* In the first two games: OSU allowed 456 ypg, 53 pct third down, 0 INTs, 33 points per game.
* In the next 7 games, after changing coordinators, allowed an average of 327 yards, 39 pct on third down, 11 INTs, 15 points per game.
* OSU dropped eight defenders into pass coverage on two third down stoppages in the 1Q against Purdue. Probably not something they will do against Michigan State.
* Rushing yards allowed: First two games 221 ypg. Next six game, 66 ypg.
* Matt Barnes is the new defensive coordinator.
* He has been at OSU since 2019 when he arrived as an assistant secondary coach.
* Prior to that he was a linebackers coach at Maryland from 2016-18. He came up with DJ Durkin. Was a G.A. for Durkin at Florida and an analyst for Durkin at Michigan, and then Durkin took him with him during his short stint at Maryland.
* OSU has been playing more zone since Barnes took over.
* They have three true freshmen playing in the two deep in the front seven
PASS RUSH
* OSU leads the Big Ten in sacks.
* Didn’t bring a lot of fancy blitzes and pressures against Purdue and Nebraska, but did against Penn State. They were kind of ferocious against PSU, but still gave up well over 300 yards passing.
* Had only one QB pressure on Purdue’s O’Connell.
* 5 sacks against Maryland, 5 sacks against Indiana, 4 sacks against Penn State, 5 sacks against Nebraska.
* 0 sacks against Purdue. According to Pro Football Focus, OSU had only one pressure on the day, no sacks, no QB hits.
* OSU blitzed more against PSU than against Nebraska.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* Very good depth. Good d-line. Not great.
DE 9 ZACH HARRISON (6-6, 272, Jr., Lewis Center, Ohio).
+ Strip sack key turning point in victory over Minnesota on opening night.
* Averages 2.7 QB pressures per game.
* Good, tall, rangy, athletic. Good d-end, but not a Bosa type of guy or a Chase Young type. Good one. Not as good as Michigan’s d-ends.
DE 11 TYREKE SMITH (6-3, 265, Sr., Cleveland)
* Runs well sideline to sideline.
* Averages 4 QB pressures per game. Best on the team.
+ Good sack vs Nebraska late in the first half. Set up to the LT with a high-speed head-and-shoulder shimmy, then transitioned to a bull rush at the junction point. LT knocked off balance. Smith disengage, sack. Quality individual pass rush right there.
+ Sack late in the 1H against Penn State resulting in a scoop and score and 17-7 lead vs PSU. It was part of a six-man rush.
DE 8 JAVONTAE JEAN-BAPTISE (6-5, 255, Jr., Spring Valley, NY)
* 1.5 sacks on the year. 3 QB hurries.
* Looks great getting off the bus. Decent player.
DE 33 Jack Sawyer (6-4, 250, Fr., Pickerington, Ohio)
+ Pretty strong with the bull rush for a sack vs Nebraka.
* Young guy, very good future for him. Former No. 1 player in Ohio.
DT 92 HASKELL GARRETT (6-2, 300, Sr., Las Vegas)
* Suffered leg injury at Maryland on Oct. 9.
* 6 TFLs
* Three sacks vs Akron
* 6.5 career sacks.
* CBS Sports All-America last year.
* Played 28 snaps against Purdue.
* Was an All-America candidate this year. I didn’t think he was all that good against Oregon. Now trying to coe back from mid-season injury.
DT 6 Taron Vincent (6-2, 305, Jr., Baltimore, Md.0
- Doesn’t anchor well vs double teams. Allowed movement to the C/LG vs Nebraska on a first quarter run vs Nebraska.
+ TFL on third-and-2 early in the Nebraska game, with a one-gap swim after two-gapping on all the previous plays.
- Got stalemated by Nebraska LG 63 an inside zone for about 6 yards in the 2Q. Gave up a half yard and didn’t disengage very well.
DT 86 Jerron Cage (6-2, 305, Sr., Cincinnati)
* Can be disruptive when one-gapping.
DT 52 Antwuan Jackson, 6-2, 300, Sr., Ellenwood, Ga.
- Gave up a yard of movement to Nebraska’s RG on a down block on an inside zone early in the game, gain of 5 for the tailback.
DT 91 Tyleik Williams (6-3, 315, Fr., Manassas, Va.)
* Had two sacks and six tackles against Akron.
* Hasn’t done much of late. Some suspect he has hit a freshman wall, but he looks like a star of the future and could rebound with big plays at any moment.
LINEBACKERS
* Were not good against Oregon. Have come a long way since then.
WLB 3 TERADJA MITCHELL (6-2, 239, Sr., Virginia Beach)
* Hard charger. Denicos Allen-type, but taller.
* Team-high 4.5 TFLs.
- Looked a little stiff on a third-and-long stunt rush vs Nebraska in the first half. Had a chance to get to the QB untouched but QB Martinez faked him to the ground.
MLB 30 CODY SIMON (6-2, 233, Soph., Jersey City, NJ)
* Quick feet when reading and reacting.
* Looked like a catcher when running sideline to sideline, not winning collisions in the 1Q against Nebraska. Catching and trying to olé blocks instead of defeating them.
* Second on team in tackles. But only 2 TFLs. 1 sack.
LB 22 STEELE CHAMBERS (6-1, 225, Soph., Roswell, Ga.)
* Former RB.
* INT late in the Nebraska game.
- Missed a tackle on a 9-yard run at Nebraska on a counter gap play.
* 3.5 TFLs on the year. 1 sack.
LB 35 Tommy Eichenberg (6-2, 235, Soph., Cleveland)
* Fifth on the team in tackles as a back-up LB.
* They play a lot of second-stringers. Not much dropoff.
* 3 TFLs.
BULLET SLOT LB/S
CS 14 RONNIE HICKMAN (6-1, 205, Soph., Wayne NJ)
* 82 tackles leads the team.
* 1 TFL, 1 sack.
* Two INTs.
* Pick six vs Akron.
* He’s the slot CB/LB type of guy. Darius Snow role.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
CB/S 12 LATHAN RANSOM (6-1, 205, Soph., Tucson, Ariz.)
* Serves as the nickel/slot. Listed as a safety
- Struggled against Nebraska, getting beat for two big plays, one for a 75-yard TD. Both plays, he was being used as a cover safety in the slot, like a slot cornerback. So what can Michigan State do about this? If you catch OSU in man-to-man at pre-snap (they won’t disguise it), and get Jayden Reed on him (No. 1 vs No. 12 in the slot), go Naperville playground on his ass. Thorne and Reed don’t even have to draw it up in the dirt. They just see something the same way and nod and do it.
CS 5 MARCUS WILLIAMSON (5-10, Sr., Westerville, Ohio/IMG Academy)
* Started all eight games last year after injuries plagued him earlier in his career.
* They put him in place of 12 Ransom in the fourth quarter against Nebraska, going with a pure nickel corner near the slot rather than a hybrid in the slot. Nebraska ran the ball against it for gains of 12, 9, 2, 17, 4 and 3 on consecutive plays.
+ Forced a fumble on a run blitz on the first OSU defensive play of the game against Penn State.
CB 29 DENZEL BURKE, 6-1, 192, Fr., Scottsdale, Ariz.
* Next great OSU DB.
* Has started every game.
* First true freshman to start season opener since Andy Katzenmoyer in 1996.
* 9 passes defenses, which ranks No. 20 in the country
+ Nebraska tried to test him deep in press coverage in the 2Q. He stacked the WR, good with hand fighting, had him covered, INC.
(CB 26 Cam Brown, 6-0, 190, Jr. , St. Louis)
* Has the second-best completion percentage-against in the nation.
* INT vs Penn State.
* Three career starts.
S 17 BRYSON SHAW (6-0, 195, Soph., Eldersburg, Md.)
* Shaky back-line defender as a tackler against Oregon and Nebraska.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Emeka Egbuka is the top returner in the country at 32.1. He doesn’t have a TD to inflate his average. He consistently excellent. His long for the year is 67 yards.
* Noah Ruggles, is 16-of-16 on field goals for OSU.
* Garrett Wilson 4.9 average on punt returns, but packs serious big play threat. Smith-Njigba has returned punts too.
* OSU only punts the ball 2.4 times per game, the second least in the country (trailing only Oklahoma).
* Ohio State’s net punter isn’t great. OSU ranks No. 88 in the country in net punting.
* Michigan State averages 48.2 yards per punt. Michigan State also leads the Big Ten in punt return average, thanks to two returns for TDs.
ADD IT ALL UP
Common logic dictates that Michigan State is going to have a miserable time in pass defense against this OSU passing attack. It just doesn’t seem do-able on paper, or on film.
However, I’m the last guy standing who thinks MSU’s pass defense can still be decent THIS YEAR. It might not show itself in this game. But realize that holding OSU under 350 yards passing is a good day. Quite a good day.
Do that and contain RB Henderson to fewer than 90 yards, and hold OSU to fewer than 130 yards rushing, and you’re right on course.
But in order to meet those marks, Michigan State will need to move and possess the ball, cover field position, run some clock.
Of course Michigan State will need to take care of the ball, rush the passer, protect the passer and all those things.
But if Michigan State can tackle on the catch, prevent big plays, contain the run and make this game decided in the red zone, then it has a chance. From there, Kenneth Walker III needs to be healthy and at full blast, and Payton Thorne has to go into hero mode in a way that we haven’t seen from him, but trust that it’s in there somewhere.
Ohio State is going to have to snap out of its red zone funk and improve its pass defense if its going to win the Big Ten. If they don’t, they’ll get beat by Michigan or Wisconsin if they keep playing the way they did against Nebraska and Penn State.
Maybe this is the part of the season where OSU hits another gear and takes its game up to National Championship contention. But they aren’t there right now.
Can Michigan State be the team that trips them up? Not with the pass defense we’ve seen from Michigan State to this point. The most likely scenario is OSU passing at will, rolling up 425-plus yards through the air, and win by the margin Vegas is expecting.
Michigan State needs pass defense to make the type of unexpected leap in quality during his practice week that the rest of the organization made from last January to September. That’s not impossible. MSU’s defensive back personnel is not bad. There have been flashes of competence. There are a lot of loose screws back there that can be tightened. Can Hazelton, Tucker and Barnett get them screwed tight? Can Michigan State get back to playing physical on defense as was the case in September and most of October? Can the pass rush wake back up?
Those things aren’t likely for Michigan State. But they are not impossible.
