P.S.
Some things I didn't get to in the Pre-Snap Read:
1. Obviously, if Michigan State can stop or contain the run, it leads to a negative domino effect for Michigan. Also, if Michigan State is able to stop the run AND play press man-to-man on the corners and thereby take away McNamara's short hitch passing to the sidelines (and sideline curls and comebacks that he usually throws against bailing CBs in cover-three or bailing cover-four), then Michigan State will have forced him to make more reads, hold the ball longer and maybe even throw the ball over the middle deeper than linebacker depth. He has not been able to do the latter with any success all season, and at times has made bad read INTs on the rare, rare occasion they've asked him to make reads and throws over the middle.
Thus, stopping the run not only limits Michigan's productivity and success, it puts McNamara in position to take more sacks and throw an interception or two, two things he has avoided all year due to Michigan's run game excellence.
Against Wisconsin, Michigan didn't run the ball well but they never really had to go to the air that much because Wisconsin couldn't do anything on offense. Michigan "snuck" a couple of big plays on a flea-flicker TD and that third-and-10 fluke deep ball that I went over in the Film Room video.
As for Michigan State playing tighter coverage at cornerback, this is something Michigan State has done more and more of as the season has gone along, as they Kimbrough and Ronald Williams have gotten their feet wet in the system and has first-time starters in college football. Michigan State played a lot of off coverage on the corners against Miami and WKU and quality/dangerous passing attacks, choosing to bend but not break, and then tighten up (with exotics) in the red zone.
Michigan's passing attack has not shown much deep ball explosiveness. Henning (3) has good acceleration, Johnson (6) has gotten deep once or twice but McNamara has not been accurate with the deep ball. He has hit Johnson on a couple of 12-yard outs to the wide side of the field (not an easy throw) against bailing corners vs Nebraska and Northwestern. I think at least one of those was on the third down. So don't bail the corners. Bailing corners is one of the easier reads for a QB with a good arm. Take that away, take the hitch away, make him attempt reads over the middle.
If you bail the corners a little bit early in the game, he might think they're going to bail all day, at which point you might use cloud coverage (squatting the CB in the flat rather than carrying with the WR deep) on a surprise basis to get an INT in the flat. Timing has to be right on that. There's a rock/paper/scissors element to that. The reason that might work against McNamara is because he's not great at reading thing, and hasn't had much experience in trying to read cloud or bail along the sidelines. He will throw it if it's obvious bail at pre-snap and early post-snap. So that's one reason to give him the sideline once in awhile. Or, like I said earlier, press all day and just take that away from him. Will be interesting to see what route Michigan State takes and on which down and distance.
McNamara's blind-faith throw to the flat against Wisconsin in the video I posted yesterday is an example of him playing pin the tail on the donkey with that throw. Might as well have had a blindfold. Didn't see the flat coverage man hovering over there. That could be an opportunity for another one of those Haladay interceptions, although I haven't seen Michigan run double slants much.
2. As for run defense, my GUESS is that Michigan's run game will wear down Michigan State and have more success early in the fourth quarter. I think Michigan State COULD stop/contain the run for large portions of the first and second quarter and into the third. Michigan State will stick with 5 DBs like Wisconsin did and try to buzz around and swarm and tackle with numbers while being out-sized on some of the collisions. Michigan State doesn't stop the run as well as Wisconsin, but Michigan State can hit Michigan back with offense unlike Wisconsin.
If Michigan is indeed able to start having expanded success with the run in the fourth quarter, the question at that point is what's the score? Is Michigan up 13-10 like they were at Wisconsin, or is Michigan down 21-10 because Michigan State has blasted them with some big plays on offense? That would rattle Michigan's world, and Michigan wouldn't be able to stay as patiently with the ground game.
At that point, could or would Michigan go with McCarthy at QB? I think an Alabama Tua Tagovailoa mid-game replacement job is entirely possible in this scenario. McCarthy has been like an 80 pct run QB when he has played this year, but he has looked pretty decent with some throws in brief opportunities. He hit a deep ball against Wisconsin and looked a lot better in that facet that McNamara has. McCarthy has legit good running ability. Not quite Martinez, but pretty good. A notch better than Lewerke, I would say.
3. As for MSU's pass rush, which leads the Big Ten in sacks and pressures, an inordinate amount of MSU's pressures come from the defensive tackle positions. MSU's offensive tackles are pretty good at pass pro. But there are questions inside with RG Filaga and LG (77, Keegan, if he plays).
MSU's QB hurries (according to PFF)
1. Panasiuk 32
2. Slade (D-tackle) 19
3. Barrow (D-tackle) 14
4. Jordan 12
5. Pietrowski 10
By comparison:
Michigan's QB hurries
1. Hutchinson 21
2. Ojabo 10
3. Hinton (D-tackle) 8
4. Smith (D-tackle) 5
* No one else with more than 4.
That's a lot of heavy pressure for Slade and Barrow. MSU's pressure comes from the inside. McNamara has decent scrambling ability, but they rarely (if ever) move the pocket with him. This is a guy who plays unsettled to begin with. If you can push the pocket on him, he could really go off the rails.
***
Path to victory
1. Contain the run and stop the run in the red zone.
2. Be productive through the air on first down.
3. Your cartoons must work, via misdirection passing or some well-timed and well-designed screens. K-9 in the pass game could be something we've not witnessed to this point.
4. Roll the dice with more press coverage on the corners. They will try to go deep against it here and there but they have not shown much capability in that area. If you play press, you are taking away McNamara's hitch pacifiers.
5. Of course, take care of the ball. No negative plays in special teams. Michigan blocked a punt last week and Michigan State had a punt tipped against Indiana.
* Can Michigan State contain/stop the run? You'll find out when I find out. Keeping Michigan under 175 yards rushing will be difficult. Michigan State coming off the bye week will help in the physicality of run defense.
vs DTs
Some things I didn't get to in the Pre-Snap Read:
1. Obviously, if Michigan State can stop or contain the run, it leads to a negative domino effect for Michigan. Also, if Michigan State is able to stop the run AND play press man-to-man on the corners and thereby take away McNamara's short hitch passing to the sidelines (and sideline curls and comebacks that he usually throws against bailing CBs in cover-three or bailing cover-four), then Michigan State will have forced him to make more reads, hold the ball longer and maybe even throw the ball over the middle deeper than linebacker depth. He has not been able to do the latter with any success all season, and at times has made bad read INTs on the rare, rare occasion they've asked him to make reads and throws over the middle.
Thus, stopping the run not only limits Michigan's productivity and success, it puts McNamara in position to take more sacks and throw an interception or two, two things he has avoided all year due to Michigan's run game excellence.
Against Wisconsin, Michigan didn't run the ball well but they never really had to go to the air that much because Wisconsin couldn't do anything on offense. Michigan "snuck" a couple of big plays on a flea-flicker TD and that third-and-10 fluke deep ball that I went over in the Film Room video.
As for Michigan State playing tighter coverage at cornerback, this is something Michigan State has done more and more of as the season has gone along, as they Kimbrough and Ronald Williams have gotten their feet wet in the system and has first-time starters in college football. Michigan State played a lot of off coverage on the corners against Miami and WKU and quality/dangerous passing attacks, choosing to bend but not break, and then tighten up (with exotics) in the red zone.
Michigan's passing attack has not shown much deep ball explosiveness. Henning (3) has good acceleration, Johnson (6) has gotten deep once or twice but McNamara has not been accurate with the deep ball. He has hit Johnson on a couple of 12-yard outs to the wide side of the field (not an easy throw) against bailing corners vs Nebraska and Northwestern. I think at least one of those was on the third down. So don't bail the corners. Bailing corners is one of the easier reads for a QB with a good arm. Take that away, take the hitch away, make him attempt reads over the middle.
If you bail the corners a little bit early in the game, he might think they're going to bail all day, at which point you might use cloud coverage (squatting the CB in the flat rather than carrying with the WR deep) on a surprise basis to get an INT in the flat. Timing has to be right on that. There's a rock/paper/scissors element to that. The reason that might work against McNamara is because he's not great at reading thing, and hasn't had much experience in trying to read cloud or bail along the sidelines. He will throw it if it's obvious bail at pre-snap and early post-snap. So that's one reason to give him the sideline once in awhile. Or, like I said earlier, press all day and just take that away from him. Will be interesting to see what route Michigan State takes and on which down and distance.
McNamara's blind-faith throw to the flat against Wisconsin in the video I posted yesterday is an example of him playing pin the tail on the donkey with that throw. Might as well have had a blindfold. Didn't see the flat coverage man hovering over there. That could be an opportunity for another one of those Haladay interceptions, although I haven't seen Michigan run double slants much.
2. As for run defense, my GUESS is that Michigan's run game will wear down Michigan State and have more success early in the fourth quarter. I think Michigan State COULD stop/contain the run for large portions of the first and second quarter and into the third. Michigan State will stick with 5 DBs like Wisconsin did and try to buzz around and swarm and tackle with numbers while being out-sized on some of the collisions. Michigan State doesn't stop the run as well as Wisconsin, but Michigan State can hit Michigan back with offense unlike Wisconsin.
If Michigan is indeed able to start having expanded success with the run in the fourth quarter, the question at that point is what's the score? Is Michigan up 13-10 like they were at Wisconsin, or is Michigan down 21-10 because Michigan State has blasted them with some big plays on offense? That would rattle Michigan's world, and Michigan wouldn't be able to stay as patiently with the ground game.
At that point, could or would Michigan go with McCarthy at QB? I think an Alabama Tua Tagovailoa mid-game replacement job is entirely possible in this scenario. McCarthy has been like an 80 pct run QB when he has played this year, but he has looked pretty decent with some throws in brief opportunities. He hit a deep ball against Wisconsin and looked a lot better in that facet that McNamara has. McCarthy has legit good running ability. Not quite Martinez, but pretty good. A notch better than Lewerke, I would say.
3. As for MSU's pass rush, which leads the Big Ten in sacks and pressures, an inordinate amount of MSU's pressures come from the defensive tackle positions. MSU's offensive tackles are pretty good at pass pro. But there are questions inside with RG Filaga and LG (77, Keegan, if he plays).
MSU's QB hurries (according to PFF)
1. Panasiuk 32
2. Slade (D-tackle) 19
3. Barrow (D-tackle) 14
4. Jordan 12
5. Pietrowski 10
By comparison:
Michigan's QB hurries
1. Hutchinson 21
2. Ojabo 10
3. Hinton (D-tackle) 8
4. Smith (D-tackle) 5
* No one else with more than 4.
That's a lot of heavy pressure for Slade and Barrow. MSU's pressure comes from the inside. McNamara has decent scrambling ability, but they rarely (if ever) move the pocket with him. This is a guy who plays unsettled to begin with. If you can push the pocket on him, he could really go off the rails.
***
Path to victory
1. Contain the run and stop the run in the red zone.
2. Be productive through the air on first down.
3. Your cartoons must work, via misdirection passing or some well-timed and well-designed screens. K-9 in the pass game could be something we've not witnessed to this point.
4. Roll the dice with more press coverage on the corners. They will try to go deep against it here and there but they have not shown much capability in that area. If you play press, you are taking away McNamara's hitch pacifiers.
5. Of course, take care of the ball. No negative plays in special teams. Michigan blocked a punt last week and Michigan State had a punt tipped against Indiana.
* Can Michigan State contain/stop the run? You'll find out when I find out. Keeping Michigan under 175 yards rushing will be difficult. Michigan State coming off the bye week will help in the physicality of run defense.
vs DTs
